TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Article Worth A Read From 'The Fool'

Discussion in 'News' started by tigerbuny, Jun 28, 2015.

  1. Jim MacInnes

    Jim MacInnes Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    Michigan
    This is one of the best selling points for a long range EV

    Teslaenergy consumption data.jpeg
     
  2. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,791
    Location:
    California
    this chart from the article says it best.
    tesla-premium-sedans-market-share_large.JPG

    ICE manufacturers should take note.
     
  3. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    3,399
    Location:
    San Diego
    Good article. You know, just for fun, I listened to Tesla's 2011 1Q conference call last night. It was fascinating listening to Elon talk about the Model S about 15 months from first Model S deliveries. His predictions were friggin spot on. First delivery mid 2012. Check. Volume ramp up by beginning of 2013. Check. First international deliveries in 2013. Check.

    At the time of the CC, they had just started driving the alpha models. And that told them, and he told us on the CC, that the car wasn't only going to be the best EV, but the best car, in the world. And he was so right.

    At the time of the CC (May 2011) they only had 2,400 Model S reservations. I put in my reservation in late November 2012, and got number 5,8xx. Which are pitifully low numbers compared to what they actually sold in 2013 (20,000) and 2014 (33,000). Obviously the initial sales, and initial glowing reviews finally got to people and the orders started pouring in.

    And here we are starting the Model X launch with way, way more reservations (>20,000) than they had for the Model S pre-launch. Elon is telling us, and we should listen to him, that the Model X will be awesome. The Gigafactory is on schedule and Tesla just reiterated a late 2017 timeframe for Model 3. Things really are looking up for this car company.
     
  4. Spidy

    Spidy Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Location:
    Germany
    Except it's kinda stupid, because it is basically just looking at the price of the cars and not the features or purpose. In reality the E-Class and 5-Series are the real competitors in my opinion.
     
  5. Olle

    Olle Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2013
    Messages:
    333
    Location:
    Orlando, FL
    #6 Olle, Jun 29, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2015
    Why in reality are E-class and 5 series the real competitors, can you elaborate?


    If I may represent a typical S buyer then: was about to get a 911 for my 40 bday. that was around the time the S came out. I test drove it, totally fell in love and it replaced the 911 purchase, never looked back. Similar price range, but totally different set of features! Would I have bought a new 5er or E Klasse at the time? No. The S doubled as family car too and I got rid of my old Volvo and the Tesla thus ultimately displaced two car purchases.

    I hear similar stories from others too. It seems like Model S are for people who want something interesting or different. The same can be said for some of the other cars in the diagram.
    E class and 5 series are for mainstream, conventionalist thinkers, which is the exact opposite of the Model S customer.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,917
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    IMO this opinion is kinda stupid.

    Motley Fool is looking at price and size. All these cars are classified as Oberklasse in Europe.

    The main feature of Model S is uncomparable.

    What features and purpose are comparable in Model S,E Class and 5 Series that are distinct from S Class, Panamera,7 Series and A8?
     
  7. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    #8 sandpiper, Jun 29, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2015
    I don't buy that. I agree that the MS doesn't have some of the bells & whistles that the S-class or 7 series may have or some of the ostentatious "luxury". But if you want to know what the MS is competing with then ask the buyers what car they would have bought INSTEAD of the MS had the MS not existed. I doubt that many folks would say E class or 5 Series. There are a whole series of different "purposes" that buyers have for vehicles in this price range. But I suspect that a predominant one is the opportunity to drive something that is really unique and that stands a bit apart. An S or 7 accomplishes that as does a Tesla. An E or 5 does not.


    If somebody is so inclined it would make for an interesting poll. Personally I was thinking about a Porsche until a friend gave me a ride in a MS, after which point I didn't consider any other vehicle.
     
  8. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    3,399
    Location:
    San Diego
    There are many ways to slice and dice data. Calling a comparison of cars sales by price class "stupid" isn't very bright in itself. It is a one of many valid ways of comparing sales. If you'd like to use a different metric, go right ahead. The presented chart is still useful. Would be interesting to see that same comparison done by quarter going back a few years...
     
  9. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,267
    Location:
    California
    Okay then, let's pick a 'feature', shall we? I pick the 0-60 feature. Oops! Not fair? Okay, I pick the cargo space feature. Oops! Maybe third time will be the charm? I pick the center console with all associated firmware, user interface, etc., etc., Oops, again! Fuel economy? Passenger seating?
     
  10. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,475
    To put it the other way around, I was/am in the market for a car the size of an E- or 5-. The Model S is too big for what we like. We bought it because it is so much better. We would not have stepped up to S- or 7- series vehicles. Whereas I feel if I was in the market for those in the first place, the Model S would have been much more obvious competition.
     
  11. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    As you said there are many ways to compare, but all the others are subjective. Price is the only one quantifiable without opinions. Because of that, it is arguably the most useful.
     
  12. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2008
    Messages:
    2,052
    Location:
    Herndon, VA
    And if you look closer you will see that it is NOT pricing but number of units sold.
     
  13. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,352
    Location:
    Norway
    That's depend on the contexts where the comparisons is done. I have seen the same figure before (in other contexts) and was thinking that this was not the best/fairest comparisons to use. But in this context in this article it is absolutely the best/fairest way to make any comparisons.
     
  14. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    1,611
    Location:
    New York
    For those comparing a Model S to an E class or 5 series, would you please stop as you are making no sense. The only real competition for us was the S class. We absolutely did not care for the E class (or the 5 series). IMHO the E Class used to be more upscale and a better vehicle in the lineup than what it is today. If you go with any of the following attributes, it is the S class that competes more with a Model S.

    + Seating comfort for 5 adults
    + Large trunk space
    + Weight class
    + Exterior dimensions
    + Interior capacity
    + Epitome of technology for the auto manufacturer
     
  15. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2008
    Messages:
    2,052
    Location:
    Herndon, VA
    That chart did not come from the article. It came from Tesla. Elon used it in the most recent shareholders meeting.
     
  16. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    10,342
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    #17 ecarfan, Jun 29, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2015
    I was not even in the market looking for a new car, and I have never owned a car anywhere near the size of the S. But the S is so compelling and so clearly represents the future of the automobile that I just had to have one. So I sold my 1959 Porsche and my wife's Prius and bought an S. Never looked back. Then sold my Porsche Cayman to buy a Tesla Roadster to go 100% electric.

    People buy the S for many reasons, and some S owners have never owned a car in that price and size class. But comparing the Tesla S to the Mercedes S class is certainly valid.
     
  17. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    2,562
    The Audi A7/S7/RS7 is almost exactly the same dimensions in many ways and is the natural competitor. A tweener between the A6 and the A8. Similarly, the BMW lineup has the 6 series and Mercedes has the CLS which are also almost an exact competitive matches. And again, these are tweener between a smaller, higher sales volume sedan and the ultra-luxury high end sedan. These tweeners emphasize more sportiness over pure luxury and space.

    Part of this is the aerodynamics that help dictate the shape of the Model S hence the similarities to the tweener sport sedans.

    However, a lot of this comparison is relatively meaningless in the context of the reasons why people do these comparisons. Number one reason to do this is marketshare to help determine the addressable market for the Model S. I submit that the Model S draws buyers from a very wide net, far wider than any of these luxury Germany sedans have historically drawn. Many Model S purchasers would not have conceived buying a vehicle at this price range before the Model S and they did not truly cross shop a natural close ICE competitor. Buyers don't want to be ripped off, so the price had to be within the ballpark, but these German luxury sedans were often not the actual competitors. Many would have bought a Toyota Prius, a Honda Accord, a Porsche 911, or a Chevy Volt instead. This is very much like the Apple iPhone in 1997 - if you looked at the Nokia Symbian or Blackberry smartphone sales through 1996 and tried to project the Apple iPhone's addressable market in 2000 on that basis, you would not be faulted for the logic at the time, but you'd be very far off the mark. My youngest daughter's middle school class last year had 32 students. 28 had iPhones, 1 Android, 1 Windows Phone, 2 feature phones, none without a phone.

    The other reason this is relatively meaningless is the paucity of true competitors. Tesla Model S buyers are essentially forced into buying a Model S to have a vehicle with these characteristics. No one else offers anything that hits these marks at the same time. Every comparison with the Model S is doing a very big stretch. Even the upcoming long range models are very different vehicles than Tesla. The upcoming R8 e-tron isn't available in the U.S., will likely cost north of $200,000, seats 2, offers slower 0-60 than the P85D, will not overheat as quickly as Model S's, and has no real long distance supporting high power DC charging network. The i8, as with all PHEVs is a very different kind of vehicle where performance requires the ICE to be on and the tradeoffs of performance, range, and packaging are significantly different. Even Tesla thus far has not provided a range of options at this point. The Roadster is not under production and can't use the Supercharging network (yet). So until the Model X ships, we actually don't have a real understanding of the addressable market.

    Further, some use these comparisons to project the Model 3 - which is also difficult, other than to expect that Tesla will be production constrained for the foreseeable future.
     
  18. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2008
    Messages:
    2,052
    Location:
    Herndon, VA
    OK people .... several important points.

    1. This chart was taken from TESLA itself. Motley Fool just reused it. SO TESLA believes that these are its competitors not Motley Fool.

    2. Though the Model S buyers come from SEVERAL markets and E class and 5 series are of those. MOST buyers will come from S Class and 7 Series buyers and TESLA believes that too.

    3. These are NOT pricing numbers !! They are units sold.

    Conclusion don't shoot the messenger in this case. This chart came from TESLA.
     
  19. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,349
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    People are also confusing what they are personally seeking in a vehicle in the determination of what the appropriate market comparison is for the car. The purpose of this particular graph, as I understand and interpret it, is to help us understand unit sales comparisons between vehicles of similar functionality (size, seating, luxury) and cost. The cost of the vehicle is vital to the comparison as it links us to the established automotive industry and the norms already understood from that industry regarding demand at different price points.

    We know that if you go from $70k vehicles down to $50k, you see a dramatic increase in units. So using the established industry understanding of demand, where does the Model S slot in? Right here with the S-class and 7 series, and its doing extraordinarily well on the demand for comparably priced and functional vehicles.


    Every point about why people chose a Model S over the theoretical alternatives is in fact a testament to exactly how and why Model S is at the top of that chart instead of somewhere at the bottom. I personally came to the Roadster and soon Model X from a Honda CRX - the Honda CRX does not belong on this chart as a competitive vehicle, even if it represents my personal story.

    What is REALLY interesting about the chart and the conversation, is the rarity of individuals who really did cross-shop Model S against S-class / 7 series alternatives. I think I saw one person above say that was the alternative they considered, with almost everybody else talking about nearby alternatives. Small number and selective sample bias absolutely - this is still a conversation that exists around the Model S and not around the Mercedes S-class. Model S is rewriting the definition of what makes a buyer at different price levels, and I expect similar behavior when Tesla has an SUV / crossover format.

    The fact that the Model S is bring a large number of buyers into its segment despite many limitations cited by the very same buyers of the vehicle (too big for what I wanted, not as much luxury as I'm accustomed to at this price point, doesn't seat as many as I really wanted, didn't have AWD, ...) doesn't mean that the Model S is placed in the wrong market - it means that the Model S is so attractive, it is sucking buyers that would otherwise be buying some other vehicle (and typically much cheaper) into a market they wouldn't otherwise participate in.

    Model S is dramatically increasing the size of the market it participates in.
     

Share This Page