Brexit

[petit_bateau]

blindingly obvious, and just as predicted

Brexit to blame for rising inflation, says former Bank of England governor

Mark Carney says Bank’s negative predictions about consequences of leaving EU ‘proven to be the case’

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

I'm sure the definition of stupidity is expecting a different result after repetiton

Only 18% of 2016 leave voters believe Brexit has been a success, according to polling for the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe – but 61% think it will turn out well in the end.

Only 18% of leave voters think Brexit has been a success, poll finds

Survey seven years on from referendum shows many believe politicians have let them down, thinktank says

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Britons who want to rejoin EU at highest since 2016, survey finds
Data showed 58% would vote to re-enter bloc, while more respondents said they trusted the European Commission more than the UK government

Britons who want to rejoin EU at highest levels since 2016, survey finds

Data showed 58% would vote to re-enter bloc, while respondents said they trusted the European Commission more than the UK government

www.theguardian.com

===========

“It’s been Brexit, pure and simple,” is how Smith analyses the service’s current woes. “The timetable is still suppressed, and they are not selling every seat because they don’t want to create massive queues at St Pancras.

“They are no longer going for growth and low fares. They are going for the maximum yield on the services they can run and the seats they can sell.”

With HS1 access costs “two or three times higher than the high-speed line in France”, plus border security costs, Smith says, “we’re now in a situation where it costs you 110 quid to get from London to Paris, and then 29 euros for the seven-hour journey from Paris to Milan with two operators competing.”

Adieu Mickey Mouse: Eurostar’s shrinking ambitions seven years on from the Brexit vote

When the Channel Tunnel first opened there were visions of seamless pan-European travel from the UK. Now the Disneyland Paris route has been axed and the Amsterdam route delayed, what went wrong?

www.theguardian.com

 

[Buckminster]

Britons who want to rejoin EU at highest since 2016, survey finds
Data showed 58% would vote to re-enter bloc, while more respondents said they trusted the European Commission more than the UK government

Britons who want to rejoin EU at highest levels since 2016, survey finds

Data showed 58% would vote to re-enter bloc, while respondents said they trusted the European Commission more than the UK government

www.theguardian.com

===========

“It’s been Brexit, pure and simple,” is how Smith analyses the service’s current woes. “The timetable is still suppressed, and they are not selling every seat because they don’t want to create massive queues at St Pancras.

“They are no longer going for growth and low fares. They are going for the maximum yield on the services they can run and the seats they can sell.”

With HS1 access costs “two or three times higher than the high-speed line in France”, plus border security costs, Smith says, “we’re now in a situation where it costs you 110 quid to get from London to Paris, and then 29 euros for the seven-hour journey from Paris to Milan with two operators competing.”

Adieu Mickey Mouse: Eurostar’s shrinking ambitions seven years on from the Brexit vote

When the Channel Tunnel first opened there were visions of seamless pan-European travel from the UK. Now the Disneyland Paris route has been axed and the Amsterdam route delayed, what went wrong?

www.theguardian.com

It's been 7 years and leavers still think it will turn out well (Times today). Do you really want us talking about this for the 10+ years it will take to go back into EU with Euro etc.? This will only increase polarisation.

I think it would be much better to embrace Brexit, prove that life was better before and then re-enter when the population are aligned.

Single most likely future that I can see is:
2 years of Sunak
8 years of Starmer (approx 3 more Tory leaders in opposition)
Tories run and win (2033) with a referendum (in 2035) to re-enter in 2037

 

[JupiterMan]

I think it would be much better to embrace Brexit, prove that life was better before and then re-enter when the population are aligned.

to fix a problem you first have to admit that you have a problem.

That the current government see no failings in policy as a result of Brexit or the TCAA is problematic..... and that Labour still will not properly address this either is worrying.

It's been 7 years and leavers still think it will turn out well (Times today)

61% of leavers apparently, still a big number, but that gives a total of 31.7% (52% x 61%) who think Brexit will work well... a minority.

Single most likely future that I can see is:
2 years of Sunak
8 years of Starmer (approx 3 more Tory leaders in opposition)
Tories run and win (2033) with a referendum (in 2035) to re-enter in 2037

I kind of agree with this.

Will be interesting to see how quickly Tory policy changes in opposition.

Another factor that will push this (either way) is as the TCAA gets periodically reviewed, there will likely be calls for a closer relationship in the meantime, reigniting conversations about the four freedoms and single market membership.

Do you really want us talking about this for the 10+ years it will take to go back into EU with Euro etc.? This will only increase polarisation.

Just as there was Farage and the like banging the drum for Brexit ever since we joined EEA, it is important that there are voices for rejoining being heard until we re-join.

Also, as an aside, whilst very sad circumstances and destructive for our people and our nation, I find it fascinating, and watching and cataloging the outcomes, the changes in views and changes in party policies is for me of interest.

 

[Buckminster]

Scexit is trending on Twitter. Need to get that into the calendar. I think England will be less likely to vote to rejoin if it looks like we are following Scotland in.

 

[petit_bateau]

It's been 7 years and leavers still think it will turn out well (Times today). Do you really want us talking about this for the 10+ years it will take to go back into EU with Euro etc.? This will only increase polarisation.

I think it would be much better to embrace Brexit, prove that life was better before and then re-enter when the population are aligned.

Single most likely future that I can see is:
2 years of Sunak
8 years of Starmer (approx 3 more Tory leaders in opposition)
Tories run and win (2033) with a referendum (in 2035) to re-enter in 2037

If Brexiters think that Rejoiners are going to roll over then they are very very wrong.

Brexiters have made this meal, and it seems quite likely that they will get forced to eat it, even though they now realise it was always going to be laced with poison.

Then Rejoin takes over.

Whether the UK survives is almost irrelevant.

 

[Buckminster]

If Brexiters think that Rejoiners are going to roll over then they are very very wrong.

Brexiters have made this meal, and it seems quite likely that they will get forced to eat it, even though they now realise it was always going to be laced with poison.

Then Rejoin takes over.

Whether the UK survives is almost irrelevant.

It is the remainers that will get to eat it. The brexiteers are retired. The 70 yr olds will be rioting before they rejoin. Walking sticks breaking shop windows could ruin us...

 

[petit_bateau]

It is the remainers that will get to eat it. The brexiteers are retired. The 70 yr olds will be rioting before they rejoin. Walking sticks breaking shop windows could ruin us...

Rejoiners are working towards the future.
Brexiters were always living in the past.
It is by no means clear that the UK will survive this.

 

[Buckminster]

Rejoiners are working towards the future.
Brexiters were always living in the past.
It is by no means clear that the UK will survive this.

The you talk about the UK not surviving this, I assume you mean losing Scotland and NI. The average Englander won't be bothered by that and will indeed incite more nationalism which works against rejoining.

 

[petit_bateau]

The you talk about the UK not surviving this, I assume you mean losing Scotland and NI. The average Englander won't be bothered by that and will indeed incite more nationalism which works against rejoining.

We shall see. Personally I am unsure how that might play out if it were to come to pass. It might be that Little Englanders would discover that the world is even less welcoming once the UN P5 seat is lost; the miltary emasculated (the nuclear deterrent would be pretty much unsustainable at that point); and the land border with Scotland is by then a EU border.

But if that does come to pass (and I am not sure it will) then for sure, it will be Brexiters that caused it.

But there are no reasons for Rejoiners to put their hands in the still moving train wreck and get involved in the blame.

 

[Buckminster]

We shall see. Personally I am unsure how that might play out if it were to come to pass. It might be that Little Englanders would discover that the world is even less welcoming once the UN P5 seat is lost; the miltary emasculated (the nuclear deterrent would be pretty much unsustainable at that point); and the land border with Scotland is by then a EU border.

But if that does come to pass (and I am not sure it will) then for sure, it will be Brexiters that caused it.

But there are no reasons for Rejoiners to put their hands in the still moving train wreck and get involved in the blame.

England would maintain UN seat plus nukes. Scotland is a little over 10% of GDP. Scotland the ones that need to worry about a border.

Rejoiners may decide to assist with the future of their country rather than enjoy watching it crash (pride of failure ugh - elites shooting themselves and those in poverty in the foot) at some point.

 

[petit_bateau]

England would maintain UN seat plus nukes. Scotland is a little over 10% of GDP. Scotland the ones that need to worry about a border.

Rejoiners may decide to assist with the future of their country rather than enjoy watching it crash (pride of failure ugh - elites shooting themselves and those in poverty in the foot) at some point.

You appear to be misunderstanding something : this is all a problem for Brexiters.

 

[Buckminster]

You appear to be misunderstanding something : this is all a problem for Brexiters.

They will be far less likely to see it as a problem plus remainers will be much more affected. Younger etc.

 

[petit_bateau]

Seven years on, Brexiters talk more about remainers than Brexit​

...........the failure of Brexit as the clear, established and growing public view that it was a mistake. For Brexit was never supposed to be a project of permanent division, a national future constantly contested and with a declining minority supporting it.

............... this obsession with ‘remainers’ goes much wider than the attempt to blame them for Johnson’s richly-deserved and far too belated disgrace. Not only do Brexiters no longer make reference to their own promises of seven years ago, but they are fixated on the now totally irrelevant remain campaign.

........the fact is that a clear and growing majority of the public think that Brexit has been a mistake, .....because ordinary people, seven years from the referendum, have seen what it means and see it as having failed. As the pollster Peter Kellner wrote this week, “Britain is now an anti-Brexit country”.

Seven years on, Brexiters talk more about remainers than Brexit

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

 

[JupiterMan]

The you talk about the UK not surviving this, I assume you mean losing Scotland and NI. The average Englander won't be bothered by that and will indeed incite more nationalism which works against rejoining.

I see it the other way round.

Should Scotland get independence, and should they then pursue EU membership, it would put England/Wales in an ever more isolated position, it would also highlight to the English even clearer the real problems of the TCAA and how it inhibits trade, as it would be quite difficult to implement the English/Scottish border in that respect.

It could however make Scotland an attractive place for business, being the only EU state with a land border with England. We have seen much UK business move to EU countries for distribution purposes into EU, it's not wild to consider Scotland becoming an attractive Single market territory to distribute EU produce into England.

From Scotland's point of view it would also likely mean they could not join Schengen, so a CTA would have to be in place between Scotland and England/Wales, just like the ROI one.

However that would put an EU based Scotland in a very powerful position should England/Wales rejoin after, as they could, in theory, insist upon Schengen adoption for England if they want to rejoin, effectively enabling the whole of the British Isles to become full Schengen members for the first time.

As for the nationalism angle, just like every country around the world, that will always be there, however there has been a significant change in the last few years. Before Brexit, leavers could use emotion as their main weapon against EU membership. That has now changed. now they have their Brexit they are now having to reason with facts, which aren't really in their favor. There will always be outliers who insist this is not a "proper brexit" and such to deflect the realities, but in my view this is a shrinking segment.

As ever it will be the media barons who ultimately control much of when things happen. At some point their financial backers will have milked brexit for all its worth to them, and could move on to the next thing. Watching the evolving EU narrative in the press will be interesting.

There have already been some isolated articles in Telegraph for example which have admitted failure, and looked at the wider picture. For me these are the signposts we need to watch.

 

[petit_bateau]

I see it the other way round.

Should Scotland get independence, and should they then pursue EU membership, it would put England/Wales in an ever more isolated position, it would also highlight to the English even clearer the real problems of the TCAA and how it inhibits trade, as it would be quite difficult to implement the English/Scottish border in that respect.

It could however make Scotland an attractive place for business, being the only EU state with a land border with England. We have seen much UK business move to EU countries for distribution purposes into EU, it's not wild to consider Scotland becoming an attractive Single market territory to distribute EU produce into England.

From Scotland's point of view it would also likely mean they could not join Schengen, so a CTA would have to be in place between Scotland and England/Wales, just like the ROI one.

However that would put an EU based Scotland in a very powerful position should England/Wales rejoin after, as they could, in theory, insist upon Schengen adoption for England if they want to rejoin, effectively enabling the whole of the British Isles to become full Schengen members for the first time.

As for the nationalism angle, just like every country around the world, that will always be there, however there has been a significant change in the last few years. Before Brexit, leavers could use emotion as their main weapon against EU membership. That has now changed. now they have their Brexit they are now having to reason with facts, which aren't really in their favor. There will always be outliers who insist this is not a "proper brexit" and such to deflect the realities, but in my view this is a shrinking segment.

As ever it will be the media barons who ultimately control much of when things happen. At some point their financial backers will have milked brexit for all its worth to them, and could move on to the next thing. Watching the evolving EU narrative in the press will be interesting.

There have already been some isolated articles in Telegraph for example which have admitted failure, and looked at the wider picture. For me these are the signposts we need to watch.

It is to be expected that both Labour and Conservative will (and do) their best to block and oppose Scottish independence, so for this and other reasons it may not happen. The internicine rivalry within the Indy camp can no longer be kept hidden, that much is also clear - and may scupper their project.

However if it does happen I expect a fast track EU membership application and approval.

I expect that a Scottish pound would initially shadow the English pound, just as the Irish punt used to. Then alongside EU accession - likely a few years after - the adoption of the Euro, just as in RoI.

The border controls for goods would not now be a problem - that can be handled in much the same way as the GB/NI/RoI goods are handled. My personal opinion is that one of the sub-themes running through the NI goods negotiations - that all parties were cognisant of, but carefully none ever mentioned - is that this was the template for any future England/Scotland border.

And as you say to begin with the CTA solves the people problem.

Any Scottish independence will utterly emasculate England (and Wales) pretence to be a globally relevant major power of special significance. The defence reality is that the loss of Scottish airspace and seaspace, and the corresponding bases, would make the English nuclear deterrence very difficult to sustain. A forced move to Falmouth for the SSBNs (and all their associated personnel and infrastructure) would eviscerate the English defence budget. It is very difficult to see how England would be able to credibly hang on to the UN P5 seat in those circumstances.

---
On that pathway, quite when NI would flip, would be interesting to watch. Quite fast I think.
---

As you say the media barons pretty much call the shots in terms of delivering the jingoistic littleEnglander vote. Personally I am watching to see who grabs the Torygraph, and what in due course will happen to the Murdoch titles when Succession finally delivers. The USA is very clear that UK outside EU is a bad outcome ...... and one that only the raving libertarian far right and the Randian tax exiles really think is in the US's best interests. So at a certain time there will be a reckoning.

Just as you say the inconvenient facts are now having to be swallowed, sideways, by the Brexiters. They seem to be doing a lot of choking for some reason. Even the dumbest of Brexit voters has noticed that it has all gone wrong.

Hope meanwhile is now in the Rejoin camp. And so too increasingly are the votes. That is what Reality does.

 

[petit_bateau]

Who thinks this might get postponed (again) until after the looming General Election ?

Post-Brexit import checks risk further pushing up food prices – industry group

Traders will not be able to absorb estimated £10m extra cost on goods entering from EU, warns Fresh Produce Consortium

www.theguardian.com

 

[JupiterMan]

Who thinks this might get postponed (again) until after the looming General Election ?

Post-Brexit import checks risk further pushing up food prices – industry group

Traders will not be able to absorb estimated £10m extra cost on goods entering from EU, warns Fresh Produce Consortium

www.theguardian.com

With Sunak wanting to halve inflation by year end, you can pretty confident this "Brexit benefit" (!) will be pushed back further into the long grass.

If he misses his pledge, he has already said the country should hold him directly responsonsible, so in theory early general election. so yeah, wont happen.

 

[petit_bateau]

UK automotive scweams

Brexit ‘cliff edge’ poses threat to UK electric car production, warns industry chief

Head of SMMT raises concerns over tightening of trade rules from January on vehicles exported from UK to EU

www.theguardian.com

City breathes minor sigh of relief that not worse, "we do not expect any meaningful concessions from the EU other than those dictated by self-interest or systemic considerations..... since Britain's financial sector lost unfettered access to the EU market of over 400 million people due to Brexit, Brussels has made it clear the MoU will not be a forum for negotiating better access for UK financial services."

Britain and EU sign cooperation pact in financial services

Britain and the European Union signed a long-delayed post-Brexit cooperation pact in financial services on Tuesday, but the rapprochement is unlikely to restore EU access for the City of London anytime soon.

www.reuters.com