The EV cars make up 1% of the car market, so that is not much of a market to give up. I don't see in the next 2 years while the other car makers start to ramp up that the market is going to change much. Mean while the legacy car makers will still be making money that will fund the ramp up of their electric cars. While Tesla does not have this luxury.
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BMW says they can't mass produce EVs until 2020
- Thread starter mspohr
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- bmw future car
The EV cars make up 1% of the car market, so that is not much of a market to give up. I don't see in the next 2 years while the other car makers start to ramp up that the market is going to change much. Mean while the legacy car makers will still be making money that will fund the ramp up of their electric cars. While Tesla does not have this luxury.
Since that market barely exists yet and all manufacturers will have their products out by the time it starts growing I actually think they`re not risking much here.
I can completely understand every CEO that keeps r&d running in the background but doesn`t greenlight mass production until the market becomes attractive or the production cheap enough.
I don`t like it as a customer at all, it`s downright frustrating, but I can understand it from a business perspective.
The only possible downfall I really see is the complete dependency on partners like LG Chem.
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The problem is demand. People claim the Model 3 with "500,000" reservations prove demand.
The auto market is 100,000,000 a year. The 500,000 is for 2 years. So 250k per year Model 3 demand, or 1 per 400 buyers. Or if all were Year 1, 1 per 200 buyers.
We can measure demand by sales today. 1.2 million PHEVs and BEVs had a buyer for them last year.
The auto market is 100,000,000 a year. The 500,000 is for 2 years. So 250k per year Model 3 demand, or 1 per 400 buyers. Or if all were Year 1, 1 per 200 buyers.
We can measure demand by sales today. 1.2 million PHEVs and BEVs had a buyer for them last year.
Xerox's "investment" in the mouse was trivial. It did become ubiquitous after others realized the value. Xerox didn't have a clue about what was invented at PARC. Why did Kodak fail at digital cameras when lots of other made good money? It wasn't timing. It was clueless marketing (and their stranded investment in film technology).
Tesla is attacking the EV market with "bloodlust" and is so successful that they can sell everything they can make even by increasing production 50% or 100% a year. Hard to call their products a failure when they seem to have the right features and pricing.
I bought a Tesla because it was the first practical EV. I will never buy another ICE car. I'll be buying another EV soon and my choices are Tesla (and no one else). The legacy automakers are ceding the market to Tesla. Someday they might offer something compelling but as long as they continue to make compliance cars, they have lost the market.
Tesla has had more demand for their cars than they can produce for the past few years in spite of rapidly increasing production. They sell every car they make as soon as it's completed. They don't need to advertise. They don't have acres of new cars sitting on dealer lots all over the world waiting for a buyer.
There is no problem with demand. I'll believe there is a problem with demand when you don't have to wait months or years for a new Tesla.
The market for diesels is collapsing rapidly. No money in diesels. Mandates to phase out ICE cars in Europe and China will kill the rest of ICE car demand sooner rather than later. It will be hard to make money with ICE cars.
he was talking about EVs in general and not Tesla. And the EV market, as pointed out already, is still not really attractive or big enough to make big manufacturers actually go for it. If it wasn`t for the CO2 target numbers and the looming billions of fines classic manufacturers probably hadn`t bothered with the electric powertrain for another decade.
Sorry that`s just hyperbolic enthusiast talk.
The change will come, but it won`t be a sudden one as you proclaim here. The gasoline car will be around for quite a while longer for practicality and cost reasons alone. The vague talks about mandates target ~2040 currently and even that has been called ambituous by most already.
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You do understand the 1993? Apple Camera failed right? It was a Kodak, but much cheaper than was possible in '75. Most attempts at digital cameras still failed in that era.
Would you have bought an EV in 1980 with 10kWh for $1,000,000? Then you would not have bought a 'mouse' or a second gen digital camera. Both were over 10 more expensive and problematic.
Your theory that price has no effect on sales doesn't match history.
Let's say I create an EV today that will go 1000 miles and recharge in 5 minutes with full AV functions. Will you pay $100,000,000 for one?
Why not? Marketing should be no problem with such a great car, it would sell itself.
That is the problem of inventing a new tech and bringing it to the market, but NOT continuing to invest until it becomes substantially superior to the legacy tech. Kodak wanted to milk their legacy analog photo technology for another few more decades, and didn't realize someone else took their technology, made it better and killed them.
Tesla is not sitting idle, but making it better and better that now it beats ICE to the punch. Thats the way to be an innovator and be a leader.
davewill
Active Member
"BMW said it wanted to add 25 new electrified models by 2025, of which 12 vehicles will be fully battery electric variants."
Doesn't sound bad to me.
Doesn't sound bad to me.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
People are making a mistake if they believe Elon's goal is to make a profit. He could care less about making a profit. His goal is to electrify personal and business transportation to save the Earth from a slow death by pollution. (also to go to Mars to protect humanity from a wipe out disaster.
He only is interested in making a profit so he can finance future growth. If he can borrow enough money he does not have any need at all to turn a profit.
Cars are currently coming out, production ramping up, Giga Factories coming on line, Stock is rising, Solar production getting better. All things he has accomplished without turning a profit.
He only is interested in making a profit so he can finance future growth. If he can borrow enough money he does not have any need at all to turn a profit.
Cars are currently coming out, production ramping up, Giga Factories coming on line, Stock is rising, Solar production getting better. All things he has accomplished without turning a profit.
"My theory that price has no effect on sales"???
Now you're putting words in my mouth. I never said anything like that.
Part of good marketing is pricing things properly. Marketing is not just advertising. The examples you cite were all priced incorrectly and that is part of why they failed.
I can buy an EV today for $30,000 or $50,000 that goes 200 miles. Tesla is making lots of them and selling every one.
Don't know what your issue is with mice. They have never been expensive. They have been successful whenever they are supported by the OS.
Yep indeed. "2040 ...or somtimes between x and x or maybe probably eventually."
Short for: "We don`t know and don`t really have plans but we have to say something so it looks like we care."
Wake me up once any of those ideas actually get a an official date and the classic manufacturers stop to have more yearly profit than tesla has had investments in their whole existence....
you seem to do so.
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Ask Tesla? Was this question ironic?
Tesla is requiring billions of dollars each calendar year (debt, dilution or a mix using convertible bonds) to stay afloat and keep going.
And how was BMW doing in 2017?
Of course BMW could make / have made more EVs earlier, but it would result in additional red ink (just look at Nissan-Renault and Tesla, two early EV movers since 2010).
BMW wants positive cash-flows and operating profits - they will come in full force around 2020 using EV platforms instead of lower-volume / one-off designs (eg. current i3).
Tesla will be in deep trouble since all car makers will follow BMW - EV buyers will have well over 100+ long-range EV models to choose from by 2020-2025.
Tesla is already posting massive losses with almost zero direct (long-range) EV competition!
My first one was $450. They used a specific metal pad with crosslines in it. They were small pads at that price, or massive ones for the big bucks.
Any computer with a RS232 supported mice. The application dealt with the interface. There was not a driver, the application did handshaking with the RS232 based on the brand of the device. I used to write those. When you wrote software, you needed a specific subroutine for every brand and resolution of video card. And one for the printer. And one for the plotter. And code to deal with memory greater than 640k.
Much like $2500 CRT monitors that were 20" diagonal, they were CAD specific.
Windows claim to fame was concept of semi-universal drivers. The OS handled device communications so you didn't have to write custom code for everything plugged in.
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You snooze, you lose.
BMW hasn't been willing to make the hefty investments required to make EVs. Yes, it does cost a lot to design a new platform and set up supplies of batteries, charging, etc. Tesla is making these investments and as a result has the only viable EVs.
BMW is hoping that they can play catch up by deferring these investments. Time will tell but a shift to EVs will take place during the next five years due to regulatory pressure and economics. BMW risks being an also ran after their core diesel and gas ICE business goes away.
When I see all these people panicking about the investments Tesla is making in EVs, batteries, solar, etc. I have to question their reasoning. Do they not understand the difference between "losing money" because of investments in new products and factories and losing money on each car they sell. Tesla has a 25% profit margin on the things they sell. The can start "making money" any time but they would have to stop investing in future products. BMW is putting off investing in future EVs so they can improve the bottom line today. This is very short sighted. They have already lost the race. Nobody thinks of BMW for an EV. They have no factories to make EVs. They have no designs ready for production. They have no batteries. They have no charging infrastructure. BMW is right when they say they they won't have EVs until 2020 and by then they will be a bit player and their core business of diesels and gas cars will dwindle. Truly short sighted.
I guess you aren‘t familiar with BMW‘s EV plans?
12 long-range BEVs (see Gen 5 in chart below) are coming plus 13 PHEVs...
They have contracts with large Asian battery (cell) suppliers and there are several companies / consortia working on 150-350 kW charging networks.
Ionity is one of them in Europe. BMW is a member:
IONITY - Wikipedia
First look at Ionity ‘ultra-fast’ charging network map of planned stations
Another one is Electrify America - see charging maps in the second link:
If you ignore all these developments (not just from
BMW) you will be in for a rude surprise as a TSLA shareholder (or even just car buyer) in a few months.
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