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Autonomous Car Progress
- Thread starter stopcrazypp
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- Autonomous Vehicles
As most everything recent, it comes from the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day — full video on YouTube.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, I guess I have seen that before. Every time I read that transcript I just discard that particular claim as bad data (does not compute), so I don't remember it. I'm sure I'll be asking this same question again in a couple weeks.
It's clearly not going to happen, and clearly that cannot be what Elon meant. I guess this is where things really went off the rails in that presentation. He just started babbling incoherently as far as I can tell.
I feel like he must have been talking about a different type of feature-complete self-driving than the feature-complete promised by the end of 2019. Or he forgot what feature-complete meant, or...something.
In any case, "Level 5 feature complete no geofence by end of 2019" is so wildly inconsistent with anything else promised in the timeline (which are already fantastical goals), that I just dismiss it as an unmitigated nonsense promise, which we can completely discount.
Sometimes you just have to give someone a pass on their promises, when they are completely inconsistent with their other promises. This is one of those times.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I disagree. Having level 5, no geofence, feature complete FSD by the end of this year would absolutely be necessary to achieve actual robotaxis by the end of next year. Note that he didn't say anything that would be inconsistent with it still being beta software this year.
It's all consistent and completely crazy.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
”Just so that we understand the definitions, when you refer to feature complete self-driving it sounds like you are talking Level 5 no geofence? Is that whats expected by the end of the year? Just so...
Musk: ”Yes.”
Yeah, I think the only way to understand this is in this context: Elon is clearly referring to feature-complete self-driving (a level 2 system) by the end of the year, which long term of course he hopes will be level 5 no geofence. So, when someone asks him whether he means the product will be level 5 no geofence, he says yes, meaning ultimately it will be level 5 no geofence.
There's really no other way to comprehend this.
It's obviously an incorrect answer (some might call it a lie, but let's be charitable), but it's the only way to make sense of his answer as far as I can tell.
Musk: ”Yes.”
Yeah, I think the only way to understand this is in this context: Elon is clearly referring to feature-complete self-driving (a level 2 system) by the end of the year, which long term of course he hopes will be level 5 no geofence. So, when someone asks him whether he means the product will be level 5 no geofence, he says yes, meaning ultimately it will be level 5 no geofence.
There's really no other way to comprehend this.
It's obviously an incorrect answer (some might call it a lie, but let's be charitable), but it's the only way to make sense of his answer as far as I can tell.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Might not be necessary for robotaxis that have no one in them (meaning no passengers), which operate only in some jurisdictions/domains (tunnels?), and only with regulatory approval. That's a lower bar.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
A beta level 5 system is indistinguishable from a level 2 system. I think describing feature complete FSD as beta SAE level 5 is accurate. Just like Waymo, Cruise, et al. are operating beta SAE Level 4 systems even though they still have a driver responsible for monitoring the operation of the vehicle.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Fair enough, though I think that is kind of silly to call it "beta Level 5." Anyway, so we can modify @electronblue's outline of the roadmap as follows:
Bold Tesla Roadmap:
- Level 5 feature-complete, no geofence, by end of 2019. (Beta, so actually Level 2)
- Ready for sleeping by end of 2020 (not regulatory approved everywhere).
- Tesla robotaxis operational somewhere by end of 2020 (with regulatory approval).
Agreed?
That would make more sense. All quite impossible of course, but I think that's relatively self-consistent.
According to SAE, a beta Level 5 with safety driver is still Level 5. Design-intent matters.
Of course.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I see. Well, I can see that subtlety being lost in the fervor of the Autonomy Day proselytizing.
Probably he just meant Level 2 then. Of course, they're not going to call it Level 5 beta. That would bring out the regulators, like ants at a picnic!
DanCar
Active Member
Elon time frame roadmap (in reality it will be many years late):
- Level 3ish feature-complete, no geofence, by end of 2019.
- Ready for sleeping by end of 2020, in divided freeway if your lucky for a few feet.
- Tesla robotaxis operational somewhere by end of 2020. Means Tesla spending money, but not actually taxiing anyone.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
@Daniel in SD why the disagree? I guess you think maybe they're going to do feature-complete FSD beta level 5 with safety drivers, but not released to the masses, by end of this year? I could see that too. (Also impossible of course.) Safer though.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think he meant that they would be testing a feature complete level 5 system by the end of the year. No reasonable person could watch the autonomy day presentation and get the impression that Tesla's design intent is anything other than making an autonomous vehicle.
When you buy the car it's saying "coming this year," that strongly implies that it will come to end users.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
But I would agree with that - I think that's probably what he meant - but that's why I said it would be level 2, because it would be clearly totally incapable of actual Level 5 operation by end of this year (notwithstanding the subtleties of design intent, which would mean it would actually be classified as a Level 5 beta system)! But I don't think that's what would be rolling out to people. Nor do I think any of this is going to happen by the end of this year.
In the end, I'm just trying to capture what Elon was claiming the level of capability was expected to be by the end of this year - forget about the definitions for a second. My view is that he was claiming that they'd be feature-complete with an FSD system which might be on a trajectory to be actually autonomous, but would definitely not be truly autonomous, by the end of this year. That's what he meant by "level 5 feature-complete no geofence" - I do understand it's difficult to reconcile and a bit subtle, but I think that's what he meant - he wants to have all the features in place to begin the march (by the end of 2019), towards a reliability level which results in true autonomy (which will happen after 2019 "sometime") . I agree that their ultimate intent is to be producing truly autonomous vehicles.
And to repeat, even with my parsing of Elon's claim, I don't think it will happen by the end of 2019.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
No one, including Elon, is claiming that it will be out of beta by the end of the year. The goal is to be testing/verifying/perfecting/whatever a "feature complete" SAE Level 5 system just like he said. Elon was claiming that it will be capable of Level 5 operation by the end of the year in exactly the same way that Waymo and Cruise claim that they are capable of Level 4 operation, with a safety driver.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Let me try to keep it simple:
1) "L5 feature complete no geofence" means all the primary features are coded for beta highway and city street self-driving with no geofencing. Tesla obviously has an internal list of features that they want to implement for FSD and Elon expects that the dev team will finish all those features at a beta level by end of 2019. "L5 feature complete no geofencing" will be beta, ie it will require driver supervision.
2) After feature complete, Elon expects that over the next year or so (end of 2020) that the dev team will be able to add any secondary features and improve the reliability such that FSD will no longer require driver supervision in certain areas. At that point, Elon expects that Tesla will be able to start deploying some cars as robotaxis in those areas.
1) "L5 feature complete no geofence" means all the primary features are coded for beta highway and city street self-driving with no geofencing. Tesla obviously has an internal list of features that they want to implement for FSD and Elon expects that the dev team will finish all those features at a beta level by end of 2019. "L5 feature complete no geofencing" will be beta, ie it will require driver supervision.
2) After feature complete, Elon expects that over the next year or so (end of 2020) that the dev team will be able to add any secondary features and improve the reliability such that FSD will no longer require driver supervision in certain areas. At that point, Elon expects that Tesla will be able to start deploying some cars as robotaxis in those areas.
Feature complete does not mean primary features are coded. It means all features are coded. They don’t have to be reliable though. Level 5 no geofence has a very long list of requirements...
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