AP2 - FSD transfer questions...

[zanary]

For those that haven't already seen this, you'll likely enjoy!!!
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

Yup That's the podcast. We're on our way to FSD this year with AP3 for those who have pre-order it.

My advise - If you can purchase it from your My Tesla account now for the $5K, it might be be a game a gamble, but at this price it's a steal as he's confident that it will arrive by end of year, the price will double or more... just for FSD that is.

I continue to believe that 2019 is the year of FSD which needs the AP3 computer (EAP does not need AP3 computer). EAP is nearly feature complete!

 

[Tam]

...Is there a reason you keep replying to my posts by repeating the things I, myself, already previously said in my posts? It's kinda weird like you didn't actually read the content of the posts you're replying to and are just seeing certain keywords or something.

In FSD world, redundancy is a good thing

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Honestly I think they could price FSD at $10,000 (total, not on top of EAP cost) if they offered real L3 on divided highways, and they'd sell a ton more of it than they do now at 3 pre-purchase. L3 on highways is a huge feature. Being able to "officially" safely read or check your email or whatever while driving would be huge.

This is exactly what I hope they'll do. This would clean things up nicely, and keep them ahead of competitors.

Right now EAP isn't competitive in terms of convenience with systems that use eye tracking instead of the torque sensor. Supercruise was the first system, and I fully expect GM to use it on other systems. There are also the EyeQ4 systems from MobileEye to watch out for. The first of these systems is in the new BMW X5. It's limited to 37mph with their extended traffic jam assist package. I'm still waiting for some reviews of how well this works along with how the lane-steering is beyond 37mph.
Mobileye - Most Impressive Self Driving Demo Yet (CES 2019)

FSD is too far away to effectively compete with really good L2 systems coming on the market so Tesla has to step up their game to keep their lead.

When April comes around it will be 2.5 years from the time that EAP/FSD was announced. So it's time for Tesla to consider changing how the systems are sold especially as we have no FSD features to date.

The best way is to simply sell the system as FSD, and only FSD. Where they have a very clean concise game plan to accomplish L3 at the very least. People didn't get the FSD option because there was no promised deliverable. The economics can work for Tesla if Elon doesn't appear to be selling snake oil.

Having FSD only allows them to freely extend EAP until it morphs into L3 and beyond.

$10K total is not a bad price. It's only $2K higher than what I paid where I figured I'd have L3 within 2-3 years.

Even if a person doesn't get that package then they'll still get safety elements provided by it. They'll also get things like advanced dashcam, sentry mode, etc. These aren't part of a package, but come with a Model 3. I imagine that they'll also get TACC to stay competitive. I can get some pretty cheap cars these days that come with adaptive cruise control. It's time for that to be included.

The other reason that I want Tesla to dump the EAP/FSD separation (for new vehicles) is L2 driving has always been a stepping stone. This is especially important considering that it's been revealed that the NHTSA study on it was deeply flawed.

Tesla also publishes safety information every quarter, and the way to dramatically make that better is to improve Autopilot as a system, and not get bogged down on what is EAP versus what is FSD.

So all new cars will simply have the FSD option, and won't have an EAP option. I'll continue to hate on the name, but I don't really care about the name.

All Model 3 owners will be allowed to upgrade for a price (probably $5K to $7K).

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

They sure cared about screaming P owners and their $5000 refund though- and there's WAY fewer of those than there are people who bought EAP.

This was largely because of Fred of Electrek.

I've seen Tesla capitulate enough to know it's always a good strategy to complain, but Tesla/Elon has never moved so fast as they did with the refund in response to Fred's article about it.

Tesla did make people give up free supercharging (if they had it) to get the $5K. I did the math on it, and exchanged free supercharging for the $5K.

 

[Knightshade]

This was largely because of Fred of Electrek.

I've seen Tesla capitulate enough to know it's always a good strategy to complain, but Tesla/Elon has never moved so fast as they did with the refund in response to Fred's article about it.

Tesla did make people give up free supercharging (if they had it) to get the $5K. I did the math on it, and exchanged free supercharging for the $5K.

Sure- but there's a tremendously larger number of people who paid for EAP than paid for a model 3 P....so Fred or no Fred that'd be a huge amount of their customer base screaming at them if they made any EAP features exclusive to HW3.

Much easier to just label anything "new" as FSD and avoid the issue entirely.

 

[Knightshade]

This is exactly what I hope they'll do. This would clean things up nicely, and keep them ahead of competitors.

Right now EAP isn't competitive in terms of convenience with systems that use eye tracking instead of the torque sensor. Supercruise was the first system, and I fully expect GM to use it on other systems. There are also the EyeQ4 systems from MobileEye to watch out for. The first of these systems is in the new BMW X5. It's limited to 37mph with their extended traffic jam assist package. I'm still waiting for some reviews of how well this works along with how the lane-steering is beyond 37mph.
Mobileye - Most Impressive Self Driving Demo Yet (CES 2019)

FSD is too far away to effectively compete with really good L2 systems coming on the market so Tesla has to step up their game to keep their lead.

So...systems either vastly limited in scope, or not even available yet, are something FSD (whose first features are allegedly coming potentially this quarter) is too far away to compete with?

Not sure the math really works on that.

When April comes around it will be 2.5 years from the time that EAP/FSD was announced. So it's time for Tesla to consider changing how the systems are sold especially as we have no FSD features to date.

Yes, and likely by April EAP will be "done"

It's already feature-complete other than not requiring you to confirm lane changes (and arguably some summon improvements).

Anything else you just label FSD and call it a day- and they've explicitly said the first FSD-only features will arrive with HW3, and that HW3 is arriving by April- so no problem.

I imagine that they'll also get TACC to stay competitive. I can get some pretty cheap cars these days that come with adaptive cruise control. It's time for that to be included.

You can- but mostly they suck.

The loaner Lexus I had last year didn't work below 30 mph for example- freaking useless compared to Teslas offering in traffic.

An Infiniti I drove with it also sucked, the closest "gap" was so big I was perpetually being cut off.


I understand this is another "the competition is coming!" thing- but it's really not here for the most part- certainly not for free on most models. Will it be in another year or two? Probably.

But if Tesla can offer HW3/FSD with significantly more advanced features that takes care of itself.

So all new cars will simply have the FSD option, and won't have an EAP option. I'll continue to hate on the name, but I don't really care about the name.

All Model 3 owners will be allowed to upgrade for a price (probably $5K to $7K).

it's certainly possible.... I think Tesla is probably leaving some $ on the table that way (versus continuing to offer existing EAP running the 2.x NN on HW3 hardware- and anything better is FSD)

 

[Elmexiken]

So someone posted a podcast Elon did last week which centered around this threads focus and everyone continues to speculate, when he gives specific timeframes???? Did ANYONE actually listen to it???? I was half waiting for someone to reference it, but instead everyone in here keeps spewing a bunch of hooie that makes no sense.

 

[zanary]

So someone posted a podcast Elon did last week which centered around this threads focus and everyone continues to speculate, when he gives specific timeframes???? Did ANYONE actually listen to it???? I was half waiting for someone to reference it, but instead everyone in here keeps spewing a bunch of hooie that makes no sense.

I think everyone did as that podcast (On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast) was also mentioned on other podcast (RTL for example found here: Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 186: Elon Talks Full Self-Driving). The timeframe (spring of 2019) was also mentioned during the investor call two quarters ago.

I think the problem is

(1) Many still believe in Elon time, so they have a hard time believing when he says the Spring 2019 timeframe for the hardware, and feature complete by end of the calendar year. I think people feels burned by his previous failed date commitments.
(2) Context. Many people believe that FSD is a single feature vs an entire feature set similar to how EAP is a feature set. They have a hard time believing that FSD will arrive by end of year. I think context here is important as Elon described FSD pretty well in the same podcast. While he will release FSD in multiple updates throughout FY19 once the AP3 hardware arrives, it's features will be complete by end of 2019, and throughout 2020 we'll see the level of accuracy (ie, 9's) increase. As the 9's increase, we'll see it move from 2 to 3 to 4, and eventually when he has as many 9's as is possible, then we'll be in 5.

I think many will be surprised when the first S3X arrive from the factory with the AP3 hardware installed in early Spring. That will be the beginning of believing that FSD is nearly here!

 

[Knightshade]

So someone posted a podcast Elon did last week which centered around this threads focus and everyone continues to speculate, when he gives specific timeframes???? Did ANYONE actually listen to it???? I was half waiting for someone to reference it, but instead everyone in here keeps spewing a bunch of hooie that makes no sense.

What makes no sense is expecting complete working FSD by end of the year.

Remember Elon also promised an FSD cross-country drive by end of 2017.

Never happened.

Then same promise for 2018.

Never happened.

Now it's promised end of 2019.


I don't think anybody doubts HW3 is coming this year (likely in the next couple of months even)

I don't think anyone doubts there will be some new features they will label as part of FSD this year (likely about the same time the official HW3 is coming in cars announcement)

But that F in FSD does not mean what Elon seems to have convinced you it means in that context, and there's a roughly 0% chance we'll get real "full" self driving, as in level 5 car will drive across the country entirely by itself as promised years ago FSD car this year.

 

[wcorey]

FSD is too far away to effectively compete with really good L2 systems coming on the market so Tesla has to step up their game to keep their lead.

End of 2019 is too far away? Musk predicts in 22 months you could read a book between point A and point B, verse 10 months before you have to keep torque on the steering wheel. That'll work well enough for me.

 

[wcorey]

as we have no FSD features to date.

Strictly speaking...untrue! FSD enabled cars will display a red line and chime when something is in your blind spot. I was trying hard not to laugh during that typing, but it does qualify for an FSD only feature. I have been trying every which way to get someone knowledgeable to describe where EAP leaves off and FSD picks up. So far crickets. The V3 hardware will be free to FSD owners and between $5k and $10k for all others as, my understanding is they'd have to upgrade to FSD to get it. TWT.

 

[wcorey]

I think many will be surprised when the first S3X arrive from the factory with the AP3 hardware installed in early Spring. That will be the beginning of believing that FSD is nearly here!

I suspect once cars roll off the assembly line with the V3 chip EAP and FSD won't be options, they'll be features with the built in $10k+ price added. I don't seen how they can charge existing owners an additional $3k over EAP yet give it to new purchasers. Perhaps give it to new purchasers but make EAP a $12K option. In other words, it'll be part of the price called either EAP or FSD. Each car will have the chip but it will cost more than the existing owners paid in order to use it.

 

[Knightshade]

Strictly speaking...untrue! FSD enabled cars will display a red line and chime when something is in your blind spot.

So will cars who didn't buy FSD at all.

Literally every model 3 (and all S/X models made in the last 2+ years) ever made does that regardless of any options you pick.

So strictly speaking, no, there's literally no features added or enabled today by paying for FSD.

That will supposedly change once HW3 is shipping.

I was trying hard not to laugh during that typing, but it does qualify for an FSD only feature. I have been trying every which way to get someone knowledgeable to describe where EAP leaves off and FSD picks up. So far crickets.

If by crickets you mean specific, detailed, answers including those that Tesla themselves have stated, sure....otherwise not so much.

EAPs features have been clearly defined for years. Apart from not requiring lane change confirmation (and arguably some summon improvements) it's feature complete today.

End of 2019 is too far away? Musk predicts in 22 months you could read a book between point A and point B, verse 10 months before you have to keep torque on the steering wheel.

As pointed out- he has consistently been wrong in such predictions in the past, pretty much 100% of the time.


See again the "cross country unaided" drive a Tesla was supposed to make by end of 2017.

Then by end of 2018.

And still isn't on the calendar to actually happen.

 

[Elmexiken]

I think everyone did as that podcast (On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast) was also mentioned on other podcast (RTL for example found here: Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 186: Elon Talks Full Self-Driving). The timeframe (spring of 2019) was also mentioned during the investor call two quarters ago.

I think the problem is

(1) Many still believe in Elon time, so they have a hard time believing when he says the Spring 2019 timeframe for the hardware, and feature complete by end of the calendar year. I think people feels burned by his previous failed date commitments.
(2) Context. Many people believe that FSD is a single feature vs an entire feature set similar to how EAP is a feature set. They have a hard time believing that FSD will arrive by end of year. I think context here is important as Elon described FSD pretty well in the same podcast. While he will release FSD in multiple updates throughout FY19 once the AP3 hardware arrives, it's features will be complete by end of 2019, and throughout 2020 we'll see the level of accuracy (ie, 9's) increase. As the 9's increase, we'll see it move from 2 to 3 to 4, and eventually when he has as many 9's as is possible, then we'll be in 5.

I think many will be surprised when the first S3X arrive from the factory with the AP3 hardware installed in early Spring. That will be the beginning of believing that FSD is nearly here!

Don't think you listened to the podcast very well then.... He very clearly, in no uncertain terms, said that FSD will be feature complete by the end of the year. That's it. He then SPECIFICALLY mentions that after that, they need to get it to level that is accurate enough to be approved for consumer use. He never mentions releasing it in multiple updates, he never mentions he'd start after HW3 is out. Might it happen that way???? Sure. I personally don't think so. At that point, you're just speculating.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

End of 2019 is too far away? Musk predicts in 22 months you could read a book between point A and point B, verse 10 months before you have to keep torque on the steering wheel. That'll work well enough for me.

I was using the SAE L5 definition when I said it's going to be too far away.

And, that's why they needed something more tangible as a goal. So that would be L3, and that's when we can read a book.

My prediction for that is two years away. I'm concerned that it might not happen (it depends on how well NoA improves), and whether the rear facing cameras are good enough that rear radar isnt needed. It also depends heavily on the rear camera blackout issue being fixed with HW3. But, at least its plausible.

 

[Elmexiken]

What makes no sense is expecting complete working FSD by end of the year.

Remember Elon also promised an FSD cross-country drive by end of 2017.

Never happened.

Then same promise for 2018.

Never happened.

Now it's promised end of 2019.


I don't think anybody doubts HW3 is coming this year (likely in the next couple of months even)

I don't think anyone doubts there will be some new features they will label as part of FSD this year (likely about the same time the official HW3 is coming in cars announcement)

But that F in FSD does not mean what Elon seems to have convinced you it means in that context, and there's a roughly 0% chance we'll get real "full" self driving, as in level 5 car will drive across the country entirely by itself as promised years ago FSD car this year.

I think you're missing the point here. Completely working and ready and approved to release to consumers are 2 distinct things. He made ZERO mention of the latter, in fact QUITE its opposite, he has NO IDEA when it will get approved, as his statements SPECIFICALLY stated a process: feature complete, then march of nines, next regulatory approval.

I don't get where you extrapolate from that statement that new features are coming this year, or that you GET ANYTHING this year. This isn't hard to comprehend....I don't get why people are having trouble with this.

 

[vickh]

What makes no sense is expecting complete working FSD by end of the year.

Remember Elon also promised an FSD cross-country drive by end of 2017.

Never happened.

Then same promise for 2018.

Never happened.

Now it's promised end of 2019.


I don't think anybody doubts HW3 is coming this year (likely in the next couple of months even)

I don't think anyone doubts there will be some new features they will label as part of FSD this year (likely about the same time the official HW3 is coming in cars announcement)


But that F in FSD does not mean what Elon seems to have convinced you it means in that context, and there's a roughly 0% chance we'll get real "full" self driving, as in level 5 car will drive across the country entirely by itself as promised years ago FSD car this year.

but but this time will be different

or maybe I should just be happy with AP1 for now then skip to AP3+ i the future

 

[Elmexiken]

I have typed out the transcript of the podcast that deals with this: (emphasis mine)

"Then also, for, in defining autonomy, or full self driving, I, I think we will be feature complete, full self driving, this year. Meaning the car will be able to, find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination, without an intervention. This year. I would say that I am certain of that. That is not a question mark.

However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean, now it works with 100% certainty, requiring no observation, perfectly. This is not the case. Once it is feature complete, then you sort of, kind of, the, march of nines. Like, how many nines of reliability do you want it to be? And then when do regulators agree that it, is that reliable? So, there's, feature complete for full self driving, this year, with certainty. This is something that we control, and I manage autopilot engineering directly, every week, in detail. So I'm certain of this. Then, when will regulators allow us even to have these features turned on with a human oversight? That is a variable which we have limited control over. Then its, when will regulators agree that these things can be done without human oversight? That is, another level beyond that.

So, these are externalities we don't quite control. And the conservatism of regulators varies a lot from one juridisction to another. My guess as to when we would think its safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year. Thats when I would think it would be most likely safe for that. I don't know when will regulators will agree."

Someone PLEASE tell me where in there does it mention, imply, or even HINT, that we will see features launch this year, or even being able to use ANYTHING before regulators approve it???? This isn't rocket science, guys.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't get where you extrapolate from that statement that new features are coming this year, or that you GET ANYTHING this year. This isn't hard to comprehend....I don't get why people are having trouble with this.

Probably because he has previously promised, explicitly, new features are coming this year for FSD

I think that's the reason.


Elon Musk on Twitter

Musk is asked when HW3 is coming, if all 2.x FSD-paid owners get it free..

Probably 4 to 6 months. Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost. It isn’t needed just for enhanced Autopilot.

and then another guy further asks "any idea when the first software update will be that has content exclusively for full self driving-optioned customers?"

Sorry, meant to say same timeframe as hardware

So that's probably why people think they will get new FSD features this year.

Elon Musk explicitly told them they would.

In fact, he's now late...again... on delivering in that 4-6 month timeline. I guess he did say "probably" at least.

Hope this clears up your confusion!

 

[wcorey]

He never mentions releasing it in multiple updates, he never mentions he'd start after HW3 is out.

He pretty much did state HW3 is a prereq. He said it wouldn't work without the new chip assembly. Further, it's been reported elsewhere for a few months now that the HW3 would start being installed on existing FSD owners, I think it was, this quarter. What is not clear is how those with EAP only will be able to get the upgraded hardware without buying FSD after the fact.