Blue Origin: Future Plans

[JB47394]

It is most like Photon from Rocketlab. It's just a big kick stage that can be refueled. I think.

The article mentions providing "refueling, data relay and other logistics services for payloads".

I think the plan is to create it as an logistics vehicle with propulsion. It can be left on orbit so that you don't have to keep lofting the mass of one of these things for each mission. Instead, you loft some fuel and the satellite, rendezvous with the vehicle, refuel it, transfer the satellite, and off it goes on another trip. Once at the destination, it drops off the satellite. From there, it probably just waits until it has another job. That might be to fly to another orbit and refuel a satellite, or grab a satellite and take it down to LEO for disposal or return. It should be fun once satellites are designed for this sort of thing.

Space tug - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And another article by Matija Milenovic, Co-Founder & CEO of porkchop, "a Stockholm-based startup with the goal of establishing an interplanetary economy".

What are Orbital Transfer Vehicles (Space Tugs)?

Matija Milenovic, Co-Founder & CEO of porkchop

porkchop-space.medium.com

 

[bxr140]

I’m trying to understand how the BO “Blue Reef” spacecraft differs from say, the FH second stage that can send payloads to the Moon and Mars. Will Blue Reef be launched on New Glenn and then take its payload to somewhere in cislunar space? If so, how is that different from launching a satellite with its own propulsion system?

Orbital Reef is a space station.

Blue Ring is basically the combination of a multi-user dispenser (like Transporter) and an actual functioning satellite, that together can drive payloads around the solar system, service existing satellites, and stay on orbit for a long period of time. In much more than a Falcon second stage--they have a pretty limited capability, beyond (of course) a ton of delta V.

 

[scaesare]

Man, BO has a lot of plans and very little actual product.

 

[JB47394]

Man, BO has a lot of plans and very little actual product.

Which is pretty much the history of space flight endeavors - certainly private efforts. The glaring exception is SpaceX, and our perceptions are completely warped by its accomplishments.

 

[Grendal]

Man, BO has a lot of plans and very little actual product.

They did send up two test Kuiper satellites. Those have a big deadline looming over them though. Launching rockets? Not so much...

Though I hope to see a New Glenn go up before SpaceX hits 500 launches - and hopefully land a booster. SpaceX makes it look so easy, it would be fun to see another booster work on getting the landings down again.

 

[JB47394]

They did send up two test Kuiper satellites.

Unfortunately, they didn't even do that. They're Amazon satellites, launched by ULA.

 

[Grendal]

Unfortunately, they didn't even do that. They're Amazon satellites, launched by ULA.

Ah. I figured they were BO satellites because Starlinks are SpaceX satellites. Amazon makes sense though.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ah. I figured they were BO satellites because Starlinks are SpaceX satellites. Amazon makes sense though.

Yeah, BO truly hasn’t done anything related to orbital space. Only their almost defunct vertical rocket.

When will we even see the BE-4 engines on an actual flight?

 

[Electroman]

Yeah, BO truly hasn’t done anything related to orbital space.

Two words that debunks your statement: Karman line !!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Two words that debunks your statement: Karman line !!

I specifically chose the words “orbital space” to mean anything that, well, orbits … in space. Karman line is only half that phrase.

 

[Electroman]

Sub Orbital

 

[mongo]

Sub Orbital

Incorrect

Bottle rockets are just as suborbital as New Shepherd, per Federal definition:

Suborbital rocket means a vehicle, rocket-propelled in whole or in part, intended for flight on a suborbital trajectory, and the thrust of which is greater than its lift for the majority of the rocket-powered portion of its ascent. Suborbital trajectory means the intentional flight path of a launch vehicle, reentry vehicle, or any portion thereof, whose vacuum instantaneous impact point does not leave the surface of the Earth.

 

[JB47394]

When will we even see the BE-4 engines on an actual flight?

Vulcan Centaur is the first rocket to use the engines. They completed a test firing in June, and Tory Bruno said that they'd launch in "late 2023". Adjusting for rocket scheduling, figure first quarter 2024. A BE-4 could well make it to orbit before a Raptor given that IFT-2 is not an orbital flight.

Certainly I expect Starship to make orbit before New Glenn.

We've got a tortoise and hare race going, and remember that in the fable the tortoise wins.

As a reminder, Vulcan Centaur is an expended rocket that can loft as much as 27 tons for $200 million. In contrast, Falcon Heavy can loft 64 tons for $100 million. I don't get it. Even if Starship costs $100 million per launch, it'll stil drop payload to orbit to under $1000/kg. All you need to do is find 100 tons to launch. Though I guess SpaceX will always have Starlink satellites to launch.

 

[mongo]

Vulcan Centaur is the first rocket to use the engines. They completed a test firing in June, and Tory Bruno said that they'd launch in "late 2023". Adjusting for rocket scheduling, figure first quarter 2024. A BE-4 could well make it to orbit before a Raptor given that IFT-2 is not an orbital flight.

Aren't the BE-4s only on the first stage?

 

[ecarfan]

As a reminder, Vulcan Centaur is an expended rocket that can loft as much as 27 tons for $200 million. In contrast, Falcon Heavy can loft 64 tons for $100 million. I don't get it. Even if Starship costs $100 million per launch, it'll stil drop payload to orbit to under $1000/kg.

Vulcan seems DOA before it has even arrived.

Maybe it can exist for awhile on government and Kuiper launches. But its future looks bleak.

 

[JB47394]

Aren't the BE-4s only on the first stage?

I wasn't even thinking about that, but you're right. So the race is more properly stated to be one to use a BE-4 or a Raptor on an orbital flight.

I looked up whether Blue Origin was going to pursue a vacuum-optimized BE-4 and they apparently dumped that idea in favor of a vacuum BE-3 engine (BE-3U, 72 tons of thrust per). They already use the sea level BE-3PM engine on New Shepard. Note that it's a hydrogen/oxygen engine, while BE-4 is methane/oxygen. They're going to have fun juggling three main propellant types.

So in the end no BE-4 engine is ever expected to reach orbit.

Unless they have a really bad accident on the way up.

 

[Grendal]

Vulcan seems DOA before it has even arrived.

Maybe it can exist for awhile on government and Kuiper launches. But its future looks bleak.

Vulcan is not as cost effective as Falcon 9 or Heavy but it does have some features that make it a good alternative for customers. I am no expert but from what I have learned from people with more knowledge is that getting to the right place and the right speed can be more critical than launch cost.

Back to Blue Origin, the same has been said about New Glenn. It is also, potentially, a nice alternative for certain types of launches.

Realistically, it is no longer SpaceX versus competition. SpaceX won. It's over. No one is going to take away what SpaceX has grabbed up of the market. Starship is yet another piece of the puzzle and SpaceX will eventually get it up and running. When they do, then no one is going to take that away from SpaceX either.

 

[JB47394]

it does have some features that make it a good alternative for customers

What are those features?

It is also, potentially, a nice alternative for certain types of launches.

What are those launches?

I figure that Blue Origin will be just fine because the US government will want at least two heavy lift providers. I suspect that they will happily limit the mass of their projects to blocks/vehicles that New Glenn can loft to LEO (45 tons), ensuring that even if Elon Musk has a meltdown, they'll be able to carry on. Use of Starship would just allow more blocks (3) to be launched at one time. Private entities can still target Starship exclusively because they're more willing to take on risk.

If the government doesn't send any launches to Vulcan Centaur, then ULA will be out of the launch business. I can't see any expendable rockets surviving this coup de fusée. The government doesn't need three providers, with one of them being dramatically more expensive than the other two.

 

[ecarfan]

If the government doesn't send any launches to Vulcan Centaur, then ULA will be out of the launch business. I can't see any expendable rockets surviving this coup de fusée. The government doesn't need three providers, with one of them being dramatically more expensive than the other two

That may well be the way things are headed. As you noted upthread, Vulcan can put around 27 tons in LEO for $200 million. F9 can do around 18 for about 1/3 the cost? Starship will crush both those figures. New Glenn will likely cost much less than Vulcan even for a much heavier payload.

ULA seems to be living in a fantasy land.

coup de fusée

Nice turn of phrase. One might also say coup d’État par fuseé réutilisable

 

[scaesare]

Incorrect

Bottle rockets are just as suborbital as New Shepherd, per Federal definition:

So Blue Origin HAS done something with regards to orbial space: they've avoided it.