Cancelling my reservation

[N5329K]

I love you too.



To be honest, I don't care either way. But saying the price is subject to change in the future, pretty much gives license to raise it without warning or justification. Don't let it bother you so much, it's just my opinion. If Tesla cranks out 200,000 Model 3's at anywhere near the $35K price point, you'll get to say to yourself, "I knew that a**hole would be wrong." In the meantime, it's not looking like there's going to be a $35K Model 3 around anytime soon (meaning before 2019), and there really isn't any argument to that fact. Tesla has pretty much said so themselves. What happens after that is anyone's guess. This is mine: They won't build many, if any, at $35K. I'll check back in a year or so.

I know quite a few line-waiters. Some are true believers and would buy a more affordable Tesla no matter what. Quite a few were first-time EV buyers, often coming from an ICE hybrid, who saw this as their chance to leave gasoline behind forever, based on the promise of "the best $35,000 car you can buy": three high school teachers (physics, math and history), a lady who works at the local pharmacy, a guy who works in the backoffice of the Monterey Aquarium.
This group (what one Model S owner sadly described as "poor folks", though they are not) took Tesla's word about that $35k car. They did not overlook it when Tesla added, "and with tax credits your costs will be even lower."
Anyway, many (most?) of the true believers will spec their Model 3 up to get delivery sooner. And existing owners will have no qualms about configuring, affording, and getting the tax credit for their $50k mini Model S. But those first-timers are a different story, and I have spoken to a few who are disappointed, even pissed off about not getting the car they want, when they want it and for the final price they were encouraged to believe they would have to pay.
I reminded them that Tesla said they'd build a $35k car, but never promised a firm delivery date. I think that's a true statement. But it doesn't make them feel any better about EV's, or Tesla. That's also true. One described it as having paid a kilobuck to play Simon Says. Simon says you'll get a car. Simon didn't say when.
I think Tesla can't afford to build those $35k cars right now. But I also think that the sooner Tesla finds some way to fulfill its promises...both stated and implied, the better.
Robin

 

[JRP3]

If Tesla cranks out 200,000 Model 3's at anywhere near the $35K price point, you'll get to say to yourself, "I knew that a**hole would be wrong."

I'll be saying it long before that point, you previously said the $35K car won't ever happen. If they sell one car anywhere near the $35K price point you'll have been proven wrong.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I'll be saying it long before that point, you previously said the $35K car won't ever happen. If they sell one car anywhere near the $35K price point you'll have been proven wrong.

We've already been saying "you're wrong", because of his gibbering about the 40kWh Model S.

P.S. He's made clear he's unwilling or unmotivated to alter his path, so I decided to make the [easy] decision and pipe his noise into the digital void. *shrug*

 

[McRat]

Diesel trucks are not about HP. They're about torque. That 450hp engine probably makes close to 2000lb-ft of torque. "Underpowered for it's [sic] size" is a quite a bit misinformed.
...

3500lb of engine to produce 2000ftlb is not highly stressed. Neither is 910ftlb in 835lb of motor. The chamber pressures in little 4-banger diesels are higher than either one, and it's chamber pressure that breaks things. As are diesel pickup engines which will pass 2000ftlb easily if so desired. Ever ignite the aluminum in a piston? It just takes a lot of oxygen and a lot of pressure.

Underpowered is a Prius. But if you wanted Prius performance in a Class 8 truck, you'd need 3,125 HP and over 10,000ftlb.

And the possessive spelling quirks of American (my car does not have a boot, nor have I driven a lorry) can be less than logical.

"It's box is black".
"Its box is black."

Both are correct. English puts the period on the outside, American inside. Gomez describing where a member of the Addams Family lives gets an apostrophe.

Thats wye me were fired from Grammer Police. A cat lives nine lives, even red ones, or so I've read, but I should read more on the subject.

 

[daniel]

I see a lot of Porsche and higher end BMW's on the road not driving any faster than other common place cars.

... that has more to do with deficiencies in the driver than the inherent design of the car.

I do not drive my Roadster faster than other cars on the road. We have speed limits and I obey them. I do this to be a good citizen and because speed limits save lives, and I'd rather live a while longer if I can.

But while I don't drive faster than other drivers, I do get up to the speed limit more quickly.

Underpowered is a Prius.

I very strongly disagree! As much as I love the torque of my Roadster, the Prius has all the power anyone needs if you're not towing a heavy trailer. Nobody needs to get from zero to 60 mph more quickly than eleven seconds. My old '89 Civic was slower than that, and it was plenty powerful for a passenger car, and had no trouble towing a lightweight utility trailer.

Torque is fun. But the Prius and the Civic are not underpowered.

 

[McRat]

I do not drive my Roadster faster than other cars on the road. We have speed limits and I obey them. I do this to be a good citizen and because speed limits save lives, and I'd rather live a while longer if I can.

But while I don't drive faster than other drivers, I do get up to the speed limit more quickly.



I very strongly disagree! As much as I love the torque of my Roadster, the Prius has all the power anyone needs if you're not towing a heavy trailer. Nobody needs to get from zero to 60 mph more quickly than eleven seconds. My old '89 Civic was slower than that, and it was plenty powerful for a passenger car, and had no trouble towing a lightweight utility trailer.

Torque is fun. But the Prius and the Civic are not underpowered.

Nobody needs to get anywhere faster than walking. Remember the show Kung Fu? That.

 

[daniel]

Nobody needs to get anywhere faster than walking. Remember the show Kung Fu? That.

Not a TV watcher here, so, no, I don't know the show. There are very big advantages to being able to travel at 55 or 60 mph. There are few practical advantages to being able to get to 60 mph in four seconds instead of eleven. An argument could be made for a 100-mph or 200-mph or 1,000-mph transportation system. I'm glad we have commercial jets, because I enjoy visiting fun places and I'm glad I don't have to take a sailing ship to visit Maui. But a Prius has plenty of power for American roads and speed limits.

 

[ummgood]

Not a TV watcher here, so, no, I don't know the show. There are very big advantages to being able to travel at 55 or 60 mph. There are few practical advantages to being able to get to 60 mph in four seconds instead of eleven. An argument could be made for a 100-mph or 200-mph or 1,000-mph transportation system. I'm glad we have commercial jets, because I enjoy visiting fun places and I'm glad I don't have to take a sailing ship to visit Maui. But a Prius has plenty of power for American roads and speed limits.

I love acceleration but I will say that it is valuable to have a faster accel time when you are trying to switch lanes with faster flow in traffic or when merging with a very short on-ramp. I have some examples here in Austin where it is painful to merge onto the freeway in my truck and I wish it could accelerate faster than it can. I am guessing it is in the 11 second range.

 

[ABCTG]

I know quite a few line-waiters. Some are true believers and would buy a more affordable Tesla no matter what. Quite a few were first-time EV buyers, often coming from an ICE hybrid, who saw this as their chance to leave gasoline behind forever, based on the promise of "the best $35,000 car you can buy": three high school teachers (physics, math and history), a lady who works at the local pharmacy, a guy who works in the backoffice of the Monterey Aquarium.
This group (what one Model S owner sadly described as "poor folks", though they are not) took Tesla's word about that $35k car. They did not overlook it when Tesla added, "and with tax credits your costs will be even lower."
Anyway, many (most?) of the true believers will spec their Model 3 up to get delivery sooner. And existing owners will have no qualms about configuring, affording, and getting the tax credit for their $50k mini Model S. But those first-timers are a different story, and I have spoken to a few who are disappointed, even pissed off about not getting the car they want, when they want it and for the final price they were encouraged to believe they would have to pay.
I reminded them that Tesla said they'd build a $35k car, but never promised a firm delivery date. I think that's a true statement. But it doesn't make them feel any better about EV's, or Tesla. That's also true. One described it as having paid a kilobuck to play Simon Says. Simon says you'll get a car. Simon didn't say when.
I think Tesla can't afford to build those $35k cars right now. But I also think that the sooner Tesla finds some way to fulfill its promises...both stated and implied, the better.
Robin

Great post;



I am beginning to wonder, is Tesla going to be an auto manufacturer along the lines of BMW and Mercedes? They only make vehicles in the $50K+ range.
They have to cater to the high end buyers of the S and the X, who squawk with concerns such as 3 owners clogging up the Superchargers.

I've seen some of the attitudes of S and X owners towards the 3, and to me it doesn't feel conducive to Elon's goal of electrifying the global fleet.


Or will Tesla be more like GM or Toyota. Making vehicles across the spectrum?

I own TSLA stock and have a deposit on a 3, so will continue to wait and find out!

 

[ℬête Noire]

Great post;
I am beginning to wonder, is Tesla going to be an auto manufacturer along the lines of BMW and Mercedes? They only make vehicles in the $50K+ range.
...

Or will Tesla be more like GM or Toyota. Making vehicles across the spectrum?

From basically the beginning, Musk held opinion that $20K Gen 4 cars are the intended endgame.

Of course he also entertained partnering with an existing industry member to get to that step but I expect they all either spat in his face or made offers that weren't remotely close to his desired pace.

Clearly that'll need continued scaling SC build-out to fill any slack that other charging stations companies don't pick up. Adding some locations but certainly expanding stall counts on existing ones. Even more aggressively than they've been doing so far. Even more-so all these destination style chargers, that they are now extending to private work office parking (that'll be even more the meat of Gen 4 charging needs).

 

[gregincal]

Not a TV watcher here, so, no, I don't know the show. There are very big advantages to being able to travel at 55 or 60 mph. There are few practical advantages to being able to get to 60 mph in four seconds instead of eleven.

I totally disagree. Passing and entering freeways on many onramps are both really really painful with 11 second acceleration.

 

[Zaphod]

Great post;
I am beginning to wonder, is Tesla going to be an auto manufacturer along the lines of BMW and Mercedes? They only make vehicles in the $50K+ range.
They have to cater to the high end buyers of the S and the X, who squawk with concerns such as 3 owners clogging up the Superchargers.

I've seen some of the attitudes of S and X owners towards the 3, and to me it doesn't feel conducive to Elon's goal of electrifying the global fleet.


Or will Tesla be more like GM or Toyota. Making vehicles across the spectrum?

I own TSLA stock and have a deposit on a 3, so will continue to wait and find out!

I think you need to check BMW and Mercedes starting prices. The BMW 3 and 4 series start at about $35K , Mercedes CLA coupe starts at $33K, GLA suv at $34K, and C class sedan at just over $40K. Quite a bit lower than $50K.

I believe Elon did mention long ago that they will not make a car the costs less than the 3. Of course things could always change, but don't see it happening, unless some time way in the future.

 

[Zaphod]

From basically the beginning, Musk held opinion that $20K Gen 4 cars are the intended endgame.

Of course he also entertained partnering with an existing industry member to get to that step but I expect they all either spat in his face or made offers that weren't remotely close to his desired pace.

Clearly that'll need continued scaling SC build-out to fill any slack that other charging stations companies don't pick up. Adding some locations but certainly expanding stall counts on existing ones. Even more aggressively than they've been doing so far. Even more-so all these destination style chargers, that they are now extending to private work office parking (that'll be even more the meat of Gen 4 charging needs).

That linked article is about a decade old, so probably not much relevance now.

 

[ℬête Noire]

That linked article is about a decade old, so probably not much relevance now.

Fair enough, adding support with a newer quote is in order.

That's less than 2 years back, just after the M3 reservations opened (I'm not sure where the video for it is, that yt link is busted).

 

[ABCTG]

I think you need to check BMW and Mercedes starting prices. The BMW 3 and 4 series start at about $35K , Mercedes CLA coupe starts at $33K, GLA suv at $34K, and C class sedan at just over $40K. Quite a bit lower than $50K.

Sorry, but I didn't bother to check their prices because I wasn't referring to the prices of either BMW or Mercedes, but the lowest price of a Tesla. $49K I suppose is the lowest price, if you don't include things like the delivery charge.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Sorry, but I didn't bother to check their prices because I wasn't referring to the prices of either BMW or Mercedes, but the lowest price of a Tesla. $49K I suppose is the lowest price, if you don't include things like the delivery charge.

I misunderstood your post. I thought you were just loose handing the price range of Tesla, BMW, and Mercedes (in NA). I didn't think you were literally expecting Tesla not to sell mid-$30K vehicles.

Well there are already a 6-digit number of roughly $35K + delivery Teslas in the pipeline (though lots of them will upgrade with paint, tires, and/or software options). Musk seems pretty damn intent on selling as many of those as people will buy, so it'll be a true shocker if Tesla doesn't sell them past the already committed reservations.

P.S. Inflation may move that floor up a bit in a year or two.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I totally disagree. Passing and entering freeways on many onramps are both really really painful with 11 second acceleration.

Yea, being in Boston, if you're taking 11 seconds to get to highway speed, you are putting yourselves and others around you in danger of bodily harm

 

[McRat]

Yea, being in Boston, if you're taking 11 seconds to get to highway speed, you are putting yourselves and others around you in danger of bodily harm

We have ramps California that are basically dragstrips. To safely merge you have be going 60+ mph, and folk will try to block you. We have 'metering lights' right before you get on the freeway. ie - you come to a full 100% stop near the end of the on-ramp, then wait for a green light and let 'er rip, you have a few hundred feet at most. Even a Volt could use a bit more umph and it's 3 seconds quicker to freeway speed.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

We have ramps California that are basically dragstrips. To safely merge you have be going 60+ mph, and folk will try to block you. We have 'metering lights' right before you get on the freeway. ie - you come to a full 100% stop near the end of the on-ramp, then wait for a green light. Even a Volt could use a bit more umph and it's 3 seconds quicker to freeway speed.

it doesn't help that most of our onramps share the same pavement with an offramp, so as you're trying to get up to speed, someone else is trying to go a few hundred feet past you, slamming on the brakes to get off the highway.

 

[McRat]

it doesn't help that most of our onramps share the same pavement with an offramp, so as you're trying to get up to speed, someone else is trying to go a few hundred feet past you, slamming on the brakes to get off the highway.

Yes the infamous suicide ramps. One stream is trying to slow down, the other is trying to speed up, and they interweave. This is where an EV really shines. That instant punch can make the difference between a panic braking maneuver and a smooth and leisurely blend.