Cheaper battery upgrade cost for Model 3?

[Big-T]

Hey guys, I didn't see a post about this yet but - with Tesla allowing 60kWh model S' to unlock to 75kWh for just $2,000 do you guys expect we'll see an under $3,000 upgrade from whatever the base config is to 75kWh or do you think the price was so cheap because they already put 75kWh in the software unlocked versions and were just trying to get some extra cash?

They did also lower prices on their base model S, so maybe they've gotten the battery costs down farther then we originally thought? Tesla has already said the largest pack it can come with is 75kWh so it seems like an apples/apples comparison but Model3tracker.info still lists a medium battery upgrade for 5k and large battery upgrade at 10k.

 

[boaterva]

The answer would be maybe except there aren't expected to be any software locked batteries for the 3. So many people did not upgrade the 60 at the original price that those 75 packs were wasted (until the upgrade price was dropped to almost nothing). The consensus is that Tesla won't be doing that again.

 

[hckyplyr]

Elon told me it would be $4000.

 

[S3XY]

No, the Model S unlock price is all gravy. The additional cells are already in the pack. For the Model 3 I doubt they will sell software locked 75kWh packs.

 

[03DSG]

No, the Model S unlock price is all gravy. The additional cells are already in the pack. For the Model 3 I doubt they will sell software locked 75kWh packs.

I agree. Selling a software locked pack on such a large volume vehicle as the Model 3 would be a huge expense to Tesla and frankly a waste of most likely much needed battery cell production.

 

[zer0cool]

Ya, 60 to 75 on the Model 3 will be the actual price of the battery and related drive unit. I think it ll be about 7.5k. That makes sense since you get both range and performance. A 330i to 340i upgrade for more performance on a BMW is about 5k. I think 7.5k for 60 to 75 is very reasonable.

 

[flamingoezz]

i dont think m3 will have larger battery with unlock option, but i do think the cost per kwh will be lower than it currently is for the Model S, whatever that gap ends up being.

 

[S3XY]

Probably wishful thinking on my part but I think so too, it should be less than the MS price.

 

[Big-T]

I was looking at this some more (what else is there to do besides check the mule sightings thread ) to look at the kWh cost for the Model 3, the most current article I found was a January 30th Electrek article that said Tesala has been under $190 per kwh since last year and was aiming for an additional 30% reduction in kWh cost with the new 2170 battery they're putting in the Model 3. That would put the cost at $133 per kWh

Now, if we assume the base model will be 55kWh and Elon has said the max battery pack the Model 3 can support a 75kWh max that means we have a potential 20kWh of upgrades to play with. 20 x $133 = $2,660 in cost. Elon has also said that he wants the model 3 to have a 25% gross profit margin, so $2,660 x 1.25 = $3,325, heck even if we double the profit margin on just the batteries $2,660 x 1.5 =$3,990

NOW... this brings up three questions for me

1) Is my math right? Anyone have newer info on costs and/or margins they're hoping to achieve?
2) Taking into account the above info, and the fact they've drastically lowered the cost of software battery unlocks last week (and the overall cost of the 75kWh model S) what are the chances this really will be an under 4k upgrade for the 75kw battery?
3) If the chances are good, and the price is so low, what are the chances they'll make it software unlockable? $2,660 in materials isn't nothing but maybe they could do a 5k battery unlock that gives them even larger margins for folks that do unlock while simplifying manufacturing which seems to be their #1 mandate behind many of their design decisions on the 3.

 

[boaterva]

So, right now there are no software unlocked batteries, right? I would think that's a pretty good indicator of not doing it for the 3; especially after all the versions they have had, and few people taking advantage of it until the price was dropped way down.

 

[JeffK]

So, right now there are no software unlocked batteries, right? I would think that's a pretty good indicator of not doing it for the 3; especially after all the versions they have had, and few people taking advantage of it until the price was dropped way down.

Even if few people were taking advantage of it, there are some advantages to it being software upgradable.

- Can charge to 100%
- Much longer time before battery degradation.
- Increased profits on conversions due to higher price than if done during initial purchase
- If unlocked by Tesla for resale, it increases resale value and thus profits for Tesla.
- Ease of manufacturing only a single item with one configuration.

Disadvantages:
- Cost of the extra 15 kWh or so... a total of around $1500 or less when the Gigafactory is in full swing.
- Extra weight in the base Model

 

[Model 3]

... that said Tesala has been under $190 per kwh since last year and was aiming for an additional 30% reduction in kWh cost with the new 2170 battery they're putting in the Model 3.

1. .... and we do not know how much under $190/kWh it was.
2. That price is most likely to be on the battery pack, not the cells - the cell price was at $180/kWh several years ago...
3. A year ago Elon said they was under $145/kWh (probably at the cell price, not pack price).
4. The 30% reduction was "at least 30%, maybe up to 50%". Later they have confirmed it would be closer to 50%.
5. It is unclear if that price reduction was just based on the GF-production, or if it has calculated in any change in the chemistry. There is strong indications that there will be some chemistry changes on the new cells. Will that reduce the price even more? Or maybe that the difference between 30% and 50% price reductions?

I think your estimated $133/kWh (before any profit) is much higher then the real battery pack price they will end up with. At the cell level I think they will be really close to $100/kWh next year when the GF-I is in "full" production.