LNL_HUTZ
Member
From what I've read, it's not so much that they made a bigger battery. It's that they made a bigger battery that doesn't generate excessive heat, which was previously the reason batteries couldn't be bigger.
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Battery Day...
- Thread starter jayely1
- Start date
Buy on the dip.
This means faster charging longer. It Could mean 210 miles in 10m or less.
the market did not understand what they saw. I did. And it showed me that Tesla Has really got their act together for future dominance of the market and ability to produce cars without being supply constrained.
Fudsters are eating it’s all 2-3 years away. It’s not. The peak Savings is 2-3 years away. The cars will start rolling out with this technology next year just in lower volumes.
I’d really like to know if they are going to put these cells in the S or the X. I don’t see it happening. Going from 65mm tall cells to 80mm tall cells means finding 15mm of space to fit it in the pack.
It would really give people a reason to buy the S or X.
LNL_HUTZ
Member
I'm not sure that these statements are compatible. It seems to make a lot of sense that the new battery architecture will require changes to the cars themselves, in which case it's doubtful that Tesla would start making some MS models (or MXs, or M3s, or MYs) with one type of battery and some with the other. The message from Elon is that the new batteries will be incorporated into models that don't exist yet--Roadster, Semi, CT. I can see maybe the Plaid MS getting it, especially since they won't be building them for another year at least.
Puma2020
Member
Very impressed with the information presented. Elon and team are not focused on the near term but rather the long term. The new battery is BIG. (pun intended) Not just in size and energy stored but what it means for the future. While other manufacturers are trying to cram 100+kWh batteries into their cars, Tesla will have those new batteries in their newly designed cars, trucks (both Semi and Cyber), providing more range and faster charging. However, the really big deal and what most people forget, is that this is not just about cars. Tesla will be selling these new Powerwalls, Powerpacks, Megapacks to all of the utilities around the globe to store more energy at a cheaper price than competitors. They are talking about Tera-Watts not Giga-Watts. Who else is thinking that size? Read yesterday that U.K. is buying 1.2GW wind turbines for their 190 piece wind farm in the north sea. How are they going to store all that energy?
Think of Hornsdale, Australia and how small that will be in 10 years.
Think of how people in 10 years building a new house will afford solar and a Powerwall (using these new batteries).
Elon has always wanted to have an energy revolution and he is working towards making it happen.
As far as the stock price, most people are narrowly focused. Short-term and Tesla just makes EVs.
You have to decide for yourself, how true that is.
Think of Hornsdale, Australia and how small that will be in 10 years.
Think of how people in 10 years building a new house will afford solar and a Powerwall (using these new batteries).
Elon has always wanted to have an energy revolution and he is working towards making it happen.
As far as the stock price, most people are narrowly focused. Short-term and Tesla just makes EVs.
You have to decide for yourself, how true that is.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
The model S will be 10 years old by the time the Plaid version is released. I bet there is a new version of the Model S at the same time.
Same old, same old--Tesla is continuing to invest in basic sciences, expanding, getting even more vertical, and accelerating their R&D and production.
People continue to criticize Elon and Tesla about missing deadlines so I think they're particularly sensitive about it. I think thats partly why Model Y came out 6+ months ahead of schedule. Yet, Tesla put a lot more stakes in the ground and left more things for people to criticize them for.
Some short-term and other longer term items:
- They got a bunch of those super expensive rear one-piece casting machines going and they're going to cast the front as well.
- Model S Plaid deliveries in about a year. Price-to-performance is ridiculous for $140k and ICE super cars costing multiples of that aren't competitive.
- CyberTruck flex.... So many pre-orders that they stopped counting. The Austin factory where it'll be built is massive and going up very quickly.
- When they talk about their new 4680 battery, they already have their own pilot factory up and running. Maxwell technology is being integrated.
- Batteries are going to be everywhere and they plan to have the best. Using their 4680 battery will mean over-all weight reduction.
- The 3 year time-line on the $25k car funny. They have a huge new plant in Shanghai around a massive customer base with enormous demand. People will want this new Tesla Model (TBD) tomorrow. They've put their low-cost industry competitors in a tough spot because now they essentially have competition.
That slide where Tesla grew last year vs all other major OEMs shrinking is telling. How long was it when trolls were crowing about Tesla's imminent bankruptcy? It must be hard for ICE OEMs to try planning and investing for the future when downsizing and trying to survive quarter to quarter.
I think Tesla has told the entire industry that they're being left further behind. The market dynamic where major OEMs shrink while Tesla grows is now given.
I wonder what would happen if Tesla stopped Battery Day, out of cycle announcements, and outlining things they're doing years in advance. Elon has said he doesn't intend to kill his ICE OEM competitors so I suppose that's why they continue.
People continue to criticize Elon and Tesla about missing deadlines so I think they're particularly sensitive about it. I think thats partly why Model Y came out 6+ months ahead of schedule. Yet, Tesla put a lot more stakes in the ground and left more things for people to criticize them for.
Some short-term and other longer term items:
- They got a bunch of those super expensive rear one-piece casting machines going and they're going to cast the front as well.
- Model S Plaid deliveries in about a year. Price-to-performance is ridiculous for $140k and ICE super cars costing multiples of that aren't competitive.
- CyberTruck flex.... So many pre-orders that they stopped counting. The Austin factory where it'll be built is massive and going up very quickly.
- When they talk about their new 4680 battery, they already have their own pilot factory up and running. Maxwell technology is being integrated.
- Batteries are going to be everywhere and they plan to have the best. Using their 4680 battery will mean over-all weight reduction.
- The 3 year time-line on the $25k car funny.
They have a huge new plant in Shanghai around a massive customer base with enormous demand. People will want this new Tesla Model (TBD) tomorrow. They've put their low-cost industry competitors in a tough spot because now they essentially have competition. That slide where Tesla grew last year vs all other major OEMs shrinking is telling. How long was it when trolls were crowing about Tesla's imminent bankruptcy? It must be hard for ICE OEMs to try planning and investing for the future when downsizing and trying to survive quarter to quarter.
I think Tesla has told the entire industry that they're being left further behind. The market dynamic where major OEMs shrink while Tesla grows is now given.
I wonder what would happen if Tesla stopped Battery Day, out of cycle announcements, and outlining things they're doing years in advance. Elon has said he doesn't intend to kill his ICE OEM competitors so I suppose that's why they continue.
Will Tesla be able to keep up with the servicing and maintenance of all of this. Their service centers are over crowded. Long waits for service according to a lot of owners. Issues with customer support. Can't get anyone on the phone. Even though they will come up with new and better battery packs for the cars that are not built yet they will still have to make parts for the older cars. Unless they allow a third party to make and repair battery packs in older cars
A valid concern. They have to improve profitability to be able to equally grow the service centers and support. They are holding back right now for the short term. They have to ship cars to survive. Soon they will have to repair them to keep customers happy enough for replacements (and the used markets).
One could say this is what allowed the Japanese to eat the US automaker's lunches in the early 80s. Better car quality got them customers for life. Many will NEVER go back no matter how good GM or Ford makes their cars.
Tesla has hype and performance driving their sales. When they ship a $25K car, it won't be a performance version. It will be scaled back like an iPod nano was to the iPod classic or an iPhone SE for $399 vs. the iPhone 11 Max Pro for $1199.
The average person won't love their car as much if it's just a little more fun than their old Civic. If Tesla delivers way more fun for the same price, then it will have to be the competition Tesla has to worry about (if there is any in 3-5 years).
HenryFarkas
Google "Henry Farkas Tesla"
Here's a thought. If the batteries become integral to the structure of the car, then replacing worn-out batteries will essentially mean the replacement of the whole car. That just happened with my phone. But maybe, if the batteries last a million miles, the car will need to be replaced by the time the batteries need to be replaced.
everydaychris
Active Member
I see a few people saying that we should lease instead of buy a MY in the meantime until 2-3 years from now where they will improve the MY. Thoughts??
i’m sure the battery will still be replaceable, it will just bolt to the front and rear structures.
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
I'm in the "lease" group. Never leased a vehicle in my life (75 yrs of age). But the vehicles are simply changing too rapidly for me to know if my 2020 MY won't be overshadowed by the model coming out in 2023. Yes, a lease is more expensive then buying. None the less, for a high-end Tesla (well, the MY sure isn't cheap!) I want to make sure I have a vehicle that I will want to own three years from now. My hope is for a 400 mile range option to be available by then.
Rich
Leasing vs. buying is usually a financial argument with many conditions.
If you want the latest tech with the lowest hassle, leasing always wins.
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