I do not generally agree with brysondad, but he's right. There isn't anything special in the china comments. He's saying order now or wait more later. This was the case with early model s orders too, and will probably be the case even moreso in a country where the cars aren't being built. This is not a hint on china demand.
But like I said last time, I'm still betting big on china demand. It will be crazy huge. But that is not what Elon is saying here.
1. Not many people here agree with brysondad, because all of his posts on TMC have one goal in common and that is to spread doubt and point out negatives on TSLA the stock. All of his posts look for negatives on TSLA. He is probably short the stock (which I have no problem with) and only talks negatively about the stock.
Even though I was familiar with his previous posts I decided to respond to him politely. But he followed with a snarky comment that can be taken as an attack, so I will be ignoring him from now on.
2. You cannot say that "he's right". You are now talking in absolutes here, so if you want to do that then I can play that way too and say that you are wrong; both of you.
3. Here is what you wrote and you are clearly wrong (now that we are talking in absolutes):
I'm certain that China demand is huge, but what he said in the conference call is that if you wait to order, all it will do is make you get your car later. This is standard procedure, and was similar with the Model S - people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009. Basically, the longer you wait to order your car, the longer you'll be waiting to get the car. Also, the line in China is only getting longer, and quite quickly since it's getting closer and closer to production. It's likely that the line will be getting longer at a faster rate than they can ship cars, at least to start, such that the wait time will keep increasing even a couple months after the car has been launched there.
But I don't think that CC thing was anything surprising. It was just a general forecast on how things will go, based on how things went with the Model S here and perhaps also in Europe. I wouldn't read it as a confirmation of anything.
That said, Chinese demand will be huge. I'd bet on it. Oh wait, I have, I'm all-in on TSLA.
That is not what Elon said. This is what he said:
if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.
1."accelerating" demand means that orders are coming in faster than the day before.
2. "
the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait" means that you will have to wait 7 months if you order today (from order date to delivery). If you order next month, then you might have to wait 9 months (or at least more than 7 months from order date to delivery).
while you are "interpreting" it this way:
people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009
And you are wrong, because that is not what Elon is saying. He would not have gone through the trouble of using words like "accelerating" demand or "
In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like." If Elon meant what you are trying to say than it makes no sense to qualify that statement with "at least that's what it looks like"
I am sorry but what you are saying makes absolutely no common sense at all. Of course it is obvious that if you order a Model S today you will get it sooner than the guy who orders one tomorrow or next month (in most cases) or next year. You are making no sense at all, absolutely none.
