Clprenz
Member
What is your EPS estimate? What I have come up with is in the $.88-$1 does that sound right?
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Just a back of the napkin calcuation:
$485m rev
$95m gross profit
$40m Opex
$10m interest expense
($5m) forex gain
$45m Total Expenses
$50m Operating Income
$5m Net Income Tax
$5m Minority Interest (not sure about this item, but I am using Q2 number here).
$40m Net Income
46m diluted shares
$0.87 EPS
If you take away that $5m minority interest then you are talking about $0.99 EPS.
It is impossible to tell since Tax expense is hard to predict as well as other items.
I think that the $0.87 EPS number should be a close estimate. I would not be surprised to see a lower number, because sometimes when companies see that they are going to blow out the consensus, they might want to accelerate some expenses in order to make meeting next quarter's (or some quarter far in the future) numbers a lot easier.
Clprenz
Member
Thanks for that! I understand and I like you point below. That's exactly what I came up with. Another scenerio is: They blow out earnings and stock goes to
$37 and they do a secondary offering to take advantage of the gain. I will expect $.65-$.75 just so it will be either inline or beat my expectations. I've made a cool 300% profit since I found your article on Investnaire! Your awesome! Keep up the posts, and I'll keep making money!!!!
Would be any reason they have more than the guided revenue or margin? Tesla in April said 4,750 and it was actually 4,900 etc. any ideas?
$37 and they do a secondary offering to take advantage of the gain. I will expect $.65-$.75 just so it will be either inline or beat my expectations. I've made a cool 300% profit since I found your article on Investnaire! Your awesome! Keep up the posts, and I'll keep making money!!!!
Would be any reason they have more than the guided revenue or margin? Tesla in April said 4,750 and it was actually 4,900 etc. any ideas?
Thanks for that! I understand and I like you point below. That's exactly what I came up with. Another scenerio is: They blow out earnings and stock goes to
$37 and they do a secondary offering to take advantage of the gain. I will expect $.65-$.75 just so it will be either inline or beat my expectations. I've made a cool 300% profit since I found your article on Investnaire! Your awesome! Keep up the posts, and I'll keep making money!!!!
Would be any reason they have more than the guided revenue or margin? Tesla in April said 4,750 and it was actually 4,900 etc. any ideas?
SOL pre-announced in Q2 and they raised GM from 3%-5% to 5%-6% (on July 16, a full two weeks after Q2 was finished). Then actual results came in at 7.3%, which they had to have some clue that it would be higher than 6%.
When you pre-announce bad results, you give all the bad news in it. When you pre-announce good results, you only give half the news. We will find out what the other half is tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see 20.X% gross margin even though they guided 18%-20%. $500m revenue is not out of the question either.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I like the premarket announce, I don't have to listen to the CC and wait until the next morning to see how the market reacts, aka I don't have to lose sleep at night due to giddy anticipation or dread of what is to come, haha. Instead I get to lose sleep the night before having no idea what to expect
Kidding, things are a lot less stressful now than when I was 100% in TSLA. You can't put a cost benefit on that.
I need a pop on CSIQ so I can eventually pick up some more Tesla before it runs away upward
But have a feeling CSIQ will outrun Tesla medium term if earnings is great. I am hopeful this puppy will run another 50% mid term. That would bring them close to a $2 Billion market cap. Am cautiously optimistic.I need a pop on CSIQ so I can eventually pick up some more Tesla before it runs away upward
Agreed. I am a little 'gun shy' with ER reports as most recently have led to decrease in stock values.....Hopefully CSIQ will be different. I know that you, like me, got out of most of your TSLA position with the announcement of the third fire. I bought back in a little today and will watch closely for other opportunities to add more. I feel that solar does have better short/medium term potential for gains than TSLA.
Good luck.
Yea, +1. I do look into the companies he posts and take full responsibility for my choices on where I put money, but I very much appreciate his efforts. When someone that's clearly put in as much work as he does and takes the time to post as regularly as he does to share, then I'm sure as heck listening!
Good luck to you too. Am gonna have a glass of wine now. Last time it brought us good luck with TSLA, remember?? ;-)
krla
Member
Great results and they raised a lot of cash in the quarter.
EPS came in at 0.56 because they had written off bad debt allowance and then increased allowance for doubtful accounts for a combined $7.7m or $0.17/share, which I expected that they might accelerate losses to take advantage of great quarter. Also tax expense came in a little higher than what I used by another $7.
Very impressive results, especially the $152m in operating cash flow (equal to SPWR's goal for entire year, which was exceeded) in Q3 alone.
They lowered net debt by $200m or 40% to only $310m, and increased cash by $140m to $680m.
Very strong financial position compared to peers, and project pipeline is expanding. Looks like another long term winner.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Thanks sleepy for all your research and sharing it. You were spot on.
And thanks Dr. Qu (even though you probably don't know of us) for the remarkable vision and team you have put together.
Reading over the report seeing the truly amazing growth, I can't imagine how the market could have any thing less than a stellar reaction. They really hit a grand slam.
And thanks Dr. Qu (even though you probably don't know of us) for the remarkable vision and team you have put together.
Reading over the report seeing the truly amazing growth, I can't imagine how the market could have any thing less than a stellar reaction. They really hit a grand slam.
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