Canada is being flooded with invites

[McRat]

BWAHAHA

Max religious M3 optimism:
No MS/X owners will order cars.
Canada was rumor. No international.
AWD will be delayed to 2019.
A full 50% were international orders which will not be serviced at all.
Full retention.
Full conversion.
Full 20,000 a month production immediately.

3 months from today to reach into the May-July queue, and 1 month delivery.
This does not account for cars that ordered but not manufactured yet, which is about 1 month.

Or, offer your own math how 65,000 cars will be made when we are at 2,500 a month production last month. These have to be delivered before you get yours. Nor do you know your actual queue position yet.

It's easy to call BS. Can you debate with your own theory though? "I will go 200mph" - "No you won't" - "Here's the design and powertrain, what speed do you think." - "I don't know, but not 200."

You might as well just say: "You are wrong" and save it that. Don't explain. Don't offer alternatives. Take the easy road. OF COURSE I'M WRONG, virtually all estimates have an error window no matter how much data you have. We are working with little data, but we have facts.

Few non-legacy line-waiters have received a car, if any, as of today. Unless they cut line.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It's easy to call BS.

...when you assert obvious nonsense, then try pretend it's something it's not.

Can you debate with your own theory though?.... Don't explain. Don't offer alternatives.

Do you even read my posts?

Few non-legacy line-waiters have received a car, if any, as of today.

That's hardly rationale to whip up a fanciful scenario, spitting in the face of evidence at hand, where that continues to be the case.

 

[McRat]

...when you assert obvious nonsense, then try pretend it's something it's not.





Do you even read my posts?



That's hardly rationale whip up a fanciful scenario, spitting in the face of evidence at hand, where that continues to be the case.

I read your posts. You quote a spreadsheet that relies on folk who go on the internet to talk about cars. As a forum owner for about 16 years, I can tell you what I find out in the field at events or locations is not 1:1 with internet enthusiasts. The rest of the posts are either sarcasm or 'nope' posts.

When do you think May-July non-MS/X online reservations will be delivered. This covers roughly 276,000 reservations that Elon Musk stated were in the queue 36 hrs after ordering began. And how did you estimate it?

 

[ℬête Noire]

I read your posts. You quote a spreadsheet that relies on folk who go on the internet to talk about cars. As a forum owner for about 16 years, I can tell you what I find out in the field at events or locations is not 1:1 with internet enthusiasts. The rest of the posts are either sarcasm or 'nope' posts.

"Your posts are only composed of bringing up the pieces of the best evidence we've got for making estimates, using some reasoning to extrapolate from that, and calling out the posterior-extracted numbers and assertions that I have dribbled out of my slack-jawed maw."

LOL

When do you think May-July non-MS/X online reservations will be delivered. This covers roughly 276,000 reservations that Elon Musk stated were in the queue 36 hrs after ordering began. And how did you estimate it?

Have you seen this? Model 3 Delivery Estimator It's shown itself a decent predictor, though of course can only be as good as Tesla is at ramping production (but better than Tesla at hitting their own production targets).

Current iteration includes adjustments in anticipation of aggressive shift to Canadian deliveries (both LR and LR-D), as it anticipated that happening soon weeks ago when the reports of "mid-2018" showing up for Canadian reservations appeared. It's using production assumption of a somewhat muted version of Tesla's official ramp targets. I expect that is still modestly optimistic for production, we'll see how Tesla does, but is ballpark and ok starting point for the fog of the future.

EDIT: You did realize that Tesla changed the Canadian Estimator dates when the last US Estimator changes were made, right? But it didn't occur to you that this suggests the plan to shift to Canadian deliveries was already factored into the last US Estimator adjustment?

P.S. You can follow through on links for discussion of the details. Be forewarned though, it's generally a rational, evidence-based discussion. Perhaps not your cup of tea.

 

[McRat]

"Your posts are only composed of bringing up the pieces of the best evidence we've got for making estimates, using some reasoning to extrapolate from that, and calling out the butt-extracted numbers and assertions I dribble out of my slack-jawed maw."

LOL



Have you seen this? Model 3 Delivery Estimator It's shown itself a decent predictor, though only be as good as Tesla ramping production (but better than Tesla at hitting their own production targets).

Current iteration includes adjustments in anticipation of aggressive shift to Canadian deliveries (both LR and LR-D), as it anticipated that happening soon weeks ago when the reports of "mid-2018" showing up for Canadian reservations appeared. It's using production assumption of a somewhat muted version of Tesla's official ramp targets. I expect that is still modestly optimistic for production, we'll see how Tesla does, but is ballpark and ok starting point for the fog of the future.

P.S. You can follow through on links for discussion of the details. Be forewarned though, it's kinda rational evidence based discussion. Perhaps not your cup of tea.

It says I will get my invite May 29. This aligns with Tesla's estimator perfectly with no further bumps. However, the Tesla estimator has been wrong twice so far.

We will revisit this after the quarterly. A bump would indicate the chart is off considerably.

 

[John Lamoureux]

It says I will get my invite May 29. This aligns with Tesla's estimator perfectly with no further bumps. However, the Tesla estimator has been wrong twice so far.

We will revisit this after the quarterly. A bump would indicate the chart is off considerably.

It says I should have received my invite on March 19th.

 

[McRat]

It says I should have received my invite on March 19th.

Line waiter?

What is the Tesla Estimator window for you?

 

[T34ME]

I'm a day one,non-owner, linestander, and reserved around noon only 40 miles from the factory in Fremont. I still haven't gotten the invite yet, but am actually rather encouraged by it.

Knock yourselves out, Canada! Congrats!

I like your attitude @shrspeedblade If anyone should feel slighted, you should. I think your patience will be rewarded by a car that is perfect from the git go!

 

[gaswalla]

for the folks dying to get their cars asap, isn't this Canada push going to open up a market for 3's to be sold by private parties from Canada to the US? same specs, and all: shouldn't be a problem for those truly desperate and not interested in the tax credit

 

[phigment]

for the folks dying to get their cars asap, isn't this Canada push going to open up a market for 3's to be sold by private parties from Canada to the US? same specs, and all: shouldn't be a problem for those truly desperate and not interested in the tax credit

Teslas can't be sold across Canada/US border.

 

[voip-ninja]

No idea. Certainly a sizeable amount. There would be 65,000 first 24hr reservationists if there were 50% refunds since there were 130k orders. Assuming 50% defer, that's 32,500 without invites going far more pessimistic than most folk believe.

There's a good article published today about TSLA stock price tanking (unfortunately it's behind a paywall), one of the observations was that apparently fewer than 30% of Model 3 reservation holders are actually executing on their orders. That's particularly scary considering that, to-date, most of the reservation holders have been existing Tesla owners who are delaying.

Now, there are legitimate reasons to delay such as "I want the $35,000 Model 3" but that take rate is still extremely low, especially considering the impending wind down of tax credits.

TSLA is in a very tough spot right now as they need another bond offer soon and I'm not sure if juggling production numbers around in order to maximize tax incentives is the smart play for them.

Time will tell.

 

[Bull.bell]

Just checked minutes ago. It still said "Mid 2018" for AWD. I'm now uncertain if I will ever have a chance to get the AWD+SR because of the June election. I may have to cancel it if PC scrap the $14k incentive when they get elected.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It says I should have received my invite on March 19th.

1) I'm not sure the underlying production number assumptions have been adjusted to actual for the drop due to Feb turn-arounds. That is relatively low-impact for me at this point, upcoming production rates will have a lot more impact. It will however have a fair amount of impact on your date, relatively speaking.
2) I know from discussions by Texas in-store, non-owners that it's not entirely chronological. Even within groups of people in the very same store. *shrug* They aren't yet to the end of in-store, non-owners, I haven't noticed any online, non-owners [in the US] get an invite yet.

 

[ℬête Noire]

There's a good article published today about TSLA stock price tanking (unfortunately it's behind a paywall), one of the observations was that apparently fewer than 30% of Model 3 reservation holders are actually executing on their orders. That's particularly scary considering that, to-date, most of the reservation holders have been existing Tesla owners who are delaying.

That's not a new claim (and it's not a particularly clearly solid based one, last I looked at it). Extremely unlikely that has much to do with the current stock issues.

What the existing customers are holding off for matters a lot. EDIT: Whether it's AWD/P, or just a different colour of seats, or they are holding out for the actual base SR, no PUP etc. matters. Of course in some ways existing customers that aren't looking to replace but rather for a 2nd car are more likely to select SR, unless they've got a really old S that they feel isn't giving the range they need.

Tesla stock is caught up is a very widespread tech stock hit, that seems to have been set off by Uber running over someone (a probable underlying bubble in the whole market, and now increasing odds of trade war with the assist). Tesla has had all reasonably foreseeable upside priced into it for a very long time and a very volatile stock because of that. With a CEO that occasionally warns that the stock price is getting ahead of itself/optimistic. Not surprising that it'd take a hit harder than most, and doubly so because of the AV connection.

 

[voip-ninja]

That's not a new claim (and it's not a particularly clear one, last I looked at it). Extremely unlikely that has much to do with the current stock issues.

What the existing customers are holding off for matters a lot, whether it's AWD/P or just a different color.

Tesla stock is caught up is a very widespread tech stock hit, that seems to have been set off by Uber running over someone. Tesla has had all reasonably foreseeable upside priced into it for a very long time and a very volatile stock because of that. With a CEO that occasionally warns that the stock price is getting ahead of itself/optimistic. Not surprising that it'd take a hit harder than most.

I don't think that is the entire explanation, but probably we should take this to a separate thread. TSLA is the most shorted stock on the NASDAQ if I remember correctly.

 

[John Lamoureux]

Line waiter?

What is the Tesla Estimator window for you?

Waited in line at the Natick, MA store, ~12:30pm ET.

Current window is Mar - May.

Many on other threads are also speculating that it has more to do with the readiness of your SC than your position in line.

 

[John Lamoureux]

1) I'm not sure the underlying production number assumptions have been adjusted to actual for the drop due to Feb turn-arounds. That is relatively low-impact for me at this point, upcoming production rates will have a lot more impact.
2) I know from discussions by Texas in-store, non-owners that it's not entirely chronological. Even within groups of people in the very same store. *shrug* They aren't yet to the end of in-store, non-owners, I haven't noticed any online, non-owners [in the US] get an invite yet.[/QUOTE

I recall seeing one online reservation holder get an invite, and of course that's only on this site. I'm sure if that did indeed occur there are others that got an invite that didn't post on TMC.

For now I've stopped my incessant F5's, as I'm waiting for quarter end. Don't know if there will be any more this week or if the floodgates will open next week. /hoping

 

[ℬête Noire]

I don't think that is the entire explanation, but probably we should take this to a separate thread. TSLA is the most shorted stock on the NASDAQ if I remember correctly.

Yeah, by a lot last I looked. Several billions in bets (inherently both ways), which buys a lot of FUD/propaganda "journalism" (both ways but it's more a short-side tactic because that's easier). I mean, we get blatant short-sell trolls on here regularly and a number of known actors have made themselves a multi-year mini-career out of Tesla FUD already.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Teslas can't be sold across Canada/US border.

There are ways but it's a lot tougher for a very new model car like this and hardly worth the hassle/cost/risk given there's an open, legal resale market with only modest mark-ups, even some straight-acrosses (because of the $7500 tax credit grease).

 

[voip-ninja]

Yeah, by a lot last I looked. Several billions in bets (inherently both ways), which buys a lot of FUD/propaganda "journalism" (both ways but it's more a short-side tactic because that's easier). I mean, we get blatant short-sell trolls on here regularly and a number of known actors have made themselves a multi-year mini-career out of Tesla FUD already.

There are fundamental problems with Teslas numbers that have nothing to do with how much anyone is shorting them. They are way off on targets and I suspect they are getting huge numbers of cancellations on M3 orders. You can only fudge around so much before eventually the market takes you to the wood shed.

Ford is far more undervalued than Tesla even though they built and delivered over 7 million cars last year, were profitable, and have a $12B emergency fund to weather the next financial downturn.