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Boring Company financial discussion (Out of MA)

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Simple observation: even if just one penny per vehicle-trip is allocated toward insurance and with ~14k vehicles per hour, they can cover the complete replacement cost of an average ~$50k vehicle once every two weeks along said given route.

Which again, should virtually never happen, because of everything listed in post #13.
 
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If Musk has worked out some ingenious legal method of evading legal responsibility, then I suppose that would be a business plan.
I have an ingenious legal method of evading responsibility when I go 200 km/h on the Autobahn: I have an insurance. The insurance figured it's worth taking my money because actual accidents don't happen that frequently. The autobahn is much safer than country roads, where about 2/3rds of lethal accidents happen in Germany.

Edit: By country road I mean non-autobahn and non-city roads, not sure what the proper translation would be.
 
Yup, could have 3-4 second spacing with same throughput.
Now we're starting to talk sanity. 5 second spacing.

You can get some pretty decent throughput with 16-passenger vehicles. The limit then becomes loading and unloading them. If they're designed right, they *can* be loaded in about 5 seconds. Human obnoxious behavior probably doubles this to 10 seconds, but you can always have two loading at once at separate platforms.

The theoretical capacity limit of a subway is, of course, higher. Vancouver SkyTrain, which uses short trains and is automated, has a capacity limit of 24000 passengers/hour, while the NYC Subway 2-track lines, with longer trains but substantially worse signalling, have capacity limits higher than that.

But sure, you can double your "pod" capacity to carry 32 people. Do you see where I'm going here? The *cost-effective* way to increase throughput is to put more people in each vehicle.
 
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Simple observation: even if just one penny per vehicle-trip is allocated toward insurance and with ~14k vehicles per hour, they can cover the complete replacement cost of an average ~$50k vehicle once every two weeks along said given route.

Which again, should virtually never happen, because of everything listed in post #13.
It's never the vehicle liability, it's the personal injury liability.
 
It's never the vehicle liability, it's the personal injury liability.

Let's look up those numbers, shall we?

What’s the Average Car Accident Settlement? | Knapp & Roberts

A culmination of car accident claim data shows the average car accident settlement falls between $14,000 and $28,000 – or right around $21,000. The average value of a more serious car accident is around $31,000.

Double it. Triple it. Quadruple it. Quintuple it. Still irrelevant, even if accidents wouldn't be exceedingly rare. Which they would be - see #13.
 
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I would like to point out the "bridge fell on it" or "tunnel roof collapse" case, which has happened. Yes, a car CAN stop instantaneously, although it may seem to be an unusual case: put a large enough mass in front of it, it stops. Being able to stop before a fixed obstacle which "dropped out of the sky" is the basis of all safety design in transportation

And again, if you decide to loosen and weaken safety standards for an autonomous, governed tunnel, you can loosen them for trains too.

No transport system is designed to handle an sufficiently large object falling on it. Additionally, for any speed, there is a zone where the vehicle will still be moving when it hits the object. Not sure what you are referring to with trains...

If the tunnel collapsed instantaneously, then 3-4 cars would impact maximum. However, Boring tunnels are interlocking sections that cannot fall in suddenly, unlike the issue with Boston's Big Dig and the use of the wrong type of epoxy.


Now we're starting to talk sanity. 5 second spacing.

You can get some pretty decent throughput with 16-passenger vehicles. The limit then becomes loading and unloading them. If they're designed right, they *can* be loaded in about 5 seconds. Human obnoxious behavior probably doubles this to 10 seconds, but you can always have two loading at once at separate platforms.

The theoretical capacity limit of a subway is, of course, higher. Vancouver SkyTrain, which uses short trains and is automated, has a capacity limit of 24000 passengers/hour, while the NYC Subway 2-track lines, with longer trains but substantially worse signalling, have capacity limits higher than that.

But sure, you can double your "pod" capacity to carry 32 people. Do you see where I'm going here? The *cost-effective* way to increase throughput is to put more people in each vehicle.

I see where you are going, but at what point does optimizing one value (max density) start to reduce the overall value? Two lines with 16 person pods could serve twice as many locations, with faster load/ unload times/ than one line with 32 person pods.
 
Overall, I find the Boring Company interesting, and worth pursuing. That said, we know that at this stage of development of at least some of Elon's previous projects, he's talked about how he thought failure was significantly more likely than success. He doesn't say it at the time, of course, but, he's been aware of it on other projects at this part of their lifecycle. Not saying Musk seeing failure as more probable than success definitely applies to the Boring Company, but, it may well. Again, still looks very interesting, and as Musk repeatedly mentioned last night, the goal is to vastly improve a situation that effects a very large portion of us. Glad to see he's taking this on.


As to how closely vehicles in the tunnel can follow each other at these high speeds,

In last night's presentation, Musk listed autonomous capability (or some autonomous capability) as a requirement for vehicles in the tunnel.

While not requiring that vehicles be Tesla's to use Boring company tunnels, I could see them requiring a standardized "tunnel mode" for the vehicles using the tunnels. This could standardize acceleration and braking protocols across all vehicles in the tunnels, particularly strictly for the main arteries with the highest speeds. They could standardize the vehicles' responses not only to controlled braking and acceleration related to traffic and merge points, but also to some extent, the response to outlier events like some shift in the tunnel's structure, or failure in a particular vehicle, requiring a safety response from vehicles following in the tunnel.

While I don't think any of us can say precisely how close or how far off Musk's aspirations are from what may actually be built, it seems quite likely to me that the main arteries, with their single lane of traffic, and all vehicles being not only autonomous in terms of braking and accelerating, but, all having one known, standardized, set of specs for braking and accelerating, will be able to operate at significantly closer follow distances than human drivers on multilane highways (or current tunnels for that matter) at similar speeds.
 
Boring Gary.jpg


Many Roadster owners in attendance last night.
 
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The guide wheel system could also include as extra range detector and acceleration interface to the vehicle (if needed).

Yes, perhaps. It's kind of nearing vehicle to vehicle communication.

I think it's worth noting that at this point in Tesla's development, they were talking about developing vehicles that were either something like the Volt's drivetrain or plug-in hybrids (don't remember which, but, definitely an offering that was not pure EV). It's early... last night they dropped the "sled" idea for these guide wheels. It will be years before we have much of a picture of what a large scale tunnel system might be, or, if it happens at all on a large scale.

While I like that they are going down this path, it seems reasonable that what I see as Neroden's basic point is well taken... there's so much they don't know about this. Musk has talked about trying to become "less stupid" over time, like trying to work off a Lotus rather than start from scratch with the Roadster was "stupid" (or trying to automate so much at once in Model 3 manufacturing). For now, jumping in eagerly with basic research at low cost for Musk is probably fine. Kind of a big new playground for Musk and some of his engineering friends. When it comes to actually delivering something for a major city for billions of dollars that public safety will be impacted by... at that point, yeah, hope they have some Nerodens in the room.
 
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Elon Musk on Twitter

Next step for @BoringCompany Loop is demonstrating high throughput at high speed. Target is 4000 vehicles/hour at 155mph (250km/h).

Elon Musk on Twitter

A variety of vehicles, like normal roads, from a small car to a densely seated bus. Must be seated & belted for high speed safety.

Elon Musk on Twitter

If all vehicles were densely seated buses, throughput in excess of 100,000 people per hour per lane is possible, but better to offer a range of vehicles & let people decide what makes them happy
 
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Yes, perhaps. It's kind of nearing vehicle to vehicle communication.

I think it's worth noting that at this point in Tesla's development, they were talking about developing vehicles that were either something like the Volt's drivetrain or plug-in hybrids (don't remember which, but, definitely an offering that was not pure EV). It's early... last night they dropped the "sled" idea for these guide wheels. It will be years before we have much of a picture of what a large scale tunnel system might be, or, if it happens at all on a large scale.

While I like that they are going down this path, it seems reasonable that what I see as Neroden's basic point is well taken... there's so much they don't know about this. Musk has talked about trying to become "less stupid" over time, like trying to work off a Lotus rather than start from scratch with the Roadster was "stupid" (or trying to automate so much at once in Model 3 manufacturing). For now, jumping in eagerly with basic research at low cost for Musk is probably fine. Kind of a big new playground for Musk and some of his engineering friends. When it comes to actually delivering something for a major city for billions of dollars that public safety will be impacted by... at that point, yeah, hope they have some Nerodens in the room.
I agree; nothing wrong with Musk playing around. In regards to treating this as a real company, I guess I have two real concerns.

#1. If the plan is to actually do this as a profitable private venture, they really need to do their homework. Profits in transportation are difficult, and largely depend on economies of scale, and you can be shut down for one safety violation, even if it seems like an unreasonable overreaction, and getting approval at all requires navigating difficult political waters (he's *already* getting complaints from local businesses who have been evicted because he bought their property, and that's just for the test tunnel).
#2. If the plan is to get government contracts -- which doesn't seem like Musk's style, but then there's SpaceX -- I don't want the government wasting money on less efficient, poorly tested options.
#3. (Sort of a combination of #1 and #2). The worst-case scenario is that city governments use Musk's *vaporware* as an excuse to not build the subways they actually need, and then the vaporware fails to address the problems which the subways would have addressed. This actually seems like a likely outcome based on Musk's fooling around so far. And we've seen this happen *over and over again* in mass transportation. I can point you to "Bus Rapid Transit" nonsense, "podcars" such as the Miami Metromover/Detroit Peoplemover, monorails, claims that Uber & Lyft would replace mass transport, and on and on and on; dumb *sugar* is used as an excuse to not build subways, repeatedly, and it takes a couple of decades to admit that it didn't really work and they should have spent the money on subways. There's *100 years* of this sort of destructive nonsense.

The pitiful part is that it is quite feasible to make tunnel-digging, and heavy construction in general, cheaper and faster. Why the obession with reinventing the wheel? The conical wheel works very well, for first-principles physics reasons which Musk probably doesn't actually understand. Although I could explain it to him in five minutes.

(Oh. Another example: BART, where aircraft engineers thought they could make a better train. They couldn't. They used cylindrical wheels. They ended up with trains which cost twice as much and were many times louder. This is only being fixed *now*, this year. Moral: do your homework.)

P.S. You can even build cars & buses which run on steel wheels on tracks & on rubber wheels on asphalt, using a similar, but better and more foolproof, technology than the retractable rubber wheels Musk was showing off. They were being tested for commercial use in Japan a couple of years ago.
 
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I agree; nothing wrong with Musk playing around. In regards to treating this as a real company, I guess I have two real concerns.

#1. If the plan is to actually do this as a profitable private venture, they really need to do their homework. Profits in transportation are difficult, and largely depend on economies of scale, and you can be shut down for one safety violation, even if it seems like an unreasonable overreaction, and getting approval at all requires navigating difficult political waters (he's *already* getting complaints from local businesses who have been evicted because he bought their property, and that's just for the test tunnel).
#2. If the plan is to get government contracts -- which doesn't seem like Musk's style, but then there's SpaceX -- I don't want the government wasting money on less efficient, poorly tested options.
#3. (Sort of a combination of #1 and #2). The worst-case scenario is that city governments use Musk's *vaporware* as an excuse to not build the subways they actually need, and then the vaporware fails to address the problems which the subways would have addressed. This actually seems like a likely outcome based on Musk's fooling around so far. And we've seen this happen *over and over again* in mass transportation. I can point you to "Bus Rapid Transit" nonsense, "podcars" such as the Miami Metromover/Detroit Peoplemover, monorails, claims that Uber & Lyft would replace mass transport, and on and on and on; dumb *sugar* is used as an excuse to not build subways, repeatedly, and it takes a couple of decades to admit that it didn't really work and they should have spent the money on subways. There's *100 years* of this sort of destructive nonsense.

The pitiful part is that it is quite feasible to make tunnel-digging, and heavy construction in general, cheaper and faster. Why the obession with reinventing the wheel? The conical wheel works very well, for first-principles physics reasons which Musk probably doesn't actually understand. Although I could explain it to him in five minutes.

(Oh. Another example: BART, where aircraft engineers thought they could make a better train. They couldn't. They used cylindrical wheels. They ended up with trains which cost twice as much and were many times louder. This is only being fixed *now*, this year. Moral: do your homework.)

P.S. You can even build cars & buses which run on steel wheels on tracks & on rubber wheels on asphalt, using a similar, but better and more foolproof, technology than the retractable rubber wheels Musk was showing off. They were being tested for commercial use in Japan a couple of years ago.

So negative :oops:....

#1 Yes they are doing this, yes they're doing testing, yes they are on their 3rd generation of digger
#2 You presuppose it won't work
#3 Why are most of your examples street based systems?
How much disruption and cost is there to add a subway to an exiting metro area?

What wheel is getting reinvented?

What does Bart have to do with anything?

The pop out wheels are guides, it does not run on them. No need for the added expense and failure mode of rails.
 
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The problem is that I don't want to go where those 16 or 32 people are going, unless in very specific circumstances. Subways are great in certain circumstances, but they lack utility in most of the US. Perhaps even 8 is too many.
 
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What wheel is getting reinvented?
Read it again.

What does Bart have to do with anything?
Reinventing the wheel.

No need for the added expense and failure mode of rails.
Reduced failure modes by using rails, actually, as you'd know if you had learned literally the first thing about the topic.

You don't want me to go into the history of attempts to replace the conical-wheel-on-rail guideway with other, less effective schemes for maintaining vehicle stability and comfort at high speeds. Suffice it to say Musk's trying things which *have been tried before* and *found wanting*. He has not demonstrated any improvements over what's already been tried.
 
Read it again.


Reinventing the wheel.


Reduced failure modes by using rails, actually, as you'd know if you had learned literally the first thing about the topic.

You don't want me to go into the history of attempts to replace the conical-wheel-on-rail guideway with other, less effective schemes for maintaining vehicle stability and comfort at high speeds. Suffice it to say Musk's trying things which *have been tried before* and *found wanting*. He has not demonstrated any improvements over what's already been tried.

Failure modes of wheels: A trail wheel is a curved self centering object only when paired with another wheel directly opposite. Train wheels are not infallible, when they crack, you lose your constraining feature and derail.The Boring system achieves the same end with two wheels per side. Even if the tire blows, you have the rim, and the trench side contains the car. Theoretically, the side wheels are not needed.

Failure modes of rails: Train wheels require the rails. How many train crashes have occurred due to rail misalignment or switching errors?
Boring requires only the concrete.

When has the Boring method been used before? I'm interested to see why it failed.
 
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If by "most of the US", you mean "most of the land area", then sure, most of the land area doesn't need subways. Most of the population, however, does.

Most of the population has a limit to how far they will walk.
Most of the population has a limit to how much time their commute will take.
Some of the population has the ability to locate and acquire conveyance to make commuting reasonable.
Many do not.

So say you have a 10 mile by 10 mile metro area and people only want to walk 0.5 miles to get somewhere. That is 0.25 miles at each end of the route. So you need 20x20 = 400 stops on your transportation system. You are not going to run subways lines every half mile, so you have some subway and some bus. The buses are locked into the same traffic as everything else, so the trip is slow. The buses do not go exactly where you want to go, so you change buses, more time gone. Maybe the bus route crosses a subway line near a station, you do another change to get on the subway, more time gone. but you move along that section faster.
The further from the center you go, the less dense the coverage and the longer the trip takes.

v.s. many tunnels with no traffic lights, no accidents, no weather, no pedestrians. People crossing the town or going from the suburbs to the center can drive to the entrance, descend to the network, and ascend at their destination in a fairly known time. You travel in one pod, no switching, so you could work on it, but the trip will be so short, why bother?

Digging tunnels does not require ripping up the street, displacing utilities, or otherwise impact residents daily lives. It is parallelable.

Cut and cover subway creation is none of these things.
 
I was not able to ascertain from last night's video just how many tunnels The Boring Company thinks a full-figured high-speed Trunk Tunnel + ___#?___ entry/exit-speed Branch Tunnels would be ideal. Six? Thirty?

As such, I think it's highly optimistic to characterize this project as "cheaper than a subway to build". I'd like it to be so and if Mr Musk ever achieves his desired breakthoughs in boring speeds then perhaps it will be. Regardless, for the moment it smells like verbal chicanery to term "a single tunnel is faster and cheaper than a subway", as Fact Checking's initial post in this thread is championing. It seems to me that a single tunnel is akin to a single hand clapping - you do need more....
 
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As such, I think it's highly optimistic to characterize this project as "cheaper than a subway to build". I'd like it to be so and if Mr Musk ever achieves his desired breakthoughs in boring speeds then perhaps it will be. Regardless, for the moment it smells like verbal chicanery to term "a single tunnel is faster and cheaper than a subway", as Fact Checking's initial post in this thread is championing. It seems to me that a single tunnel is akin to a single hand clapping - you do need more....

I believe Elon's comparison for track to track.

LA Test Tunnel:
length 1.14 miles
cost: $10 million
time to construct: 13 months (based on Nov 17 permit to Dec 18 completion)

At $9 million a mile it is cheaper than a subway track. At $18 million per mile for two tracks, it is cheaper than a two lane subway. At a year a mile, it is 4 times slower that the faster end of tunnel construction. With a 4x speed up (plus doing it for real the second time) it will be at the top spot. (and correspondingly less cost)

Ars takes a first tour of the length of The Boring Company’s test tunnel
He estimated that an 18-mile, two-way Loop like the one the company is contracted to build in Chicago will run somewhere around $1 billion, while a smaller complete system could run under $100 million.
36 miles of tunnel plus two stations plus all the pods for <$30 million a mile all in.

The U.S. Gets Less Subway for Its Money Than Its Peers - CityLab
NYC Second Ave Subway was $2.6 Billion per mile.

Least expensive project in that article was Atlanta I-20 East Heavy Rail in a freeway median at $170 million per mile.

Edit: light rail gets down to about $120 million per mile in the US. Subway runs around $900 million per mile. That's at least a factor of 5x over Boring (assuming 2 Boring tunnels to one subway).
 
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