Bet ValueAnalyst at your own risk

[DurandalAI]

Depends on how you define off. I was certainly off by more than you, but if defined as number of weeks you may be only off by 3 to 5 weeks, which is nothing for a long-term investor, as I assume that you are.

Yeah, you’re right on both points. Tesla will hit that 30,000 copy mark in not too long. I was mostly hoping for more Model 3 copies to be sold in Q4 than the Bolt did in all of 2017, but we may just have to wait for 1H2018 to get that. Yes, I’m long term for sure, originally I intended on pulling out some in 2018 to pay for my Model 3, but I think I will leave it there and just do a quick sell/buy to create a taxable event to maximize my $7500 tax credit. My acquaintances may scoff at my investment amount in TSLA, but it’s peanuts compared to most people here.

 

[Alketi]

In an effort to never(?) lose a bet with VA , my newest wager is that Tesla will install fewer than 5,000 solar roofs in 2018.

p.s. VA, shall we close the case on your prediction of less than 10% short interest at 2017 year's end?

p.p.s. Montana just declared me the winner of cparmerlee's 2017 TSLA prediction contest. See! You should really listen to me more often!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In an effort to never(?) lose a bet with VA , my newest wager is that Tesla will install fewer than 5,000 solar roofs in 2018.

The bet is on.

p.s. VA, shall we close the case on your prediction of less than 10% short interest at 2017 year's end?

p.p.s. Montana just declared me the winner of cparmerlee's 2017 TSLA prediction contest. See! You should really listen to me more often!

It’s closed alright. The delay of 5,000/week by six months cost me quite a few bets...

 

[Alketi]

We talked about this a month or so ago, but for the record I believe:

- Tesla won't achieve 5K/week by the end of Q2 (even as they keep re-iterating this goal)
- Tesla won't achieve 10K/week by the end of Q4 (which was zero-doubt, but already appears out-the-window)

Note that by these I mean "steady-state" rates, not burst tests on parts of their line.

I may write a longer post about this someday, but in essence it comes down to parsing their public speak vs. reality.

“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean zero, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year,”

Replace the word "will" with "can", because that's what Elon really means.

Tesla is extraordinarily poor when it comes to predicting any future timeline or numerical value, because such forecasts are made assuming everything goes right -- at every stage. This is Elon 101, backed by numerous examples in his biography. In other words, regarding their run-rate predictions, at the end of Q2 they may finally have battery pack capacity in place for 5K/week, but a bottleneck will suddenly appear elsewhere: parts, paint, storage, transportation, sales centers, etc. It's important to understand that Tesla is always communicating their "goals" and not their "certainties". This is what many bulls don't seem to grasp.

However, when Tesla is communicating something they've measured then they're actually conservative. For example, every 0-60 time has been conservative. Range numbers are typically conservative. This is pure engineering and shows Tesla is not full-of-it. This is what nearly every Bear fails to understand.

So, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but to date, has almost never been found in one of Tesla's public timelines. Therefore I would estimate a less than 10% chance that Tesla actually achieves 5K/week steady-state run-rate by the end of Q2. I hope I'm wrong, but based on history and even psychology, I doubt that I am. The lesson by posting this explanation (I hope) is to make you more conservative as you parse Tesla's public goals.

Cheers.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

XOM $400B to Zero

@jhm @neroden oil demand will peak by 2025.

@ValueAnalyst pass on the giggle stick because you two are clearly smoking something good.

BP Sees Electric Future With Oil Demand Peaking in 2030s

Even though I hope that EM & Team can accelerate 2030s into 2020s, I continue to doubt it. @jhm @neroden

 

[bdy0627]

We talked about this a month or so ago, but for the record I believe:

- Tesla won't achieve 5K/week by the end of Q2 (even as they keep re-iterating this goal)
- Tesla won't achieve 10K/week by the end of Q4 (which was zero-doubt, but already appears out-the-window)

Note that by these I mean "steady-state" rates, not burst tests on parts of their line.

I may write a longer post about this someday, but in essence it comes down to parsing their public speak vs. reality.

“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean zero, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year,”

Replace the word "will" with "can", because that's what Elon really means.

Tesla is extraordinarily poor when it comes to predicting any future timeline or numerical value, because such forecasts are made assuming everything goes right -- at every stage. This is Elon 101, backed by numerous examples in his biography. In other words, regarding their run-rate predictions, at the end of Q2 they may finally have battery pack capacity in place for 5K/week, but a bottleneck will suddenly appear elsewhere: parts, paint, storage, transportation, sales centers, etc. It's important to understand that Tesla is always communicating their "goals" and not their "certainties". This is what many bulls don't seem to grasp.

However, when Tesla is communicating something they've measured then they're actually conservative. For example, every 0-60 time has been conservative. Range numbers are typically conservative. This is pure engineering and shows Tesla is not full-of-it. This is what nearly every Bear fails to understand.

So, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but to date, has almost never been found in one of Tesla's public timelines. Therefore I would estimate a less than 10% chance that Tesla actually achieves 5K/week steady-state run-rate by the end of Q2. I hope I'm wrong, but based on history and even psychology, I doubt that I am. The lesson by posting this explanation (I hope) is to make you more conservative as you parse Tesla's public goals.

Cheers.

Great post. I wish I knew this a couple of years ago as I started investing in TSLA. I've had to slowly figure it out. I know it now but occasionally still can't help myself from getting pulled toward Tesla's hugely optimistic estimates. Even when you think you are being skeptically conservative about their estimates, it's easy to be way off in the optimistic direction. This should be a sticky post for new members to the investor forum. We just saw TT007 take a massive gut punch due to betting heavily on Tesla's estimated production timeline. Fair warning investors.

 

[bdy0627]

Here are the Q1 Model 3 production estimates from various people about 6 weeks ago. Care to guess who you think is right?
Jonas 8,000
Munster 14,300
Maurer 12,000
VA (Base) 20,000
VA (Conservative) 15,000
Waiting4M3 13,000
Generalenthu 12,000
Me 13,000

 

[DurandalAI]

BP Sees Electric Future With Oil Demand Peaking in 2030s

Even though I hope that EM & Team can accelerate 2030s into 2020s, I continue to doubt it. @jhm @neroden

I would agree with you on this somewhat. I think the peak will happen in late 2020s, so let’s say 2028. I expect plug in electrics to be the majority of cars in 2030 for sure.

 

[jhm]

BP Sees Electric Future With Oil Demand Peaking in 2030s

Even though I hope that EM & Team can accelerate 2030s into 2020s, I continue to doubt it. @jhm @neroden

Ha ha, BP carved a decade off their projected peak from mid-2040s to mid-2030s, while I hold steady at 2025. How much more will they have to walk back their projection in coming years?

They aren't even dealing with the threat of commercial EVs to diesel demand. The diesel peak easily happens 5 years before the gasoline peak, and this moves the crude peak up ahead of the gasoline peak. So BP is clearly thinking that the crude peak happens after the gasoline peak. At some point they will have to reverse the sequencing of these peaks. That will signal a fundamental shift in how they are modeling demand. As long as they say the crude peak is substantially later than the gasoline peak, it is very likely that they are simply ignoring commercial EVs.

BTW, BP is projecting just 180M EVs on the road by 2035, while I'm looking at about 1.1B EVs sold from 2026 thru 2035. BP may need just bump up their 180M projection a tad higher next year. In fact, let me predict that next year BP will project about 220M EVs on road by 2035.

 

[TheDoktor]

Here are the Q1 Model 3 production estimates from various people about 6 weeks ago. Care to guess who you think is right?
Jonas 8,000
Munster 14,300
Maurer 12,000
VA (Base) 20,000
VA (Conservative) 15,000
Waiting4M3 13,000
Generalenthu 12,000
Me 13,000

I’ll answer, but only to put in my take to measure up against VA:
Base:10,250
Conservative: 8,500

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I would agree with you on this somewhat. I think the peak will happen in late 2020s, so let’s say 2028. I expect plug in electrics to be the majority of cars in 2030 for sure.

Yes. Big difference between 2025 and 2030, given that EV's are growing exponentially, give or take a few "3 months maybe; 6 months definitlies."

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I’ll answer, but only to put in my take to measure up against VA:
Base:10,250
Conservative: 8,500

SIX WEEKS AFTER! C'mon I have since adjusted to 15k for Base and 12.5k for Conservative.

Here are the Q1 Model 3 production estimates from various people about 6 weeks ago. Care to guess who you think is right?
Jonas 8,000
Munster 14,300
Maurer 12,000
VA (Base) 20,000
VA (Conservative) 15,000
Waiting4M3 13,000
Generalenthu 12,000
Me 13,000

This thread is reserved for tracking agreed upon bets. Take it elsewhere

 

[jhm]

Yes. Big difference between 2025 and 2030, given that EV's are growing exponentially, give or take a few "3 months maybe; 6 months definitlies."

Yep, leading up to the peak, EV sales will be doubling every 24 months or so. Thus there could be as much as a 5.6 fold difference between sales in 2025 and 2030 (assuming the peak does not come on the early side of the range). I model EV penetration going from 26% to 73% in that time. Either way locking in a peak within a 5 year window is pretty doable. That is, plateau that lasts a decade seems very unlikely. Actually I think the peak for gasoline will come when EV penetration is in range of 20% to 30% (depends on ICE replacement rate and new car sales growth at the time). So it only takes about a year, two years tops, to traverse that narrow window.

 

[Alketi]

Newest Teslaquila bets.

Tesla will NOT change to 2170s for S/X in 2018.

Tesla will NOT refresh S/X (exterior) in 2018.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Newest Teslaquila bets.

Tesla will NOT change to 2170s for S/X in 2018.

Tesla will NOT refresh S/X (exterior) in 2018.

You’re on.

 

[RubberToe]

I will bet the following trifecta being true on October 5th 2018 (earnings release day):

1) Tesla's 3rd quarter earnings will show a net profit
2) Tesla will be producing 5,000+ Model 3 vehicles per week
3) TSLA stock price will be 20% above today's close (so $301.15 to $361.40)

RT

 

[Alketi]

Latest shenanigans

M3 Q2 2018 production totals:

Me: 33K
VA: 40K

Push = 36.5K (anything under I win, over VA wins)

p.s. Are you ready to concede on the 5K solar roofs bet in 2018?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Latest shenanigans

M3 Q2 2018 production totals:

Me: 33K
VA: 40K

Push = 36.5K (anything under I win, over VA wins)

Deal

p.s. Are you ready to concede on the 5K solar roofs bet in 2018?

Absolutely not!

 

[Alketi]

Bonus bet -- Tesla will produce fewer than 20K Model 3s in June.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Bonus bet -- Tesla will produce fewer than 20K Model 3s in June.

This is not officially verifiable, so no. It's also related to the previous bet.