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California, The Land That Time Forgot

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,756
4,103
Southern California
The key takeaway — "Until then, we can expect to keep seeing the end of quarter rushes to meet its sales and delivery projections in order to retain confidence from the company's investors."

It's all about the stock price. The company needs capital to expand, it needs the confidence of investors to keep getting capital. Everything else is #2.

The money in question is a $1875 credit on a ~$45k out the door SR+, so about 4% of the purchase price for someone who can afford to spend that much on a car.

I would expect the Q1, Q2, and Q3 rushes to be considerably smaller than the Q4. So there is something potential buyers can do to avoid the rush.

But here’s the big difference I see between last year and this year:

The frenzy from last night to get your car was based on the government’s decision to end a tax credit. Tesla simply benefited from it because it aligned with their goals to maximize end of quarter sales.

But from now on, while Tesla still wants to sell as many cars as they can within a given quarter, there is no incentive on the customer’s side to close the transaction by any given date. So there will be more bargaining power on the side of the customer given that it no longer matters to the customer what day you buy the car. It ONLY matters to Tesla.
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,318
18,034
USA
But here’s the big difference I see between last year and this year:

The frenzy from last night to get your car was based on the government’s decision to end a tax credit. Tesla simply benefited from it because it aligned with their goals to maximize end of quarter sales.

But from now on, while Tesla still wants to sell as many cars as they can within a given quarter, there is no incentive on the customer’s side to close the transaction by any given date. So there will be more bargaining power on the side of the customer given that it no longer matters to the customer what day you buy the car. It ONLY matters to Tesla.

Free premium lifetime connectivity if you take delivery before 3/31/2020
Free 3 years of supercharging if you take delivery 6/30/2020

While Tesla has to give something, it doesn't have to be that much to engineer demand levers as necessary.
 
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dandrewk

Supporting Member
Jun 25, 2019
1,221
857
Marin County, CA
but honestly for anyone who took delivery: no paperwork? Not even due bill?

That's not unusual. I took delivery last month, and all paperwork I signed was sent via email. I can't remember if they asked if I wanted hard copy.

It's a good thing. No reason at all to waste paper. I have everything I need stored in Evernote and can access it without having to dig through a file cabinet.
 
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ucmndd

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2016
6,413
11,962
California
But here’s the big difference I see between last year and this year:

The frenzy from last night to get your car was based on the government’s decision to end a tax credit. Tesla simply benefited from it because it aligned with their goals to maximize end of quarter sales.

But from now on, while Tesla still wants to sell as many cars as they can within a given quarter, there is no incentive on the customer’s side to close the transaction by any given date. So there will be more bargaining power on the side of the customer given that it no longer matters to the customer what day you buy the car. It ONLY matters to Tesla.
Tesla has had some manner of EoQ incentive nearly every quarter for like 3 years now. When I bought in December 2016 it was the very first “end of free supercharging” (big time hindsight LOL on that one).

The tax credit phaseout has served on numerous occasions, but the gaps have been filled with lots of other gimmicks - more free supercharging, crazy lease deals, “inventory discounts”, free options, etc. I don’t see any reason why this won’t continue as necessary.

Q1 and Q2 this year will probably be a good time to buy as they pulled a lot of demand forward to last quarter and don’t seem to have any major updates planned to drum up new business in the US. I suspect there will be some good end of quarter unpublished incentives like we’ve seen recently - free paint or wheels, some sort of premium connectivity promo, etc.

Once Q3 hits we should see Model Y ramping up which will start a whole new wave of demand. S/X Plaid in ~Q4 - lather, rinse, repeat...
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,756
4,103
Southern California
Tesla has had some manner of EoQ incentive nearly every quarter for like 3 years now. When I bought in December 2016 it was the very first “end of free supercharging” (big time hindsight LOL on that one).

The tax credit phaseout has served on numerous occasions, but the gaps have been filled with lots of other gimmicks - more free supercharging, crazy lease deals, “inventory discounts”, free options, etc. I don’t see any reason why this won’t continue as necessary.

Q1 and Q2 this year will probably be a good time to buy as they pulled a lot of demand forward to last quarter and don’t seem to have any major updates planned to drum up new business in the US. I suspect there will be some good end of quarter unpublished incentives like we’ve seen recently - free paint or wheels, some sort of premium connectivity promo, etc.

Once Q3 hits we should see Model Y ramping up which will start a whole new wave of demand. S/X Plaid in ~Q4 - lather, rinse, repeat...

Agreed. It’s the pattern I find interesting. In every quarter where a tax credit was about to be reduced, that became the incentive. In the quarters where the tax credit was remaining in place for an additional quarter, Tesla was forced to offer other incentives to stimulate demand.

So now we have zero tax credits left. Historically that means Tesla incentives. But demand is unusually high worldwide. So it remains to be seen whether any incentives will be coming this quarter. We can keep an eye on existing inventory levels to have some guess as to what may be coming though.
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,756
4,103
Southern California
They can build 1,000 SR+ cars in a day. That is probably enough to fulfill all remaining US backlog. And that’s before factoring any existing reservation holders that may cancel since they lost out on the tax credit.
 
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gelabela

Member
Dec 3, 2019
53
55
Bay Area
I’m also home! The whole process took about 2.5 hours. The paperwork part only took 30 mins but my car was only charged 50%. I swung by a supercharger in front of the showroom. Unfortunately no sign of Elon but everyone said he was there walking around. They had the cutest “volunteer” there who is a current owner volunteering her time to talk about how awesome Tesla is. I wonder what they offer these current owners?! My car was pretty perfect too. My husband owns auto body shops and he confirmed it looked great with the exception of the smallest dent on my hood near the T. It’s due to someone not shutting the hood with two hands. Very hard to see unless you really try. It wouldn’t even show up in pics. The rep said Tesla will take care of it for us. The only other things I found frustrating was that my app won’t link yet. They said to wait until after 8 because the rush that’s happening. So have to use my key card. My screen also froze while I was charging. After a manual reset it worked fine again.

Now the challenge for me is to get use to all the controls ... currently looking at how I can connect Waze

To those still waiting... I hope Tesla does something to make it up to you! Good luck!

Happy New Year's everyone! I just wanted to provide a follow up to what I posted. Upon closer inspection, there are flaws with my car. The driver side door will not close all the way unless you slam it. My husband said they need to adjust the hinge/catch? He also said he can notice areas where the clear coat doesn't cover end to end. It is barely noticeable with the naked eye but further down the road (like years later) it will begin to have issues. Since my car is on a 3 year lease it may not be a big deal for me but for those of you that are keeping your cars for longer you should check that you don't have the same issue. I also think I am missing the phone usb cables. Did yours come with it?

Overall, I'm enjoying getting to know my car. I realized the specialist that presented my car barely helped us. He was friendly but I had to learn almost everything on my own (thank goodness for YouTube)! For those of you that are driving an EV for the first time, highly recommend checking out beginner's tips videos.
 

dandrewk

Supporting Member
Jun 25, 2019
1,221
857
Marin County, CA
Happy New Year's everyone! I just wanted to provide a follow up to what I posted. Upon closer inspection, there are flaws with my car. The driver side door will not close all the way unless you slam it. My husband said they need to adjust the hinge/catch?

That often happens with new cars. The seals are new and need to be broken in. It was the same thing with mine. After a few days it’s much better.
 
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laketica

Member
Nov 18, 2019
76
49
San Diego, California
That often happens with new cars. The seals are new and need to be broken in. It was the same thing with mine. After a few days it’s much better.

same as you and @gelabela my driver door too! Hope it's true it gets better. I mean I can tell my driver door is not sitting totally flat with its neighboring panels compared to the other side of the car though. I'll see... hafta make a service appt anyway...
 

jboy210

Supporting Member
Dec 2, 2016
4,970
3,046
Northern California
Free premium lifetime connectivity if you take delivery before 3/31/2020
Free 3 years of supercharging if you take delivery 6/30/2020

While Tesla has to give something, it doesn't have to be that much to engineer demand levers as necessary.
Free Supercharging for "Life" has always been a bone they throw out. They did it for S and X again this quarter.

Of course the definition of "Life" has changed over the years. Since 2018 it means as long as the original purchaser owns the car. It does not transfer on lease termination, or sale of the vehicle.
 
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ayb11

Member
Dec 28, 2019
22
30
Santa Clarita
So in addition to getting my VIN and MVPA I now know my car was built and exited the factory on 31st Dec. I guess if I just randomly flew to the factory for the NYE event and showed up, there was a chance I could’ve gotten a car. Of course no one at Burbank or at Tesla actually has their phone ringer on. Anyone else that got pushed to Jan see any progress on their cars?
 

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