Phil Seastrand
Member
So repealing Dodd-Frank is a good policy because 2008 was such a fun year?Whether I like the person or not, his policies are generally good for our economy and country IMO
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So repealing Dodd-Frank is a good policy because 2008 was such a fun year?Whether I like the person or not, his policies are generally good for our economy and country IMO
Dave,First, shoutout to everyone for adding value/perspective and keeping the discussion civil.
The main concern of my post is not necessarily what my political views are or what your political views are (note: that discussion is probably best suited on another venue). Rather, the concern is how will Elon's involvement in the Trump admin impact Tesla as a company and their future growth prospects.
There are two ways to look at this impact. First, we can look at what the current impact is. Second, we can look at what the future impact will look like, but that will be based on certain assumptions (and those assumptions will be different for each of us).
When we look at the current impact, I think it's easy to minimize the impact by assuming that perhaps not that many people have canceled their Model 3 reservations. However, we do know that some people have cancelled their reservations, and I think this is a concerning fact. The reason this is concerning is not necessarily because it's a large percent of the overall reservations (it's most likely a very small percentage at the moment), but rather it's what the cancellations represent. In order to be an early Model 3 reservation holder, one generally needs to be someone who believes in Tesla/Elon and the values and mission of the company. When someone goes from a reservation holder to someone who cancels their reservation specifically because of Elon's alignment with the Trump admin, then it's showing that the reservation holder has been disappointed in a very deep manner. Now there will always be anomalies... meaning a few people here and there that cancel for odd reasons. However, beyond anomalies there could be trends as well. In other words, it's possible already a few to several hundred people have cancelled their Model 3 reservations because of their disappointment with Elon's involvement in the Trump admin. Now, objectively speaking this is a small amount and most people here might posit that its nothing to worry about. However, if you think about it on a deeper level there is likely an order or two magnitude more people that aren't disappointed to the point where they'd cancel their reservation but nevertheless they are disappointed at some level in Elon's involvement and they've lost some affinity toward Tesla/Elon due to the apparent difference in political views/values. Now it's extremely difficult to quantify this "loss of affinity" as it's more of a feeling/loyalty/goodwill toward a company and doesn't show up in typical metrics very well. However, this "affinity" is crucial and is why certain brands are worth what they are. The "loss of affinity" can show up when a person needs to confirm their reservation and they have second thoughts, and a large number don't confirm. Or this "loss of affinity" can show up in when they're less enthusiastic to share about Tesla to their friends. I'm going into detail with this concept because I think it's a mistake to overlook the current Model 3 cancellations as "not important". Rather, this is something that's worth keeping an eye out for.
Another area where this "loss of affinity" can impact Tesla is with its employees. A lot of Tesla's employees were drawn to Tesla by Elon's values and vision. However, as Elon continues his involvement in the Trump admin some are going to feel that this betrays their own personal values of democracy, individual rights (including immigrants, refugees, undocumented workers, etc), and globalism/peace. Now, I'm not saying that a majority of Tesla's employees are going to feel disappointed or betrayed. Actually I'm not saying that I know that number by any means. What I am saying is that I see if very possible that SOME (an unknown number) of Tesla's employee's are struggling with their personal commitment to a company whose leader is now supporting a regime that they see as a fascist regime undermining global democracy and peace. For those employees, it's a process and the longer Elon continues his involvement in the Trump regime, the more difficult it is for these employees to stay at Tesla. It also can hurt Tesla's recruitment of the best minds as well. Now a lot of this possible "brain drain" is predicated on Elon continuing his involvement in the Trump admin's advisory councils, which apparently Elon feels strongly about (based on this morning's tweet of "Doing otherwise would be wrong."). I wouldn't be surprised to see the first trickle of Tesla employees resigning this week. A few employees resigning won't impact Tesla significantly, but I'm more worried about the possibility of this becoming a trend and its impact on Tesla.
Many people thought that the Trump admin would change its rhetoric once in office, but I wasn't expecting that. If you do a deep dive in to Bannon (ie., watch Bannon's speeches on Youtube, watch his documentaries, read his interviews, etc. from the past 10 years), it's quite evident that Bannon has a very pointed agenda and that agenda is quite polarizing. In other words, I think we're headed for a very polarizing next several years in U.S. and world politics. What you're seeing now in terms of division and polarization is just the beginning of much, much more to come. In that context, people who try to play in the middle will be forced to choose a side. Travis Kalanick and Elon are/were trying to play in this middle, but the issues at stake are just too polarizing. Travis ended up choosing to distance himself from Trump/Bannon. While Elon, by nature of his defensive tweets, is choosing to align himself with Trump/Bannon. Even if Elon's intention is not to align himself with Trump/Bannon, this is how he is going to be seen by a growing number of people. This is the political reality of a hyper-polarized political environment.
The moral dilemma with Elon's involvement with the Trump/Bannon admin is the following. By defending his own personal involvement in the Trump admin, that action can and will be taken as criticism and chastisement of those who are choosing to protest and form a counter-movement. In other words, Elon is saying "Engagement is right. To not engage is wrong." However, there are millions of people who feel engagement is wrong as it could legitimize and lend credibility to what Trump/Bannon are doing. Thus, their plan is to fight and resist, and to raise up a counter-movement to vote Trump out in the next election. What Elon is doing can be seen not only as counterproductive but also directly opposing such efforts. In other words, the more Elon promotes engagement with Trump/Bannon, he can be seen as undermining the efforts of those who are resisting/protesting.
One of the big issues is how Elon views the Trump admin. Based on Elon's tweets it appears that Elon agrees with the gist of Trump's overall objectives/goals but he is critical on the manner those goals are pursued. However, this also poses a problem... in a political sense. There are many that disagree with the overall goals of the Trump admin, especially the key issues that Bannon is an advocate for (such as a crusade against Islam, closing of borders to foreigners/immigrants/etc, the monoculturalization of "civic society", etc). Thus, when Elon says publicly that he is in agreement with Trump's goal to "make American great again"... this is going to be mistaken as Elon agreeing with all of Trump/Bannon's overall goals. And in an intensely polarized political environment, this will put Elon at odds with half the world who disagree (roughly speaking).
Another part of all of this is while Trump is rather upfront, Bannon on the other hand is quite savvy and coy. In other words, Bannon's agenda is less transparent. And in order to get to his views, one really needs to do a deep dive on him using his own materials (Bannon's own speeches, documentaries, interviews, etc). Bannon has typically tried to be the behind-the-scenes orchestrator of a grand political strategy, using others as "vessels"... such as Breitbart news, GAI (if you're not familiar with this group, check Bannon's involvement and their usage of the dark web to target political opponents), Milo, etc.
I personally seriously doubt if Elon was aware of all of Bannon's ideology that Elon would still be as supportive of Trump/Bannon as he is currently. I actually personally doubt if 99% of the population is really aware of the full Bannon ideology.
If you understand the full Bannon ideology, you'll understand why the extreme polarization we're starting to see is just the beginning.
I think you've correctly identified this as the key risk of Musk's participation and the reason I wish he would stay Tweet-less about this Advisory Council.Or this "loss of affinity" can show up in when they're less enthusiastic to share about Tesla to their friends. I'm going into detail with this concept because I think it's a mistake to overlook the current Model 3 cancellations as "not important". Rather, this is something that's worth keeping an eye out for.
I think you've correctly identified this as the key risk of Musk's participation and the reason I wish he would stay Tweet-less about this Advisory Council.
Taken to an extreme conclusion, what would happen to brand affinity if Tesla became identified as Trump's favorite car company? Would sales go up or down in it's biggest U.S. market, blue-blue Calif; where voters went for Clinton 2-1 over Trump. European market? China?
Would VW-Audi, BMW and Tata (Jag) jump at a chance to get some of their market share back if all it takes is some guilt-by-association, fake news?
First, shoutout to everyone for adding value/perspective and keeping the discussion civil.
....Thus, their plan is to fight and resist, and to raise up a counter-movement to vote Trump out in the next election.
Can you provide more rationale for your assertions? Just curious considering Tesla's core markets in the US are largely left-leaning. And further, Tesla sales are global.I think Elon is doing exactly the right thing in this situation and I think it will have minimal to no negative impact on Tesla over all. What seems to be totally ignored here is the good being done to the Tesla brand with those on the right who voted for Trump. So a few ideologues cancel their orders, how many on the other side are now taking a second look at Tesla because of Trump's support?
I have had identical thoughts; my strongest assertion is based on the expected and indeed actualized immense diminution in r-w wacko hit jobs on Tesla and on Mr Musk.Can you provide more rationale for your assertions?
Another area where this "loss of affinity" can impact Tesla is with its employees. A lot of Tesla's employees were drawn to Tesla by Elon's values and vision. However, as Elon continues his involvement in the Trump admin some are going to feel that this betrays their own personal values of democracy, individual rights (including immigrants, refugees, undocumented workers, etc), and globalism/peace.
Tesla's core markets are left leaning because (and only because imo) of the perceived affiliation of EVs with leftist political goals. I have many far right friends who won't even consider Tesla *purely* because they think EVs are a "leftist thing". I have more moderate righty friends that will pay attention to the arguments. I tell both groups that a global transition to EVs is 100% inevitable barring some doomsday event. I also tell them that, given equal scales of production, EVs will be superior to ICE vehicles in every way except speed of long road trips (where they will still be competitive). Even the far righties know I'm correct, they just don't want to face the facts. But no one wants to back a loser, and at least in my circles, EV acceptance is growing fairly quickly.Can you provide more rationale for your assertions? Just curious considering Tesla's core markets in the US are largely left-leaning. And further, Tesla sales are global.
... When someone goes from a reservation holder to someone who cancels their reservation specifically because of Elon's alignment with the Trump admin, then it's showing that the reservation holder has been disappointed in a very deep manner. Now there will always be anomalies... meaning a few people here and there that cancel for odd reasons.
On top of what others have already said I simply feel that the extremists on the left are a small minority, and an even smaller minority of that group are in a position to do anything directly affecting Tesla. Many of us here are left leaning and few, if any, are upset enough to cancel orders. Add that to my aforementioned belief that Elon's actions and efforts working with Trump will pull in additional support from the right. Obviously Elon's thinking is in line with my own, which has historically worked out well for both of usCan you provide more rationale for your assertions? Just curious considering Tesla's core markets in the US are largely left-leaning. And further, Tesla sales are global.
On top of what others have already said I simply feel that the extremists on the left are a small minority, and an even smaller minority of that group are in a position to do anything directly affecting Tesla. Many of us here are left leaning and few, if any, are upset enough to cancel orders. Add that to my aforementioned belief that Elon's actions and efforts working with Trump will pull in additional support from the right. Obviously Elon's thinking is in line with my own, which has historically worked out well for both of us