Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[farzyness]

@DaveT, I am concerned again. Enough to think about exit strategies that are of more permanent nature than what I've consider until now. I'm in no hurry, but gravely concerned.

I've believed that Tesla and Musk will fix any problem in their way, because that is their track record. And they mostly did, and I believe will continue to do it.
However, Musk is now establishing new track record of unforced errors, that needs to be considered as something persistent for the future. It's not one off.

And this establishes new expectations for the TSLA SP, creating significant (persistent) discount, let's call it Musk tax. The same way there is a Musk put, there is now Musk tax too.

I think this can be reversed if Musk stopped talking for 3 to 6 months, but obviously, this is not something we can expect or count on anymore. So I believe this damage, this drop, is persistent, i.e. TSLA is now $250 stock with Tesla executing well and chatty Musk, where it would have been $380 with quiet musk. It will go up, but always weighted with the Musk tax from what it could have been before events of the last 6 months.

New girlfriend may change the way he behaves, but those are obviously temporary emotional states, and I doubt can create permanent change of behaviour, now that he got here, where he feels he can pick fight with the whole establishment for whenever he feels wronged...

Elon Musk's track record is that he fights against the things that he doesn't believe are good for humanity. Short Selling is a practice that is deeply flawed, and spreading of misinformation and propaganda is an incentive for a short seller to be more successful. Elon is fighting against this, and has been, ever since he's been at Tesla. Tesla is now under a much larger lens, and there are multi-trillion dollar industries on the verge of massive disruption that have a lot to gain from devaluing Tesla and hoping that it fails.

This is par for the course. If you aren't able to stomach short-term volatility, Tesla is not for you.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Elon Musk's track record is that he fights against the things that he doesn't believe are good for humanity. Short Selling is a practice that is deeply flawed, and spreading of misinformation and propaganda is an incentive for a short seller to be more successful. Elon is fighting against this, and has been, ever since he's been at Tesla. Tesla is now under a much larger lens, and there are multi-trillion dollar industries on the verge of massive disruption that have a lot to gain from devaluing Tesla and hoping that it fails.

This is par for the course. If you aren't able to stomach short-term volatility, Tesla is not for you.

The way I'm reading this is that you're telling me I'm stupid.
I'm quite annoyed with you right now.
I didn't ask you for advice, and you giving it without understanding my situation, or history is ABSOLUTELY not welcome.
I hope you can also read between lines; this is a very polite version of my response.

 

[bdy0627]

People can debate about how bad Elon's behavior has been or why he is doing it. The fact is that Elon's behavior is clearly polarizing long term longs. That's a bad thing, plain and simple.

 

[farzyness]

The way I'm reading this is that you're telling me I'm stupid.
I'm quite annoyed with you right now.
I didn't ask you for advice, and you giving it without understanding my situation, or history is ABSOLUTELY not welcome.
I hope you can also read between lines; this is a very polite version of my response.

It's an open forum - I think you're taking my response personally.

 

[DaveT]

I'm writing a series of blog posts to share my ideas on what's going on with Elon and what can be done.

TLDR version - Elon is not crazy, the SEC is overboard, but the bigger problem is Elon's pedo tweets has turned many people against him and the SEC is solving not the "funding secured" tweet problem but the bigger issue of reigning "out of control" CEO. My recommendations will come in later parts.

Part 1: The Turning Tide - Why the SEC is going after Elon and why he’s losing many of his most ardent fans

 

[DaveT]

@DaveT, I am concerned again. Enough to think about exit strategies that are of more permanent nature than what I've consider until now. I'm in no hurry, but gravely concerned.

I've believed that Tesla and Musk will fix any problem in their way, because that is their track record. And they mostly did, and I believe will continue to do it.
However, Musk is now establishing new track record of unforced errors, that needs to be considered as something persistent for the future. It's not one off.

And this establishes new expectations for the TSLA SP, creating significant (persistent) discount, let's call it Musk tax. The same way there is a Musk put, there is now Musk tax too.

I think this can be reversed if Musk stopped talking for 3 to 6 months, but obviously, this is not something we can expect or count on anymore. So I believe this damage, this drop, is persistent, i.e. TSLA is now $250 stock with Tesla executing well and chatty Musk, where it would have been $380 with quiet musk. It will go up, but always weighted with the Musk tax from what it could have been before events of the last 6 months.

New girlfriend may change the way he behaves, but those are obviously temporary emotional states, and I doubt can create permanent change of behaviour, now that he got here, where he feels he can pick fight with the whole establishment for whenever he feels wronged...

Well said @Zhelko Dimic. There is a Musk tax now. What is even more concerning is that if the Elon/SEC settlement breaks down, and Elon and/or SEC pushes it to trial, it can get very messy. There's also a growing possibility that if Elon doesn't cut out the Twitter attacks that the board will eventually step in and relieve him of his CEO duties. What was once very messy, only seems to be getting even messier. And this isn't good for anyone.

 

[DaveT]

People can debate about how bad Elon's behavior has been or why he is doing it. The fact is that Elon's behavior is clearly polarizing long term longs. That's a bad thing, plain and simple.

His behavior is not just polarizing long-term longs, but his behavior is causing a lot of long-term longs to turn against him. This isn't good. One of Elon's strengths to date has been the fervor of his long-term ardent fans and supporters. This is being shaken.

I'm still an ardent supporter of Elon but I do believe he urgently needs to change course. But the reality is he's doing what he's doing because he deeply thinks it's the right thing to do. In other words, Elon will only change course if he's convinced it's the right thing to do. And that's why I think it's important for ardent supporters of Elon to share their voice.

 

[schonelucht]

DaveT touches on a sensitive subject. 5-6 years ago Elon could do no wrong in the public opinion. That was a well earned reputation. Now some of that will inevitably run off once you move from underdog to winner, as Elon clearly did. But the rub is bigger than it should have been. I too agree that there is now an Elon tax we must pay to keep the visionary disruptive on board.

 

[aubreymcfato]

You said it all, but can I just add 1 cent?
I think that the "invicibility" aura of Elon is well deserved when he faces engineering/design problems, which can be understood from a physics point of view. He has a deep understanding of those things, and being "different" he is not scared by enourmous amount of work/capital/time to solve these problems. Normal humans like me get frustrated easily, he doesn't.

This is very different from the battle he's trying to fight now.
Human emotions don't follow first principles. You can manipulate minds, and you can manipulate markets, and you kinda never know the outcome. Elon can lose this fight with a much higher probability than other fights.
This is what worries me. Only few people in United States are "immune" to PC (ie, Trump), but others have seen their status shattered in pieces from the right accusation, from the wrong word.

I hope he gets advised well on this: I'd hate for him to be outed as a CEO for the wrong tweets. It would be a shame and we'll all lose: he needs to get a bit more strategic on this, play it smarter.

 

[Do It]

New The way I'm reading this is that you're telling me I'm stupid.
I'm quite annoyed with you right now.
I didn't ask you for advice, and you giving it without understanding my situation, or history is ABSOLUTELY not welcome.
I hope you can also read between lines; this is a very polite version of my response.

Agree with you Zhelko! I have read yours post since 2014 and have always find them balanced and insightful. People making statements like "stock market is not for you", "tsla is not for you" are very annoying to say the least.

I share your concern but I would wait until the model 3 story is fully played out - model 3 has exceed expectations and it might be fairly straightforward for tsla to grow from here.

Short term I think the story about Saudi 200B solar project story has some legs - if indeed tsla is involved in a big way, that could be huge.

 

[JRP3]

I believe posts such as Dave's will have no influence on Elon or Tesla save to give the bears more ammo, and thus negatively affect us all.

 

[EVNow]

I believe posts such as Dave's will have no influence on Elon or Tesla save to give the bears more ammo, and thus negatively affect us all.

Yes - I feel it is circle the wagons time, not lets form a circular firing squad time (I don't particular think Dave's post is this, but some others are).

 

[DaveT]

I believe posts such as Dave's will have no influence on Elon or Tesla save to give the bears more ammo, and thus negatively affect us all.

Would love to hear what you suggest. Because lots of people here have been defending Elon's every action, and look at what's happened. He's digging himself a deeper hole. And just being critical of Elon isn't going to help either. We need to look at things objectively and find a real solution. This involves trying to think deeper and looking at things from different angles. And also being open-minded as well. No need to shoot things down without giving it a chance. Also, please save judgement until you've read my entire series of blog posts.

 

[DaveT]

This is very different from the battle he's trying to fight now.
Human emotions don't follow first principles. You can manipulate minds, and you can manipulate markets, and you kinda never know the outcome. Elon can lose this fight with a much higher probability than other fights.
This is what worries me. Only few people in United States are "immune" to PC (ie, Trump), but others have seen their status shattered in pieces from the right accusation, from the wrong word.

I hope he gets advised well on this: I'd hate for him to be outed as a CEO for the wrong tweets. It would be a shame and we'll all lose: he needs to get a bit more strategic on this, play it smarter.

Yep, Elon is being thrown into a very complicated and messy battle. And it's far from the more predictable world of engineering and physics.

 

[Singer3000]

An “Elon Tax” is looking at this backwards in my view. On the day there was news that he could be removed as CEO, the stock dropped 17%. On the day that he settled, this immediately reversed.

Ergo, there remains an unmeasured but likely massive Elon Premium to this stock, just one that’s a bit more volatile in value and certainty than before. Fundamentals of company at this point are ok without him. But only ok.

 

[DaveT]

Here’s Part 2 in my blog post series. Feeling a lot of urgency here. Just telling Elon to stop tweeting will not work. And just blaming the shortsellers, media and SEC won’t work either. This is looking like it might be a bad ending, unless we can find another way.

DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 2: The Turning Tide - Why Elon vs SEC might have a very bad ending"

 

[JRP3]

Would love to hear what you suggest. Because lots of people here have been defending Elon's every action, and look at what's happened. He's digging himself a deeper hole. And just being critical of Elon isn't going to help either. We need to look at things objectively and find a real solution. This involves trying to think deeper and looking at things from different angles. And also being open-minded as well. No need to shoot things down without giving it a chance. Also, please save judgement until you've read my entire series of blog posts.

The piling on with public critiques such as yours are not solutions. I don't think we can find a solution to the "problem" because the "problem" is Elon being Elon. You are trying to "solve" his fundamental nature and I don't think that's possible. I'm sure many people close to him have tried the same.
As for saving judgement I had to comment that your first effort with all the focus on the pedo tweets was an error. I'm sure Elon realizes that most found that to be objectionable yet he still doubled down on it after all the furor. Those were the only actions of his which I found to be somewhat irrational and not worth the damage caused.

 

[DaveT]

The piling on with public critiques such as yours are not solutions. I don't think we can find a solution to the "problem" because the "problem" is Elon being Elon. You are trying to "solve" his fundamental nature and I don't think that's possible. I'm sure many people close to him have tried the same.
As for saving judgement I had to comment that your first effort with all the focus on the pedo tweets was an error. I'm sure Elon realizes that most found that to be objectionable yet he still doubled down on it after all the furor. Those were the only actions of his which I found to be somewhat irrational and not worth the damage caused.

Elon being Elon and won't change I think is a poor argument. Elon is doing what he does because he strongly believes that it's the right thing to do. And he's believing that it's the right thing to do because he has certain assumptions and assertions, that while people around him have challenged him I don't think anyone has come up with a convincing enough of an argument for Elon to change. In other words, Elon won't change until he's convinced to change and by his volition. Just telling him to change won't work. And also just telling people that Elon won't change isn't productive either.

 

[JRP3]

Here’s Part 2 in my blog post series. Feeling a lot of urgency here. Just telling Elon to stop tweeting will not work. And just blaming the shortsellers, media and SEC won’t work either. This is looking like it might be a bad ending, unless we can find another way.

DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 2: The Turning Tide - Why Elon vs SEC might have a very bad ending"

Just read part 2, I think you laid out a strong case as to why Elon should not settle, much of which echos my own thoughts. You seem to want Elon to give into a government bully.

 

[EinSV]

@DaveT, I do think the SEC's overreaching and Elon's reactions to it should be taken seriously.

I think the best solution is for Elon to reconsider his decision to keep Tesla as a public company, and to take Tesla private. More details here: Dear Elon: Please reconsider and take Tesla private

This time, since he already knows the views of shareholders he can do it in a controlled fashion and get all ducks in a row before publicly announcing the go-private deal.