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Articles/megaposts by DaveT

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@Zhelko Dimic Curious to hear if the settlement changed your mind?
Well, I still think TSLA is the best opportunity mid-longer term I can envision. Everything is on their side in terms of momentum, technology development, changing customer preferences... And they execute admirably, given the right context, not Muskian timelines.

I've decided awhile ago that Musk is brilliant, yet emotionally immature man-child. I didn't want him to change, nor expected it, after all, there is only so many things person can pursue, and those same character treats that were giving him edge were responsible for his emotionality. I've come from similar background (geek, ass..le father, independent immigrant without family support or connection), so I probably have a bit more insight into his motivation than most.

However, I've been afraid for awhile that he's loosing touch with reality - this seems to happen to many powerful people. Being a disruptor, power wielding figure means that rules are often something that is questioned, and not taken for granted. I've been close enough to power, just to smell it and see this effect, and I've seen extreme examples of it, and how normal people change. And change a lot... And that could lead to all sorts of weird behaviours.

So, I was concerned that Musk is losing it. Him having settle, yes, I'm more comfortable that there are still people that can get to him and get him in touch with what's important (and that's not his id)

So I'm careful, but optimist. I do subscribe to "put all eggs in one basket and then watch basket carefully".
I will however drop my TSLA investment to maybe 70% at first (great) opportunity. I can't completely discount possibility that Tesla fails, and that's not how I felt even just 12 months ago.
 
Well, I still think TSLA is the best opportunity mid-longer term I can envision. Everything is on their side in terms of momentum, technology development, changing customer preferences... And they execute admirably, given the right context, not Muskian timelines.

I've decided awhile ago that Musk is brilliant, yet emotionally immature man-child. I didn't want him to change, nor expected it, after all, there is only so many things person can pursue, and those same character treats that were giving him edge were responsible for his emotionality. I've come from similar background (geek, ass..le father, independent immigrant without family support or connection), so I probably have a bit more insight into his motivation than most.

However, I've been afraid for awhile that he's loosing touch with reality - this seems to happen to many powerful people. Being a disruptor, power wielding figure means that rules are often something that is questioned, and not taken for granted. I've been close enough to power, just to smell it and see this effect, and I've seen extreme examples of it, and how normal people change. And change a lot... And that could lead to all sorts of weird behaviours.

So, I was concerned that Musk is losing it. Him having settle, yes, I'm more comfortable that there are still people that can get to him and get him in touch with what's important (and that's not his id)

So I'm careful, but optimist. I do subscribe to "put all eggs in one basket and then watch basket carefully".
I will however drop my TSLA investment to maybe 70% at first (great) opportunity. I can't completely discount possibility that Tesla fails, and that's not how I felt even just 12 months ago.

I agree with being very bullish on the long-term prospects of Tesla but also concerned about Elon's erratic leadership. Hopefully the settlement will put into place some more accountability and structure that will help.
 
This thread is for the non cultists

Maybe Marc Cuban can call Elon again and tell him to stop being a man child and realize he’s the CEO of a public company.

I’m just not sure how long Tesla can survive like this. Elon has to get his health in order. Has to start to delegate more. Fix his work like balance a little. Maybe even take a damn vacation.
 
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Dave, while one could easily support an argument about the “norms” of civil business behavior. One also must acknowledge that these norms are also used as a smoke screen.

What I mean is, the entity that adheres to the social dance and hierarchy in public and yet in practice participates in every sort of maneuver to torpedo a competitor (ethics, legality, facts and truth be damned) is apparently acceptable.

Step outside of the social dance, no amount of ethics, legality, facts and truth, will stop one from being pilloried and ostracized by those who have nothing but the dance skills to fall on. Ultimately, the dancers will respond positively and even forgive the inability to adhere to the norm when the cash flow is there.

You know as well as anyone, Elon dances to different music, and this is upsetting those taught to waltz for their coming out cotillions and the adhearance to hierarchy taught in their institutional indoctrination where any inkling of creativity left over from the cotillion was rinsed from their soul and replaced with the ethos of winning the game by being the rule maker and that it’s OK to adjust said rules to ones benefit on the fly.

Elon’s accomplishments come from this difference. One overriding difference in Elon is his motivation, “what can I do that would the most positive impact for humanity”. This in and of itself is alien to the “normal” social dance.

The “normal” social dance posits that all motives derive from financial benefit and corresponding social status leading to ones ability to make the rules. That is not his motivation and therefore he is different and must be ostracized until a way to co-opt and profit from his ideas is discovered. Now that the capital infusion leash has been cut they must find another way and in the mean time character assasination is the fall back.

Glad you used the word disappointment as it indicates thoughtfulness and flexibility. Let’s go with the results of great products that directly benefit humanity as the standard for success and do what we can to ensure that the “normal” social dance doesn’t squash it in its infancy.

Fire Away:)
 
Well, I still think TSLA is the best opportunity mid-longer term I can envision. Everything is on their side in terms of momentum, technology development, changing customer preferences... And they execute admirably, given the right context, not Muskian timelines.

I've decided awhile ago that Musk is brilliant, yet emotionally immature man-child. I didn't want him to change, nor expected it, after all, there is only so many things person can pursue, and those same character treats that were giving him edge were responsible for his emotionality. I've come from similar background (geek, ass..le father, independent immigrant without family support or connection), so I probably have a bit more insight into his motivation than most.

However, I've been afraid for awhile that he's loosing touch with reality - this seems to happen to many powerful people. Being a disruptor, power wielding figure means that rules are often something that is questioned, and not taken for granted. I've been close enough to power, just to smell it and see this effect, and I've seen extreme examples of it, and how normal people change. And change a lot... And that could lead to all sorts of weird behaviours.

So, I was concerned that Musk is losing it. Him having settle, yes, I'm more comfortable that there are still people that can get to him and get him in touch with what's important (and that's not his id)

So I'm careful, but optimist. I do subscribe to "put all eggs in one basket and then watch basket carefully".
I will however drop my TSLA investment to maybe 70% at first (great) opportunity. I can't completely discount possibility that Tesla fails, and that's not how I felt even just 12 months ago.

@DaveT, I am concerned again. Enough to think about exit strategies that are of more permanent nature than what I've consider until now. I'm in no hurry, but gravely concerned.

I've believed that Tesla and Musk will fix any problem in their way, because that is their track record. And they mostly did, and I believe will continue to do it.
However, Musk is now establishing new track record of unforced errors, that needs to be considered as something persistent for the future. It's not one off.

And this establishes new expectations for the TSLA SP, creating significant (persistent) discount, let's call it Musk tax. The same way there is a Musk put, there is now Musk tax too.

I think this can be reversed if Musk stopped talking for 3 to 6 months, but obviously, this is not something we can expect or count on anymore. So I believe this damage, this drop, is persistent, i.e. TSLA is now $250 stock with Tesla executing well and chatty Musk, where it would have been $380 with quiet musk. It will go up, but always weighted with the Musk tax from what it could have been before events of the last 6 months.

New girlfriend may change the way he behaves, but those are obviously temporary emotional states, and I doubt can create permanent change of behaviour, now that he got here, where he feels he can pick fight with the whole establishment for whenever he feels wronged...
 
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