Autonomous Car Progress

[electronblue]

Indeed the additional quotes are revealing too:

”By the middle of next year we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware feature complete at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could to sleep in your... from our standpoint if you fast forward a year... maybe a year and three months but next year for sure we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

 

[humbaba]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. He says that the reliability will be high enough that you can fall asleep while in the car! How is that not consistent with robotaxis?

I get where you are coming from, but safety is not navigation.

 

[humbaba]

My quotes came straight from Elon’s mouth (via video) and the context was not that one.

It is from the presentation quoted by @diplomat33 in #756.

It is around 3:05:20 on the official video.

Elon definitely expected operational robotaxi Teslas in 2020 somewhere.

Sorry, all i'm seeing is a screenshot, not an official video. Link?

 

[diplomat33]

My quotes came straight from Elon’s mouth (via video) and the context was not that one.

It is from the presentation quoted by @diplomat33 in #756.

It is around 3:05:20 on the official video.

Elon definitely expected operational robotaxi Teslas in 2020 somewhere.

@electronblue did quote Elon correctly.

”I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxi Teslas next year. Not all in jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere but I’m confident we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year.”

Basically, what Elon is saying is that he is confident that by end of next year, Tesla's FSD will be reliable enough that at least somewhere, Tesla will be able to remove the driver completely in that geofenced area. That's actually a lower bar than L5 autonomy. And I don't think it is a completely far fetched prediction. In other words, will FSD be good enough by end of 2020 that somewhere in the US, it can operate safely without a driver? Sure.

 

[humbaba]

Indeed the additional quotes are revealing too:

”By the middle of next year we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware feature complete at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could to sleep in your... from our standpoint if you fast forward a year... maybe a year and three months but next year for sure we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

Ah, so you are talking about investor day (that is where that quote comes from). I gave you a link that can help you understand the context if you don't get it from watching the video.

 

[humbaba]

@electronblue did quote Elon correctly.



Basically, what Elon is saying is that he is confident that by end of next year, Tesla's FSD will be reliable enough that at least somewhere, Tesla will be able to remove the driver completely in that geofenced area. That's actually a lower bar than L5 autonomy. And I don't think it is a completely far fetched prediction. In other words, will FSD be good enough by end of 2020 that somewhere in the US, it can operate safely without a driver? Sure.

Ah, but this is not robotaxi. Having FSD approved in some jurisdiction is not having robotaxis.

 

[diplomat33]

Sorry, all i'm seeing is a screenshot, not an official video. Link?

 

[humbaba]

Go to tesla.com and checkout the FSD feature list. It does not say "robotaxi" and the disconnect people are feeling here is because there is more required for robotaxi's than the product Tesla is selling as FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

Ah, but this is not robotaxi. Having FSD approved in some jurisdiction is not having robotaxis.

if the FSD is reliable enough that there is no human at all in the driver seat, then yes, that is a robotaxi. Elon is saying that he is confident that by end of 2020, FSD will be good enough that they can remove the driver complete at least in certain geofenced areas, hence it will be a robotaxi in that area.

 

[electronblue]

Ah, so you are talking about investor day (that is where that quote comes from). I gave you a link that can help you understand the context if you don't get it from watching the video.

Ah, but this is not robotaxi. Having FSD approved in some jurisdiction is not having robotaxis.

Of course I talked about the investor day? It was right beneath the quotes.

But most importantly: Elon was presenting the robotaxi app when he said the following. It was not a reference to FSD. It was a reference to operational robotaxis. It was 10 minutes prior to the discussion on FSD hardware more generally (the latter quote in #761).

”We expect to have the first operating robotaxis next year. With no one in them. Next year.”

”I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxi Teslas next year. Not all in jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere but I’m confident we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year.”

- Elon Musk, Autonomy Investor Day

 

[Daniel in SD]

I get where you are coming from, but safety is not navigation.

So, it will be safe enough for you to fall asleep but it will take you to a random location?

 

[humbaba]

Thanks, but that was because he claimed it wasn't autonomy day. I watched that and understood it. The, albeit extended, quote that is taken out of context is discussed in the link I already provided. I could requote that here, but -- really -- its just follow the link.

The short version is that Elon was talking live and if you interpret the quote the way you want it doesn't fit with what else he said. He accidentally missed a clarifying word. Big deal. There's a nice example just below that linked post of how what he says is taken out of context. Yes, the joke example is trivial, but it is the same here. Its a shame he didn't notice and restate, and that no one there was astute enough to understand and ask the obvious clarifying question.

But, hey, if you still want to insist that Musk promised robotaxis next year, or the year after, fine. Whatever.

 

[electronblue]

In other words, will FSD be good enough by end of 2020 that somewhere in the US, it can operate safely without a driver? Sure.

Yes, that is what Elon said to expect.

 

[electronblue]

Thanks, but that was because he claimed it wasn't autonomy day.

I’m confused. Where did anyone claim it wasn’t on autonomy day? Of course the quotes were from the autonomy day and we were even looking for and at transcripts from autonomy day over multiple messages.

 

[diplomat33]

@humbaba @electronblue

Let me try to help since I am a diplomat.

From Autonomy Day, there are two different quotes from Elon that we are discussing:

Quote #1 "We expect to have the first operating robotaxis next year. With no one in them. Next year.”

”I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxi Teslas next year. Not all in jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere but I’m confident we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year"

That quote is accurate. And in this quote, Elon is simply saying that FSD will be reliable enough by end of 2020 that Tesla will be able to remove the driver in some areas. So by end of 2020, some areas will have robotaxis but not everywhere.

Quote #2: "By the middle of next year we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware feature complete at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could to sleep in your... from our standpoint if you fast forward a year... maybe a year and three months but next year for sure we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

That quote is accurate but would seem to be saying something different from the quote above. Elon seems to be saying that Tesla will actually have a million robotaxis driving around by end of 2020. A much bolder prediction that the prediction in the first quote.

As a result, this is the quote that some believe that Elon mispoke and accidentally said "a million robotaxis" where based on context, he meant to say "a million cars with FSD hardware", ie capable of being robotaxis but not actually operating as robotaxis since based on the first quote, he admits that robotaxis won't be allowed everywhere at first.

 

[Daniel in SD]

@humbaba @electronblue

Let me try to help since I am a diplomat.

From Autonomy Day, there are two different quotes from Elon that we are discussing:

Quote #1 "We expect to have the first operating robotaxis next year. With no one in them. Next year.”

”I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxi Teslas next year. Not all in jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere but I’m confident we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year"

That quote is accurate. And in this quote, Elon is simply saying that FSD will be reliable enough by end of 2020 that Tesla will be able to remove the driver in some areas. So by end of 2020, some areas will have robotaxis but not everywhere.

Quote #2: "By the middle of next year we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware feature complete at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention. Meaning you could to sleep in your... from our standpoint if you fast forward a year... maybe a year and three months but next year for sure we will have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

That quote is accurate but would seem to be saying something different from the quote above. Elon seems to be saying that Tesla will actually have a million robotaxis driving around by end of 2020. A much bolder prediction that the prediction in the first quote.

As a result, this is the quote that some believe that Elon mispoke and accidentally said "a million robotaxis" where based on context, he meant to say "a million cars with FSD hardware", ie capable of being robotaxis but not actually operating as robotaxis since based on the first quote, he admits that robotaxis won't be allowed everywhere at first.

This is all nitpicking. I would argue that being a robotaxi doesn't necessarily mean that a vehicle has to be currently operating as a robotaxi. The vehicle is a robotaxi even if the owner chooses not to use it as one.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Quote #1 "We expect to have the first operating robotaxis next year. With no one in them. Next year.”

”I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxi Teslas next year. Not all in jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere but I’m confident we’ll have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year"

That quote is accurate. And in this quote, Elon is simply saying that FSD will be reliable enough by end of 2020 that Tesla will be able to remove the driver in some areas. So by end of 2020, some areas will have robotaxis but not everywhere.

I can understand the confusion on the context of the second quote...but does everyone agree with the above? Or did he leave an "out" by saying the robotaxis would have "no one in them" - meaning, literally, no one in them, no passengers either...so they would be test robotaxis in some small jurisdiction...not sure what sort of "out" that would be though...

Anyway, even satisfying this projection would be fantastic; I would be blown away if they could get to level 4 in some jurisdiction, before the end of 2020, even with arbitrary hardware! And he's saying they'll do it with existing hardware, when considering the second quote.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I can understand the confusion on the context of the second quote...but does everyone agree with the above? Or did he leave an "out" by saying the robotaxis would have "no one in them" - meaning, literally, no one in them, no passengers either...so they would be test robotaxis in some small jurisdiction...not sure what sort of "out" that would be though...

Anyway, even satisfying this projection would be fantastic; I would be blown away if they could get to level 4 in some jurisdiction, before the end of 2020, even with arbitrary hardware! And he's saying they'll do it with existing hardware, when considering the second quote.

Fake news! I think it's pretty clear he's talking about regulatory approval to operate in a tunnel. I'm sure @humbaba and @SO16 would agree.

 

[electronblue]

That quote is accurate but would seem to be saying something different from the quote above. Elon seems to be saying that Tesla will actually have a million robotaxis driving around by end of 2020.

I agree and I said so above in #770.

I don’t think Elon meant a million driverless robotaxis by end of 2020 — I think in the latter quote he meant the cars would be capable from their point of view (”you could sleep... from our standpoint”), not that regulatory approval is available everywhere...

But he did expect some number of Tesla robotaxis somewhere by end of 2020 without drivers and with regulatory approval.

I still don’t understand the claim that someone (me?) claimed the quotes were not from Autonomous Investor Day. Of course they were. That is where Tesla laid out the bold roadmap for 2019 and 2020:

- Level 5 feature complete no geofence by end of 2019.
- Ready for sleeping by end of 2020 (not regulatory approved everywhere).
- Tesla robotaxis operational somewhere by end of 2020 (with regulatory approval).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Level 5 feature complete no geofence by end of 2019.

Can you help me with this one? I'm sure it's been covered somewhere, but if you could point me to the post with the evidence for this claim?

I understand that FSD feature-complete is promised by the end of this year, but based on the currently-sold FSD that's just a level 2 system. (Not talking about prior sold version descriptions of FSD here - those people have been abandoned, or promises will be broken, I'm fairly sure.)

So specifically, where does this level 5 bit come from? Sorry if I've already asked this or if it's already been answered (I am sure it has).