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I doubt this means anything, but when I originally configured (6-27-18), I was given a Sep-Nov estimate. I then changed my configuration on 8-1-18 and then was given the automatic 2-4 months from the date of order change that others were seeing, so Oct-Dec. As of today, it is now back to showing Sep-Nov. I am sure it doesn't mean any imminent VIN, and am assuming it just means they fixed the "bug" of it just tacking on 2-4 months from the last change (when I believe the consensus is they really go by original order date), but I can at least try to fool myself into thinking it means something!
 
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I doubt this means anything, but when I originally configured (6-27-18), I was given a Sep-Nov estimate. I then changed my configuration on 8-1-18 and then was given the automatic 2-4 months from the date of order change that others were seeing, so Oct-Dec. As of today, it is now back to showing Sep-Nov. I am sure it doesn't mean any imminent VIN, and am assuming it just means they fixed the "bug" of it just tacking on 2-4 months from the last change (when I believe the consensus is they really go by original order date), but I can at least try to fool myself into thinking it means something!

Same boat exactly.
 
UPDATE:

Red / PUP - Black / EAP / 19's / AWD
Day 1 online reservation, configured 6/27, Edit gone and emailed 8/13, Delivered 8/23

Picked the car up at 4pm in Bellevue, WA. They did 4 deliveries at once, telling everyone VERY basics about the car, and then said "These cars are more about learning how to you use them as you drive them." I've already done loads of research as most of us on the forums have, so I was fine with that, but not sure about the others.

Used the Reddit Checklist from Teslike, and found a very tiny scratch in one rear tail light cover, and a very minor blemish on the front bumper. The rest of the car was utterly perfect. The panel gaps were amazing, glass was aligned without goop everywhere, no other issues period. I was the first to leave, just put it in D and pulled out. Very effortless overall, and I had never driven in or ridden in a Model 3 before rolling out of the Service Center, though I have driven a P100D.

I am truly in love, there is zero body roll taking 20mph cloverleaf ramps at 45. Torque for days (coming from a pretty highly modified 2010 Audi S4 supercharged, so no turbo lag, and 450hp). I am like so many others, not even close to regretting this decision. Not sad at all about saving the 5 figures by going AWD over P.

Chin up everyone - it is TOTALLY worth the wait.
 
would my order be delayed or pushed forward if I change to performance?

seriously considering dropping fsd and sport rims and paying the 5.5k to go performance. while I'm sure 4.5 seconds is great, 5k seemd like a bargin compared to the 35k or whatever got the p100d over the 100d?

i mean if i drop autopilot too, they are basically the same price. Can always add autopilot later?
 

AWESOME graph. That shows that of the 109 tracked VINs that have been designated, 90 of them (or 82%) have been assigned for the first two dates only. A similar number is with delivery dates assigned. If you extend that to first week deliveries, we end up with nearly 90% assigned.

This doesn't show if people inputted the wrong dates either - there are five assignments since vehicles opened to everyone, and I know from at least one other place that this has happened when someone puts in their configuration date as their reservation date.

I agree that I expect to see this look something like a wave going left to right. The first two days are currently sitting at about 50% filled right now. Not bad!
 
AWESOME graph. That shows that of the 109 tracked VINs that have been designated, 90 of them (or 82%) have been assigned for the first two dates only. A similar number is with delivery dates assigned. If you extend that to first week deliveries, we end up with nearly 90% assigned.

This doesn't show if people inputted the wrong dates either - there are five assignments since vehicles opened to everyone, and I know from at least one other place that this has happened when someone puts in their configuration date as their reservation date.

I agree that I expect to see this look something like a wave going left to right. The first two days are currently sitting at about 50% filled right now. Not bad!
I doubt that 3/31 & 4/1 reservation conversions are mfg/delivered at this point but I can dream that my car is coming soon...
 
I doubt that 3/31 & 4/1 reservation conversions are mfg/delivered at this point but I can dream that my car is coming soon...

I'm not sure why you would doubt it - the data shows it and we have been seeing more and more deliveries with that timeframe lately. It isn't 100% yet, but it's definitely moving pretty quickly.

Additionally, it's pretty easy to not update your VIN and delivery date on the spreadsheet, especially if you put in your information a few months ago and then forgot about it. I think it's reasonable to think we're more than halfway through the first two days of reservation holders right now.
 
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I doubt this means anything, but when I originally configured (6-27-18), I was given a Sep-Nov estimate. I then changed my configuration on 8-1-18 and then was given the automatic 2-4 months from the date of order change that others were seeing, so Oct-Dec. As of today, it is now back to showing Sep-Nov. I am sure it doesn't mean any imminent VIN, and am assuming it just means they fixed the "bug" of it just tacking on 2-4 months from the last change (when I believe the consensus is they really go by original order date), but I can at least try to fool myself into thinking it means something!

Wow, me too! I'm back to Sept/Nov! I made a change on 8/10. I jumped to Oct-Dec. After reading your post I checked my account and it now says Sept/Nov again. Nothing else changed.
 
AWESOME graph. That shows that of the 109 tracked VINs that have been designated, 90 of them (or 82%) have been assigned for the first two dates only. A similar number is with delivery dates assigned. If you extend that to first week deliveries, we end up with nearly 90% assigned.

This doesn't show if people inputted the wrong dates either - there are five assignments since vehicles opened to everyone, and I know from at least one other place that this has happened when someone puts in their configuration date as their reservation date.

I agree that I expect to see this look something like a wave going left to right. The first two days are currently sitting at about 50% filled right now. Not bad!

it's rather small sample size, but I'll take it. As we've read in other threads on TMC, location absolutely matters as well. Especially for a company pressed to deliver as many cars as possible now and get the revenue recognition they need to show the street.
 
I think everyone is forgetting about previous owners in all the expected orders. If I remember correctly, previous owner is the end all trump (lower case t) card. There is no way to know all the previous S and X owners that decided they wanted this car and just jumped in line. Most likely they are affluent and could afford to just buy another car, maybe even in cash. Just the thing tesla is looking for. Either way there is 18 weeks left in the year. Enough time to fulfill 90,000 more cars. That should be time to get the vast majority of us our cars.
 
I think everyone is forgetting about previous owners in all the expected orders. If I remember correctly, previous owner is the end all trump (lower case t) card. There is no way to know all the previous S and X owners that decided they wanted this car and just jumped in line. Most likely they are affluent and could afford to just buy another car, maybe even in cash. Just the thing tesla is looking for. Either way there is 18 weeks left in the year. Enough time to fulfill 90,000 more cars. That should be time to get the vast majority of us our cars.

Took delivery yesterday and am not a previous owner. For a while they had previous owners jumping to the front, but that stopped after they opened configuration to everyone, I believe. There are a lot of moving parts to what makes some orders happen before others, but much of it is speculation. We do know they produce in batches, in order to prevent changes to the line all the time which slows it down. I also know that (for example) the cars are shipped for the Seattle area to a holding yard in Tacoma. There are only 2 SC's in the Seattle area, Bellevue, and Seattle - and they have had logistics issues with getting enough cars to the SC's daily in order to meet customer appointments. The reschedule rate as been about 30-40% lately where you get a call a day or even hours in advance where they car "didn't make it onto the truck." As for Bellevue, they do not have a ton of room, and are doing group deliveries, where 4-6 people pickup at once, and if you know what you are doing, they let you leave immediately, if you need hand holding they will do that as well.

Factors can be:
- When you reserved
- When you configured
- What your configuration is versus what they recently produced that matches
- How slammed a specific region/stockpile yard/Service Center is
 
Hey guys I have a question and was wondering if this has happened to anyone.
I’m not supposed to get my car until later in September however the payment page just opened up today and I was told by my ISA that only opened up 72 hours prior to delivery. Does that mean there’s a chance my car is at the delivery center? My ISA has no been responsive at all so I really have no clue whether the car could be there or not. Has this happened to anyone else?
 
Hey guys I have a question and was wondering if this has happened to anyone.
I’m not supposed to get my car until later in September however the payment page just opened up today and I was told by my ISA that only opened up 72 hours prior to delivery. Does that mean there’s a chance my car is at the delivery center? My ISA has no been responsive at all so I really have no clue whether the car could be there or not. Has this happened to anyone else?
Check your "i" icon for delivery steps, they changed something yesterday, and updated a LOT of people's dates. Some are showing a very specific date like "By October 18", while others who used to show "Sept - Nov" now say "End of Oct." If it's close, it should show on your page now. My entire process happened crazy fast, car was made in Aug, I got email on 8/13 and took delivery yesterday on 8/23. My "Make final payment" page opened about 3 days before delivery, but then as I said, my entire process went fast.
 
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Hey guys I have a question and was wondering if this has happened to anyone.
I’m not supposed to get my car until later in September however the payment page just opened up today and I was told by my ISA that only opened up 72 hours prior to delivery. Does that mean there’s a chance my car is at the delivery center? My ISA has no been responsive at all so I really have no clue whether the car could be there or not. Has this happened to anyone else?

Same thing happened to me. My delivery is scheduled for 2 weeks from now, but when I signed into my Tesla account this morning it says (in big bold letters) to pay off remaining balance prior to delivery. I can click the make a payment link and it lets me pay online via my bank account. I don't want to pay too soon, and I was actually planning on bringing a cashiers check at delivery. But if I can move things along quicker by paying online...

I wonder if the car will show up sooner??
 
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A great thing to wake up to: asking for loan information! I updated my order to white seats just a few days ago

Model 3 Red, AWD, PUP, White Interior, Aero, EAP, FSD
Reserved: 2017-10-10 /// Ordered: 2018-06-27 6:55pm EST /// Edited to White Seats: 2018-08-21 /// Asked for loan and trade in details: 2018-08-24

You are like the 10th person this week that has had that happen. I stick by my assessment that they over produced regular AWD + White Seats and have some sitting around ready for a taker. I think that is why they sent the reminder email about the white seats.

They probably looked at the P model and saw a 75% take in White Seats and assumed the regular AWD model would have the same.

But that is not the case because some of us regular AWD folks are a little more frugal. I don't want to pay extra for white. I would get white if it was the same price or ~500 difference.

I do wish I knew if I changed my order to white seats, would my car suddenly become available? What if I did that and then I just delayed it further ? I wish they let us know this stuff.

Does anyone know if you make a change now, do we have to pay more for paint and things or are we grandfathered at the lower cost?
 
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