If you look at the increase of the range increase for the last 12 months, we can see that it happened quite progressively from about 13134 miles antil the latest point. This is not a increased ePA range, it could depend on new firmware that count the capacity different but as it is happening during so long time, I would guess it is the BMS that was off and adjusted slowly upwards. You do not drive very much each year so I guess a BMS can take some time to adjust back from a ”off” position.
The season hasnt changed the range for me, and driving habits should not affect almost nothing. Very much nhard driving could in theory cause more degradation and dure to this affect the calculated range. The displayed range itself is not affected by drivning and consumption Etc.
Batteries can recover capacity. For the easy understanding we most often need to know, the simple way is to think that lost capacity is forever lost.
In real life battery capacity can be recovered to some extent. For examply if the battery was used at high SOC for a long time(charging 70-80-90-100%) and then your charging behaviour changed so you started using low SOC, the battery could recover some capacity.
The extent ove recovery is very unsure, the research noticing this are not really clear with how much. I have seen about 0.5-1.5kWh (out of 82kWh) recovery on the nominal full pack after a series of higher charging levels with supercharging and long trips, this happens progressively after a number of low SOC cycles like 55-30% or so.
It looks more like a BMS off track situatiion though.
I had a similar range dip as your lowest point but it happened way faster and was about 3kWh (almost 20km) to low. I actually made a 100-0% drive and measured the capacity to be about 3kWh higher than the lowest dip, at the same time as it hade the displaed range dip. It eventully recovered and showed the same capacity / range as my measurement.
