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Brexit - The £ - and Tesla

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Btw, now that you specifically mention Oppenheimer, I will mention that I actually worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory for a couple of years, in what can fairly be described as a spin-off of the Manhattan project. With Edward Teller as one notable exception, I don't think the intimidatingly smart people behind the fissile and fusion bombs can be said to have been in favor of MAD.

I in no way intended to imply anyone involved in the Manhattan project was in favour of MAD. From what I understand they were sickened with how their invention was used hence the quote "I am the destroyer of worlds". However, I would put forward the prospect of the frankly insane idea of using a weapon like this would stop major powers starting a war. Well I would hope no one would be nuts enough to do it. But to credit the EU, which is a recent evolution of the old common market, with stopping wars I still find laughable. That is my opinion, and I respect yours.
 
Returning somewhat to the original topic - I'm hovering over the 'buy' button for a 60D, on PCP. The salesman I'm talking to has told me today that the lease terms are being revised from 1 July. He couldn't share numbers, but the balloon is going down and monthly payments are increasing. No idea if that's a normal review of lease terms/residuals or related to exchange rate changes.
 
The balloon will go down if they think the car will be worth less at the end. I think that the imminent arrival of the Model 3 will do far more damage to the resale value of a 60D then any other variant. I wouldn't be surprised if after 3 years the guaranteed buy back is well under 50%.
 
If Tesla is forced to put up their price, because of unfavourable exchange rate, will that reduce depreciation (in the shape of a higher resale price) for existing owners?

That was the experience in Canada when our dollar took a nose dive (except for me those of use who got our cars just before AP hardware was added -- we will never make up the huge hit in depreciation that gave us!).
 
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23rd February the market closed with £ against the $ for $1.38. Today it has closed at $1.34. OMG, lets start a huge panic!!!!!
the perception of panic was induced by the media on behalf of the ruling elitists who have the most to lose. in reality not much will change for many many months down the road. and despite this vote the UK completely disengaging economically from the rest of the EU is quite unlikely.
 
23rd February the market closed with £ against the $ for $1.38. Today it has closed at $1.34. OMG, lets start a huge panic!!!!!

Nice selective dates but no one thinks the currency and markets won't rebound and no one is panicking.

This is about the direction of Europe and the type of future we want for our children.

By the way, I really liked Nigel Farage's speech to EU parliament. I can't stand most of the "leaders" on both sides. If you really want to know how the economy is controlled, you need to understand how we got here, and it's all explained in detail in this award winning documentary:

 
23rd February the market closed with £ against the $ for $1.38.

FTSE back above the level it was on referendum day too (but I can't imagine it will stay there ...). Clearly the Leave vote might have been a cause for concern with investors ... but for the life of me I can't think what has changed to bring the markets back up again ... Institutions unloaded their positions ... hedge funds knew they would ... and Institutions knew that hedge funds knew that but unloaded anyway ... I guess those shenanigans have now been completed, along with the profit-taking ... all at the cost of the man in the street's pension and the like.
 
The UK will still trade with countries in the EU, after all, I can't see BMW, Audi, VW, Mercedes etc not selling their cars to us. It's not like there's a Tesla we could buy instead :)

It's not really about whether the UK would keep trading or not, it's about how the deal will go on. A lot of Vote Leave think we can get a better deal out of the EU. Obviously a lot of this hasn't been decided yet so currently it's out there as a risk. The EU have stated that free movement will be a requirement. Would the next cons leader accept this during negotiations? If so, would the deal be worse off than the EEA (which has a free movement requirement).

My main concern is that there has been a big middle finger to us from the EU, and I doubt this is just because of Vote Leave (I'm thinking of Farage), this isn't going to help.

FTSE back above the level it was on referendum day too (but I can't imagine it will stay there ...). Clearly the Leave vote might have been a cause for concern with investors ... but for the life of me I can't think what has changed to bring the markets back up again ... Institutions unloaded their positions ... hedge funds knew they would ... and Institutions knew that hedge funds knew that but unloaded anyway ... I guess those shenanigans have now been completed, along with the profit-taking ... all at the cost of the man in the street's pension and the like.

Lots of panic selling and lots of opportunity buying I suspect. If you go by sector then financials are all over the place but natural resources are (as you would expect in "uncertain" times) on the up.

Also I think the fact we have to negotiate 2 years before we leave, which hasn't been that public until a day or 2 after the vote, I suspect has calmed some investors.


We will see in 6 months what things are like, when the new PM is announced, the negotiations. It could come out for the better, markets rise and the £ gets back up there. However, from Tesla/Elon's view, he's likely to try and place is safe against the currency changes and make it more expensive for us British (as previously shown by the Canadian's).
 
The EU have stated that free movement will be a requirement. Would the next cons leader accept this during negotiations?

I don't think they are at all united in what they will agree, just trying to appear so. Dutch saying "For those in NL thinking of leaving look at how the Pound / FTSE has fallen" ... that was before they recovered of course. Universal statement on "Must have free movement" and then French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, saying on BBC's Newsnight that everything, including free movement, was up for discussion. The Spanish worry about the Basques wanting to leave and need to cover their front, back and both sides ... most of the countries have one worry or another to try to prevent coming to pass, and collectively it must be incredible hard to plot a line that all can agree on and follow.

USA and Canada are negotiating trade agreements with EU, which do not include free movement. Presumably not as Wunderbar as a Single market agreement, but not bad for a starting point - particularly if UK will also have agreement with Oz etc. which will bring down our food costs, and other raw materials too. Although maybe EU will scrap those USA/CA negotiations now because of the risk that they would have to then offer same-as to UK ... no wonder Obama was campaigning for UK to stay in EU ... who knows ... all the EU states will each be campaigning for Me-Me-Me no doubt, which will stymie negotiations' progress, and provide opportunity for other countries to leap into the vacuum.
 
FTSE back above the level it was on referendum day too (but I can't imagine it will stay there ...). Clearly the Leave vote might have been a cause for concern with investors ... but for the life of me I can't think what has changed to bring the markets back up again ... Institutions unloaded their positions ... hedge funds knew they would ... and Institutions knew that hedge funds knew that but unloaded anyway ... I guess those shenanigans have now been completed, along with the profit-taking ... all at the cost of the man in the street's pension and the like.

FTSE100 might be, but the more representative UK FTSE250 certainly isn't
 
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I see the cloth headed muppet Boris Johnson having shafted us all by selling Brexit under false pretences to the gullible, is now too spineless to stand for PM.

Somebody needs to get a grip and work on a plan to fix this mess.
Unfortunately I can't see that being Theresa May who seems to be the next most likely candidate.
 
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