Buy now or wait?

[Arpe]

Tesla is at a great pricing point at the moment, after changing the prices like every 7. day for a few months, it has now been a while since the last change.

Base prices of:
39,500$
49,500$
59,500$ is beautifully balanced, the only reason for Tesla to change prices is demand.

I think they will stick to these prices for a long time and instead upgrade the options along the way: OEM towing, automatic trunk, air suspension etc...

I my view Tesla also have to be careful not lowering the prices too much if they would still like to be considered a luxury car company.

In conclusion, buy now! This is the best car you will ever have. Enjoy!

 

[J X 3]

Tax credit gets a cut at end of quarter and they might offset that in Q3 to some extent but NOT for the 35k$ model.

They are heading towards a demand disaster in the second half , the delayed base model, the delayed international orders, the price changes have killed reservations and only less 200k turned into orders. In Q3 they are out of reservations and organic demand is low, the problem is that Tesla screwed up the production line in Fremont and they are stuck with higher depreciation and wages than planned so margins are low, they can't afford to do much about prices and survive. In Q2 they will have very low margins for Model 3 and there is a long way to 25-30% margins even if they can sell all they make. They could adjust prices for some versions to try to improve mix or cut prices for FSD to maximize revenue but we are not gonna see drastic price cuts across the board for M3 for years at least.

There is ample room for leases to get better, prices are still very high right now but Tesla is shy about reasonable prices there as it has a negative impact on cash flow and they are short on cash. It would be better than to generate massive losses every quarter because of lack of demand but we'll see what they do , they are not always rational in their decisions.

Other car makers are too far behind to have anything competitive in the next couple of years.

In the long run, as batteries get cheaper, it makes no sense to reduce prices, it is much better to improve charging rates and range as that's what limits the addressable market and there is a long way to go before they are sufficient for everybody.

PS: Since someone is bound to get angry about the lack of demand claim, look at delivery dates across the globe, they got no backlog, order now and by June it's delivered. Reservations are gone and it's hard to assess organic demand but right now it's obviously well bellow production.

 

[Thp3]

Great question!

Our current situation- we bought a brand new Prius last September, putting 5k down. If we sell it now and clear the finance, we'll net out positive about 1k, so we'll have lost 4k in about 8 months.
...
We're moving home in September, currently we're in rented accommodation, so I can charge using 110v, but can't install a charger. I get 3 hours level 2 free charging at work each day. That would save us a bit, but Prius only costs on average $40 per month. I have another year and a half of free Toyota servicing too, so no maintenance costs.

Also, we're considering buying a house, so it probably makes sense to do that before committing to financing a Model 3. If we buy, we'll probably go with SR+. It will be our only car, and we occasionally (4-5 times a year) do long drives of > 500 miles.

Do not buy the Model 3 until after you’ve locked in a mortgage for a house. Even then, it would be wise to see what the house needs the first month or two of living there. Your mortgage could vary by 0.5% depending on your credit score. Buying a new car on a new loan will reduce your credit score. It might not affect your mortgage rate, but if it did, you’d pay thousands of dollars more that you’d need to without the credit score hit.

Yes, a Model 3 is great, but low stress life in a house is better both short and long term.

 

[eustachio]

We're discussing options and we think we will defer buying a house for a year, overpriced at the moment!

So now we just need to decide between

• LR AWD or RWD (LR as we take several long road trips a year)
• Tesla loan or bank loan. We can get 3.35% from bank.
• Buy right now, or wait till quarter end for possible deals on inventory at local Tesla dealer

Opinions welcome on all the above!

 

[ammulder]

My vote would be AWD (acceleration), bank loan (tesla builds great cars...), and wait for end of quarter if you’re flexible on config (colors, wheels, HW3, etc.) or buy now if you’re not or if you’re too impatient. From early April, I couldn’t wait on end of June.

 

[dmurphy]

We're discussing options and we think we will defer buying a house for a year, overpriced at the moment!

So now we just need to decide between

• LR AWD or RWD (LR as we take several long road trips a year)
• Tesla loan or bank loan. We can get 3.35% from bank.
• Buy right now, or wait till quarter end for possible deals on inventory at local Tesla dealer

Opinions welcome on all the above!

My take; AWD, bank loan, buy now. If you like it, buy it.

Make sure you check the Tesla Loan Spreadsheet here on the forum. I used a local credit union - Campbell EFCU - 60mos @ 2.5%.

Go for it! You’ll love it. Wish I had done it sooner.

 

[eustachio]

Why AWD?

 

[dmurphy]

Why AWD?

Again, my $0.02: better acceleration, and better handling in poor weather. Your profile says you’re in CA - not as much of a concern as here on the east coast, but if you go up into the mountains or, say, out to Tahoe - you’d appreciate it.

If that’s not a concern, then RWD on!

 

[UnderCharged]

I myself am waiting for first quarter next year. I have some financial obligations that are more important then a 60k payment. on top of that my freakin basement flooded so my foundation needs to be dug up. home ownership sometimes has its disadvantages.

 

[dmurphy]

I myself am waiting for first quarter next year. I have some financial obligations that are more important then a 60k payment. on top of that my freakin basement flooded so my foundation needs to be dug up. home ownership sometimes has its disadvantages.

So sorry to hear. Much more important to have a solid roof and floor over and under your feet than a shiny new car.

(Been there! Basement flooded due to a poorly installed sump pump in hurricane Irene a few years back. New roof 2 years ago - that was $30k I didn’t like spending!)

Thankfully the home’s stable for now - and my lease was up - so the Model 3 was in the cards this year.

 

[ammulder]

New roof 2 years ago - that was $30k I didn’t like spending!

Ow, that does hurt; you just missed a solar roof!

 

[eustachio]

If that’s not a concern, then RWD on!

Is LR still being built, or is it just from existing inventory?

 

[dmurphy]

Ow, that does hurt; you just missed a solar roof!

Yup. We had to rebuild the whole danged thing. Had broken and bowed rafters, undersized decking (3/8” if you can believe it!), and zero ventilation. Replaced it all - new rafters, 3/4” decking, ice & water shield, added soffit vents every 2 feet all the way around, a complete ridge vent system, “lifetime” architectural shingles, new crickets at the chimneys and more nonsense I can’t remember right now. This was one of those “I’m only doing this project once!” kind of jobs ....

Now, I’d love some Tesla solar shingles but traditional panels? A non-starter. I’m not putting any holes in this roof. Maybe irrational but we went through too much to introduce the possibility of a leak!

 

[dmurphy]

Is LR still being built, or is it just from existing inventory?

I believe LR RWD is still being built - just have to ask for it since it’s “off menu” ... go into a store or call one, and you can order that way.

 

[Jerick]

Buy it now. If the price decreases after your purchase, you can always create a new thread to complain about it.

 

[eustachio]

I believe LR RWD is still being built - just have to ask for it since it’s “off menu” ... go into a store or call one, and you can order that way.

Cheers, I realized it was off menu, just wasn't sure if being built still or selling existing inventory. Would prefer to get most recent build.

 

[Brando]

Yup. We had to rebuild the whole danged thing. Had broken and bowed rafters, undersized decking (3/8” if you can believe it!), and zero ventilation. Replaced it all - new rafters, 3/4” decking, ice & water shield, added soffit vents every 2 feet all the way around, a complete ridge vent system, “lifetime” architectural shingles, new crickets at the chimneys and more nonsense I can’t remember right now. This was one of those “I’m only doing this project once!” kind of jobs ....

Now, I’d love some Tesla solar shingles but traditional panels? A non-starter. I’m not putting any holes in this roof. Maybe irrational but we went through too much to introduce the possibility of a leak!

Consider putting panels on the "ground" slightly elevated and you can garden under the panels.
Carport with solar panel roof over the "driveway".
You get the basic idea. Only you can decide if it looks OK
PowerWall IF the low cost nightly rate can be stored to off set daily high cost rate from utility. very local rates & regs apply to IF it can help.

Sounds like you take pride in your home - more than just a house to you.

good luck, enjoy.

 

[dmurphy]

Consider putting panels on the "ground" slightly elevated and you can garden under the panels.
Carport with solar panel roof over the "driveway".
You get the basic idea. Only you can decide if it looks OK
PowerWall IF the low cost nightly rate can be stored to off set daily high cost rate from utility. very local rates & regs apply to IF it can help.

Sounds like you take pride in your home - more than just a house to you.

good luck, enjoy.

Thank you - we do; trying to do things right for the long haul vs. the "good enough for now" mentality ...

Unfortunately we don't really have the room for non-roof panels; it's a ranch-style home (not large at all; about 2100sqft or so) on a 1/3 acre lot. A bit of a setback from the street so can't put anything in the front, and the pool & patio take up the majority of the backyard. Just nowhere to go. :-(

The driveway - that'd be the only option but it would really stick out in this neighborhood, and likely wouldn't pass zoning board approvals. They'd be concerned about snow/wind load, impermeable coverage, all kinds of silliness.

A PowerWall would be great - we don't have TOU rates (about $0.14/kWh around the clock) but it would eliminate the need for a generator in outage situations. Definitely something to consider.

I'm sure we'll add solar panels (or, fingers crossed, some Tesla solar shingles!) at some point - just need to let the roof age a bit before I start poking at it...

edit: the photo is pre-Model 3.. so apologies about having two gas burners in the driveway. We're down to 1 now.

 

[rafacq]

You can say that again! I’ve always drove by Yermo California on my way to Las Vegas and back, they have the coolest store there called Eddies World. With many Super chargers. It’s a nice stop, even tour busses stop there..

You know, even with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt I don’t care to leave the house, since owning this car I am making excuses to go anywhere... even to go research Supercharger stations.. been to Rancho Cucamonga twice.. who would of known.

The ride is amazing and I spend time keeping it clean means I’m more active. Got my XM radio with the car kit in with 3 month free.. another fun project.

So stop with the being on the fence, go out and get one ... I’m very happy with my ride so glad to own one.
Fred

Yermo ROCKS!

 

[rafacq]

Been back and forth on this in my head...with more ev competition, battery prices getting cheaper, I know if I wait the price of the M3 will come down. And I don't need to buy right now.

What I might want is another thing...

Anyone care to offer words of wisdom?

After lots of going back and forth, I decided to buy used. Found a 2015 S85D with 12,004 miles, clean CarFax, one owner (Tesla Lease), great color, and exactly all the options I wanted! Great price, free Supercharging, 270 mile range, no battery degradation, simply LOVE IT!