Canceling my reservation

[Grendal]

I remember when the Roadster was delayed and everyone was freaking out about it. Then the Model S came along and there were production delays there as well. It took about two years for Tesla to get up to full speed on production of the S. The Y came out and, of course, there were delays on getting it up to full production levels. The Model 3 has ten times the production of the Model S and there are delays. I would hope otherwise since I reserved on day 1 and am 100K on the reservation list since I couldn't get to a store. It's not a popular thing nowadays but I understand that patience is necessary to get the Model 3 that I want. So I'm waiting.

The S had a lot of dropouts in early 2013. I'm pretty sure that most of the people that dropped out in 2013 eventually bought a Model S.

IMO Tesla will get beyond this period as they have done in the past. I also expect that those canceling now will just get one later when the growth issues are over.

 

[voip-ninja]

A ridiculous number, eh? Should we implement a Grandmothers For Sale section here at TMC, then?

What hyperbole. Clearly intended to denigrate and dismiss other members' opinions. I'm certain you can do better.

Hyperbole or comedy take your pick.

I’m surprised by your serious tone and words about denigrating members considering the amount of vitriol slung daily in this and other threads towards those who choose to move on from their M3 preorder or even show mild criticism of Tesla.

 

[ohmman]

I’m surprised by your serious tone and words about denigrating members considering the amount of vitriol slung daily in this and other threads towards those who choose to move on from their M3 preorder or even show mild criticism of Tesla.

I also find that tremendously off-putting. FWIW, I may be canceling mine as well.

 

[Surfer]

I also find that tremendously off-putting. FWIW, I may be canceling mine as well.

Wow, I’m surprised to read that. Tesla needs a positive way forward. Another slight of hand stage routine or boring hat is not the answer. Just an honest and profitable if possible way forward. And no more dangerous beta features.

 

[ohmman]

Wow, I’m surprised to read that. Tesla needs a positive way forward. Another slight of hand stage routine or boring hat is not the answer. Just an honest and profitable if possible way forward. And no more dangerous beta features.

Nothing sinister for me. My S is just a great car that doesn’t warrant replacing. I wasn’t sure but every time I think about it, I realize the 3 offers nothing but a more compact size for me. AP isn’t an issue since our X is the road trip car. So a cancellation for me is just reconciling that with my desire to own Tesla’s mass produced car.

But we all have our own reasons.

 

[RayK]

Ray moves up one slot.

 

[TeeEmCee]

I also find that tremendously off-putting. FWIW, I may be canceling mine as well.

Sadly, the attitude you’re referring to played a not-insignificant role in my cancellation.

After having sat in a Model 3 at the local showroom, I was very disappointed in what I saw. I thought that, with all this blind cheerleading and chastizing of those who point out the obvious shortcomings, tesla continues to avoid the i.m.o. very necessary oh-crap moment where they have to get serious about building quality cars.

Alas, I think all signs point to that moment coming sooner rather than later, so maybe there’s hope.

 

[TeeEmCee]

IMO Tesla will get beyond this period as they have done in the past. I also expect that those canceling now will just get one later when the growth issues are over.

I’m definitely one of those.

I wonder though, at this point they’re only competing with themselves and are barely staying afloat. What’s business going to look like when there are 2-4 actual competitors on the market and buyers don't have to order something they have not tested or accept something that looks less than flawless. I reckon it will be tough.

 

[Reciprocity]

I’m definitely one of those.

I wonder though, at this point they’re only competing with themselves and are barely staying afloat. What’s business going to look like when there are 2-4 actual competitors on the market and buyers don't have to order something they have not tested or accept something that looks less than flawless. I reckon it will be tough.

Doing the impossible is hard. Cut them some slack. The pains are from growing at over 60% a year, year in and year out for 10 years. Good luck finding competition. Ipace and bolt are it now and very very limited in production and very costly for what your get. Let's see how their batteries hold up, though I think the ipace will be fine because it's apparently nmc 811 which allows more cycles then your typical NCA chemistry.

Competition for the next decade will suffer from one or more of the following deficiencies when compared to Tesla: more expensive in the same category, lower range for the money, smaller for the same money/range, less durable batteries, slower charging, much smaller charging network, worse charging in most situations, limited production/compliance only like ipace and bolt.. and on and on.

Competition is not coming. Most of the competition announced has comparable specs to a 2012 S60 and are coming or in the magical year of 2020. Most of the competition is targeting 10-20k units at most and have no clear plan on securing cost effective batteries. What's worse for the competition is that the more successful they are, the more harm they will do to their more profitable ice business. Which kills their motivation. Good luck waiting for your competitive car.

 

[daniel]

By the time there's any serious competition, Tesla will have resolved most of its QC issues. In the mean time, people should be made aware of the bad as well as the good so that only people who find the compromises worth it will buy the car. Some of the things I didn't like about my Model 3 have already been fixed in software, and my biggest complaint is said to have software fix on the way.

No car is for everyone. If you're not certain, don't buy the car. You can always buy it later if you change your mind. I think it is perfectly reasonable for some people to cancel their reservations, and a frank and open discussion of their reasons will help others to decide, and will help Tesla to improve.

 

[McRat]

Ray moves up one slot.

Naw, reading the classifieds. Somebody sold their reservation they had no intention of using. You are right back where you came from.

 

[Grendal]

I’m definitely one of those.

I wonder though, at this point they’re only competing with themselves and are barely staying afloat. What’s business going to look like when there are 2-4 actual competitors on the market and buyers don't have to order something they have not tested or accept something that looks less than flawless. I reckon it will be tough.

Batteries and battery factory. Competitors need to make enough batteries to fill these cars that will supposedly outsell Tesla. Unless they have their own battery gigafactory pumping out 20 to 30 GWh of batteries then it ain't gonna happen.

 

[seattlite2004]

Batteries and battery factory. Competitors need to make enough batteries to fill these cars that will supposedly outsell Tesla. Unless they have their own battery gigafactory pumping out 20 to 30 GWh of batteries then it ain't gonna happen.

Other car makers buy their batts from LG Chem. I think even Tesla bought some LG Chem packs for the original Roadster battery upgrade.

 

[nvx1977]

A manufacturer who's battery strategy is to buy from a supplier is likely making compliance EVs because the cost of those batteries will make the vehicle expensive. Which is fine if the manufacturer goes the Tesla route and starts by targeting the luxury segment. If they want to produce EVs in meaningful numbers, they will have to skip the middleman on the batteries.

 

[Grendal]

Other car makers buy their batts from LG Chem. I think even Tesla bought some LG Chem packs for the original Roadster battery upgrade.

They don't make that many batteries. Remember that the battery gigafactory doubles the entire worlds production of li-ion batteries. LG can get there but they have to make some significant strides to do it.

 

[u00mem9]

A manufacturer who's battery strategy is to buy from a supplier is likely making compliance EVs because the cost of those batteries will make the vehicle expensive. Which is fine if the manufacturer goes the Tesla route and starts by targeting the luxury segment. If they want to produce EVs in meaningful numbers, they will have to skip the middleman on the batteries.

Tesla had a plan to produce their own cells, but that plan went sideways and it’s all about Panasonic at this point. They are more vertically integrated at the pack assembly level than the other OEMs, but the myth of them making their own batteries because they own the pole-barn in NV is fake news.

 

[nvx1977]

Tesla had a plan to produce their own cells, but that plan went sideways and it’s all about Panasonic at this point. They are more vertically integrated at the pack assembly level than the other OEMs, but the myth of them making their own batteries because they own the pole-barn in NV is fake news.

I suppose the key difference is exclusivity as well as a facility that can produce batteries at volume.

 

[vinnie97]

I’m definitely one of those.

I wonder though, at this point they’re only competing with themselves and are barely staying afloat. What’s business going to look like when there are 2-4 actual competitors on the market and buyers don't have to order something they have not tested or accept something that looks less than flawless. I reckon it will be tough.

What competition, the more expensive Jaguar that can't go as far on a charge as the $50k Model 3? Vaporware is still vaporware.

 

[dsvick]

Can be found on Turo. Generally overpriced, but given the $45k commitment it’s probably worth the investment.

Not within 3 1/2 hours of Cleveland

 

[brkaus]

Not within 3 1/2 hours of Cleveland

Bummer. There are a few here now. Showed up in the last 3 weeks. Hopefully other places soon.