China Market situation and outlook

[cwerdna]

I posted this in another forum. Apologies if any of this is a repeat:

was an 8.5 minute segment on EVs in China. They did mention that Shenzhen's the world's first city to rely only on electric buses. They said that city operates more electric buses than every city outside of China combined.

At 5:05 or so, they talk about BYD "greening" the city's taxi fleet.

They show this massive (LOTS of bays) charging area, presumably for taxis and the massive line. They said that almost all of the city's 22K cabs are electric. They talked to a taxi driver who said that he sometimes had to wait in line. A few months back, he waited an hour in line to charge and another 2 hours to charge.

After doing some Googling to see if I could find some pics, I found World's largest charging station in Shenzhen powers all-electric taxi fleet | The Driven. Not sure if it's the same area.

An electric taxi charging station in China’s hi-tech city of Shenzhen has reportedly become the largest EV charging station in the world, as a second phase of construction adding 172 fast chargers to total 637 fast chargers was completed this week.

Unclear if they really are "fast" chargers, say over 20 kW. In China, they use GB/T standards for AC and DC charging. From what I've seen, their DC ports look similar to CHAdeMO but isn't. Their AC inlet resembles Mennekes Type 2 but w/the wrong gender.

Was part of the 10-part series I started at thread on at PBS NewsHour China: Power & Prosperity. That thread's been crickets.

 

[Tam]

...2 hours to charge...

That sounds about right. Its specs:

"V2G 480 VAC, 3 phase, 2h (0–100% SOC)"

In 2012, it was:

"Charge time is estimated to be 18 hours or six hours through a "fast" DC charger. "

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: China November 2019

 

[Cosmacelf]

FWIW, a friend in China said they test drove a Model 3 that was manufactured in the Shanghai factory. So a lot of those manufactured Model 3s might not have been available for sale right away, but they were shipped to stores for demo rides. All good stuff.

 

[jeewee3000]

FWIW, a friend in China said they test drove a Model 3 that was manufactured in the Shanghai factory. So a lot of those manufactured Model 3s might not have been available for sale right away, but they were shipped to stores for demo rides. All good stuff.

If I had to guess I'd say Tesla is holding out on MIC Model 3 deliveries since they have enough produced/delivered without them to reach the (lower end of the) guidance for H2 2019. If all the produced MIC Model 3's are delivered in Q1 2020 that would help the worse quarter of the year to reach profitability.

One can dream.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model X this time managed to outsell (9,400 vs 8,900 units) the 2018 Best Seller Nio ES8, recovering the title that had belong to it in previous years.


EV Sales: China December 2019

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla Model X this time managed to outsell (9,400 vs 8,900 units) the 2018 Best Seller Nio ES8, recovering the title that had belong to it in previous years.


EV Sales: China December 2019

Huge December after horrible October and November. I expected about 100k. I'm suspicious of the reported numbers, but maybe I just don't like being wrong China is famous for last minute "fleet sales" to related parties and similar tricks. The BAIC EU- and EV-Series are clear outliers. SAIC Roewe EIS, also. Note that BAIC and SAIC are both state-owned. The SAIC Baojun E-Series number look legit, it still qualifies for subsidies and is really cheap, plus they expanded sales nationally in Q4.

Jose's Tesla estimate is just a guess, he was WAY off in November. Not that I have a better guess. Tesla shipped a lot more cars to China in Q4 than prior quarters, and the P&D report indicates they sold them.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"China's electric vehicle showdown

Chief executive Makoto Uchida called the Ariya the "flagship of the new Nissan" at its online launch this month from the company's headquarters in Japan. The company is hoping the model will sell particularly well in China, despite tough local competition from US-based Tesla.

The electric vehicle (EV) giant, led by polarising CEO Elon Musk, became the best-selling new EV in China in May this year, a combination of the brand's international cachet, strong reputation in China and the construction of an expansive production facility in Shanghai. [...]

China's electric vehicle showdown

 

[RobStark]

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (16%, down 1%) is still in the leadership, but slowly losing charge, with Tesla (14%) firm in 2nd, same as SAIC (10%) in 3rd, while below the podium, we see a position change, with Volkswagen (7%, up 1%) climbing to #4, switching positions with GAC (6%, down 1%), with BAIC and BMW, both with 5%, are waiting for a chance to climb higher.

EV Sales: China June 2020

 

[bonaire]

Can you give a side by side of the Chinese EV market by showing the 2019 graph for end of June alongside that?

 

[JRP3]

Everyone remember that bonaire is in deep with TSLAQ.

 

[Electroman]

Everyone remember that bonaire is in deep with TSLAQ.

Neck deep..

 

[Electroman]

It appears that Tesla made massive - upto 30% - price cuts in China starting this year, Jan 1. What is the deal with those massive price cuts. So all the folks who rushed to buy in Dec are going to be mightily upset. Why can't Tesla decrease it gradually 10% every quarter?

 

[Zaxxon]

It appears that Tesla made massive - upto 30% - price cuts in China starting this year, Jan 1. What is the deal with those massive price cuts. So all the folks who rushed to buy in Dec are going to be mightily upset. Why can't Tesla decrease it gradually 10% every quarter?

What I believe Tesla did was replace their pre-production, do-not-buy-this Model Y pricing with the 'real' pricing now that it's in production and not Osbourning Model 3 sales.

There were no massive cuts to vehicles that people could buy prior to Jan 1.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It appears that Tesla made massive - upto 30% - price cuts in China starting this year, Jan 1. What is the deal with those massive price cuts. So all the folks who rushed to buy in Dec are going to be mightily upset. Why can't Tesla decrease it gradually 10% every quarter?

Link?

 

[Electroman]

So it is a price cut only for Y to get it in line with reality? Model 3 prices were left untouched?

 

[Electroman]

Link?

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1345132921166811137

"BREAKING: MIC Model Y prices are revised as follows: ¥339.900 reduced from ¥488,000 for AWD LR and ¥369,900 reduced from ¥535,000 for Performance variant. Deliveries will start in Jan. This will be bad news for NIO, LI and Xpeng as their prices are all in the same range.
The MIC Model Y price drop is a big bombshell sending shockwaves across the NEV space. I immediately said this would be bad news for NIO, LI & XPEV. NIO feels repercussion now as many reservation holders flock to cancel their EC6/ES6 reservations & turn to MYs. To be continued."

I think as the earlier poster said it appears to be a price drop only for MIC Model Y, to be more realistic with MIC Model 3

 

[bkp_duke]

It wasn't a "cut" because you could not previously order the Y at the listed, "estimated" prices.

When ordering was opened up for the Y yesterday, then the prices (in line with US) were revised.



So I would say calling it a "price cut" is a bit disingenuous, but I'm sure people like Gordon will pick this terminology to press their agenda.

 

[Electroman]

It wasn't a "cut" because you could not previously order the Y at the listed, "estimated" prices.

When ordering was opened up for the Y yesterday, then the prices (in line with US) were revised.



So I would say calling it a "price cut" is a bit disingenuous, but I'm sure people like Gordon will pick this terminology to press their agenda.

Makes sense. The earlier price was more a place holder, since no cars were sold at that price.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It wasn't a "cut" because you could not previously order the Y at the listed, "estimated" prices.

When ordering was opened up for the Y yesterday, then the prices (in line with US) were revised.

So I would say calling it a "price cut" is a bit disingenuous, but I'm sure people like Gordon will pick this terminology to press their agenda.

Agreed it's not a cut, just the first "real" price for these models. Prices are lower than US, though. Before 13% VAT (Chinese version of sales tax) these RMB 339.9k and 369.9k prices converted to USD are:

Y AWD - 46.0k (US price 51.2k incl destination)
Y Perf - 50.1k (US price 61.2k incl destination)
3 Perf - 46.0k (US price 56.2k incl destination)

So Y AWD is 5k less and 3/Y P versions are 10-11k less than US prices. MIC VW ID4 currently starts at 250k for the RWD version. I'm told that's with the 77 kWh battery but have not confirmed it.

Subsidies declined slightly on 1/1 so Tesla cut the pre-subsidy 3 SR+ price a little to maintain the 249.9k post-subsidy price.