Brexit

[petit_bateau]

likely another Brexsh1t nail in the coffin of the UK automotive sector

Jaguar Land Rover will not build its own EV battery factory | Autocar

In a wide-reaching Reimagine update, JLR confirms battery supply plans for imminent electric cars

www.autocar.co.uk

see also backgrounder

Jaguar Land Rover owner ‘seeks £500m UK subsidy to build battery factory’

Report says Tata Motors approached Britain’s government as group weighs up site in Somerset or Spain

www.theguardian.com

(unless of course they can crowbar an even bigger subsidy out of the UK taxpayer by the election-desperate Cons)

 

[petit_bateau]

These Brexsh1t success stories just keep flooding in

“…there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides”
When David Davis, the Brexit secretary, stood in the House of Commons on 10 October 2016 and uttered those words it was pure unadulterated hubris, a belief that Britain was so special it would be able to leave the EU and there would be no downsides “at all”. Not a single one.

Three months later and still under the influence, he told his colleague Anna Soubry that he was going to negotiate “a comprehensive free trade agreement and a comprehensive customs agreement that will deliver the exact same benefits as we have”. It’s hard to know what – or indeed if – he was thinking at the time

And the score has just reached:
- 1,000 downsides
- 23 upsides (though I'd read them carefully before concluding they are all really upsides)

Brexit Downside Dossier reaches first 1,000 milestone

Entries in the famous Davis Downside Dossier hit the one thousand mark this week

yorkshirebylines.co.uk

 

[petit_bateau]

It is not often I like O'Leary but he does tell it straight

O’Leary said the UK’s longer term relationship with its closest trading partner depended “on what the British establishment or future UK governments do”. However, he said he believed that the UK would “in the next 10 to 15 years” strike a “trade deal with Europe, similar to Norway or Switzerland”.

“I think they will pay into a European budget, I think they will have no choice,”..... O’Leary described the British labour market as “broken”, saying that leaving the EU had forced Ryanair to hire European and non-European workers on what he called “ludicrously” expensive visas, costing £3,000 each.

“The problem we find dealing with the [UK] government is there’s an obsession in most departments to find excuses that show where Brexit benefits,” O’Leary said. “Duty free is back on flights to and from Europe, that’s about the only benefit.”

UK will sign deal paying in to EU budget within 15 years, says Ryanair boss

Michael O’Leary says Brexit is ‘unbelievably messy’ and a ‘net negative’ on the British economy

www.theguardian.com

 

[JupiterMan]

It is not often I like O'Leary but he does tell it straight

O’Leary said the UK’s longer term relationship with its closest trading partner depended “on what the British establishment or future UK governments do”. However, he said he believed that the UK would “in the next 10 to 15 years” strike a “trade deal with Europe, similar to Norway or Switzerland”.

“I think they will pay into a European budget, I think they will have no choice,”..... O’Leary described the British labour market as “broken”, saying that leaving the EU had forced Ryanair to hire European and non-European workers on what he called “ludicrously” expensive visas, costing £3,000 each.

“The problem we find dealing with the [UK] government is there’s an obsession in most departments to find excuses that show where Brexit benefits,” O’Leary said. “Duty free is back on flights to and from Europe, that’s about the only benefit.”

UK will sign deal paying in to EU budget within 15 years, says Ryanair boss

Michael O’Leary says Brexit is ‘unbelievably messy’ and a ‘net negative’ on the British economy

www.theguardian.com

reminds me of that saying "its the economy, stupid". Overtime the UK political course will inevitably trend back from the current nonsense, towards improving the economy.

And at that point, the only game in town is closer alignment with EU. Its just a question of how close, and how soon.

Think O'Leary will be proved right on this.

 

[Buckminster]

Good news towards getting on with life:
Bonfire of EU laws watered down to just 800 after meeting of Brexit MPs

 

[EVNow]

Overtime the UK political course will inevitably trend back from the current nonsense, towards improving the economy.

I'm not so sure. There is an undercurrent of "lets burn everything to the ground" feeling running in both UK & US politics. We may be aghast at the idea of US defaulting, for eg., but a certain section of the population absolutely loves it. They control one of the major parties. In UK the party controls the government, in US the party has effective veto power.

 

[JupiterMan]

I'm not so sure. There is an undercurrent of "lets burn everything to the ground" feeling running in both UK & US politics. We may be aghast at the idea of US defaulting, for eg., but a certain section of the population absolutely loves it. They control one of the major parties. In UK the party controls the government, in US the party has effective veto power.

there's likely a tipping point when people switch from ideology back to reality.

Its very easy to be ideological about things that have not been implemented yet and are denied by your echo chamber, such as during the referendum campaign in 2016. But now Brexit is here its increasingly difficult to swim against that tide, especially when it hurts your pocket or your prospects. Although diehards will remain.

Unless there is demonstrably something big that happens that is clearly a benefit of brexit (but we're still waiting for that of course) things will, in my view, revert over time.

And just as brexiters (or UKIP as they were) had an easy time blaming everything on EU membership since the 1970's it will be very easy for blame to be shifted to Brexit hereon in (whether warranted or not). Brexit will increasingly become "the establishment" that many will fight against.

 

[petit_bateau]

Useful

Book review: Pain, exile and progress

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This week in Brexitland, May 11, 2023

Would a hung parliament mean a better chance to reverse Brexit? This week, the ridiculousness of the current state of the British political media was laid bare. A Labour Party that has had a consistent lead in the national polls over the Tories, one this week putting them 19 points up, as well...

nicktyrone.substack.com

Delusional

Jaguar Land Rover boss says car plants in UK are not under threat

Comments come as carmaker talks with Spain and UK governments over where to build new car battery gigafactory

www.theguardian.com

 

[Buckminster]

Useful

Book review: Pain, exile and progress

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This week in Brexitland, May 11, 2023

Would a hung parliament mean a better chance to reverse Brexit? This week, the ridiculousness of the current state of the British political media was laid bare. A Labour Party that has had a consistent lead in the national polls over the Tories, one this week putting them 19 points up, as well...

nicktyrone.substack.com

Delusional

Jaguar Land Rover boss says car plants in UK are not under threat

Comments come as carmaker talks with Spain and UK governments over where to build new car battery gigafactory

www.theguardian.com

Tories won't be offering single market anytime soon. Rishi will be sure to tell voters to vote tory to avoid Lib Dem and SNP pulling Labour strings. Lib Dems would only form a joint government if there was a referendum etc. Labour majority is still the most likely at this stage.

 

[EVNow]

And just as brexiters (or UKIP as they were) had an easy time blaming everything on EU membership since the 1970's it will be very easy for blame to be shifted to Brexit hereon in (whether warranted or not). Brexit will increasingly become "the establishment" that many will fight against.

Funny you say that ... the fascist government in India blames everything on Mughuls (who ruled 300 years back) or the first PM - Nehru who died 60 years back. Fascists just need a scape goat, doesn't have to make sense. Sometimes the fascists have to be thoroughly and utterly defeated before they wake up to reality.

 

[Buckminster]

Although I'm an "American" who is only partly Scots-Irish-English via DNA (with a personal proclivity
for single-malt whisky [oops, sans 'e' in whisky, gave that away]), the absolutely most amazing,
jaw-dropping, high-speed "what is the UK?" explainer video remains:

by CGP Grey. It is nonpareil in its explanatory power of the British Isles and beyond, clocking
in at only 5 minutes, less time than for most any FSDb video, in either right- or left-hand drive form.

 

[petit_bateau]

Interesting to watch the manoeuvring

Now Brexit brings a bitter Tory reckoning at the polls | William Keegan

The Conservatives have much to be ashamed of after 13 years. But the surge in Lib Dem support shows Europe still matters

www.theguardian.com

Lib Dems will not be sucked into formal Labour pact, says Vince Cable

The former leader of the Liberal Democrats does not believe party members have any appetite to repeat the experience of the Tory coalition

www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson’s disciples gathered to sing the old hymns. But are they a real threat to Sunak?

Familiar faces on the right met in Bournemouth to pour scorn on the government. And they can certainly make the PM’s life harder

www.theguardian.com

 

[Buckminster]

Interesting to watch the manoeuvring

Now Brexit brings a bitter Tory reckoning at the polls | William Keegan

The Conservatives have much to be ashamed of after 13 years. But the surge in Lib Dem support shows Europe still matters

www.theguardian.com

Lib Dems will not be sucked into formal Labour pact, says Vince Cable

The former leader of the Liberal Democrats does not believe party members have any appetite to repeat the experience of the Tory coalition

www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson’s disciples gathered to sing the old hymns. But are they a real threat to Sunak?

Familiar faces on the right met in Bournemouth to pour scorn on the government. And they can certainly make the PM’s life harder

www.theguardian.com

It was difficult to believe that Labour wouldn't get a majority a year ago. Even with Tories losing out in the local elections, it somehow seems possible for Libs, Labour and Tories to be on equal terms now if Libs steal more from Labour on Brexit. Lib Dem manifesto could be - we will form a coalition only if a referendum is offered. Simple but effective.

 

[petit_bateau]

It was difficult to believe that Labour wouldn't get a majority a year ago. Even with Tories losing out in the local elections, it somehow seems possible for Libs, Labour and Tories to be on equal terms now if Libs steal more from Labour on Brexit. Lib Dem manifesto could be - we will form a coalition only if a referendum is offered. Simple but effective.

Libs say electoral reform #1 priority
Labour says negat to electoral reform
SNP wild card given unfolding events

 

[petit_bateau]

As predicted before the Brexshit referendum ........

Vauxhall-maker warns Brexit may force it to close UK factory

Vauxhall-maker Stellantis is calling on the government to renegotiate some Brexit rules or risk losing electric

www.bbc.com

Stellantis tells UK to change Brexit deal or see car plants close

British car plants will close with the loss of thousands of jobs unless the Brexit deal is swiftly renegotiated, Stellantis has warned, as Ford added its voice to the latest warning from the auto industry since Britain left the European Union.

www.reuters.com

Hunt says government to open immigration for key sectors, but only in ‘short term’ – as it happened

Jeremy Hunt says the government can open borders for care homes and construction workers that are facing worker shortages

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Getting even blunter .....

Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal

Carmakers call on Britain to change rules on batteries that they say threaten electric vehicle production

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Oh dear, Brexshit really has landed, exactly as predicted ......... I can't see any reason why the EU might want to do any renegotiating. So my guess is the UK will try to show a bit of leg on th edefence front and wiffle about unity and Ukraine and stuff.

Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal

Carmakers call on Britain to change rules on batteries that they say threaten electric vehicle production

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

These may interest folk re OEM manouevres and their costs. (and the consequences of Brexshit) ..... and of course it remains to be seen whether £500m will be enough to pull JLR's battery plant to the site near Bristol/Somerset that Tesla rejected

Jaguar Land Rover owner offered £500m in subsidies to build battery plant in UK

Incentive from Jeremy Hunt comes only days after three carmakers issued Brexit rules warning

www.theguardian.com

‘We’re going all in’: how France raced ahead of UK on electric car batteries

State subsidies and industry backing pull in foreign investment as country creates ‘Battery Valley’

www.theguardian.com

Brexit blame game erupts again: how leaving EU came back to bite Tories

Carmakers’ criticisms and migration figures add to pressure on Rishi Sunak, who is not trusted by leavers

www.theguardian.com

oh, and this is as always helpful

Brexit has failed, but there’s no solution in prospect

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

.... remember "FCUK Brexsh1t and REJOIN"

 

[Buckminster]

Paywall:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
Nice title, article doesn't say much more. Certainly doesn't suggest whether we can find a non Euro return package etc.

 

[Buckminster]

The chart that will be known as "Starmer's trap"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663107939572277249