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Woof. Ran my M3P as low as it ever has gone yesterday, making it home with 3% (and adjusting my speed from 70 to 65 to make sure I got there). This was only a 162-mile round trip but it was cold (10° to 20°), so I used the new navigation software in the app to plan it out. It showed I had about 27% to spare!

Yeah… not so much. Started with 97% charge and barely made it back. Had this been off by a bit more I would have been stranded in the middle of nowhere, in freezing temps, in the middle of the night.

I assume this is because the cold. Also had a headwind in the way home that cost about 4%, but overall just super bummed in both the crappy range and that the planning estimate was so far off.

Posting (1) as a PSA but also (2) did I screw something up here? What could I have done to avoid this in the future??
 

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Glad you made it home safely. Wife and I have been traveling twice a year from Cape Cod~Tucson~Cape Cod in our (now) 2023 MY LR AWD. We prefer to see 20% as the projected range remaining between Superchargers. Yeah, I know the popular tactic is to go as low as possible. Swell. None the less, with 20% at a SC that would at minimum give us options if something went wrong (which, to date, after at least four years of such travel, nothing has "gone wrong" at a SC site!).

Rich
 
Woof. Ran my M3P as low as it ever has gone yesterday, making it home with 3% (and adjusting my speed from 70 to 65 to make sure I got there). This was only a 162-mile round trip but it was cold (10° to 20°), so I used the new navigation software in the app to plan it out. It showed I had about 27% to spare!

Yeah… not so much. Started with 97% charge and barely made it back. Had this been off by a bit more I would have been stranded in the middle of nowhere, in freezing temps, in the middle of the night.

I assume this is because the cold. Also had a headwind in the way home that cost about 4%, but overall just super bummed in both the crappy range and that the planning estimate was so far off.

Posting (1) as a PSA but also (2) did I screw something up here? What could I have done to avoid this in the future??
Never used the phone app to plan, but what did the car's trip planner say while you were actually driving? And, did you look when you reached Lewiston, NE,that you didn't get there with the 59% that the app predicted?

Generally, I check the car's trip planner within 10miles of leaving just to make sure I'm near the estimated prediction.
 
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Never used the phone app to plan, but what did the car's trip planner say while you were actually driving? And, did you look when you reached Lewiston, NE,that you didn't get there with the 59% that the app predicted?

Generally, I check the car's trip planner within 10miles of leaving just to make sure I'm near the estimated prediction.

When I started getting close the car popped up with a round trip estimate (which is a great feature) that I think said I would arrive back home at 16%. All told, I probably lost about 10% both ways compared to what the app predicted.

Honestly, though I lean toward range anxiety, I don't recall checking in Lewiston - I trusted the app's pre-trip estimate (which, I now know, failed to take into account the cold). (1) I probably should have realized that but (2) this was a big wakeup call that in real cold (<20 or so) my max range is probably 170ish miles.

My high schooler plays basketball games at little towns in the middle of nowhere, with no superchargers in sight, and all during the winter... I will definitely pay more attention to the car's estimate in the future.

 
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Honestly, though I lean toward range anxiety, I don't recall checking in Lewiston - I trusted the app's pre-trip estimate (which, I now know, failed to take into account the cold). (1) I probably should have realized that but (2) this was a big wakeup call that in real cold (<20 or so) my max range is probably 170ish miles.
Ah, yeah, I think I can give some input on this, which probably is the main thing that impacted you. Let's say you swung through the parking lot at your destination and immediately drove back home. That round trip energy consumption estimate would have probably been very close, because the battery would have stayed warm, conditions would have been the same the whole time, etc.

But that's of course not realistic, and you need to park and stay there a while, and the battery sits and gets cold again for several hours. Well, the car is like you and I when we get up in the morning, we need some extra "juice" and coffee to get us going. LOL Basically, after being parked and getting cold, the beginning of the drive home is consuming energy faster because there is extra usage to warm up the cabin and the battery. So it's going to be worse than the estimate it made when you were driving there.

Also, I don't know if someone has mentioned it yet, but I think the newer cars still have a setting called "Range Mode", which is meant for this very situation. It tones down the heating used for the battery and cabin heating, so it will preserve more of the energy for the driving distance.
 
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Ah, yeah, I think I can give some input on this, which probably is the main thing that impacted you. Let's say you swung through the parking lot at your destination and immediately drove back home. That round trip energy consumption estimate would have probably been very close, because the battery would have stayed warm, conditions would have been the same the whole time, etc.

But that's of course not realistic, and you need to park and stay there a while, and the battery sits and gets cold again for several hours. Well, the car is like you and I when we get up in the morning, we need some extra "juice" and coffee to get us going. LOL Basically, after being parked and getting cold, the beginning of the drive home is consuming energy faster because there is extra usage to warm up the cabin and the battery. So it's going to be worse than the estimate it made when you were driving there.

Also, I don't know if someone has mentioned it yet, but I think the newer cars still have a setting called "Range Mode", which is meant for this very situation. It tones down the heating used for the battery and cabin heating, so it will preserve more of the energy for the driving distance.
Really insightful... in hindsight, I think you are right. Seeing if I can hunt down "range mode" right now - the manual says "if equipped" but I will see if it's there next time I drive!

EDIT: looks like "range mode" is a Model S thing...
 
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When I started getting close the car popped up with a round trip estimate (which is a great feature) that I think said I would arrive back home at 16%. All told, I probably lost about 10% both ways compared to what the app predicted.

Honestly, though I lean toward range anxiety, I don't recall checking in Lewiston - I trusted the app's pre-trip estimate (which, I now know, failed to take into account the cold). (1) I probably should have realized that but (2) this was a big wakeup call that in real cold (<20 or so) my max range is probably 170ish miles.

My high schooler plays basketball games at little towns in the middle of nowhere, with no superchargers in sight, and all during the winter... I will definitely pay more attention to the car's estimate in the future.

I always have the trip prediction screen up when driving when I'm not sure about the range, because the trip plan estimate is based upon you driving under a specific set of circumstances, ie driving no more than 5mph over the limit, and using a modest amount of HVAC. I usually set mine manually at 69°f, fan on 2.
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The trip prediction screen is also dynamic, letting you know how you're doing relative to the prediction so you can tell quickly whether you're driving too fast, relative to what the prediction expected, or whether you are using more HVAC relative to what it assumed. Or whether there's more cold or more wind than "predicted". It's just better to see the dynamic change, obviously.

And for any new routing, I rely upon ABRP, to give me a realistic prediction, as it uses real-world data, and can pull up all the data from your car, including degradation, and it calibrates its prediction based upon your car's efficiency, etc. Yes, it factors temp, and elevation, etc., but you only get wind factoring if you pay for a sub. Still, it's far more accurate than the car's planner.
 
Woof. Ran my M3P as low as it ever has gone yesterday, making it home with 3% (and adjusting my speed from 70 to 65 to make sure I got there). This was only a 162-mile round trip but it was cold (10° to 20°), so I used the new navigation software in the app to plan it out. It showed I had about 27% to spare!

Yeah… not so much. Started with 97% charge and barely made it back. Had this been off by a bit more I would have been stranded in the middle of nowhere, in freezing temps, in the middle of the night.

I assume this is because the cold. Also had a headwind in the way home that cost about 4%, but overall just super bummed in both the crappy range and that the planning estimate was so far off.

Posting (1) as a PSA but also (2) did I screw something up here? What could I have done to avoid this in the future??

What tires & wheels were you using? M3P stock are summer tires and big inefficient wheels.

It certainly lost a significant amount of charge sitting in the cold.
 
Michigan Pilot Sport All Seasons, stock wheels... those summer performance tires don't have a chance here in Nebraska but maybe a couple months out of the year.
Good tires, but not at all efficiency tuned, and particularly with 20" wheels.

If I lived in a cold place with few chargers, I'd think about switching to 18" aeros and high efficiency tires like the Hankook iON AS. In other threads people report even better efficiency sometimes than the efficiency tuned (but otherwise mediocre) Michelin MXM4.
 
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