Autonomous Car Progress

[Microterf]

It seems that a lot of you underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

The experience will be much closer to owning a car than it will be to taking mass transport or uber/Lift since you won't have to deal with people

 

[powertoold]

underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again.

Sure, but the service would need to be extremely reliable, safe, readily available (within 5 minutes), be able to haul cargo, etc.

It’s gonna be a while before a service gets this good.

 

[MP3Mike]

It seems that a lot of you underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

I think you overestimate it. For example my weekly shopping involves 5 stops. So A car would have to be reserved for me for ~6 hours to hold everything. Which would probably be expensive. I also carry emergency supplies with me that I'm not going to take into a store. So I would likely never give up owning a car.

 

[Terminator857]

..., it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

The experience will be much closer to owning a car than it will be to taking mass transport or uber/Lift since you won't have to deal with people

Agree, but there will be issues even after wrinkles are ironed out:
1. How much will it cost to transport a family?
2. What happens when you want to cross state boundaries or country boundaries?
3. What about peak usage and peak demand rates? You'll be waiting plenty and paying more.
4. Are you going to be grossed out by sitting in a bacteria / virus infested vehicle?
5. If there is an emergency and everyone wants to get out of dodge quickly, you won't be able to.

 

[powertoold]

So A car would have to be reserved for me for ~6 hours to hold everything. Which would probably be expensive.

It actually might not be once they are ubiquitous and electric.

 

[ThomasD]

I would love for a robotaxi to take my to the VA clinic on Fort Knox Army Base. It's a 40 minute car ride from my house. How many Robotaxis would be needed to transport 90% of the population of the greater L A area? How long until we see these vehicles transport people with large wheelchairs/mobility scooters? Will you have a choice of what type of robotaxi you will need? Will you be able to pick from a car to a minivan or truck? How long will it take for robotaxis to be able to drive on any road surface in any town or city in any county with or without cell service throughout the country?

 

[ThomasD]

How many cars would be needed to evacuate 5 million people from a Hurricane

 

[Soda Popinski]

How many cars would be needed to evacuate 5 million people from a Hurricane

I suppose in a case like that, you could have excess cars from outside of the area drive into the evacuation zone to alleviate the shortage. Imagine a swarm of a million robotaxies driving in.


That said, what will it be like if you want to go camping and don't want to unload the car completely, because say you're doing several camp sites.

 

[Microterf]

I'm not saying people won't WANT cars, and in certain situations it may be worth it for some people to own one, but for most people they won't be able to justify the cost.

I'm fairly certain there will be a monthly charge like everything else and then extra fees foe certain things above and beyond. (Road trips, larger vehicles, etc.)

With new cars averaging $41k, it would be much more cost effective to spend $200 a month on a subscription and then pay another $x periodically when you will be traveling more or need a van, truck, etc.

 

[Microterf]

I'm pretty sure you can already add multiple stops with Waymo in Arizona. I don't see why that would be an issue with any robo taxi network. As long as you were still within your monthly allowed usage time, or willing to lay whatever extra fees they had if you went over.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm pretty sure you can already add multiple stops with Waymo in Arizona.

You can, but you aren't allowed to leave anything in the vehicle because you may not get the same vehicle for the next leg of your trip.

 

[daniel]

It seems that a lot of you underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

The experience will be much closer to owning a car than it will be to taking mass transport or uber/Lift since you won't have to deal with people

The above ignores market and economic factors: Demand varies by time of day, and whether it's actively in service or just sitting waiting until it's needed, it costs money to buy and have a car ready. There will never be enough robotaxis available for peak demand because they would be idle and producing no revenue for most of the day. To have enough robotaxis for peak demand times would cost too much. So at those times rates will increase, and more importantly, wait times will increase.

People who can afford a private car will want the convenience of not having to wait, of being able to leave stuff in the car (stuff they'll need on the next stop but not on this one), of being able to park in areas without cell service so the car is there when they need it, of knowing that the car's previous passenger wasn't sick with a communicable disease, of knowing the car is not going to stink of a previous rider's vomit or tobacco smoke (heavy smokers shed stink from their clothing even if they don't smoke while in the car), etc., etc., etc.

There is very real and marketable demand for taxis and ride-shares; and robotaxis will compete with those, and if the cost of a robotaxi becomes competitive they may push taxis and ride-shares out of business. But they will never eliminate the demand for private cars.

 

[DanCar]

The above ignores market and economic factors: Demand varies by time of day, and whether it's actively in service or just sitting waiting until it's needed, it costs money to buy and have a car ready. There will never be enough robotaxis available for peak demand because they would be idle and producing no revenue for most of the day. To have enough robotaxis for peak demand times would cost too much. So at those times rates will increase, and more importantly, wait times will increase.

True, but the problem can be somewhat mitigated by multiple seats. For example using vans. During peak 6 passengers in the car. Non peak: one passenger.

 

[powertoold]

To have enough robotaxis for peak demand times would cost too much.

It would cost more than individual cars?

 

[EVNow]

It seems that a lot of you underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

The experience will be much closer to owning a car than it will be to taking mass transport or uber/Lift since you won't have to deal with people

Do you have small kids ?

It will take a loong, very looong time before robotaxis can replace personal car for younger families with small kids (all over US). You need a high density of robotaxis equipped with the right acr seats etc.

And ofcourse, forget about dropping off your little one to the pre-school and coming back home in 5 minutes.

 

[Microterf]

Do you have small kids ?

It will take a loong, very looong time before robotaxis can replace personal car for younger families with small kids (all over US). You need a high density of robotaxis equipped with the right acr seats etc.

And ofcourse, forget about dropping off your little one to the pre-school and coming back home in 5 minutes.

My kids are 17 and 19, so that is no longer a concern for me, but I don't see how you couldn't have minivans that already have 1, 2, or 3 car seats in them ready to go. In the app you could choose the vehicle of your needs. During peak times of course your wait might be a little longer, but not unreasonable.

 

[Microterf]

I remember reading about what is now Waymo for the first time in 2010, and my first thought was that my generation (I'm 39) will be testifying in congress one day as to why it would be a horrible idea to ban human drivers on public roads, talking about how its our right to drive, and it violates our freedoms etc. I still think that day will come, maybe not in my lifetime, but it will come.

I could be 100% wrong, but car ownership will not be necessary for 95% of people, and a lot of people won't be able to afford it if they wanted to once the costs skyrocket.

 

[mark95476]

It's not just robotaxis replacing individual commuter cars. It's making the roads safe for bicycles, electric bikes, scooters, and other means of transportation that aren't all cars. I'd cycle to work and back (~15 miles each way) were safer.

It seems that a lot of you underestimate the disruption of robotaxis. Personally I believe once L4/5 robotaxis are available, it won't make financial sense for almost anybody that has access to use them to buy a vehicle ever again. Unlike Uber/Lift, the vehicle will always be in use except for charging and maintenance.

The experience will be much closer to owning a car than it will be to taking mass transport or uber/Lift since you won't have to deal with people

Sure, but the service would need to be extremely reliable, safe, readily available (within 5 minutes), be able to haul cargo, etc.

It’s gonna be a while before a service gets this good.

 

[powertoold]

Yup, if robotaxis were ubiquitous, many of the issues caused by variable and unpredictable human behavior would be reduced or solved (traffic, drunk drivers, inattention, accidents, etc.) And many of the issues we anticipate about robotaxis would be resolved because it's difficult for us to imagine a world with robotaxis.

With robotaxis, we'll basically have smart and connected car network that would allow us to manage peak hours, different population needs, and essentially make everything way more efficient.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I remember reading about what is now Waymo for the first time in 2010, and my first thought was that my generation (I'm 39) will be testifying in congress one day as to why it would be a horrible idea to ban human drivers on public roads, talking about how its our right to drive, and it violates our freedoms etc. I still think that day will come, maybe not in my lifetime, but it will come.

I could be 100% wrong, but car ownership will not be necessary for 95% of people, and a lot of people won't be able to afford it if they wanted to once the costs skyrocket.

I don't see car ownership being banned.
They might make getting a license tougher, and they could have a zero tolerance and aggressive enforcement approach to DUI.

AVs should, if anything, make things _easier_ for human drivers. If they are observant they would reduce insurance costs for humans as well by helping them avoid collisions.

Besides, why wouldn't L2 systems continue to improve and make driving safer and easier for humans?