AP2 - FSD transfer questions...

[Knightshade]

I think you're confused a bit.

You are mistaken.

When AP2 came out, FSD was an option for $3K. Think of it as pre-paying for a feature that will eventually arrive in the future. So you were pre-paying a cheap price for something that may arrive in about 2 to 5 years.

So far so good...

Elon then future out that he needs a smaller upgrade to AP2, so it was now AP2.5. Again you were prepaying $3K for it.

Not quite. You were prepaying for FSD, not a specific HW version.

Nobody who already had AP2, and also had FSD, got upgraded to 2.5.

There was (up until dashcam) no functional difference between the two (and still isn't any for FSD purposes of course)

The primary addition to 2.5 was redundancy they felt would be useful for FSD- it didn't do anything for EAP (and still doesn't as far as anyone knows)

And every Model 3 every built had 2.5 from the factory anyway.

Though Tesla did say if they HAD gotten FSD working with 2.5 (but not 2) then FSD owners would've gotten a 2.5 upgrade for free. Just like they WILL get a 3 upgrade free.

Remember, there was no FSD at this point. He will still working on EAP, so by if you had EAP or had pre-paid for FSD, you saw no difference.

Correct. No matter if you had HW2 or 2.5.

Fast Forward to today. Elon has already removed FSD from the web site for new vehicles being configured (it's not even an off menu options any more).

This, too, is wrong.

It's still an off menu option- indeed folks have mentioned buying it fairly recently in this very forum.

the price of FSD has already increase to $5K for those who see it on their My Tesla site.

So you know it's still offered for sale, right after saying it wasn't an option anymore?

Don't think I'm the confused one

Again there is no functionality right now for FSD, but it's coming soon (possibly within 12 months). And by functionality what Tesla means, is the 1st feature set of FSD..

This is correct (and also something I've said myself so it's weird you think there's a reason to repeat it...)

So what this does mean.

If you have purchase it already, then when it arrives you will also get the AP3 computer upgrade for free. When that happens, we have to presume that the 1st feature of the FSD features will arrive with that hardware upgrade.

That is, again, literally what I've already said in previous posts.

For those who have not purchase it yet, you have two options

(1) Do nothing, which means you won't get any of the FSD features, period.
(2) Purchase it at whatever price you see on My Tesla for existing owners, or spec out a new Tesla with FSD. Many speculate that it will be $$$ because you're no longer pre-ordering it at a discount, but you're purchasing it now that it's 1st feature is available of the FSD feature-set.

Which is also literally what I've already said.

The only thing I'm confused about is why you think I'm confused when your own reply has either been incorrect info, or repeating the correct info I already posted.

So, to your original question of "why would anyone pay to add HW3 without getting FSD".

People like me paid the $3K for our FSD when we bought our vehicle because it is the pre-order price which will be much cheaper than when it arrives. You could have said that I could have taken that $3K invested it somewhere, and made 25% or more, and then paid the full price for FSD when Elon release it (maybe around $7K or $10K). I choose to NOT to do that. Paying it up front was better for me.

Great.

I did too.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with my question though

I was addressing the person who said they did not want FSD but still wanted to know about paying to get HW3 added

That's why I asked why anyone would want that.

Since it would provide them no functional benefit whatsoever for their money.

So again- someone was confused- but it appears to have been you in misunderstanding the context of my post.

Regardless when someone purchases FSD (either pre-order it way in advance, or when it becomes available), you'll get the AP3 hardware.

Right. Which, again, I said already before your own post.

 

[zanary]

FSD is still available off menu (or at least it was as of February 2nd). We've ordered it on two cars in the past two months.

A friend who order a Model S P100D on the 20th was told it was no longer an off-menu option. Interesting.

 

[Tam]

...no longer an off-menu option...

Historically, with very few exceptions, Tesla wants owners to trade-in their cars rather than taking owners' money to do a hardware upgrade.

Owners who did not pay for early optional navigation were told to trade in theirs if they then wanted just to pay more after delivery to get optional navigation.

Even when Tesla boasted and had a live demo that battery swapping took less time than filling up a gas tank but it still wants owners to trade in a whole car for a physically higher capacity battery (not over-the-air ones, physical ones 60->75/85/90/100...)

So it sounds like as if Tesla promotes a whole car trade in for new hardware rather than charging owners a fee for a hardware upgrade.

It's so mysterious on how Tesla has been selling FSD.

On one hand, it says AP3 will be arriving in this year and FSD features are near at the end of this year but on the other hand, it suddenly took the sales to off menu.

The logical thing for sales to do is to make FSD sales more visible and more easy at this point.

So, if off menu option is also discontinued, it's then not about encouraging FSD sales but about suppressing it.

Why?

It might be consistent with what Tesla has been practicing: It hates charging owners for a hardware upgrade as it wants owners to trade in a whole car instead.

That means it's only logical that now that it knows FSD is near, it wants to limit the hardware upgrade numbers to as few as possible even though Tesla has boasted the computer swapping is a very easy thing to do!

 

[Knightshade]

They took it off the menu because:

If you buy it now it's $3000, and you get a HW3 computer free.

If you buy it later it will cost you more for Tesla to supply the same hardware.

The "we promise to upgrade your HW for free if you already bought FSD and need an upgrade to make FSD work" thing is why they'd prefer you do NOT buy it now...but still can if you ask.

Many speculate once FSD features are actively available the price will be higher.

Certainly if they actually offered "real" level 5 FSD they could triple the price and still sell as many as they could make (though the chances of true L5 this year are incredibly near 0)- but even if it's just L3 or 4 on divided highways and L2 elsewhere that'd be a significantly more advanced offering than anybody else has available.

 

[Biggyniner]

Also, if you are buying private party, the original owner can show you the window sticker or Tesla configuration sheet.

Good to know, more than likely I will purchase from a dealer, possibly even used from the Tesla website - which does actually list options purchased with it. If I end up purchasing from Vroom or Carvana I will have Tesla check the VIN.

I appreciate the info.

 

[zanary]

Here is my thoughts on the situation for FSD for 2019.

- S3X coming off the line by April 15th will start to have the new AP3 hardware (remember, employees should be testing it in secret right now according to those emails from Elon). This is hardware only and nothing else.
- A few weeks after April 15th, we'll see a software update that will activate one or two of the features that make up the FSD feature set if you have the AP3 hardware. Marginal enhancements for EAP as that is nearly feature complete, just needs more 9's of accuracy (using Elon's terms) which means more learning.
- Owners of AP2 and AP2.5 who have already pre-paid the $3K, or $4K or $5K FSD price will start to get emails to schedule Tesla Mobile Service to come and swap out the computer to the new AP3 (it's located right behind the glovebox, and if you remove that small piece at the end you can actually see it there).
- When AP3 hardware is installed, the technician can push out the latest software which includes one or two of the features that make up the FSD feature set.
- Shortly thereafter, Tesla will begin to offer FSD and AP3 hardware upgrade to current owners for a huge premium and also make it an option at time of config. I speculate it should be around $10K (and this is above the EAP price)...

My reasoning for the $10K
- Starting to get cost recovery for his AI/NN. Initially cost recover followed by profit at a healthy margin.
- Starting to get cost recovery for the new AP3 hardware. Initially cost recover followed by profit at a healthy margin.

The probability for the above scheduled and dates = 50%
The probability of the above scheduled and dates pushed out by 2 months = 30%
The probability of the above scheduled and date pushed out by 6 months = 20%

Not everyone will agree with me, but realistically this is one possibly scenario.

Note: For my estimate of $10K for FSD after it becomes available. You gotta pay to play

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Right- in which case they get HW3 for free once they pay for FSD.

Thus my original question remains- why would anyone pay to add HW3 without getting FSD?

Since he explicitly said HW3 was only needed for FSD, and was not needed for anything else (including EAP)


I mean- maybe he's lying- but he probably has more info than we do.

I don't think Tesla will allow a person to add HW3 without getting FSD. The reason I believe that is I don't believe in FSD. So what's really being sold is the capabilities of HW3.

Elon has said a lot of things that haven't turned out true. Even short term things like Sentry mode on AP2+ which wasn't correct.

Obviously I can be completely wrong as I have no internal sources.

I'm bullish on HW3
I'm cynical about Tesla continuing development on HW2/HW2.5 once HW3 is released.
I think you need a lot more detection capabilities to have a truly useful EAP system. Things like sign detection (speed limits, etc), and pot hole detection.

So I'm of the opinion to jump ship to HW3 if you can because HW2/HW2.5 aint going anywhere. If one is okay with what EAP does today then by all means stay on the ship.

What I'm mostly interested in is whether Tesla introduces FSD like features (sign detection to start with) on new Tesla Model 3's where the owner has only paid for EAP. And, whether Tesla rebrands EAP/FSD at the launch of HW3 so there won't be separate EAP and FSD packages.

 

[Tam]

...I don't think Tesla will allow a person to add HW3 without getting FSD....

There's no harm in selling HW3 even when owners refuse to believe in FSD as long as they are willing to pay the money for just the upgraded hardware.

That would keep the company profitable and workers financially secured.

...speed limits...

Been recognized in AP1. So speed limit sign recognition should be caught up in AP2 soon.

...pot hole detection...

Land Rober and Ford have announced their systems for several years but I am not sure whether they have been commercially available on the roads.

...FSD like features (sign detection to start with) on new Tesla Model 3's where the owner has only paid for EAP...

EAP has been promoted as on-ramp to off-ramp operation so I don't see why Tesla will grant it non-speed limit traffic signals/signs (traffic lights, stop signs...)

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think Tesla will allow a person to add HW3 without getting FSD. The reason I believe that is I don't believe in FSD. So what's really being sold is the capabilities of HW3.

Elon has said a lot of things that haven't turned out true. Even short term things like Sentry mode on AP2+ which wasn't correct.

Obviously I can be completely wrong as I have no internal sources.

I'm bullish on HW3
I'm cynical about Tesla continuing development on HW2/HW2.5 once HW3 is released.
I think you need a lot more detection capabilities to have a truly useful EAP system. Things like sign detection (speed limits, etc), and pot hole detection.

So I'm of the opinion to jump ship to HW3 if you can because HW2/HW2.5 aint going anywhere. If one is okay with what EAP does today then by all means stay on the ship.

What I'm mostly interested in is whether Tesla introduces FSD like features (sign detection to start with) on new Tesla Model 3's where the owner has only paid for EAP. And, whether Tesla rebrands EAP/FSD at the launch of HW3 so there won't be separate EAP and FSD packages.

My expectation is that EAP will remain at roughly current HW2.5 capabilities (it's feature complete other than not requiring prompting for lane changes and maybe a more advanced summon) but will continue to get better at the existing features for a while- and that's it.

MAYBE EAP gets highway speed limit signs- though more likely they can just allow HW3 cars to "fix" their not-so-great database by reading them and feeding the data back to Tesla, and then letting 2.x cars benefit from the data updates.

And that FSD starting with HW3 will offer, say, Level 3 on divided highways (essentially a better EAP) and also start offering a few ADDED features like recognizing red lights, significantly more advanced summon, etc).

If you buy a new HW3-from-factory car I'd bet you can still decide to "only" buy EAP (because why wouldn't Tesla take your 5k for that if you want, since take rate will still be higher than if they "only" offered a 10k FSD option) but you'll basically just be running the HW2.5 NN on the HW3 computer at that point.

What I don't expect is that EAP- labeled as such- gets anything new/better with HW3.


Because if it does all the EAP buyers will be screaming they deserve free upgrades since they PAID for EAP.

 

[MXWing]

How would it be useless?

There seems to be a subset of Tesla owners like yourself who see EAP and FSD as being very distinct things. That somehow we can seemingly transition from EAP driving to FSD without a large amount of effort, and time between the two.

Who also believe that there won't be features outside of EAP/FSD that will require HW3. But, that belief doesn't mesh with the messiness of reality.

The HW2 owners are already suffering the fate of missing out because the Tesla SW doesn't support dash cam and sentry mode on their vehicles. So they're missing out on a pretty big part of Tesla ownership.

I'm firmly in the subset of Tesla owners who believe Tesla will cease any further development effort on HW2/HW2.5, and they'll move onto HW3. Where they'll use HW3 to add functionality that gets us closer to FSD.

Now that doesn't mean that I advocate paying $5K to get FSD now to hedge your bets. On the contrary I think HW2/HW2.5 are dead in the water, and Tesla will entice you to upgrade so wait for that. The whole $8K to $10K is fear mongering by people who don't realize how difficult actual FSD is.

On a Model 3 the upgrade to HW3 willl be painless, and Tesla will need the cash. So they'll gladly price the upgrade within the $3K to $5K range to get people to upgrade.

We've seen plenty examples already that Tesla doesn't force the upgrade price on people. Like the EAP upgrade price isn't $7K, but it's $5500 if done after a AP trial. The $7K price is to invoke fear into people to try to get them to buy it at purchase.

If it was me I'd put the limit at $3500 for the HW3 upgrade. Until Tesla pulled off at least L3 in a released firmware version I wouldn't pay anything more.

The amount of FUD from long time members here is a bit crazy. @Knightshade is pretty on point so not sure why he is being argued with.

EAP and FSD is distinct. Not seemlingly thought to be different. They ARE different.

Did you know Tesla has a software version specifically for HW2 owners who purchased AP but didn’t upgrade to EAP? That probably affects like 100 cars in the whole fleet but it’s tracked.

EAP features are pretty close to being done. HW3 is not needed for EAP completion.

Given that EAP runs on HW2/2.5 it’s no problem if they cease development and just did bug fixes. Features like dash cam and sentry mode are bonuses. They are not related to FSD. Do I want them on my HW2 Model X? Sure I do but less than $1000 gets you a superior after market solution for that issue.

Lastly it’s really odd you use the word fear to replace “incentivazation”.

Cash now is always better than cash later. American Express scares you to pay sooner to get a rebate.

Magazines scare you to lock in longer terms to get cheaper issues.

Some insurance companies charge you less if you pay your premium in 10 installments vs 12.

Are they FEAR MONGERING?

Or...

Trying to improve their cash flows?

Come on man.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

There's no harm in selling HW3 even when owners refuse to believe in FSD as long as they are willing to pay the money for just the upgraded hardware.

That would keep the company profitable and workers financially secured.

Been recognized in AP1. So speed limit sign recognition should be caught up in AP2 soon.

EAP has been promoted as on-ramp to off-ramp operation so I don't see why Tesla will grant it non-speed limit traffic signals/signs (traffic lights, stop signs...)

The biggest issue I see Tesla having is they have all these HW2.5 cars that were claimed as being FSD driving capable. This was whether or not the buyer purchased the FSD package. There is no technical reason why a HW2.5 to HW3 swap wouldn't be really simple in the Model 3. From what we know all the other components are the same.

Only a small percentage of the Model 3 owners bought the FSD option so there is money sitting on the table. So what's the best way to get the money? What is there to offer them to convince them to upgrade, and the best way to price it?

The problem is we have this massive gap between EAP, and FSD. We're stuck in this in-between area where it's better than a typical L2 system, but it's not FSD as described by Elon.

So how does Tesla sell something as FSD when it's not FSD?

The only thing I see giving them is the journey towards self driving, and this would be features we'd normally see as FSD features.

I really only see one of two possibilities playing out.

That Tesla either redefines EAP/FSD to something else. Maybe simply an advanced autopilot system. Or they sell L2 as EAP, and they sell L3 as FSD. I'd be down for that. Something tangible with realistic goals.

Or Tesla doubles down on the entire EAP/FSD thing where it's the same separation that exist now.

I don't believe in FSD and I feel like it's a complete con job. So maybe it's simply wishful thinking that they'll just dump it, and realize the journey is going to be a lot slower. Hopefully they'll only promise L3, and that will be what people who get the HW3 will get in terms of SW capability. They have to have some kind of deliverable when selling to people who passed on it the first time around.

As to sign recognition the most important thing to EAP, and manually driving is Speed limit signs. I don't believe HW2/HW2.5 will ever get this at least not directly. I could certainly see them building a database using HW3 vehicles, but they could have already built a database using HW1 vehicles (unless it was against MobileEyes usage rules or something like that).

Tesla has also been a strong proponent of safety so I don't see why Tesla would withhold sign detection (like stop sign) from HW3 vehicles. Sure it might not enable stopping for the stopped sign, but it certainly should have a warning.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

My expectation is that EAP will remain at roughly current HW2.5 capabilities (it's feature complete other than not requiring prompting for lane changes and maybe a more advanced summon) but will continue to get better at the existing features for a while- and that's it.

MAYBE EAP gets highway speed limit signs- though more likely they can just allow HW3 cars to "fix" their not-so-great database by reading them and feeding the data back to Tesla, and then letting 2.x cars benefit from the data updates.

And that FSD starting with HW3 will offer, say, Level 3 on divided highways (essentially a better EAP) and also start offering a few ADDED features like recognizing red lights, significantly more advanced summon, etc).

If you buy a new HW3-from-factory car I'd bet you can still decide to "only" buy EAP (because why wouldn't Tesla take your 5k for that if you want, since take rate will still be higher than if they "only" offered a 10k FSD option) but you'll basically just be running the HW2.5 NN on the HW3 computer at that point.

What I don't expect is that EAP- labeled as such- gets anything new/better with HW3.


Because if it does all the EAP buyers will be screaming they deserve free upgrades since they PAID for EAP.

Sure adding features to EAP could upset existing customers that feel like they deserve a free upgrade because they paid for EAP. But, it's not like Tesla really cares about screaming HW2 owners who are mad that they don't get Dash Cam or Sentry Mode. Tesla also doesn't care about HW2 owners who are mad that they don't have same radar or wiring redundancy that HW2.5 has.

Tesla simply moves on. There is a lot that HW3 can bring to even owners who don't have EAP. Like an even better Sentry Mode. Or debris detection and avoidance (could potentially be a safety feature).

There are also enhancements under the hood that this faster hardware brings. Namely to the speed, and accuracy of the neural networks. There are also known issues with the rearview backup camera dropping out, and HW3 could potentially fix it (assuming the problem is with the ISP within the SOC).

When I look at EAP/NoA as it exist today I don't feel like it really works well. Why doesn't it work well? For all sorts of reasons. I don't expect it to magically get better with HW3, but HW3 can improve upon certain elements of it. So I'd be really disappointed if EAP didn't work better on HW3 than it does on HW2/HW2.5.

It seems bizarre to me to hold back on a systems capabilities when competitors are adding capabilities at much lower price point than EAP.

I expect it to be like the transition from AP1 to AP2, but a heck of a lot smoother. Where AP2 will be quickly enter maintenance mode, and EAP on HW3 will start at the same level and will grow. That doesn't mean HW2/HW2.5 won't benefit from the enhancements made to shared EAP/FSD code. They'll benefit from better maps (which hopefully will have better speed limit information), and things unrelated to the neural nets.

The EAP features/performance will be set to be competitive in the market place more than they'll be set to make old customer happy.

If FSD is still going to be sold as an add-on to EAP it needs to have some kind of deliverable. Right now FSD is a bit of a laughing stock. Having something tangible like L3 with it would go a long ways in making it something people will be willing to pay more money for.

The biggest problem by far with EAP is the nags. Competitors are moving away from nags by moving away from Torque Sensors in the steering wheel to eye sensors that track engagement. In a Model 3 the only thing that can get rid of the nags is either the Interior facing camera is used to track engagement (not sure if it has a good view), or L3 driving (which would leapfrog it). But, they can't make it so much more expensive or people will simply pass on it.

Even L3 is going to be difficult for Tesla because what Tesla has right now for NoA is far short of what's needed for L3. Everything from ghost cars in the 360 degree visualization, to how it handles the lane changes in traffic.

So I see EAP having to get better before turning on the L3 switch. That's why I believe if there is difference between EAP and FSD it will be only a SW switch. For L3 you have to have things like debris detection. For EAP you don't, but by not having it might mean the user is so uncomfortable with it that they don't bother paying for the SW switch (assuming its an HW3 vehicle).

 

[J1mbo]

They took it off the menu because:

If you buy it now it's $3000, and you get a HW3 computer free.

If you buy it later it will cost you more for Tesla to supply the same hardware.

Or: they took it off the menu because HW3 is now being installed in all cars? The plan they discussed in the IR call last Autumn was for HW3 to happen round about now.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Or: they took it off the menu because HW3 is now being installed in all cars? The plan they discussed in the IR call last Autumn was for HW3 to happen round about now.

Historically the FSD option wasn't tied to hardware. It only got tied to hardware when we found out that FSD wasn't possible with the existing hardware, and that FSD owners would be upgraded for free.

So now it's being tied with hardware.

But, it's also now off the menu.

So no one really knows what's going to happen with FSD. There are those that predict it will come back on the menu as a SW feature, and those like me who wish it would be redefined to something tangible with specific deliverables. Or gone complete where it's replaced with a single option that's more competitive with cars coming out soon.

No one really knows for sure what's going to happen till April when HW3 is released. I really hope Tesla straightens the mess out.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The amount of FUD from long time members here is a bit crazy. @Knightshade is pretty on point so not sure why he is being argued with.

EAP and FSD is distinct. Not seemlingly thought to be different. They ARE different.

Did you know Tesla has a software version specifically for HW2 owners who purchased AP but didn’t upgrade to EAP? That probably affects like 100 cars in the whole fleet but it’s tracked.

EAP features are pretty close to being done. HW3 is not needed for EAP completion.

Given that EAP runs on HW2/2.5 it’s no problem if they cease development and just did bug fixes. Features like dash cam and sentry mode are bonuses. They are not related to FSD. Do I want them on my HW2 Model X? Sure I do but less than $1000 gets you a superior after market solution for that issue.

Lastly it’s really odd you use the word fear to replace “incentivazation”.

Cash now is always better than cash later. American Express scares you to pay sooner to get a rebate.

Magazines scare you to lock in longer terms to get cheaper issues.

Some insurance companies charge you less if you pay your premium in 10 installments vs 12.

Are they FEAR MONGERING?

Or...

Trying to improve their cash flows?

Come on man.

FUD? This entire thread is a speculation tread.

Where we're using what we think is going to happen to predict the future. I'm basing some of what I said on past behaviors by Tesla so if any of it is wrong then feel free to say. But, I believe it's accurate.

As to EAP and FSD being distinct there are multiple ways of thinking about it. Knightshade seems to have a background in SW or at least a good understanding of it. So he's a fun person to converse with.

I simply have the view that internally the codebase (on HW3) is the same for EAP/FSD, and the only difference would be a SW switch to enable FSD features.

This is important because it would mean that EAP would essentially be a subset of FSD. Where any enhancements made to accomplish FSD were still in there. Things like debris detection, etc. If you're reading a book while the car is driving (in FSD mode) you certainly wouldn't want it running over debris on the freeway.

As to how FSD is going to be sold come April its entirely speculative.

I'm going to rank these in things that I think are most likely to least likely, and not what I wish for.

Do they reintroduce the FSD option with roughly the same price/description as before? They can do this because they'd no longer have to upgrade cars FSD owners for free as they'll already be getting HW3.
Do they not do anything? and simply wait for the first FSD features to reintroduce the FSD option.
Do they drop the entire FSD option for good, and simply replace it with a single advanced autopilot package?
Do they replace the FSD option with an L3 capabilities option? That way it has a very real deliverable.

They'll have an opportunity in April when HW3 is released to straighten up the mess that is the FSD option. FSD is an absolute joke in the industry. It's viewed as nothing more than snake oil. Outside of TMC everyone just laughs at Elon and his "predictions".

Apparently it's hard to sell people on something that no one has accomplished despite billions of dollars being spent. Who knew?

As a fan of Tesla of course I'm going to want it straightened up even though I don't actually think it's likely. Elon keeps doubling down on FSD predictions.

As to how EAP is being priced I simply don't believe its an honorable way to price it. I don't know why you used examples of things with KNOWN deliverables with something that has an unknown deliverable.

EAP is an unknown as to whether it will accomplish what's promised.

Smart Summon is coming, but not here yet.
NoA doesn't work well. It's getting better, but has a long ways to go.
Auto-lane changes don't work well, and fails too much.
False braking is still a problem.

If I'm a perspective buyer I'm going to look at the $5K price, and I'm going to ask myself if it's worth it. The money sensible people will say only pay for something if you're okay with what it does today. Don't buy on some SW promise in the future as it might not come true. That's hard with EAP because it doesn't do a whole lot for the money in its current form. It's only the future form that makes it worth the $5K.

But, Tesla uses an exaggerated future price to convince people to buy today in it's incomplete form. It's not just that, but the $7K price is a lie. It says its subject to change at the very time it has changed in that it's only $5500 if you buy the trial. But, are they honest about it on the website? No.

The other highly potential lie they still go with is the "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

Now sure on this one they could offer FSD upgrades for all AP2/AP2.5 people, but will they? Verygreen speculates that they won't.

Will they accomplish FSD with that hardware? Probably not.

 

[Knightshade]

Sure adding features to EAP could upset existing customers that feel like they deserve a free upgrade because they paid for EAP. But, it's not like Tesla really cares about screaming HW2 owners who are mad that they don't get Dash Cam or Sentry Mode.

But neither dashcam nor sentry mode are, or ever were, part of EAP, so that's irrelevant.

They sure cared about screaming P owners and their $5000 refund though- and there's WAY fewer of those than there are people who bought EAP.

Tesla also doesn't care about HW2 owners who are mad that they don't have same radar or wiring redundancy that HW2.5 has.

They do if they bought FSD. They've explicitly said (when 2.5 came out) that anyone with 2, and EAP, who needs a hardware upgrade for FSD, will get it... free.

When I look at EAP/NoA as it exist today I don't feel like it really works well. Why doesn't it work well? For all sorts of reasons. I don't expect it to magically get better with HW3, but HW3 can improve upon certain elements of it.

Sure.

It's just a ton easier and cleaner if Tesla restricts those improvements to some L3 version of FSD and calls it FSD instead of EAP.

Honestly the "easiest" thing overall is just announce HW3 cars can ONLY get FSD, not EAP... I just don't know if the economics of that work well for Tesla.... (the take rate on EAP is very high, well north of 70% last numbers I saw... would 'forcing' FSD as the only option be worth it to them to avoid needing to upgrade EAP only 2.x customers who didn't buy it?)

It seems bizarre to me to hold back on a systems capabilities when competitors are adding capabilities at much lower price point than EAP.

Are they?

I don't mean "announcing" I mean delivering?

Every pro comparison I've seen on driving aid systems still has EAP being well ahead of anyone else (with the narrow exception of Caddys SuperCruise- currently only available on a tiny fraction of the roads EAP works on, and only on one model of Caddy, which they're discontinuing)

I expect it to be like the transition from AP1 to AP2, but a heck of a lot smoother.

In that case they will NOT offer EAP for HW3.

I mean, AP (HW1) and EAP (HW2.x) were explicitly different options and feature sets after all.

If FSD is still going to be sold as an add-on to EAP it needs to have some kind of deliverable. Right now FSD is a bit of a laughing stock. Having something tangible like L3 with it would go a long ways in making it something people will be willing to pay more money for.

Well, Tesla has repeatedly said the first FSD only features come with HW3, so we'll know soonish....

The biggest problem by far with EAP is the nags. Competitors are moving away from nags by moving away from Torque Sensors in the steering wheel to eye sensors that track engagement. In a Model 3 the only thing that can get rid of the nags is either the Interior facing camera is used to track engagement (not sure if it has a good view), or L3 driving (which would leapfrog it). But, they can't make it so much more expensive or people will simply pass on it.

Honestly I think they could price FSD at $10,000 (total, not on top of EAP cost) if they offered real L3 on divided highways, and they'd sell a ton more of it than they do now at 3 pre-purchase. L3 on highways is a huge feature. Being able to "officially" safely read or check your email or whatever while driving would be huge.

Even L3 is going to be difficult for Tesla because what Tesla has right now for NoA is far short of what's needed for L3. Everything from ghost cars in the 360 degree visualization, to how it handles the lane changes in traffic.

The ghost cars are in large part (I believe) because it can't process all cameras at full frames, so it has to guess a lot on the data it's unable to process.... HW3 explicitly fixes that.

And more confidence in where surrounding cars are should significantly increase the ability to change lanes aggressively.

Or: they took it off the menu because HW3 is now being installed in all cars? The plan they discussed in the IR call last Autumn was for HW3 to happen round about now.

But they took it off the menu well before HW3 was being installed in new cars (which we still have had no confirmation they're doing as of today)

 

[zanary]

Or: they took it off the menu because HW3 is now being installed in all cars? The plan they discussed in the IR call last Autumn was for HW3 to happen round about now.

That what I'm thinking. I think he said that as early as March we'll see cars off the line (S3X) coming with AP3... I'm still hopeful, as that means that FSD owners can get our a a few months after that date... It's exciting time to be owning FSD...

 

[wcorey]

For those that haven't already seen this, you'll likely enjoy!!!
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

 

[zanary]

Honestly the "easiest" thing overall is just announce HW3 cars can ONLY get FSD, not EAP... I just don't know if the economics of that work well for Tesla.... (the take rate on EAP is very high, well north of 70% last numbers I saw... would 'forcing' FSD as the only option be worth it to them to avoid needing to upgrade EAP only 2.x customers who didn't buy it?)

Honestly I think they could price FSD at $10,000 (total, not on top of EAP cost) if they offered real L3 on divided highways, and they'd sell a ton more of it than they do now at 3 pre-purchase. L3 on highways is a huge feature. Being able to "officially" safely read or check your email or whatever while driving would be huge.

(1) FSD does requires AP3 (he needs full resolution, full frame rate for the 8 cameras for FSD, he said so himself last week)./
(2) If you don't plan on purchasing FSD, you won't get a free upgrade to AP3. New cars off the line will get it.
(3) If you want AP3, to get it just purchase FSD. Think of it this way, purchase FSD and get the AP3 hardware for free.

(4) I'm still thinking EAP will be the current costs, while FSD will be an additional $10K, double of it's current $5K after the fact price.

 

[Knightshade]

(1) FSD does requires AP3 (he needs full resolution, full frame rate for the 8 cameras for FSD, he said so himself last week)./
(2) If you don't plan on purchasing FSD, you won't get a free upgrade to AP3. New cars off the line will get it.
(3) If you want AP3, to get it just purchase FSD. Think of it this way, purchase FSD and get the AP3 hardware for free.

Is there a reason you keep replying to my posts by repeating the things I, myself, already previously said in my posts? It's kinda weird like you didn't actually read the content of the posts you're replying to and are just seeing certain keywords or something.