I don't know the details but from what I understand much of the production equipment was on some sort of net 30 / net 45 day payment schedule once the line was operational. In other words there may be a bolus of one-time charges related to capital equipment in Q4
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I just don't see a real competitor to the Model 3 for another 5-8 years.
Why you shouldn’t compare the Nissan Leaf (and other EVs) to the Tesla Model 3
Why you shouldn’t compare the Nissan Leaf (and other EVs) to the Tesla Model 3
I mostly agree, though I expect the Model 3 will be cannibalizing sales of mid-sized family sedans like the Camry, Accord, and Fusion as well as competing hard in the smaller luxury sedan market. The Model 3 costs more than those family sedans, but a lot of people shopping in that market could stretch their budget to a Model 3 if they saw a benefit. And there are benefits, by all estimates the Model 3 should be cheaper to own than a family ICE.
The luxury sedan market isn't bigger than it is in large part because a lot of car buyers who could afford a Mercedes or BMW don't see the point and are fine with a decently equipped Camry or other family sedan. The extra money for those premium cars buys you a nameplate and a few creature comforts, but usually little else.
The Model 3 is completely different tech. If you compared a Camry and a BMW 3 series feature by feature, most of the differences are things the average car buyer doesn't want or would rarely use. However if you compared a Camry to a Model 3, there are features of the 3 that you can't get on the Camry or in any ICE. Once the mainstream car buying public becomes aware of this, the demand for ICE will start to drop.
However, it will probably take a couple of years for the impact to hit. And as you said Dave, it will be another few years beyond that until a real competitor will be available in large enough numbers to really compete with the 3. At that point Tesla will be so well entrenched in the automotive market, they will be guaranteed to be a major player for the next century. (Unless they do something stupid and shoot themselves in the foot.)
@DaveT I just wanted to provide feedback that I find the new TeslaWeekly format to be excellent. The "deeper thought" angle and special focus on Model 3 is valuable and sets it apart from sites like electrek (which is excellent for news). I hope you keep it up. I have turned off my ad blocker in support of your site.
One thing that would be useful for me personally is if you tweet out links to articles when they come out. Many people use Twitter as their primary tool to consume and share (retweet) news. Electrek, for example, has 33K followers on Twitter.
One thing that would be useful for me personally is if you tweet out links to articles when they come out. Many people use Twitter as their primary tool to consume and share (retweet) news. Electrek, for example, has 33K followers on Twitter.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Typo on the date in the Model Y article:
Elon late again!
Elon late again!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It would be interesting to try to determine at what point Elon becomes the richest person on the planet. Without calculating it, I guess it would be somewhere in the middle of this plan. It’s probably psychologically an important milestone to the public.
It depends. Amazon is also going to gain A LOT of value. Amazon is a 3 trillion dollars company. They barely even started to scratch the surface.
By the time Tesla will be worth 500B. Amazon will be worth around 1,5T. That would mean Elon would be worth around 150B. While Jeff Bezos will be worth more than 200B.
Gosh, I hope they don't. I'm not very comfortable with a gigantic monopsony that governs everything I buy, and eat, watch, read, and access online, and also healthcare (but that's just for you US citizens).
Monopoly by Musk means sustainable energy and Mars colony (and the occasional tunnel or flamethrower), but Bezos future is far more worrying.
/rant
Well Amazon will just be the biggest and first to reach that level of dominance. But as more and more talented entrepreneur take advantage of the Internet. I can see a lot of companies gaining massive success.
3T market cap seems a lot by today's standards. But any company worth today more than 400-500B and grows at a reasonable 8-10% per year on average, will be near 3T in the next 15 years.
I think the Camry / Accord buyer will be a harder market vs. A4/ 3-series/ C-class buyers. The second group is already shown willingness to pay more for brand/ luxury/ driving dynamics. I think the model 3 price points of $35k entry to $44k LR to $49k LR+PUP are going to be a stretch for the Camry / Accord buyer unless they really want an EV.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I thought that way too with models but back in 2013 I saw pictures of proud model s in fro t of extremely modest homes with some mentioning trading in non luxury cars. Clearly people were reaching fairly high to get the cars
Chickenlittle
Banned
Now going after healthcare market. I doubt that they are only thinking of their employees but will sell services to other companies as well. Don' kid yourself healthcare is another commodity just like others and any company that thinks otherwise is wrong. I remember when physicians in the lounge would debate effect of HMOs with many thinking there relationships with patients would protect their practices. Then a study came out which demonstrated an average saving of 5 dollars visit was enough to get people to change their doctors
X Fan
Active Member
I believe Amazon has one of three probable pathways:
1) stay the course that you describe and becomes an even larger entity that they are now
2) their size becomes unmanageable and they're split into multiple operating units
3) they get too big and make an enemy of key government officials and get broken up
FWIW: most technological companies have a shelf life. Amazon will be no different particularly as Bezos ages and is replaced.
1) stay the course that you describe and becomes an even larger entity that they are now
2) their size becomes unmanageable and they're split into multiple operating units
3) they get too big and make an enemy of key government officials and get broken up
FWIW: most technological companies have a shelf life. Amazon will be no different particularly as Bezos ages and is replaced.
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Sooner or later the world will change again and amazon will be the new dinosaur whose time has come.
They have a few mornings left to see through though.
They have a few mornings left to see through though.
I'm one of those people. I drove a 1992 Buick until I replaced it with my Model S. A poll done a few years ago found over half of Model S owners never owned a car worth over $60K before.
The bottom half of the income ladder in the US can't afford a new car. The average age of cars on US roads is 12 years because cars have become more reliable and with stagnant incomes a lot of people have been priced out of the new car market. So new car buyers, even modest car buyers are more often in the top half of income earners.
Of the people buying a new Camry or a new Accord, a fair number have the income to buy something more expensive, they just don't see the point. There are also people who can comfortably afford a car in that range, but if they really saw value in something more expensive, they could stretch their budget for it.
Especially if there were saving down the line. For example, someone who has to be on the road a lot. Their fuel budget now could be $1000 a month. They could trade off a $300 electricity budget for a Model 3 and afford $700 more in monthly payments. I had a neighbor in that bind. He had an hour's commute each direction and the fuel budget for his Camry was killing him. He was a fan of Tesla and was waiting to make sure the Model 3 wasn't a turkey before jumping on the bandwagon. The family moved a few months ago, so I haven't talked to him in a while.
There are some cars people stretch their budgets for, but these tend to be prestige cars. I was reading that most Camaros get repossessed because a large number of buyers are young kids with their first job who get in over their heads. But that isn't the case with the family sedan market. The majority of people buying those cars are buying a car well within their means and most have experience managing their money. There will be some people buying those cars who really couldn't afford more, but for a fair number, it's a minor extra expense, or a modest budget stretch and when those people start to see the Model 3 is a superior car to an ICE, they will make the shift and the premium will be within their means.
At that point, the largest volume brands will be in trouble. The US Big 3 will be hit less hard because they rely on light trucks so much and if Tesla does have a pickup at that point it will not be out there in large enough volumes to impact them. But for companies who's bread and butter is mainstream passenger cars like Toyota, it will be crunch time.
Health care is a commodity in the US, but it isn't in most of the rest of the world. Wisely most developed countries have realized health care is more like a public utility than a commodity business and they regulate the industry accordingly. The US is slowly wakening to that realization. There is a tremendous amount of money behind keeping the commodity mindset, but it's eroding the public consciousness almost daily.
Most of the Model 3 reviews I've seen, the people don't quite get the Model 3. They think it's a good or great car, but they fail to realize how significant the car really is.
I've seen the reaction after people experience the Model 3, "Oh my, BMW is dead." I think though they can't fully express the reasons sometimes, they know intuitively that the Model 3 is on a completely different level of experience that is far superior to BMW.
Occasionally I read a review or comment from someone who gets the Model 3. For example, Dave Morin: Tesla Model 3 is by far the single best product I have ever experienced .
Owning the Model 3 has profoundly changed my view of Tesla. I think Tesla is on a different level than most people think, even most people reading this right now.
What Tesla has accomplished in the Model 3 is truly amazing. It's not just one thing. Rather it's the combination of hundreds of things put together, that ultimately make the experience of the car far superior to anything in its price range. And for a lot of people, they won't appreciate the hundreds of things that make it far superior until they own one for several months. For some, they'll understand it much sooner.
It all reminds me of the iPhone and the reactions people had when it first came out. Most people really couldn't grasp it. They passed it off as an overpriced gadget.
I've seen the reaction after people experience the Model 3, "Oh my, BMW is dead." I think though they can't fully express the reasons sometimes, they know intuitively that the Model 3 is on a completely different level of experience that is far superior to BMW.
Occasionally I read a review or comment from someone who gets the Model 3. For example, Dave Morin: Tesla Model 3 is by far the single best product I have ever experienced .
Owning the Model 3 has profoundly changed my view of Tesla. I think Tesla is on a different level than most people think, even most people reading this right now.
What Tesla has accomplished in the Model 3 is truly amazing. It's not just one thing. Rather it's the combination of hundreds of things put together, that ultimately make the experience of the car far superior to anything in its price range. And for a lot of people, they won't appreciate the hundreds of things that make it far superior until they own one for several months. For some, they'll understand it much sooner.
It all reminds me of the iPhone and the reactions people had when it first came out. Most people really couldn't grasp it. They passed it off as an overpriced gadget.
Great to hear, especially given that you had already been driving a Model S for years.
It's going to be really interesting to see how much of that "on a different level" translates to the base Model 3, with or without autopilot. This could mean breaking through and pulling in large amounts of people from the most popular vehicles for families with mid range incomes (Accord, Fusion, Camry, etc.).
Dave, I don't know how realistic a thought experiment this would be without having seen the base model yet, but, I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on how much of this Model 3 "wow" factor will translate to an SR car, how much of it is AP,...
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