Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[wart]

I sometimes forget that not everyone, even here, has a Model S ;-). So allow me to tell you a bit more about how it works.

The energy display on the center of the small screen does only show some version of the rated miles left. However, the energy graph app, when you bring it up on the big screen, does show you the "miles to zero based on usage". However by default, it always comes up showing it based on "instantaneous" energy usage, which is really the average for the last some-fraction-of-a-mile. This is completely useless. So you have to switch it to show the average over the last 30 miles. I know people have complained about this, and they never change it, so I assume something much better is coming and they just can't be bothered doing a short-term hack.

Aha! Thank you for that explanation. The manual mentions the Energy app in passing but doesn't really describe it. (I'm looking at the manual for 5.9, not sure if there is a newer manual readily available). It would be nice if the range number on the center display of the instrument panel could be set to mirror the more sophisticated number from the app. Maybe software version 6?

To bring things back on topic - this sort of interface less-than-obviousness is the sort of thing that Early Adopters will deal with but Early Majority will find annoying. I choose to be optimistic that Tesla will work these things out before the launch of the Model 3. As I've said in one of the Model 3 prediction threads, I expect that all future Tesla cars will have a similar touchscreen interface and basically the same software, so Model 3 should benefit greatly from the continuing development on Model S and X.

 

[MartinAustin]

this sort of interface less-than-obviousness is the sort of thing that Early Adopters will deal with but Early Majority will find annoying

Don't forget that there is a "new car delivery process" just like at regular "dealers" for gasoline cars. All the Tesla's various switches and controls are explained to the new owner. There is a lot less to explain re: physical switches, and more to explain about re: the touch-screen display, but otherwise, nothing should be less-than-obvious once new owners are done with delivery.

I do agree that the calculation of remaining range is difficult, and the car's built-in software only has so many ways to look at things; drivers will learn by experience what sort of driving gets what sort of range. The computer can't anticipate how you are about to drive... it can only consider what you've already been doing and/or some pre-set driving styles.

The Model 3 in 2017 will certainly be the first exposure to electric cars for a lot of people; but the driving differences between electric and gasoline cars will have been explored by the early adopter drivers of earlier EVs, and it won't be a total unknown subject.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Aha! Thank you for that explanation. The manual mentions the Energy app in passing but doesn't really describe it. (I'm looking at the manual for 5.9, not sure if there is a newer manual readily available). It would be nice if the range number on the center display of the instrument panel could be set to mirror the more sophisticated number from the app. Maybe software version 6?

To bring things back on topic - this sort of interface less-than-obviousness is the sort of thing that Early Adopters will deal with but Early Majority will find annoying. I choose to be optimistic that Tesla will work these things out before the launch of the Model 3. As I've said in one of the Model 3 prediction threads, I expect that all future Tesla cars will have a similar touchscreen interface and basically the same software, so Model 3 should benefit greatly from the continuing development on Model S and X.

This reminds me of why I bought the car when I initially invested. Your comments read like getting a Mercedes manual and extrapolating what it feels like to sit and drive in it. Btw, the tesla manual is so much more readable and more concise than any other car manual I have ever seen. The navigation manual alone on my old Mazda car was a lot thicker than the whole car manual for the model s.

 

[chickensevil]

To the point of explaining vs doing. I have tried to explain how the car works to people for the driving dynamics. Especially for regen. Which is a totally new subject for some of the family and friends I have talked to, and it *sounds* complicated. But when you do it, it becomes so simple and much better that you wonder how you ever lived without it.

Imagine trying to explain to someone how a smartphone works to someone who has never touched one, and all they know is a regular cell phone. If you started to tell them all the crazy wonderful things you can do it sounds like a lot to take in. But it really is just different... not harder... and actually makes things simpler.

In the case of the car, no matter how much I had explained to my Brother about the car and how it worked with the driving, since I was giving him a lesson before he would actually be driving it, it just didn't click for him until he drove it. His response... "oh wow! that's cool!" From a puzzled look to simple surprise.

So I really recommend that you go and do a test drive. It really will help explain things to you and give you perspective on what would be a limitation for a majority type person. Because there are definitely things that can and should be improved about the car.

 

[DaveT]

To bring things back on topic - this sort of interface less-than-obviousness is the sort of thing that Early Adopters will deal with but Early Majority will find annoying. I choose to be optimistic that Tesla will work these things out before the launch of the Model 3. As I've said in one of the Model 3 prediction threads, I expect that all future Tesla cars will have a similar touchscreen interface and basically the same software, so Model 3 should benefit greatly from the continuing development on Model S and X.

Overall the energy screen on the Model S is pretty much useless to me. I never look at it. It just feels like I need to have a degree (at least bachelors) in order to figure out how to read and use the energy screen. I prefer just driving. And I prefer to not even look at the rated miles left, if I can help it. I think most drivers just want to drive and not look or try to understand their energy usage patterns.

In this regard, I think Tesla has been very slow in releasing a software update that will remedy this. But I'm hopeful they will (as others have mentioned in this thread).

Currently there are just way too many things that could go wrong when going from one supercharger to another. You could look at the navigation and see you need 180 miles, so you charge to 190 miles. But going to the Supercharger is uphill, but you don't know it. So it actually takes 200 rated miles to get to the next Supercharger. But you don't know that because no where on the Model S screen does it say that. So, either you slow up to like 55mph and pray/hope that you make it (now that's range anxiety) or you drive normally and get surprised when you only have 20 rated miles left but you have 30 miles to go. Then, you freak out and see if there's a hotel you can crash at within 20 miles, but if there isn't then I don't know what you do.

The Model S (and future cars) really should be dummy-proof. If you have a Supercharger as your next destination in navigation, then it really should make it next to impossible for you not to reach the next Supercharger. It should make sure you leave with enough charge and if you're using too much energy (ie., going too fast, blasting A/C, etc) then it should tell you exactly how fast you can go and what A/C setting you should use. And if you get to a place where you don't have enough miles to reach the next Supercharger it should alert you that you're not going to make it and you need to charge somewhere.

Even better, the Model S should know my driving patterns (ie., I like driving 5-10mph above the speed limit on freeways) and then calculate how much charge I need at the Supercharger station in order to make it to the next Supercharger station.

No one should really need to read a manual to figure out how to drive the Model S. It should be as easy as hold the brake and press down on the lever to go to drive, then drive.

 

[austinEV]

I have the opposite of range anxiety. I have never-empty-annoyance. There was something visceral about getting low on gas, then getting gas, and then having gas. The fullness was a sort of dumb accomplishment in and of itself. Going from nearly empty (oh no!) to full was a "natural" cycle to life. Now I am just always 80-90%. No point at looking at the gauges. I feel the same way about over-attentive waiters refilling a water glass. Sometimes I realize I am trying to "finish" my water and I never make progress... Similarly I never make progress in moving my battery gauge.

(and yes, I am aware that my brain being burned into thinking that cycling a gas gauge is not a positive thing.)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I have the opposite of range anxiety. I have never-empty-annoyance. There was something visceral about getting low on gas, then getting gas, and then having gas. The fullness was a sort of dumb accomplishment in and of itself. Going from nearly empty (oh no!) to full was a "natural" cycle to life. Now I am just always 80-90%. No point at looking at the gauges. I feel the same way about over-attentive waiters refilling a water glass. Sometimes I realize I am trying to "finish" my water and I never make progress... Similarly I never make progress in moving my battery gauge.

(and yes, I am aware that my brain being burned into thinking that cycling a gas gauge is not a positive thing.)

Or even worse, those places where they keep on topping off your wine glass so you have no idea how much you've had..."No, I've had enough, really! I think?"

You don't realize how awesome it is never going to the gas station until you don't have to, then you go back again for the wife's car...

 

[chickensevil]

Dave, while I think that is doable and certainly a welcome change, I don't feel it is needed to get past that... Maybe it is just me, but having put about 2200+ supercharged miles on my car the most I did each time on a new uncharted route was put 30 extra miles on the car. I then just drove the speed limit. The way I figure it, 65mph flat is what the rated is based on... If I am holding steady at 65 or 70 then I should get pretty close to that. Sure enough, the most extra I ever burned through was 15 miles. That was with 2 passengers and the AC on 68 (outside 85-95). The way I figured if it dropped below a 10 mile buffer, I would drop 5mph, but I never once had that issue. No worrying and no anxiety.

The solution to some of that will of course come as charging becomes more prevalent. Then you could have the option to just pull off the road whenever you felt you needed to.

 

[ggies07]

I feel the same way about over-attentive waiters refilling a water glass. Sometimes I realize I am trying to "finish" my water and I never make progress...

hahahaha, nice. This sounds something like what George on Seinfeld would say. I can see him getting all excited and waving his hands around, being all spastic about it.

 

[DaveT]

Dave, while I think that is doable and certainly a welcome change, I don't feel it is needed to get past that... Maybe it is just me, but having put about 2200+ supercharged miles on my car the most I did each time on a new uncharted route was put 30 extra miles on the car. I then just drove the speed limit. The way I figure it, 65mph flat is what the rated is based on... If I am holding steady at 65 or 70 then I should get pretty close to that. Sure enough, the most extra I ever burned through was 15 miles. That was with 2 passengers and the AC on 68 (outside 85-95). The way I figured if it dropped below a 10 mile buffer, I would drop 5mph, but I never once had that issue. No worrying and no anxiety.

The solution to some of that will of course come as charging becomes more prevalent. Then you could have the option to just pull off the road whenever you felt you needed to.

I had an anxiety-ridden trip down the 5 freeway from the Bay Area to San Diego, I think for a few reasons:
1. I was in a rush and needed to get back home fast. Thus, I didn't want to spend unnecessary time at Superchargers overcharging too much.
2. There are legs between Superchargers where the elevation changes drastically and rated miles are very inaccurate.
3. I like driving at 80mph on the 5 freeway (speed limit is 70mph), and I don't want to change my driving habits because of the car.

I think if I had a lot of time for my trip, I was ok with 65mph, and the route was relatively level then I wouldn't have had much anxiety.

But back to the original topic, range anxiety on long trips is a challenge that needs to be overcome. I personally don't think we should expect people to become educated on energy usage and adjust their driving habits. This is only realistic for Early Adopters. For EVs to get mass adoption we need to dummy-proof the EV experience. A person should be able to drive whatever way they are used to and they shouldn't have to "plan" their trips, if at all possible. They should be able to just get up and go and know for sure that they will make it to the next Supercharger because the car is guaranteeing that it will happen. In other words, software should do its part in eliminating range anxiety. I think Tesla will release this functionality, hopefully sooner the better. I just think that it's overdue and it's resulted in some negative publicity when journalists have been stuck on the side of the road waiting for a flatbed tow truck since for whatever reason they didn't have enough charge to get to the next Supercharger. Perhaps they drove too fast, perhaps too much A/C, perhaps it was too cold outside, or perhaps too much elevation, etc... regardless, being stuck on the side of the road waiting for a flatbed tow truck is awful and could and should be totally prevented by software that makes that next to impossible to happen.

 

[wart]

Don't forget that there is a "new car delivery process" just like at regular "dealers" for gasoline cars. All the Tesla's various switches and controls are explained to the new owner. There is a lot less to explain re: physical switches, and more to explain about re: the touch-screen display, but otherwise, nothing should be less-than-obvious once new owners are done with delivery.

My understanding was that this was not the case in Texas during the early days but things have improved greatly. I see you're in Austin so am pleased to hear that Texans get the full delivery experience now.

So I really recommend that you go and do a test drive. It really will help explain things to you and give you perspective on what would be a limitation for a majority type person. Because there are definitely things that can and should be improved about the car.

I have driven a Model S briefly, at a test drive event in Houston a couple of months ago. The primary controls (accelerator, brake, steering) are sublime. The turn signal/wiper stalk will take a tiny bit of getting used to but that's no different from any other car. What I did not do at all during the drive was play with the touchscreen. Next time I'm in a store/gallery I'll have to explore in a more systematic way.

The Model S (and future cars) really should be dummy-proof. If you have a Supercharger as your next destination in navigation, then it really should make it next to impossible for you not to reach the next Supercharger. It should make sure you leave with enough charge and if you're using too much energy (ie., going too fast, blasting A/C, etc) then it should tell you exactly how fast you can go and what A/C setting you should use. And if you get to a place where you don't have enough miles to reach the next Supercharger it should alert you that you're not going to make it and you need to charge somewhere.

Even better, the Model S should know my driving patterns (ie., I like driving 5-10mph above the speed limit on freeways) and then calculate how much charge I need at the Supercharger station in order to make it to the next Supercharger station.

No one should really need to read a manual to figure out how to drive the Model S. It should be as easy as hold the brake and press down on the lever to go to drive, then drive.

This, exactly. I think we are in agreement.

Thanks again to everyone, this has been very interesting and informative for me and I hope for other readers too.

 

[chickensevil]

I had an anxiety-ridden trip down the 5 freeway from the Bay Area to San Diego, I think for a few reasons:
1. I was in a rush and needed to get back home fast. Thus, I didn't want to spend unnecessary time at Superchargers overcharging too much.
2. There are legs between Superchargers where the elevation changes drastically and rated miles are very inaccurate.
3. I like driving at 80mph on the 5 freeway (speed limit is 70mph), and I don't want to change my driving habits because of the car.

Didn't want to quote the whole thing, but I feel I should point out that even in an ICE you are not going to get anywhere near the highway rated MPG going 80MPH. And looking at the speed verse range charts for the Model S, you will see that it really starts to take a dive past 70. I drive... pretty fast... going to and from work and am hitting 380 to work and by the time I come home I have averaged out to ~340wh/mi which... is pretty bad (and should give you an idea of how fast I am talking about). But if I drop down to more... appropriate speeds, I can easily get 300 overall. Which is telling how much just a few MPH makes on the car.

Again, I think charging density is really the only remedy to for that along with greater overall range. Which will let people drive however they want to. And I am totally and absolutely all for them modifying the software, since most of that information should be able to be figured out through the available internet connection and the rest of the car systems. It also doesn't help anything that the best thing for time is to try to hit as close to 0 as possible, which means for road trips you are playing a risky game that wouldn't be played in another car. So I think the REAL fix is to solve recharging to be a bit quicker so you don't feel like you HAVE to hit 10 miles of range left when you get to your destination. Because from what you were saying, you wouldn't have been in any less of a hurry and wanted to drive fast... both are not... exactly... conducive for the Model S when you are also trying to limit your recharge times.

The counter to this, is that how many minutes are you saving on the freeway going 80 vs 70 over the amount of extra minutes you have to sit on the charger to hit say 130 vs 110 to account for the added drain of driving fast? It may seem backwards, but it could be that driving slower would have actually been faster. So again, the real fix here to your time issue, would be to speed up recharge time and up the range of the car. The rest is more just a coping mechanism to bide your time until these two things happen.

I have driven a Model S briefly, at a test drive event in Houston a couple of months ago. The primary controls (accelerator, brake, steering) are sublime. The turn signal/wiper stalk will take a tiny bit of getting used to but that's no different from any other car. What I did not do at all during the drive was play with the touchscreen. Next time I'm in a store/gallery I'll have to explore in a more systematic way.

Well, then that helps, but I will admit you don't get a lot of time during the drive to look over the interface and even I went back into the store afterward to flip through everything just to get a feel for it, because seeing pictures and doing it yourself makes a huge difference. But really, best car dash out there! I have seen BMW's dash and it sucks... Haven't seen Mercedes in person, but from looking at pictures it looks awful. The layout for Tesla is one of the areas I feel Tesla has all competition beat out by a long shot and with software updates it will only get better!

 

[ecarfan]

For EVs to get mass adoption we need to dummy-proof the EV experience. A person should be able to drive whatever way they are used to and they shouldn't have to "plan" their trips, if at all possible. They should be able to just get up and go and know for sure that they will make it to the next Supercharger because the car is guaranteeing that it will happen. In other words, software should do its part in eliminating range anxiety. I think Tesla will release this functionality, hopefully sooner the better.

I am confident the software capability you describe will be released this year, and in less than two years the Supercharger network in North America and Western Europe will be ubiquitous, making this discussion seem like ancient history.

 

[sbronle1]

Driving the Model S is like Scuba Diving really. It is not rocket science although it may seem like it at first. Dive tables are simple and give plenty of leeway for error in calculations if one uses them properly. I have been diving all of my life and I have always enjoyed doing the simple calculations for a well planned dive. In this case it is not the diving experience but the Tesla driving experience. It really is not difficult but can add an element of fun to planning trips. If the trip is planned ahead of time there should be no range anxiety. I would agree that for those who want a brainless excursion, this may not yet be the car for them. I have no doubt that Tesla will adapt to systems that make travel more "brainless" in the near future. Tesla was brilliant bring a car to market that would appeal to smarter people that could manage "range anxiety" and could afford a car ten years ahead of the game. They have proven themselves beyond a shadow of any doubt in my mind. This will probably be my last car unless there happens to be an "EMP" event but then we would all be paralyzed, EV or ICE.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Me too not quoting the whole thing in the interest of space... reflecting on Dave's and Chicken's posts.

Not a Model S owner myself, so not talking from experience, but what you both say is my exact argument for a bigger battery pack every time we discuss that over these forums. Whenever we get there, one side is arguning that no one realy needs bigger batteries, i.e. more range, because 99% of the time people will not drive 300 miles a day. What I am usually arguing is that the Model S is the first EV where range is "good enough", that's partally why it's such a success. But it's just that: good enough.

We all know that 300 mile range is not really 300 unless you drive 55mph on a flat road, 72 Degrees F, no head wind. ICE owners don't have to care about these things even though the same laws of physics apply to them. My car does about 33.5mpg, but on the highway in Europe, when you are driving 130-140kmh, it will get as low as 23-25mpg (hope i am calculating mpg right, talking about 9-10l/100km instead of the normal 7l). But an ICE has a gas station every 30 miles with a 5-6 minute "recharge" time.

Now even if we had SC quality charging stations every 30 miles, with current batteries you can't get to a 6 minute full charge. You can charge to 50% in, say 15-20min, but means you have to do the math if that's going to be enough and then still sweat like Dave to make sure you have enough juice.

So a 100-120kwh battery is not needed because peopel drive 400 miles most of their lives. It is need so you don't have to worry about making it using normal highway speeds, AC on, going uphill if you need to, even if there is strong headwind. It is needed to get to a 300 mile highway range.

As the Model S has been designed and specced about 4 years ago, I'm sure they could already boost the 85kwh pack today just because of the standard rate of improvements in batteries.

Either way, Dave's suggested software updates/feature makes a lot of sense.

 

[Robert.Boston]

There are corners of the lower 48 where even gas stations aren't ubiquitous, and large tracts of Alaska and Canada that will likely never have superchargers for the simple reason that the electric grid doesn't go there.

But for most drivers, I agree that some combination of greater charger density, faster charging rate, and larger batteries will be needed for widespread adoption. This can be managed to an extent with software, but how many people start their drive by programming in their destination? And how often does that destination change along the way? There are limits to how helpful software can be in providing the flexible driving experience that we're used to from gasoline.

 

[chickensevil]

The other thing about a bigger pack is that it will recharge the "lower half" faster since the limitations on lithium is currently a max 2c rate, a 100kw pack can safely charge at 200kWh verses a 60 kW pack being capped at 120kWh. In addition to a bigger input pipe, you would get more miles faster even at a 120kWh recharge on a 100kW pack verses an 85kW pack. This is because your ramp to slow it down would be at a higher percentage and each percentage equals more miles. So getting 125 miles in 20 minutes turns into say, 150 or 160 in 20 minutes.

In this way even if your destinations remain fixed for charge locations, you would still be inclined to stop to recharge at those same stops, but now your time charging is going to be a shorter proposition. It won't matter if the next stop is 120 miles and you happen to put in 160 since the time to get there was insignificant. Same reason you don't try to save 2 minutes at the gas pump by just filling the car with *just enough* fuel to make it to your next scheduled stop.

Anyway, I am a big supporter of larger packs for just that reason... It doesn't have anything at all to do with the top end getting extended... Because I am NOT going to drive 300 miles without stopping for some reason... It is all about the quicker charge on the bottom end where it counts.

 

[Ryo]

Dave, just wanted to express my appreciation for these megaposts you've written on your long term views of Tesla. They very informative and a pleasure to read.

Now, I'm hoping you've got some Q2 predictions to share? :smile:

 

[DaveT]

Dave, just wanted to express my appreciation for these megaposts you've written on your long term views of Tesla. They very informative and a pleasure to read.

Now, I'm hoping you've got some Q2 predictions to share? :smile:

I expect Tesla to meet their guidance for Q2, which was:
- "We expect to deliver about 7,500 Model S vehicles"
- "We also plan to produce 8,500 to 9,000 cars in the quarter"
- "we expect to only lease about 200 cars in Q2"
- "We expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin to increase slightly from Q1 to Q2"
- "Q2 operating expenses are expected to grow sequentially by about 30% for R&D and 15% for SG&A"
- "we expect to be marginally profitable in Q2 on a non- GAAP basis"

Overall, the big numbers are the "about 7500" vehicles delivered and being "marginally profitable" on a non-GAAP basis. We haven't heard of any production problems in Q2, so I'm expecting that Tesla was able to produce the 8,500-9,000 they were expecting and deliver the 7,500 cars they were expecting as well. I think it's possible they could deliver a few hundred more cars than 7,500, but it's also possible they delivered just around 7,500 cars as well in the event that they grew their pipeline (cars in transit) like they guided.

The next biggest item for Q2 ER will be guidance for Q3 and Q4. We know Tesla will have to push deliveries in Q3 and Q4 in order to meet their 35,000 cars delivered guidance. If Tesla delivered 6457 cars in Q1 2014 and 7700(?) cars in Q2 2014, then they will need to deliver 20,843 cars in Q3 and Q4. I'm expecting Q3 guidance to be strong with guidance of at least 9,000 cars delivered (that would mean they would need to deliver about 11,000 in Q4).

The other important items would be an update on Gigafactory (ie., site selection, Panasonic, etc) and also Model X.

Overall, I feel pretty good going into Q2 ER. The main question will be does Q2 ER strengthen the Tesla story (ie., faith in Tesla's ability to execute) or weaken it, since so much of Tesla's stock price is based on Tesla's ability to execute their plan over the next several years.

 

[mershaw2001]

i would add that we know china is a huge focus, so most likely they will attempt to hit the number they guided and no more for deliveries, and just use the extra to stuff the pipeline to china. also there is some word that the average sales price will come in at 108k.