Cancelling my reservation

[gregincal]

You can hate me for my take on it if you want. But MXWing said basically the same thing, and folks agreed he was right. As long as people are ordering $60K versions of the Model 3, they'll put off building $35K versions as long as they can. Or until it becomes moot. That's my guess based on the fact that this is what Tesla's balance sheet requires.

OK, I'll agree with this. If they can sell 200-500K Model 3's a year at 60K each, they may never build the 35K version. I don't think they can.

 

[MXWing]

Also, over time - the Model 3 will become cheaper to produce. There will be economy of scale, production efficiency improvements and reduced cost of components, especially electronics like the NVIDIA PX2 Drive Units.

Based on that, Tesla will be able to produce Model 3's for sale at 35K. However, they may need at the MINIMUM 10,000 Model 3s per week to meet demand for higher variants as well as reach the necessary scale to not lose money on an individual car basis.

We will see if they can hit 5000/week soon. I don't see 10,000 until end of this year at the most optimistic of projections. This seems to fall in line with what Tesla is now giving for reservation time frames.

 

[ℬête Noire]

OK, I'll agree with this. If they can sell 200-500K Model 3's a year at 60K each, they may never build the 35K version. I don't think they can.

I'd qualify that further: "If they can sell 200K-500K Model 3s a year at 60K each and Tesla doesn't choose to turn a slice of that cash back into building out more M3 production capacity to match demand all the way down to the 35K price-point, they may never build the 35K version."

Which, given Musk's apparent longterm goal of turning cash into building product lines further and further down the price-point scale to drive BEV penetration into the world automotive market, makes it even more unlikely.

If he had to get Tesla building 1M units a year to sate demand all the way down to 35K you know he'd do it. It'd be a dream scenario to have that many unit sales/year even ahead of rolling out Gen 4.

 

[JRP3]

What do you hear me complaining about? I'm offering my opinion based on the facts as I saw them. Is that not allowed here? Or only if you agree?

Misrepresenting facts is not allowed and you will be called out on it if you attempt to do so.

Would you agree that it was true that Elon delivered about a dozen Model 3's at the end of July to satisfy his target, and then another one not until what, November, December?

No, it is not true, as everyone else but you seems to know.

Would you agree that we will never know how many people might have ordered a $49,900 Model S had one been available?

No I would not. There was one available, a vastly higher percentage of people chose the longer range/higher power versions.

Would you agree that it's possible that Elon promised the Model S at $49,900 way too early in the game, such that when it became clear he could not build it profitably, he axed it at the first opportunity?

Sure, I'll agree with that. Smart business move to cut your losses when possible.

Could you imagine something similar happening with the Model 3? I can.

I can't. More mature company, more compelling product, more demand for said product, higher volume production, and higher production efficiencies mean it won't happen.

You can hate me for my take on it if you want.

No one hates you, at least I don't, but I do hate the complete falsehoods you attempt to pass as "facts". We all know there is no $35K Model 3 yet, you aren't telling us anything we don't know.

 

[internalaudit]

OK, I'll agree with this. If they can sell 200-500K Model 3's a year at 60K each, they may never build the 35K version. I don't think they can.

Not when other car makers are going to introduce BEVs, price at around $60k each, by 2021.

I know the SCN is one reason many here will prefer a Tesla but to me my priorities are reliability and total cost of ownership. Without the Right to Repair, I think post-warranty, many Tesla owners will be unpleasantly surprised how much these repair and part costs are going to be if Tesla vehicles can just reject any major components with unauthorized serial numbers.

I still am hoping that Toyota/Lexus announces a BEV IS AWD with a 280+ mile range before BMW comes out with the i4GC or iX3.

The 15" display is not going to help at all with multiple drivers in my household. Also I feel PUP and EAP at $5k each are just too expensive especially when all I want in EAP is the TACC. Without PUP, it may be a pain to adjust individual driver settings manually every time someone else is going to be driving the car.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

As a non-owner, came here in hopes there were 32 pages of comments with each comment a unique person cancelling and letting me advance in line. So disappointed in this thread.

 

[diamond.g]

Not when other car makers are going to introduce BEVs, price at around $60k each, by 2021.

I know the SCN is one reason many here will prefer a Tesla but to me my priorities are reliability and total cost of ownership. Without the Right to Repair, I think post-warranty, many Tesla owners will be unpleasantly surprised how much these repair and part costs are going to be if Tesla vehicles can just reject any major components with unauthorized serial numbers.

I still am hoping that Toyota/Lexus announces a BEV IS AWD with a 280+ mile range before BMW comes out with the i4GC or iX3.

The 15" display is not going to help at all with multiple drivers in my household. Also I feel PUP and EAP at $5k each are just too expensive especially when all I want in EAP is the TACC. Without PUP, it may be a pain to adjust individual driver settings manually every time someone else is going to be driving the car.

Don't forget the Mission E and the iPACE.

 

[daniel]

It is a disappointment that the $35K car was not available from the start. But it should not have surprised any of us, given Tesla's trajectory: Start with a $100,000 hand-built high-performance sports car, $150,000 fully-optioned; then move to a $75K high-performance sedan (options extra) and similar SUV; and then to an "affordable" family sedan. Start at the very high end and gradually work down towards "affordable." So the Model 3 is following the same trajectory as Tesla's overall business model: most expensive first, less expensive later.

And as noted by myself and many others, Tesla is incapable of meeting deadlines, but otherwise keeps its promises and sells the cars people sign up for.

Now, with inflation, I would not be surprised if the price goes up, after everyone already on the reservation list who wants the $35K version gets one.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

It is a disappointment that the $35K car was not available from the start. But it should not have surprised any of us, given Tesla's trajectory: Start with a $100,000 hand-built high-performance sports car, $150,000 fully-optioned; then move to a $75K high-performance sedan (options extra) and similar SUV; and then to an "affordable" family sedan. Start at the very high end and gradually work down towards "affordable." So the Model 3 is following the same trajectory as Tesla's overall business model: most expensive first, less expensive later.

And as noted by myself and many others, Tesla is incapable of meeting deadlines, but otherwise keeps its promises and sells the cars people sign up for.

Now, with inflation, I would not be surprised if the price goes up, after everyone already on the reservation list who wants the $35K version gets one.

Don't know about that. The price of the battery packs could very well go down at a faster rate than inflation pushes the price up. We'll see.

Dan

 

[u00mem9]

While it may or may not be true that Tesla Misrepresented when the Model 3 production really started, I don't see how anyone could say the same of Model X. That "Launch" was pretty obviously manipulated to meet a milestone and it was almost 2 quarters later before real production began. @JRP3 do you disagree with that summary?

To me the initial Model 3 25 unit delivery event looked like the final scene from Gung Ho, and I might be reading too much into it, but the expression on Musk's face was more shame than pride. No one disagrees that they skipped final prototypes and decided to make them "employee" deliveries to contain the inevitable resolution of minor issues. Call that "production" if you prefer, but anyone in the industry would politely explain what "production" means...

 

[ℬête Noire]

Don't know about that. The price of the battery packs could very well go down at a faster rate than inflation pushes the price up. We'll see.

Dan

Tough to maintain that rate but plausible. A reasonable estimated price on the SR battery pack cost to Tesla is a little under $7000. For a inflation rate of %2/year you'd need a 10% drop on battery cost the first year. Doable, however how the math works is that as the battery price becomes a smaller portion of total car cost the rate you need, to drop the battery price to maintain the same overall vehicle price, rises above that 10%. Where as projections are that Li batteries prices are already well into the flattening out portion of the S curve.

So the good news is that the first year is likely fairly easy to hit the target.

The sticky wicket is that Tesla is clearly way ahead of that above curve, already. They are basically claiming 2022-2023 type prices (probably their scale is helping enormously here, but yeah Tesla's got a near 5 year head start at this point). Unless they can demonstrate there's a lot lower floor than presumed, at the end of the second year (so start of 2020) there could start being some inflation pressure on the base M3 (definitely on the models further up), even assuming inflation stays put at 2% (which is increasingly looking not-so, thus the stock market gyrations of the last month).

 

[JRP3]

While it may or may not be true that Tesla Misrepresented when the Model 3 production really started, I don't see how anyone could say the same of Model X. That "Launch" was pretty obviously manipulated to meet a milestone and it was almost 2 quarters later before real production began. @JRP3 do you disagree with that summary?

Yes. Model 3 was nothing like that.

I might be reading too much into it, but the expression on Musk's face was more shame than pride.

In fact Elon has admitted he was severely depressed because he had just broken up with his girlfriend and had to force himself to be upbeat. Guess his acting won't win him any awards.

 

[JRP3]

Now, with inflation, I would not be surprised if the price goes up, after everyone already on the reservation list who wants the $35K version gets one.

As I remember the early pricing announcements were something along the lines of "$35K in today's dollars", referencing the possibility of inflation influencing the price.

 

[u00mem9]

Yes. Model 3 was nothing like that.

I’m not asking about M3. I’m asking about the Model X launch.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Without the Right to Repair, I think post-warranty, many Tesla owners will be unpleasantly surprised how much these repair and part costs are going to be if Tesla vehicles can just reject any major components with unauthorized serial numbers.

Tangent: Speaking of this, has there been any follow up on this from last year?

Pack Performance and Launch Mode Limits

I know that specific guy just left the company but has there been any notable movement on opening up info and parts to 3rd parties?

With the huge influx of Teslas via Model 3 that'll make this stuff more viable in locations outside of CA, it seems not only good for owners but ultimately probably good for Tesla to have active 3rd party support for their vehicles.

Is there an active thread somewhere on this in another sub-forum, as it isn't just a Model 3 thing?

 

[gregincal]

I’m not asking about M3. I’m asking about the Model X launch.

And he said Yes in response to your question. And then went back on topic.

 

[u00mem9]

And he said Yes in response to your question. And then went back on topic.

He said "Yes" (meaning he disagrees that Model X was deceptive?) and then says "Model 3 is nothing like that"...so I guess Model 3 rollout IS deceptive lol.

My point is simply that Tesla & Co has behaved in exactly the way that @mattjs33 is accusing them of now. It will probably take another year to know if the mid 2017 "Launch" was phony...but Model X Launch definitely was. This forum has a short memory, but questioning the Model 3 event is completely valid.

 

[diamond.g]

He said "Yes" (meaning he disagrees that Model X was deceptive?) and then says "Model 3 is nothing like that"...so I guess Model 3 rollout IS deceptive lol.

My point is simply that Tesla & Co has behaved in exactly the way that @mattjs33 is accusing them of now. It will probably take another year to know if the mid 2017 "Launch" was phony...but Model X Launch definitely was. This forum has a short memory, but questioning the Model 3 event is completely valid.

It would come down to being able to prove Tesla didn't ship any other 3's other than the 25 until they invited owners to configure. Seemed like it was pretty easy to see that they didn't ship any other Model X's for a few months after delivering the 6(?) initial examples, no?

 

[JRP3]

And he said Yes in response to your question. And then went back on topic.

He said "Yes" (meaning he disagrees that Model X was deceptive?) and then says "Model 3 is nothing like that"...so I guess Model 3 rollout IS deceptive lol.

Actually I screwed up, I thought I was saying "Yes I agree with you about the Model X" but you asked if I disagreed, so the answer should have been "No." and then back on topic: "Model 3 was nothing like that."

 

[gregincal]

Actually I screwed up, I thought I was saying "Yes I agree with you about the Model X" but you asked if I disagreed, so the answer should have been "No." and then back on topic: "Model 3 was nothing like that."

I understood exactly what you meant.