Assuming 8% annual improvement in range...

[VolkerP]

Interesting discussion so far. There will be driving scenarios where only the largest imaginable battery will work, and then some.

Want to add one point: The 270kWh battery in 2027 uses 35kW to fully charge over night. 20kW on board chargers will be completely useless. We will need a completely new charging infrastructure, on board and residential, where every charging process has a throughput comparable to a CHAdeMO station of today.

 

[Jhall118]

I don't see the market for a 800 mile car, especially one that would need to be charged at home every night. You could commute from San Francisco to LA and Back with 800 miles....

Totally Ridiculous. Also, increasing the weight (bigger battery) decreases the range. Where would you even put such a big battery?

300 miles of range with a fast charging route for road trips is indeed the sweet spot imo.

 

[LASpark]

I don't see the market for a 800 mile car, especially one that would need to be charged at home every night. You could commute from San Francisco to LA and Back with 800 miles....

Totally Ridiculous. Also, increasing the weight (bigger battery) decreases the range. Where would you even put such a big battery?

300 miles of range with a fast charging route for road trips is indeed the sweet spot imo.

It's only a 800 mile range if you drive 60 mph. Drive 80 mph and it's a lot less. It's possible now to drive from LA to SF in a Tesla. In 2027 it will not only be possible, it will be easy. No need to pay attention to the range, no stopping at SuperCharger stations, and you can have lunch wherever you want to. Technology never stops at making something possible, it only stops when something is easy.

Also, the 270 kWh battery in 2027 might weigh less and be smaller than the current 85 KWh battery. Electrons don't weigh much and they're very small. Computers have a lot more memory in them then they did 15 years ago, and computers did not get bigger, they got a lot smaller.

In 2027 most everyday electric cars will have a range of 265 miles and cost a lot less. The SuperCharger stations will still be crowded. However, people with $100,000 to spend on a car will still be able to spend it, and they will buy the convenience of a 800 mile range car.

@VolkerP: Dual chargers on a 100 A circuit can charge the current Tesla from empty to full in less than 5 hours. If the battery was 3 times larger, the same system could charge it in 15 hours. Not great, but not terrible either. The battery would rarely be completely empty and need to be completely full. I agree though that faster is better!

 

[Jhall118]

I. However, people with $100,000 to spend on a car will still be able to spend it, and they will buy the convenience of a 800 mile range car.

And yet, how many gasoline powered cars are out there with an 800 mile range? virtually all of them have the capability to, but the vast majority of them settle around 300-400 miles.

 

[LASpark]

And yet, how many gasoline powered cars are out there with an 800 mile range?

Gas cars can be refilled in 10 minutes anywhere, so it is less of an issue. Also, a listed range of 800 miles is at a speed that will get you run over in California.

 

[richkae]

There are benefits to the 500 mile version even if you don't plan on using it. Charging depends on capacity. Right now superchargers charge at 1.3x capacity. On a 265 model S, you might be able to charge 200 miles in 30 minutes. But on a 500 mile car you can charge 200 miles in 15 minutes or 400 miles in 30 minutes.(assuming the superchargers are upgraded to meet that power output).

So even if your not the kind of person who will travel 500 miles in 1 sitting, the benefits are there.

If in N years you can get a 170kWh battery with the mass and volume of todays 85kWh battery then you can make a 530 mile range car ( 2 x todays 265 )
However if you instead make an 85kWh battery with half the mass of todays battery - you could possibly have a 300 mile car because the 15% mass reduction of the car increases your range by decreasing your wh/mile 15% ( Not clear exactly what the improvement would be - the 15% range increase is an upper bound. )
If the superchargers are still 120kW then the 300 mile range car recharges 15% faster than the heavier 530 mile range car plugged in to the exact same supercharger.
There is a maximum amount of current you can put through a supercharger cable and connector - it may be higher than 120kW, but I don't think Tesla will instantly upgrade all the superchargers beyond 120kW if such an upgrade becomes available. If 170kWh cars are rare and most cars have smaller batteries, they may never increase the power of the superchargers beyond 120kW.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting discussion so far. There will be driving scenarios where only the largest imaginable battery will work, and then some.

Want to add one point: The 270kWh battery in 2027 uses 35kW to fully charge over night. 20kW on board chargers will be completely useless. We will need a completely new charging infrastructure, on board and residential, where every charging process has a throughput comparable to a CHAdeMO station of today.

That doesn't follow. You only need to charge overnight the energy you use in the day. Just because you have an 800 mile range car doesn't mean you are going to empty it every day.
With a 10kW plug you can recharge 120kW in 12 hours - which is good for 360 miles or so.
The average distance driven in the day is only 40 miles, and 360 miles will cover 99% of driving days.
If you manage to drive more than that in one day AND need to drive more than that the next day, then you stop at a supercharger somewhere on your trip.

 

[Hache]

Gas cars can be refilled in 10 minutes anywhere, so it is less of an issue.

But maybe that'll be the case for electric cars in 10 years (swap stations).

 

[dirkhh]

But maybe that'll be the case for electric cars in 10 years (swap stations).

I don't think a swap station will be 10 minutes away. Nor do I think that a supercharger will be 10 minutes away.
There's a chance that semi-decent charging will be 10 minutes away - think 240V/80A - 20kW. That's enough to avoid being stranded. And I could see this being very widely deployed in 10 years. Restaurants, shopping opportunities, etc. Anyone who wants to attract customers for a couple of hours.

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

A less expensive ( half the price of the Model S ) 265 mile range car will open up a LOT more buyers than a 530 mile range car at the Model S price point.

There is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- that makes those two options exclusive of each other. Tesla can do both with zero obstacles.

An extreme example: If the energy density of the battery were to triple tomorrow for the same absolute cost (ie 3KWh tomorrow costs, weighs, and has volume equivalent to 1 KWh today), Tesla could very easily continue selling a 60 KWh car for a lot less money (and potentially at a much lighter weight if they do some retesting and recertifying), and simultaneously sell a 250 KWh car for a premium price, all based on the same chassis.

The single issue where they'd need to so additional testing and certifying is when they change the mass and balance of the battery... everything else, is just installing a different part into the car, and no more difficult than offering another paint color.

As an aside, there are plenty of people out there who regularly travel by driving four hours in the morning, stopping for lunch, driving four hours in the afternoon, and then stopping for the day. Lots of trips (Miami-Tampa, Miami-Orlando, Miami-Key West, Miami-Cape Canaveral...) need a real-world range of 250 miles at 375 Wh/mile or more. And you want at least a comfortable 50-mile reserve on arrival, which to me says there will be significant demand for a 100 KWh and a 120 KWh battery as soon as Tesla is able to supply them.

I'm not the average guy -- though maybe the average P85 buyer -- but I'd trade in my P85 if they offer a 100 KWh battery on the new ones. That would give me a real-world range of 265 miles at 375 Wh/mile, enabling me to drive the 230 miles between Miami and Orlando without stopping to supercharge and with a 30-mile reserve. Additional battery capacity does still offer significant new levels of flexibility, IMHO... sure there will be diminishing returns from additional capacity, but I think we've still got at least 3-4 capacity upgrades before Tesla needs to worry about there being insufficient demand for more range.

 

[dirkhh]

As an aside, there are plenty of people out there who regularly travel by driving four hours in the morning, stopping for lunch, driving four hours in the afternoon, and then stopping for the day. Lots of trips (Miami-Tampa, Miami-Orlando, Miami-Key West, Miami-Cape Canaveral...) need a real-world range of 250 miles at 375 Wh/mile or more. And you want at least a comfortable 50-mile reserve on arrival, which to me says there will be significant demand for a 100 KWh and a 120 KWh battery as soon as Tesla is able to supply them.

Now think Berlin - Munich for a moment. About 600km / 370miles. Usually driven at around 160km/h / 100mph (ok, that's optimistic, given traffic on the A9, but stay with me). So let's say 400Wh/mile to be super optimistic. That's 150kWh. And yes, people routinely drive this in their 535d without stopping (that car has a 600+ mile range, depending on how fast you drive).

 

[gregincal]

If there's anything that Tesla has shown, it's that letting the marketplace decide how much range they want is a much better strategy than deciding that a certain amount of range should be enough for them.

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

"640KB of RAM ought to be enough for anybody," right? Yes, letting the market decide is going to be the best path. Basically, they have to keep offering additional capacity as long and as far as it's feasible to do, and see when/if people stop ordering the largest battery available in significant numbers. Of course they also need to continue supplying something like a 60 KWh battery for cars that don't travel much, in order to reduce mass, cost, and waste as much as possible.

 

[callmesam]

There is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- that makes those two options exclusive of each other. Tesla can do both with zero obstacles.

An extreme example: If the energy density of the battery were to triple tomorrow for the same absolute cost (ie 3KWh tomorrow costs, weighs, and has volume equivalent to 1 KWh today), Tesla could very easily continue selling a 60 KWh car for a lot less money (and potentially at a much lighter weight if they do some retesting and recertifying), and simultaneously sell a 250 KWh car for a premium price, all based on the same chassis.

The single issue where they'd need to so additional testing and certifying is when they change the mass and balance of the battery... everything else, is just installing a different part into the car, and no more difficult than offering another paint color.

As an aside, there are plenty of people out there who regularly travel by driving four hours in the morning, stopping for lunch, driving four hours in the afternoon, and then stopping for the day. Lots of trips (Miami-Tampa, Miami-Orlando, Miami-Key West, Miami-Cape Canaveral...) need a real-world range of 250 miles at 375 Wh/mile or more. And you want at least a comfortable 50-mile reserve on arrival, which to me says there will be significant demand for a 100 KWh and a 120 KWh battery as soon as Tesla is able to supply them.

I'm not the average guy -- though maybe the average P85 buyer -- but I'd trade in my P85 if they offer a 100 KWh battery on the new ones. That would give me a real-world range of 265 miles at 375 Wh/mile, enabling me to drive the 230 miles between Miami and Orlando without stopping to supercharge and with a 30-mile reserve. Additional battery capacity does still offer significant new levels of flexibility, IMHO... sure there will be diminishing returns from additional capacity, but I think we've still got at least 3-4 capacity upgrades before Tesla needs to worry about there being insufficient demand for more range.

If you'd pay to upgrade, then why not pay to swap. $75/swap for a 150kWh battery. 90 seconds.

This is a great way to introduce a product that is very expensive. Keep the battery and pay the difference.

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Now think Berlin - Munich for a moment. About 600km / 370miles. Usually driven at around 160km/h / 100mph (ok, that's optimistic, given traffic on the A9, but stay with me). So let's say 400Wh/mile to be super optimistic. That's 150kWh. And yes, people routinely drive this in their 535d without stopping (that car has a 600+ mile range, depending on how fast you drive).

The 535d gets 20mpg at 100mph. 18.5 gallon tank = 370miles.

 

[jerry33]

If you'd pay to upgrade, then why not pay to swap. $75/swap for a 150kWh battery. 90 seconds.

Because it's the same problem as with Superchargers: There are many areas where they just aren't--even after all the dots are red there will still be many routes where it's just not practical to Supercharge (either non-existant or inconveniently out of the way). A 500 - 700 mile battery would solve most of those route problems. There will be far fewer battery swapping stations than Superchargers--and dollars to doughnuts there won't be any on the routes that don't have Superchargers.

 

[dirkhh]

If you'd pay to upgrade, then why not pay to swap. $75/swap for a 150kWh battery. 90 seconds.

This is a great way to introduce a product that is very expensive. Keep the battery and pay the difference.

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View attachment 30627

The 535d gets 20mpg at 100mph. 18.5 gallon tank = 370miles.

Thanks for proving my point. The 535d can indeed drive Berlin-Munich without stopping.
That's why Tesla will HAVE to offer larger batteries.

 

[callmesam]

Thanks for proving my point. The 535d can indeed drive Berlin-Munich without stopping.
That's why Tesla will HAVE to offer larger batteries.

Any wind on this exact 370 mile, 100mph cannonball run?

If yes, then you'll have to stop.

Cold?

Stop.

Hot?

Stop.

Any hills between Berlin and Munich?

Stop.

Oh and if everything goes exactly right and the car is tuned perfectly and you JUST changed your oil and belts and points then you might coast in with less than a liter of diesel.

If you topped off when you filled up.

:wink:

Any you would have paid $130.

 

[dirkhh]

Any wind on this exact 370 mile, 100mph cannonball run?

If yes, then you'll have to stop.

Cold?

Stop.

Hot?

Stop.

Any hills between Berlin and Munich?

Stop.

Oh and if everything goes exactly right and the car is tuned perfectly and you JUST changed your oil and belts and points then you might coast in with less than a liter of diesel.

If you topped off when you filled up.

:wink:

Any you would have paid $130.

You are entirely missing my point. As was obvious from the previous post already. No one drives a constant 100 miles per hour - many stretches have speed limit. You would NEVER make it with 400Wh/mile if you drove a constant 100 miles, either.
The point is in a very very popular luxury car in Germany, you can comfortably make this trip without having to stop.
That is what potential buyers will have as a frame of reference.Sure, you'd be driving an ICE, you'd pay at the pump, you'd have all these other differences. But the whole argument is not that the BMW is the better car (it is not - I drove one on my last visit to Germany a month ago). The point is that those of us that are saying "Tesla will need to bring a battery with a rated range of over 500miles" are not making things up but are basing that on actual real world use of a luxury car in that category.

 

[hileyms]

Have you seen this article from another thread?

In July 2013, Tesla filed Patent Applications: 20130181511 and 20130187591, the analyst notes. These patents relate to "Electric Vehicle Extended Range Hybrid Battery Pack System" and have Metal-Air Battery Pack and what Non-Metal Air Battery Pack components (see diagram).

According to the analyst, a hybrid battery pack could increase the range of Tesla vehicles by approximately 40% and increase battery life by approximately 30%.

Chowdhry sees the new hybrid battery pack available in the Model S in the middle of calendar year 2015.

Any idea what this is?

 

[Evpro2]

On the plus side:

*t he increased range, flexibility of charging, better handling of adverse conditions (heat and cold), mitigation of battery degradation.

On the minus side:

* increased initial cost, captive investment in current battery technology, significantly lower overall efficiency and possibly handling due to weight (diminishing returns). Towards the end of an 800 mile range you are carrying around a lot of dead battery mass.

I think the sweet spot will be 300-350 miles (250 for the GenIII) and a widely deployed SC network.

 

[Red]

In many ways, and that is one of the very few things I don't like about Tesla, Tesla has become somewhat of a patent troll and tries to patent everything, everywhere while the core
of its technology isn't really Tesla's and Tesla obtained it without paying to those who developed it so it isn't really a positive property. As for the battery, I think that the short term development by Tesla or aftermarket, will be an additional battery for a redone frunk or even rear trunk.
Same voltage and paralelled with the main unit.

But battery swaping is better, if available of course. Something tells me that in Germany, Tesla will try to offer it quickly just because it is a large market and there is a need.