Bet ValueAnalyst at your own risk

[elasalle]

One more bet, your SA articles will have TSLA positive headlines and first paragraphs, summary going forward. No disclaimers only in the end saying I am Long Tesla

I ain't a subscriber and just see some SA posts when I google Tesla. So I don't read/ cannot read the whole thing.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

One more bet, your SA articles will have TSLA positive headlines and first paragraphs, summary going forward. No disclaimers only in the end saying I am Long Tesla

I ain't a subscriber and just see some SA posts when I google Tesla. So I don't read/ cannot read the whole thing.

You're probably correct so no bet Also, you don't need a subscription to read my free articles. It's free to sign up for an account.

 

[neroden]

Darn, you're not taking more bets on the dividend question? I'm absolutely dead sure Tesla won't issue cash dividends for the forseeable future. (Spinoffs are a possiblity. Stock buybacks are possible if Musk decides he wants an increased control percentage, especially with the constant bleed of stock into the employee stock option program.)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

XOM $400B to Zero

@jhm @neroden oil demand will peak by 2025.

@ValueAnalyst pass on the giggle stick because you two are clearly smoking something good.

 

[RubberToe]

@ValueAnalyst said: "Keep in mind that billions of people will join the middle-class in the coming years. One of the things they'll buy for the first time is cars."

I'm betting that world wide private vehicle ownership by individuals will not be 2 billion greater than today in 2025.

RT

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@ValueAnalyst said: "Keep in mind that billions of people will join the middle class in the coming years. One of the things they'll buy for the first time is cars."

I'm betting that world wide private vehicle ownership by individuals will not be 2 billion greater than today in 2025.

RT

I said billions of people will join the middle class in the coming years. You added that they would all buy cars and you added the 2025. My point is: a lot more ICE cars will be added to global fleet than all-electric in the next seven years, so oil demand will continue to rise. Note the tremendous demand growth from India/China for industrial and air travel as well.

Although I appreciate the specificity of your offer... no bet.

 

[GoTslaGo]

In defense of the idea of issuing dividends (not that I think Tesla will anytime soon). It would make shorting TSLA more expensive, since the Shorts will have to pay the dividend (correct me if I'm wrong please).

The recent move to the (non-convertible) bond market does prevent dilution, which we all know is a first. So could it be that Tesla is thinking ahead to how to protect its shareholders?

Just a thought.

(And no, I'm not betting anything...)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In defense of the idea of issuing dividends (not that I think Tesla will anytime soon). It would make shorting TSLA more expensive, since the Shorts will have to pay the dividend (correct me if I'm wrong please).

The recent move to the (non-convertible) bond market does prevent dilution, which we all know is a first. So could it be that Tesla is thinking ahead to how to protect its shareholders?

Just a thought.

(And no, I'm not betting anything...)

That makes a lot of sense. Thank you for sharing.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@Waiting4M3 TSLA will again dip below $335 before October.

@ValueAnalyst only in the dreams of so-called bulls who are waiting on the sidelines.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'll bet you a T-shirt of winners choosing from the Tesla store that they do not get 500,000 reservations for Model Y in the first 24 hours.

*Fine print: 24-hour period starts when reservations are available to the general public. A winner can only be determined if Tesla releases official numbers confirming the total is above or below 500k for the first 24 hours. Winner responsible for notifying loser at the conclusion of the bet. If reservations aren't taken then the bet is a push.

Deal?

@StapleGun deal if we start the 24hr clock at the end of the reveal event.

 

[StapleGun]

@StapleGun deal if we start the 24hr clock at the end of the reveal event.

As long as the reveal is close in time to the start of reservations. Let's say that if Tesla opens up reservations to the general public more than 7 days before the reveal then the bet is a push?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As long as the reveal is close in time to the start of reservations. Let's say that if Tesla opens up reservations to the general public more than 7 days before the reveal then the bet is a push?

Tesla Releases Details On Reserving Your Model 3

It needs to be similar to Model 3 timeline, which is what I based my prediction on, so I'll take the day of.

If the reservation window opens up the day of the reveal event, I'll bet the number of reservations will be more than 500k in "first 24 hours."

Final offer.

 

[StapleGun]

Tesla Releases Details On Reserving Your Model 3

It needs to be similar to Model 3 timeline, which is what I based my prediction on, so I'll take the day of.

If the reservation window opens up the day of the reveal event, I'll bet the number of reservations will be more than 500k in "first 24 hours."

Final offer.

That's what I was trying to get at, your wording is fine. It's a deal!

If you're right my stock gains are going to net me way more than a T-shirt

 

[neroden]

XOM $400B to Zero

@jhm @neroden oil demand will peak by 2025.

@ValueAnalyst pass on the giggle stick because you two are clearly smoking something good.

Ha. I'll take that bet. If I win you reveal your personal background to me (I'll keep it private if you like). If you win, I'll tell you my background -- can't get fairer than that. ;-)

China has made a policy decision to switch its economy to electric cars and trucks. You will probably be surprised how fast a command-and-control economy can make such a change. (India has also made such a policy decision but is a less command-driven economy.)

I can see scenarios where the peak is delayed as late as 2030, to be honest. 2025 is merely one likely scenario. Current trends are making the earlier scenarios more likely.

 

[RubberToe]

Ha. I'll take that bet. If I win you reveal your personal background to me (I'll keep it private if you like). If you win, I'll tell you my background -- can't get fairer than that. ;-)[/QUOTE]

I'll bet that I already know both of your backgrounds!

Planet Earth.

Spot on with the China observation. For a short while now the thought has been rattling around in my brain that an ascending China would replace the U.S. as the World's leading economy, and also clean up their act pollution wise to show the world that growth and environmental degradation do not go hand in hand. And more recently that the U.S. would start backsliding and turn into a third world country where rampant unregulated pollution again becomes the norm for the sake of "growing the economy". People under the age of 35 never lived in the U.S. before the EPA was created, and may not know how things were before then. The people breathing the air in Shanghai know.

Basically the two countries trading places. Not sure if I can conjure up a bet on that unless our grandchildren will accept the payoff conditions

RT

 

[RubberToe]

China has made a policy decision to switch its economy to electric cars and trucks. You will probably be surprised how fast a command-and-control economy can make such a change.

Not a big fan of authotarian regimes, but you do have to marvel what can be accomplished when they pour money into something they want to achieve.

Sometimes I wake up after dreaming that I unfurled and held up a Taiwanese flag in Tianamen square and told the people it would be a good time to start a nice little peoples revolution.

RT

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hi, everybody. I have done some gross margin calculations and I think I know what Tesla is going to do next. They will use the Model 3 for unit targets and the Model S/X to increase gross margins beyond Model 3's 25% average. That means, there can't be any S/X below 25% gross margin. Therefore all 75 kWh S and X cars must be discontinued because those have 11-13% gross margins. I don't know if Tesla will replace the 75's with 85's or just remove them but either way, the 75's will be gone. However, reaching 25% gross margin on the Model 3 will take some time. It will happen most likely in Q2 2018. Based on that, here are my predictions:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
• The Model X 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.
  
• Model S/X will switch from AC induction motors to permanent magnet motors by the end of Q2 2018. The EPA rated range numbers of Model S/X cars will increase after this change.
• Tesla will add the new center console with two smartphone docks to the Model S/X by the end of Q2 2018.
• Today, the most expensive Model S starts at $140,000 before options. On 1st Sep 2018, the most expensive Model S will start at $136,000 or less before options.

I feel confident about these changes. Therefore I have added them to the spreadsheet here. By the way, if you disagree with any of these predictions, feel free to add the opposite prediction to this thread and to the spreadsheet. For example, the opposite of the first one would be "The Model S 75D will NOT be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018." I think that makes it more interesting.

@Troy Tesla will continue to offer a Model S option with a battery size at or less than 80 kWh through 2Q18. Accept?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @ValueAnalyst. You are changing it to something else. This is what I predicted:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.

If you want to challenge me on that, feel free to predict the opposite.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hi, @ValueAnalyst. You are changing it to something else. This is what I predicted:

• The Model S 75D will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018.

If you want to challenge me on that, feel free to predict the opposite.

The reason I changed it is because what if Tesla changes the offering to, say, 76 kWh or 74 kWh? I'm trying to come up with wording that captures the essence of your prediction without leaving room for ambiguity. Any suggestions?

My understanding is that you're predicting Tesla will discontinue any low-range Model S offerings. Correct?

 

[Troy]

@ValueAnalyst, I'm not interested in changing my prediction. Like I explained in that message, Tesla might replace the 75D with something else or just remove it. Either way, the 75D will be gone. They need to make a change to increase the gross margins.