Andrea James interview 8/8/16

[DaveT]

I'll be interviewing Andrea James (former TSLA analyst) via Google Hangouts. Feel free to check it out live or you can view the recorded version afterwards. Also, would love to hear if you have any questions you'd like to ask Andrea. Just reply to this thread if you've got any ideas/questions.

Here's the info for the upcoming interview w/Andrea James.
Date: August 8, 2016
Time: 1pm PT
Video link: Andrea James (former TSLA analyst) interview by DaveT - Google+

A few words about Andrea James:

Andrea James was Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Dougherty & Company from 2010-2016. She was best known for being a sharp analyst covering Tesla who understood the potential Tesla had as a company from early on. In this Google Hangout interview, DaveT (editor of teslaweekly.com) discusses with Andrea what life was like as a TSLA analyst and her current view of Tesla. Join us LIVE.

From Andrea's blog (Why I won’t be on the Tesla call tonight | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching): "Being a Wall Street stock analyst on Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares from 2010 to 2016 has greatly enriched my life and understanding of the world. I took pride in the depth of my analysis and research — I always started from a position of skepticism and asking, “Where could Tesla go wrong?” But early on, it became clear that the bigger question — the world changing one — was, “Where could Tesla go right?” My firm gave me the opportunity to call the truth on Tesla as I see it. And we get to that truth by analyzing the following three questions, at their simplest: Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?""

Questions so far:

MitchJi - "I'd like to know if part of the reason she changed jobs is because (she mentioned that she could now start investing in TSLA) is because she thinks she's going to be able to make close to as much or more by being able to invest in TSLA."

AustinEV:
1) How do you feel about Elon's SMP2? It includes sweeping projections of overhauling huge industries.
2) Is Tesla at risk of overreaching?
3) Assuming that the model 3 launch happens roughly according to plan, what if any revaluation do you expect the market to give TSLA? Do you think skepticism will rule all the way to model 3 contributing to financials?
4) How do you value Tesla Energy?
5) How do you envision the capital plan? Tesla will need new car factories. How do you see the timing of factories and capital raises?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Ask her if she could share some of her prior models for estimating tsla and maybe some of her analysis notes would love to read them.

Also, her take on SCTY and merger

 

[30seconds]

How are other auto companies ensuring battery supply will be available for them in 2019-2020 when we have been told to expect EVs from almost all manufacturers?

 

[Fallenone]

In light of the massive reservation number, and increased production rate, how much leverage do you think Tesla now has over suppliers to lower the cost of parts that goes into COGS in the short term (before Model 3 mass production)?

 

[Crowded Mind]

I would like to hear her take on the possibility of a short squeeze being caused by share recalls to vote on the SCTY merger, as well as her take on TSLA energy and any analysis she may have done on that side of the business.

Thanks again for organizing, Dave. This is really awesome.

 

[Jroper]

Considering Elon mentioned on the Q2 call that Tesla’s growth is about 100% and, without M3 CAPEX, the company would already be profitable. How can we value Tesla’s growth?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

SMP2 was pretty sweeping. Is there anything big for Tesla Motors not in there?
Have Tesla's implementation failures, particularly with the X given you pause as to its ability to deliver a successful Model 3 or integrated solar battery product?

 

[Cosmacelf]

vis a vis your new job as an executive coach, what management mistakes and/or positive innovations do you see Tesla doing right now? The reason I ask is that from the outside looking in, it looks like Elon has not delegated enough decision making, and is continuing to be involved in many aspects of the company's operation which can lead to paralysis as people are always wondering if they'll be overruled by Elon. The Model X problems, both from a design perspective and manufacturing execution seem to be symptoms of management problems.

 

[DaveT]

What were your go-to sources in getting information and news about Tesla?

As an analyst were you able to visit the factory any time you wanted? Were analysts invited to any special events besides analyst conference calls?

While you were an analyst how many times did you test drive the car, and what kind of impact did that have on your view of Tesla?

 

[aznt1217]

What were your go-to sources in getting information and news about Tesla?

As an analyst were you able to visit the factory any time you wanted? Were analysts invited to any special events besides analyst conference calls?

While you were an analyst how many times did you test drive the car, and what kind of impact did that have on your view of Tesla?

Dave I'm fairly certain I can answer the last one for you. She has only driven the Model X. I repeat, only driven the Model X. I'm basing this on her Youtube channel video of her test drive.

 

[ggies07]

Dave I'm fairly certain I can answer the last one for you. She has only driven the Model X. I repeat, only driven the Model X. I'm basing this on her Youtube channel video of her test drive.

I got the same feeling from watching the video as well. Crazy she never test drove one of the earlier Model S

 

[GoTslaGo]

I got the same feeling from watching the video as well. Crazy she never test drove one of the earlier Model S

Maybe she wanted to remain unbiased about the drive quality to be a good analyst. IIRC, Didn't she change jobs after driving the X, or do I have my facts wrong again?

 

[austinEV]

A new question: Will you go out on a date with Austin EV?

 

[AudubonB]

From Audubon:
"Once upon a not so very long time ago, Wall St analysts grouped themselves by the sectors they covered into what were called splinter groups. Were you a member of the Automotive Analysts' Splinter Group and if so, how did your colleagues treat you in your being a champion of Tesla Motors? Did you ever get the impression any of your colleagues had a mindset along the lines of "Well, if only I weren't beholden to {F / GM / NSANY etc } I might portray TSLA in a different light."? Can you envision some kind of a sea change in their collective attitudes and if so, what might be the proximal cause/s?"

 

[aznt1217]

Would like to know her opinion as to why Tesla is so divisive among Wall Street Analysts and the media in general.

 

[JRP3]

Is that really a mystery?

 

[GoTslaGo]

A new question: Will you go out on a date with Austin EV?

I'm rooting for you!

 

[DaveT]

Call for final questions before the interview. Can't promise I'll ask all of them but will definitely consider.

 

[Ocelot]

Maybe she wanted to remain unbiased about the drive quality to be a good analyst. IIRC, Didn't she change jobs after driving the X, or do I have my facts wrong again?

In my opinion a good analyst would do the exact opposite. I was shocked to see her reaction (presuming of course she had already driven an X or S , or at the very least was intimately knowledgeable about the vehicle). I do realize however that this was also part of my anive assumption that people would be familiar with things they invest in/talk about. I know she has a lot of fans around these parts, but I feel that is because she has been/was/is very Pro-Tesla. I am not sure if she has called any other companies correctly, or what her overall ROI is. In my humble opinion, "analysts: all have some type of slant..where their own interests are first, and their clients...well somewhere down the line, or not even on the line (ie. 2008). That's why I come here!

 

[SteveG3]

some Tesla "news" effects not only investors but consumers. there have been repeated incidents where an event leads to an avalanche of misreporting, and a Tesla/Elon response leads to a second avalanche of misreporting the response (none of it flattering to Tesla). if Elon were listening to this interview, would you have any suggestions as to how Tesla can reduce the risk of material damage to the brand based on rampant incorrect inaccurate stories in the media?