Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead

[sleepyhead]

Happy to see you bullish again, sleepy. Is it worth selling some solars to buy TSLA?

Sleepy. Thanks for your insight. My feeling is that we linger in the 109-122 range but probably much closer top of that range until another positive or negative (hopefully not) catalyst arises. If nothing happens until Q4ER, then that will be the catalyst.

Recently you were of the opinion that there was a better risk/reward ratio with many of the solar companies compared to TSLA. Given TSLAs recent drop and your prediction above do you feel that new money going into the market would be better placed in solars or TSLA?

Most of my money is still in solar, but now I have about 20% TSLA exposure if I had to guess. It was virtually 0% just a week and a half ago. I have been buying mostly options, so it makes sense for me to buy some TSLA now. TSLA is down 38% and its IV is lower than solar options. So from this stand point TSLA has become attractive again and that is why I can justify buying TSLA.

When it comes to shares, there is no doubt in my mind that solar still represents the better short term risk/reward ratio. Some of these stocks are so cheap, such as SOL, that (barring a major recession) there really isn't much downside risk if you have at least a 12 month investment horizon. I can't say the same thing for TSLA though, because as much as I believe in Tesla, if this fire problem becomes worse it could really hurt the company. I see a lot more risk with TSLA and still less upside than with some of the solar companies (but you have to do your research to know which ones to pick and when).

Even though I am buying TSLA, I hope that there are no more fires or other mechanical problems, and I am hoping that the stock continues its downward spiral. That is my style of investing: when I buy a stock, I pray that it goes down so I can get more of it cheaper. I liked TSLA at $139, so I like it a lot more at $120. I will love TSLA at $110.

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4. Every paycheck that contributed into my 401k was an extra 100 shares of SPWR; it was so cheap that I didn't even mind the ~2% transaction fee on such low dollar purchases. Now I would need about 8 paychecks worth of 401k contributions to buy 100 shares of SPWR. I like it when my stocks go down, unless of course I am already 100% all in. But even when I was 100% solar, I still diversified among 4 or 5 companies.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Remember what the near future will bring: 40k cars in 2014, 80k in 2015. Think how the market is going to react when this happens.

I remember strongly believing these things prior to Q3 ER, but afterwards I haven't felt anywhere near 100% sure anymore. At least now there is more upside potential if this (or better!) does indeed become realized.

NHTSA investigation will come back with a report that Model S is the safest car in the world and that no changes are necessary (unless there is a few more debris fires prior to conclusion of investigation). This will be a big catalyst for TSLA, but by the time they announce the results the stock could already be a lot higher, depending on how long the investigation takes. On the other hand if the investigation drags for months and takes the stock price down with it, I will be very happy and buying more; especially if there are no new fires.

I believe you are right. The chance that you aren't though scares me (and apparently all the people selling). Even if there's <1% chance of NHTSA forcing some kind of major recall or we start seeing a large number of fires occurring the results could be disastrous in regards to public perception even though the actual financial results are survivable and lead to a severely undervalued stock price for quite some time.

They say to be greedy when other are fearful. I was pretty good at this from $34 up to $194, buying dips and not selling. Since then I feel like I've been stupid when others are fearful. Too bad I'm too much of a novice to know the difference. Luckily the higher TSLA went the more I took out of short term options. As far as realized losses I don't have too much to complain about.

I want to believe Tesla really will be a major auto manufacturer some day and having a Model S helps me believe it's possible. If I hadn't sold out some options and gotten a Model S I'd probably sold out everything a long time ago. As for now I'm thinking I might buy some Jan 16 LEAPS if it goes down towards $110 and nothing new comes out in the bad news department. That gives plenty of time for things to work out even if things get much worse from here before they get better. Otherwise I am happy right now with my current portfolio allocation to TSLA (today came out to 33.3%). Each day that goes by is one more day closer to the Q4 ER with hopefully awesome 2014 guidance.

Thank you for your positive post.

 

[fjm9898]

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4.

This is how i am playing SOL right now. Just bought a couple hundred more shares today and averaged down a bit. If they tank on the ER for some dumb reason, i am going to buy more.
Sleepy, did you see the video i posted in the solar thread? whats your take on the hate that guys is slinging?

 

[sleepyhead]

I remember strongly believing these things prior to Q4 ER, but afterwards I haven't felt anywhere near 100% sure anymore. At least now there is more upside potential if this (or better!) does indeed become realized.

I assume you meant Q3 ER. But why are you not as sure anymore? I think you are letting negative sentiment getting into your head. That is why it is so hard to make proper investment decisions in the stock market. If the stock goes back up to $150 next, I would bet that you will start thinking that these goals are attainable, by which time it will be too late to buy. You really have to get greedy when others are fearful

TSLA is down 38%, and I had a goal of 40%-50% before bottoming out. So the $110 mark will fit that perfectly at 43%.

Can you please tell me why you don't believe in 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015? What has changed in two weeks? Are supplier constraints going to last a lot longer than expected? Do you think demand will go down and become an issue? Curious to hear why you changed your mind.

- - - Updated - - -

This is how i am playing SOL right now. Just bought a couple hundred more shares today and averaged down a bit. If they tank on the ER for some dumb reason, i am going to buy more.
Sleepy, did you see the video i posted in the solar thread? whats your take on the hate that guys is slinging?

For some reason CNBC videos do not play on my laptop, and they don't work on mobile either (CNBC really needs to get on with technology). I updated flash today and emptied out the cache and yet I still can't get the movies to work. Any other way to watch it? Youtube version?

I agree on SOL. JASO is another must buy if for some reason it tanks post ER.

 

[fjm9898]

best i could do is get the transcript from the interview

john ficktorn is the founder of the company. john, welcome. great to welcome you to cnbc and the halftime show.

thanks for having me.

it's been difficult to be a short seller in this market. i don't need to tell you or any of the short focus hedge funds, and it's, you know, likely to continue or not.

well, you know, i can't call the exact top. we think the opportunity with any kind of reasonable timeframe now is really the best we've seen since starting our firm ten years ago, and really since i've been doing this since '95, and i was a short seller in the middle of the internet bubble, and in many ways, this is more competing, because it makes less sense that we're here today.

because of the fed and all it's done to spur this rally?

yeah, to a large degree, easy money drives bubbles, but here, you have a bubble that is largely driven without fundamentals in certain areas, and so, you have this crazy bifurcated market where you have incredibly cheap stocks and incredibly expensive stocks, really inside the same sector. and when the easy-money period ends, and maybe even before, as we see the fundamentals soften, you'll have the opportunity to make a lot of money on the short side.

yeah. you know, a great column, in which you're quoted, this is it, it's the bottom of the ninth. when do you know the fat pitch is coming?

you know, if i knew that, i wouldn't still be working, right?

you've got to be sensing -- if you make a statement like that, you've got to feel like we're awfully close to seeing something come right down the middle.

we see it in a lot of the stock action, whether you look at the sass group or 3-d printing over the last couple of days or some of the solar stocks that we also think are in bubble territory, these are reflated bubbles, and we're getting near a top, and you're seeing decent numbers, but they're noteating or raising, but in some cases lowering. no matter what, the stocks are selling off after they report. seeing the lack of momentum is a sign that, you know, the ship is starting to waiver.

we just ran through a bunch of names that have had tremendous gains, at least 100% on the year. what's your thoughts on a netflix, for example? on a best buy, with a big short interest there? on a micron?

well, you know, i could give you a short story on each one of those companies, whether it's based on free cash flow or the commodity commentaries around micron and capacity coming on, which it will do. or in best buy. you know, those aren't our focused positions right now, and so, i don't want to necessarily go out and speak outside of my bali wick.

but you're basically saying, are you short 3-d? 3-d, ddd right now?

i am short 3-d. and we think the entire sector is -- i mean, 3-d systems looks like almost a cheap stock on a price to sells multiple compared to say, vox on inovo, but it's had a 5 to 10x multiple expansion on a revenue basis and doesn't generate any profits, certainly not any free cash flow. so this is a bubble that's happened three times in the past. this isn't the first time you've seen a 3-d printing bubble. the industry has been around for 20 years. even the chairman of hon high called it a gimmick. it's an industry with low i.p., low profitability, and it just captures image nags, and we think it's about run its course at this point.

sounds like you're short first solar, as well.

you know, first -- first solar isn't our focus in the solar space. we think the chinese solar companies and even some of the other ones are bigger shorts, although first solar will have its day of reckoning, as well. but the chinese solar stocks, and the whole group, is up 300% this year. you know, this is a bubble that also, like 3-d printing, has burst in the past. it blew up in 2011. it's a pure commodities space. and today, capacity is in the 60 gigawatt range and demand is below 40 gigawatts. you can't have a supply/demand imbalance like that and make any money. and so, ultimately, the stocks will do exactly what they did in 2011, and they're going to correct again. and it's a great opportunity if you can, you know, if you can trade around the momentum and be there at the right time.

 

[sleepyhead]

Thanks for the transcript. This guy is spewing typical FUD on solar. Solar stocks up 300%, therefore they must come down. The only reason they are up so much is because they were priced below $100m market cap on $1b+ in sales. CSIQ is up 1400% in the last 12 months.

I know its FUD when he says 60GW of capacity and less than 40GW of Demand. That 60GW of capacity has been thrown around for 3 years now, and actual capacity is a lot lower. Mothballed capacity cannot come on-line because it is outdated and would need $millions to get the lines updated, which they can't afford to do because Chinese banks are not borrowing to losers and only tier 1 companies get loans. Actual module capacity is 45GW according to solarbuzz. And demand might hit 50GW next year according to them. The most likely scenario is a shortage of panels, which will lead to huge profits.

In order to produce modules, you need cells, which require wafers, which require polysilicon. According to Deutsche Bank there will be a small shortage of poly in 2014 if demand reaches 45GW. There will be a big (good) problem/shortage if demand reaches 50GW.

This guy is spewing FUD so that he can get into these solar stocks at a cheaper price. He realized that he missed the boat on solar and now he wants to get in at a discount. He knows that JKS is going to $50 and if he buys at $32, that is "only" a 50% gain. But if he can get in at $25, that is 100% gain. Either that or he is just clueless. But I doubt that money managers are really that stupid to go short an industry based on incorrect data and information. I am a part time small money investor and I have figured out the solar sector all by myself.

Typical FUD on the industry that scares away the retail investors, so that the big money guys can make money. The retail investor doesn't understand solar, so he believes what he hears from these "professionals" on CNBC and they sell. If I had time I would investigate these people myself and then bring a case against them to the SEC. I am sure that if you tracked what they said, and then what they bought, you will probably find that they are doing exactly the opposite of what they say they are doing.

2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.

 

[fjm9898]

interesting note - Use Options For A Chance To Buy JKS At A 69% Discount - TheStreet
i have never done put plays like this.
Seems like a safe way to play JKS, i bet just buying shares of even Calls will net you larger returns. what your take sleepy?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I assume you meant Q3 ER.

Thanks, fixed.

Can you please tell me why you don't believe in 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015? What has changed in two weeks? Are supplier constraints going to last a lot longer than expected? Do you think demand will go down and become an issue? Curious to hear why you changed your mind.

I really like your investment style and agree with what you have said. Long term I really believe in Tesla still and I think that's my one advantage in investing in TSLA.

From what I remember Elon said the constraints should get solved by early 2014. He said this a while ago (sorry don't remember how long, a couple months ago?) and when he said it I laughed to myself and considered it serious sandbagging. Since then we really haven't had any good indications that this statement will turn out to be true or not? I was really hoping for some kind of bone thrown to us at the Q3 ER. Q1 2014 starts in just over a month. Each day that goes by is one more day closer with me wondering if they're going to solve these issues in a timely manner. If they do solve the issues how fast can they ramp up? Elon has stated he wants to "test demand." This would be awesome, but what's the roadmap for being able to do so? I really don't know what is needed for Elon to do what he said he will do. He has achieved miracle after miracle so there's really no reason he won't come through on what probably isn't a big issue. Then again, if it wasn't a big issue why hasn't it been fixed yet? If they are making progress on these constraints why are there no updates? Are we just going off hope? The Q3 ER, as Julian Cox said, was an awesome story told in the worst possible way. Listening to it made me feel like Elon is hiding something or knows something bad that we don't. He was probably just tired but who knows? The only thing we really have going for us in this area that I can think of is that they've made excellent progress on getting towards 25% GM. I hope you have an answer to all of this that can strengthen my resolve but that is how I feel right now. As far as negative sentiment, I do in fact think a lack of positive news is affecting me. That's why I like reading positive posts from people like you.

I really don't think demand is an issue nor will it ever be, fires or not. One cool thing of having a Model S is I get to show it off to people. Seeing the Tesla grin reminds me that this car will not get old for a long time.

To summarize, it's not that I don't believe 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015, it's just my confidence in such has been lowered a bit. I still think it's going to happen but not to enough degree that I want to play with any type of options yet. I still have all my original stock I bought in the $30s and plan to keep it.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Don't know if it has been said in an other thread, but I think Model X will be a hit, especially after the whole debris-fire saga, because of the higher clearance. I wouldn't be surprised that it will outsell Model S. Elon has said that there will be some changes coming to the design of the Model X, that people will like. What we really need is a well timed reveal of the Model X beta.

 

[sleepyhead]

Don't know if it has been said in an other thread, but I think Model X will be a hit, especially after the whole debris-fire saga, because of the higher clearance. I wouldn't be surprised that it will outsell Model S. Elon has said that there will be some changes coming to the design of the Model X, that people will like. What we really need is a well timed reveal of the Model X beta.

I agree. Even though the Model S is a very nice car, I have no use for it. The Model X on the other hand is something that I want to buy for my wife and kids for their protection as well as utility. It will be the perfect vehicle and I think it will get 100/100 from consumer reports.

Once Model X comes out TSLA's stock will take off like crazy once again.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I agree. Even though the Model S is a very nice car, I have no use for it. The Model X on the other hand is something that I want to buy for my wife and kids for their protection as well as utility. It will be the perfect vehicle and I think it will get 100/100 from consumer reports.

Once Model X comes out TSLA's stock will take off like crazy once again.

Agreed. If the Gen III was out I most likely would never have gotten a Model S, I was just too impatient to wait for it. I find it very easy to justify the price tag for the Model X once you take into account the utility and safety for transporting kids and the greatly amplified gas savings you would get compared to a similar sized vehicle. My gas savings for having a Model S aren't too significant as my previous car was a Prius C.

Model X will be quite the hit.

 

[kenliles]

Agreed. If the Gen III was out I most likely would never have gotten a Model S, I was just too impatient to wait for it. I find it very easy to justify the price tag for the Model X once you take into account the utility and safety for transporting kids and the greatly amplified gas savings you would get compared to a similar sized vehicle. My gas savings for having a Model S aren't too significant as my previous car was a Prius C.

Model X will be quite the hit.

I concur- ModX will match ModS in volume a least;
I'm in a similar camp, but due to financial considerations opted to wait for GENIII, and I will likely push that out to the ModX version of it (Xover). Guessing that will take an extra year or so. I think the AWD is another factor for lots of folks

 

[fjm9898]

sorry wrong thread.

 

[brysondad]

Most of my money is still in solar, but now I have about 20% TSLA exposure if I had to guess. It was virtually 0% just a week and a half ago. I have been buying mostly options, so it makes sense for me to buy some TSLA now. TSLA is down 38% and its IV is lower than solar options. So from this stand point TSLA has become attractive again and that is why I can justify buying TSLA.

When it comes to shares, there is no doubt in my mind that solar still represents the better short term risk/reward ratio. Some of these stocks are so cheap, such as SOL, that (barring a major recession) there really isn't much downside risk if you have at least a 12 month investment horizon. I can't say the same thing for TSLA though, because as much as I believe in Tesla, if this fire problem becomes worse it could really hurt the company. I see a lot more risk with TSLA and still less upside than with some of the solar companies (but you have to do your research to know which ones to pick and when).

Even though I am buying TSLA, I hope that there are no more fires or other mechanical problems, and I am hoping that the stock continues its downward spiral. That is my style of investing: when I buy a stock, I pray that it goes down so I can get more of it cheaper. I liked TSLA at $139, so I like it a lot more at $120. I will love TSLA at $110.

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4. Every paycheck that contributed into my 401k was an extra 100 shares of SPWR; it was so cheap that I didn't even mind the ~2% transaction fee on such low dollar purchases. Now I would need about 8 paychecks worth of 401k contributions to buy 100 shares of SPWR. I like it when my stocks go down, unless of course I am already 100% all in. But even when I was 100% solar, I still diversified among 4 or 5 companies.

you can buy individual stocks in your 401k? or do you mean your ira? If 401k, that's a hell of a plan you got there

 

[AlMc]

Many 401Ks offer very flexible plans. The one I run for my small business allows it. There is a restriction on options but that was just recently added.

 

[sleepyhead]

you can buy individual stocks in your 401k? or do you mean your ira? If 401k, that's a hell of a plan you got there

My company didn't allow this, but we had a few focu group meetings in different locations on different dates for different employees to discuss 401k options going forward. The main goal of this was to see if we are still happy with our provider, but I brought up the topic of allowing brokerage accounts to select individual stocks, and got everyone else on board.

Then I told my friend to go to a different focus group meeting to bring up the same topic. So overall the feed back seemed like everybody wanted this option (which is true, they just won't express this opinion by themselves or don't care) and my company added the option a couple of years ago. It is for long only positions. No margin, options, shorting, etc.

My 401k is up over 400% YTD. Glad I lobbied hard for the brokerage option. Now I have a chance to actually retire some day

 

[sleepyhead]

TSLA Sentiment Reversal and the Wealth of Knowledge on TMC

First of all I wanted to thank everyone on TMC for their relentless research on Tesla and TSLA. There truly is an unparalleled wealth of knowledge on this forum and I hope that everyone here is taking advantage of this as much as I am.

My TSLA Comeback
This next piece of information is about my TSLA purchases and how I went from virtually no TSLA exposure on Nov. 10 to roughly 50% exposure at the beginning of December. I hope that some of you find this useful in implementing future strategies:

Ever since TSLA dipped below $140 I have been cashing out some of my solar gains and started buying a little bit of TSLA virtually every day over a three week period ending this Monday Dec. 2, just before the magnificent Tesla Tuesday. I made my first purchases on Tuesday, November 11 after Tesla dipped back into the $130s; I have been buying mostly Jan '16 options along with shares and June '14 options with some Jan '15 options.

Only a couple of my purchases from Nov. 11 are still slightly under water (even though I bought them in the $130's and now TSLA is above $140 = a lesson in volatility + time premium). But I made most of my purchases when TSLA was around $120 and actually was able to buy a Jun $155 option when TSLA was at the bottom around $116 for $9.50, now it is worth almost $18 for a quick double; you really have to be greedy when others are fearful. Most of my purchases have been Jan '16 options in the $210 - $260 range and as of right now I hold almost all of the 52-week lows in that range; I hope that for all our sake it stays that way till expiration.

Wealth of Knowledge on TMC

Even though Curt Renz was a little quick to call the bottom on Nov. 11 at $140 based on his gut feeling, he quickly redeemed himself on Nov. 18 at $120. This time he used his (extensive) knowledge on technical analysis and claimed that TSLA bottomed out based on the golden (Fibonacci) ratio of 0.618034. Based on this ratio TSLA would bottom out after a 38.2% decline which coincided with the $120 mark.

Then after a series of positive news (after which TSLA kept going down) culminated by the Deutsche Bank research note reiterating its $200 PT, the stock went up 6% to $127 on Wednesday Nov. 27 just before Thanksgiving. I thought that the good times were over and that my chances to accumulate TSLA on the cheap were over. At that time I had about 75% solar and 25% TSLA. I thought that DB called that bottom and posted it here on Thanksgiving day:

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat - Page 59

If you scroll down and flip to the next page, you will see that two prominent members here, DaveT and Norse, both agreed that this was the bottom; this was the confirmation that I needed to know that this is the (at least temporary) bottom. The next day, Friday, TSLA crossed the $130 mark in intraday trading, and I thought for sure that the good times of buying TSLA cheap are over, but then it slowed down a little before closing just slightly in the green.

The following Monday TSLA was showing weakness, so I quickly made my final wholesale purchases of TSLA; after all I was sure that we hit the bottom since my conviction was enforced by Curt's, DaveT's, and Norse's opinions. I was ecstatic that TSLA was trading at $124 on Monday. I took one of my wife's retirement accounts that was virtually 100% CSIQ and flipped it to 100% TSLA (still have a ton of CSIQ exposure, so no worries to CSIQ holders). I also bought some TSLA in my 401k and now it makes up a good chunk of that portfolio as well. My best purchase that day came towards the end of the trading day (usually the best time to buy options for those wondering - best time to sell is usually in the first 10 minutes of trading, but not always): I bought some June $160 options for $10.20. It was getting close to 4pm EST, and I checked the options price out of curiosity and I say bid/ask of $10.00/$10.20. I put in a limit order for full ask price as quick as I could, since I couldn't believe how cheap these options were (two days after DB called the bottom). The next day they were up about 70% and are still up 60% today.

For the newbie options traders: after TSLA first hit $120 options were going down in price, but did not get really cheap until 5-10 days due to consolidation, i.e. low volatility.

After TSLA went back to $140 the day after Germany cleared Tesla of any manufacturing defects (as well as bullish research notes from Morgan Stanley and Jeffries?), I quickly started selling some Jan '14 deep OTM options against my Jun '14 options as well as my J '15 options to raise cash to buy back some solar now that the sector has corrected about 20%; it still might go a little lower but I can't imagine anything more that 5%-10%. My goal is for those Jan '14's to expire worthless and then sell other calls in the future to continue raising cash.

What could have been
This past Tuesday (16% gain day closing price above $144) TSLA started out trading up "only" 6% in the low $130’s in the early minutes post market open. I knew that this will be the day of a huge TSLA run, because great stocks that are beaten down 40% tend to go up 20% on huge positive news days like this one. Even though I knew this, I once again failed to buy weekly OTM call options to take advantage of the situation. E.g. I could have bought the $145 weeklies for $0.15 in early trading and then sold them for a 20 bagger return by the end of the day.

I am very disappointed because even though I knew it will most likely be a huge day for TSLA I failed to make the correct options purchase decision. The problem is that it never crossed my mind to do so (failed once again) even though I mentally prepared myself for such an opportunity after missing the previous SCTY 22% move in a day. The day SCTY announced 2014 guidance I knew that the stock would go gangbusters, but it opened up only a few percentage points up (less than 10%). At the end of that trading day I realized that you could have bought the weekly $50’s for $0.05 early in the day and sold them for a 40 bagger return by the end of the day. I wasn’t upset with myself back then, because it wasn’t until the end of the trading day that I did some back testing and realized this opportunity. But I vowed not to miss a similar opportunity in the future, but I did with TSLA this past Tuesday. I am mad, because it completely skipped my mind and instead I made a different losing trade that morning with the cash I had. Just shows how hard trading really is; you may try to read, study, analyze, and learn everything there is on trading but all of that knowledge is useless if you fail to execute.

Summary
Even though I got a little bit off track with my post, what I really wanted to point out is that there are a lot of great people here on TMC and I wanted to thank everyone for their contributions. I also hope that a lot of people have bought a lot of TSLA in the $120’s (or lower) and that at least some people here on TMC realized that a lot of prominent posters all called the bottom at or near $120. I realized this and that is why I took advantage of the last great buying opportunity on Monday. Thanks again.

Potential downside
Even though I think that the sentiment has turned for TSLA to bullish there is still a real risk of more downside. The only two things I see dragging TSLA down would be:

• Big market correction, which is possible but all of the economic news looks very, very positive to me. The market has been shaky because it fears tapering. Tapering will not happen in Dec. Bernanke will leave that decision to Yellen, because it would not be fair to start the taper on his last day in office. He has to leave those cards available to the new FOMC Chair. In the end tapering will not matter; all that matters is economy and right now signs point that it is getting a lot better.
• Unforeseen big negative catalyst such as a mandatory recall, third debris fire, Goldman upgrade to $97 PT, etc.

Therefore, IMO there will not be any big market correction (more than 10%); and you cannot always fear that an unforeseen negative news story might unfold. In the end the odds favor the longs and TSLA has become a good stock once again. I still think we are stuck in the $135 - $155 range until we hear from NHTSA or other positive catalyst such as 2014 guidance, Model X reveal, etc. The good news is that such an announcement can also come any day: I think that the SCTY news today on battery storage is HUGE for TSLA and the market completely failed to price this in properly. Elon even tweeted:

Should mention that the battery cells used for this are 200 Wh/kg vs 250 for Model S. No short term supply constraint.

So it will not take away any batteries from the Model S. Another huge business opportunity (a lot bigger than making cars) and the market completely missed this one. The markets are not efficient one bit, this is where TSLA will make all of the easy money without huge capital expenditures (outside of giga battery factory which is needed for cars anyway). These storage devices are a huge deal, because they are higher margin than selling cars with a lot less headache and capital expenditures.

Elon confirms that Chinese Demand for Model S is Indeed Huge
I am disappointed that nobody on TMC talks about this (unless I missed a thread or discussion on this somewhere), but Elon basically confirmed on the CC that demand in China is huge, really huge.

Order now and wait 6 month or order 6 months from now and wait a lot longer.

That is not exactly what he said, but that is how I interpreted the message.

I didn’t have time to proof read, so I hope that this message is at least somewhat cohesive.

Happy investing everyone.

 

[DaveT]

Sleepy, thanks for your post. Always love reading what you have to say.

 

[kenliles]

Fantastic detail synopsis of your thoughts and process sleepy. Extremely helpful reference. Thanks so much for sharing that

Edit
And I agree, key group of contributors make this forum extremely useful! Thanks to those and all contributors!

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepy, thanks for your post. Always love reading what you have to say.

And vice versa!

BTW, I have lost paper profits over the past month like everybody else here. My portfolio was down 50% in two weeks before TSLA saved me a little. That is my strategy: up 200% down 50%, up 300% down 60%. I just hope that my strategy works in the end. I am learning a lot of new trading strategies form experiencing with different trades. I just make up my own trading strategies and feel like I am making better decisions with each passing day. My portfolio experiences huge volatility, but I think there is a potentially bigger payoff in the end (or bigger loss).

In a vacuum my individual trade may seem idiotic, but when you take all of my trades and open positions into account across all portfolios then each individual purchase is just a piece of my overall investment puzzle. That is why I don't like to share individual trades with people here. I make some trades that I hope end up losers, so I wouldn't want any one following me into that trade.