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China Market situation and outlook

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It's interesting that VW is opting to sell the ID.3 for $17K in China. They don't sell it in the US, but that spec would probably fetch $25K in the US and sell decently. Anyone know what the regular price of the ID.3 was before the price cut?
It is also sold in EU and is struggling imho at twice the Chinese price where the ID3 EU price is practically the same as a 2-3 year old used Tesla 3.

Though I cannot quickly get latest ID3 numbers, this says ID3 sales are growing but


that is not the message I see on the streets



Interestingly - though it is the ID4 and ID7 lines that are slowing production, I know someone who only today told me he was still waiting since 14-mths ago to get his ID4 delivered to him in Germany

Most odd.
 
Interestingly - though it is the ID4 and ID7 lines that are slowing production, I know someone who only today told me he was still waiting since 14-mths ago to get his ID4 delivered to him in Germany

Most odd.
VW Group sells enough to meet their quota, no more. They probably focus on making the most popular configurations, order something else and you're in for a long wait. Even Rivian, which is ramping as fast as they can, sold trucks in the parking lot to all comers while others who reserved years ago are still on a wait list.
 
VW Group sells enough to meet their quota, no more. They probably focus on making the most popular configurations, order something else and you're in for a long wait. Even Rivian, which is ramping as fast as they can, sold trucks in the parking lot to all comers while others who reserved years ago are still on a wait list.
While Tesla did batch production (and probably still does), they are agile enough to make sure they have 1-1 orders to production (plus some variable excess for ”on the lot” inventory. Tesla logistics is world class.
 
VW Group sells enough to meet their quota, no more. They probably focus on making the most popular configurations, order something else and you're in for a long wait. Even Rivian, which is ramping as fast as they can, sold trucks in the parking lot to all comers while others who reserved years ago are still on a wait list.

Rivian ramped up pickups with four motors and large pack first. That is what they sold at the factory. No one is waiting long term for that configuration in the US.

What people are waiting for is all flavors of SUV and pickups with small pack, max pack, or dual motors.
 
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It's interesting that VW is opting to sell the ID.3 for $17K in China. They don't sell it in the US, but that spec would probably fetch $25K in the US and sell decently. Anyone know what the regular price of the ID.3 was before the price cut?

VW lowered the price 23k Yuan. Which according to google is $3180.49 as I type this.
 
VW Group sells enough to meet their quota, no more. They probably focus on making the most popular configurations, order something else and you're in for a long wait. Even Rivian, which is ramping as fast as they can, sold trucks in the parking lot to all comers while others who reserved years ago are still on a wait list.
Do you think VAG are making losses on the ID series ?

On the ID3 ?
On the ID4 ?
On the ID5 ?
On the ID7 ?
 
Do you think VAG are making losses on the ID series ?

On the ID3 ?
On the ID4 ?
On the ID5 ?
On the ID7 ?
They lose big in China, where they keep slashing prices. I figure they lose in the US due to low volume. They have enough scale in Europe for gross profits and possibly operating profits, depending on how they account for CARIAD and such. I don't have a good feel for average pricing in Europe due to all the "employee cars" sold in bulk to big leasing companies.
 
They lose big in China, where they keep slashing prices. I figure they lose in the US due to low volume. They have enough scale in Europe for gross profits and possibly operating profits, depending on how they account for CARIAD and such. I don't have a good feel for average pricing in Europe due to all the "employee cars" sold in bulk to big leasing companies.
There are some more indications of the scale of the VW ID-n problem in Europe in this piece:


Ouch ! inventory build forcing shortime working is my conclusion from these numbers, for all ID models :

Handelsblatt broke the news in Germany with reference to an insider from dealer circles. All battery-electric models of the Volkswagen brand, meaning the ID.3, ID.4, ID.5 and ID. Buzz are affected......

.....cites some figures from data service provider Marklines: according to them, VW built 97,000 units of [all !] its ID. models in Europe between January and May, but sold only 73,000 of them. [by comparison] Tesla came to over 100,000 sales in this period with its Model Y alone.

Add to that the growing competition: something like the MG4, a direct competitor to VW’s ID.3, was registered about 23,100 times in Europe from January to May. The VW ID.3 came to just under 28,000 registrations in the same period. And according to Marklines, the ID.3 was built 36,500 times. And even with the hopeful ID. Buzz, the plans will probably not be fulfilled; according to the report, the “meager demand” is likely to “cause pain” for the Group’s top executives: In the first five months, 9,000 units were probably built in Hanover, of which 5,577 were registered in Europe. The plan was to build around 44,000 IDs for the year as a whole.

.....When Volkswagen reported its delivery figures for 2022 in January, the brand still said it had around 640,000 customer orders in Europe across all drive types. According to the Handelsblatt report, incoming orders now stand at “around 650,000 vehicles.” “However, existing orders are apparently melting away faster than planned because too few new orders are coming in – especially from the battery-powered vehicle segment,” the report says. In addition, executives from affected plants are quoted as saying that demand for some e-models has fallen to “zero” in some cases. Accordingly, dealers estimate that inventory could be worked off by the fall if no new orders come in.

“Largely on schedule,” on the other hand, is only the key account business. Fleet sales can therefore also explain the 16 percent increase in registrations for the VW brand in the first half of 2023.
 
I think North America would buy all 100k per year ID. Buzz scheduled for retail buyers.

VW European EV sales 30% below projections and laying off 300 of 1500 temporary workers building EVs is not exactly the end of the world.

But building 97,000 amongst all the ID-n and only being able to sell 73,000 of them in Europe was what is driving the Europe lay-offs. So Europe demand for VW BEVs is clearly weak and that is not affecting Tesla. Similarly in China the demand for VW BEVs is also clearly weak, hence those price cuts to try and drive demand up.

You may not think this a problem for VW, but the VW CEO Thomas Schafer clearly does:


(Mind you I don't know where the article gets the idea that Tesla is struggling with weak demand.)

Re the ID Buzz the issue will be at what price and what profit. Making and selling 100k unprofitably is easy .....
 
But building 97,000 amongst all the ID-n and only being able to sell 73,000 of them in Europe was what is driving the Europe lay-offs. So Europe demand for VW BEVs is clearly weak and that is not affecting Tesla. Similarly in China the demand for VW BEVs is also clearly weak, hence those price cuts to try and drive demand up.

You may not think this a problem for VW, but the VW CEO Thomas Schafer clearly does:


(Mind you I don't know where the article gets the idea that Tesla is struggling with weak demand.)

Re the ID Buzz the issue will be at what price and what profit. Making and selling 100k unprofitably is easy .....
He's angling for more subsidies in Germany, where Tesla sales have also fallen. Tesla Q2 was down ~25% from Q1 and 50% from Q4. Tesla can compensate with truly stunning sales growth in smaller markets like Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Belgium, etc. the past six months. VW is more dependent on Germany, though, and much less agile.
 
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