China Market situation and outlook

[ScepticMatt]

Rember the state grid "superchargers"?

Well, they recently opened a 26,500 m² charging complex consisting of 25 chargers at 360 kW and 5 chargers at 90 kW

China State Grid has built and opened the largest ultra-fast EV charging station in the Chaoyang district of Beijing. The 26,500 m2 EV charging complex at Xiaoying Terminal has 25 chargers at 360 kW and 5 chargers at 90 kW, offering fast capacity for 30 urban transit buses at the same time.

Future facility and charging point expansions are already planned out for 2016-2020 to accommodate more routes converting to fast charging electric vehicles.

Green Car Congress: Largest ultra-fast EV charging station goes live in Beijing; supporting electric buses out of Xiaoying Terminal
World's Largest Ultra-fast EV Charging Station Goes Live in Beijing, Fully Charging... -- STAFFORD, Texas, Dec. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

(Via TFF forums)

 

[renim]

Festerfeet great to have you here :smile:

I am curious about the bold statement, what sort of data would authorities ask Tesla for? What if Tesla declines to provide such data?

Any data that Tesla deems worth recording, is by nature reasonable for the government to expect to have access to. (if Tesla doesn't record anything that is different) For instance, if autopilot or web surfing while driving is illegal, then its simply evidence that a crime has been committed. Just as much a speed camera in Sydney is allowed to take photos of Sydney drivers number plates when they speed.

If Tesla declines, then Tesla can leave the country. China does not need Tesla, Chinese new energy vehicle sales now matchs USA and EU combined (November'15, CN25k vs US10k + EU16k), and is on track to exceed USA and EU and Japan combined during 2016.

Roads are public areas, with real safety issues.

 

[Auzie]

Any data that Tesla deems worth recording, is by nature reasonable for the government to expect to have access to. (if Tesla doesn't record anything that is different) For instance, if autopilot or web surfing while driving is illegal, then its simply evidence that a crime has been committed. Just as much a speed camera in Sydney is allowed to take photos of Sydney drivers number plates when they speed.

If Tesla declines, then Tesla can leave the country. China does not need Tesla, Chinese new energy vehicle sales now matchs USA and EU combined (November'15, CN25k vs US10k + EU16k), and is on track to exceed USA and EU and Japan combined during 2016.

Roads are public areas, with real safety issues.

Chinese government expectation to have access to anyone else's data is not too surprising imho. The bit I do not get is the logistics of the request, or the details. How would the request for data unfold, under what law?

Your example of speed cameras is slightly different. The entity that owns the cameras (RTA) does not need to ask anyone for data, they collect and own the data. In this example, RTA owns the data and is empowered to act on that information. However, RTA can not demand my dashcam card data, nor can they kick me off the roads because RTA does not need me and it is much bigger than me.

 

[chickensevil]

Tesla might also be anonymizing the data such that they wouldn't be able to provide that information. If I were them and tracking the ongoing details of where and when people were driving, their speed, and other such details I would totally shuffle the details such that it isn't being stored and therefore not able to be easily tied back to a single person. This is for Tesla's safety as much as anything. Because if Tesla has a breech that is a LOT of very personal data that could be used against someone (their driving habits and such).

Also, with Tesla storing the data off-shore (i.e. in the US) I doubt that China could really ask for the data and expect much from the request. It isn't stored in their country. Now the FBI knocking on Tesla's door... well... American's who drive a Tesla might be out of luck there...

Not that Tesla wouldn't reasonably provide some amount of "black box" data upon request, but I am sure they won't just give it up for any reason.

Note: These are all assumptions based on assumed culture within the company and how Silicon Valley companies tend to operate on such things, and applying my security background. I do not actually know how Tesla is doing any of this, or how they would handle such requests.

 

[Benz]

"BYD Plug-In Electric Car Sales Surge To 7,000 In November"

Link: http://insideevs.com/byd-plug-in-electric-car-sales-surge-to-7000-in-november/#comment-768726

 

[JRP3]

The important numbers:

BYD’stwo all-electric cars – e5 and e6 – achieved 379 and 499, respectively.

 

[Fallenone]

Hong Kong has their own laws that are different than the one in mainland China. Doesn't seem mainland China has an issue with autopilot. I don't know what Hong Kong government is asking about this data.

Chinese government expectation to have access to anyone else's data is not too surprising imho. The bit I do not get is the logistics of the request, or the details. How would the request for data unfold, under what law?

Your example of speed cameras is slightly different. The entity that owns the cameras (RTA) does not need to ask anyone for data, they collect and own the data. In this example, RTA owns the data and is empowered to act on that information. However, RTA can not demand my dashcam card data, nor can they kick me off the roads because RTA does not need me and it is much bigger than me.

- - - Updated - - -

BYD is using plug in hybrids to get tons of governmental incentives. They are more like prius with lines of SUV and sedans. Their passenger pure EV car is pretty bad overall. Their EV buses on the other hand are among the best the market offers.

"BYD Plug-In Electric Car Sales Surge To 7,000 In November"

Link: http://insideevs.com/byd-plug-in-electric-car-sales-surge-to-7000-in-november/#comment-768726

 

[Quant]

China is not, and never will be, a level playing field for manufacturers who import their products. Particularly, in industries which the government policy clearly sees a strategic and politically important long-term need for local manufacturers to drive market leadership.

I am not optimistic about Tesla prospects in China to deliver, say 100 K cars annually by even 2020. I believe Elon Musk is not quite realistic about Tesla's LT prospects in China, or even Japan. Any Tesla JV in China will have serious hurdles on many fronts.

 

[Festerfeet]

Chinese government expectation to have access to anyone else's data is not too surprising imho. The bit I do not get is the logistics of the request, or the details. How would the request for data unfold, under what law?

Your example of speed cameras is slightly different. The entity that owns the cameras (RTA) does not need to ask anyone for data, they collect and own the data. In this example, RTA owns the data and is empowered to act on that information. However, RTA can not demand my dashcam card data, nor can they kick me off the roads because RTA does not need me and it is much bigger than me.

Hong Kong and mainland China have two different legal systems at present, but this will become less of a difference over time. So I cannot say what the law is in HK but there is a potential that HK authorities could request this data. They have made it clear that they are aware a number of owners have specced or upgraded to autopilot. I agree that requesting this data is not the same as getting it and I would hope that it is annonymised by Tesla.

PR China is a different matter, they have not banned autopilot to date and I hope they don't but they have certainly used data from dash cams in court before (sorry I can't find and examples in English).

China has not been shy in flexing it's commercial muscles regarding data storage in the mainland or making requests for offshore data either from companies or foreign governmental organisations previously. This has been met with varying levels of success but Tesla is not a huge company yet with a significant market share in China. They do not need to be rubbing the Chinese government up the wrong way.

In other wordsI hope they are anonymising data from Autopilot but until it is confirmed, I would be wary about using it in Hong Kong. I am also waiting to see what China do in regard to Autopilot, hope it is clear before I configure my X.

 

[Festerfeet]

China is not, and never will be, a level playing field for manufacturers who import their products. Particularly, in industries which the government policy clearly sees a strategic and politically important long-term need for local manufacturers to drive market leadership.

I am not optimistic about Tesla prospects in China to deliver, say 100 K cars annually by even 2020. I believe Elon Musk is not quite realistic about Tesla's LT prospects in China, or even Japan. Any Tesla JV in China will have serious hurdles on many fronts.

China is not the first country to offer a less than level playing field to others and given the example set by large developed countries both recently and historically, it would be a surprise if they did.

This does not mean that foreign companies cannot benefit from China's market. It is true that some have suffered under the previous JV rules while others have thrived. It is also important to note that JV is not the only option for foreign companies in China and hasn't been for a little while.

Operating in China brings challenges but also opportunities.

 

[hobbes]

China is not the first country to offer a less than level playing field to others and given the example set by large developed countries both recently and historically, it would be a surprise if they did.

Yeah... look at Germany´s upcoming legislation requiring CCS at every public charger for example.
(See German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point. )

 

[ScepticMatt]

The final, unified Guobao charging standard specifications have been released on the 28th, effective on the 1st of January.
Tesla have committed to supporting it, including existing infrastructure. I'm not aware about an update on that front, but maybe the new year address will mention it again.

AQSIQ, the State Standards Committee joint National Energy Board, the Ministry of Industry, Science and Technology and other departments, in Beijing released a new revision of electric vehicle charging interfaces and communications protocols 5 national standards, the new standard will take effect on January 1 next year to implement.

In terms of security, the new standard increased the charging interface temperature monitoring, electronic locks, insulation monitoring and other functions bleeder, thinning the DC charging car-side interface security measures explicitly prohibit unsafe charging mode application, can effectively avoid occurrence electric shock, burning and other accidents equipment to ensure the safety of users of electric vehicles and charging.

In compatibility, AC and DC charging interface type and structure compatible with the existing standard, the new standard modify some contact and mechanical lock size, but old plug socket can cooperate with each other, DC charging interface adds an electronic locking device, does not affect Electrical connection between the old and new products, users only need to update the communications protocol version, you can achieve a new power supply equipment and electric cars can guarantee basic charging function.

Charging pile GB today released - sina.com

 

[hobbes]

So that´s the standard that Tesla has participated in developing, right? Wonder if it is good that might be a model for other regions, too...

The final, unified Guobao charging standard specifications have been released on the 28th, effective on the 1st of January.
Tesla have committed to supporting it, including existing infrastructure. I'm not aware about an update on that front, but maybe the new year address will mention it again.




Charging pile GB today released - sina.com

 

[ScepticMatt]

So that´s the standard that Tesla has participated in developing, right?

yes

 

[chickensevil]

The final, unified Guobao charging standard specifications have been released on the 28th, effective on the 1st of January.
Tesla have committed to supporting it, including existing infrastructure. I'm not aware about an update on that front, but maybe the new year address will mention it again.




Charging pile GB today released - sina.com

Thanks for this. Will be interesting to get the full specs and see what the limits of the standard are. Hopefully it is something like 150kW charging on DC. But I'll just be happy to see 100-120kW

 

[stopcrazypp]

Thanks for this. Will be interesting to get the full specs and see what the limits of the standard are. Hopefully it is something like 150kW charging on DC. But I'll just be happy to see 100-120kW

Amps matters more than kW. The previous 2011 standard was 750V and 250A which is already 187.5kW (750V*250A) on paper, but in reality given the typical ~400V battery voltages, that only meant less than 100kW in the real world.

The superchargers for example routinely go over 340A during peak power because when you arrive at the station at low SOC typically you are at ~360V.

 

[Auzie]

Tianjin drops traffic restrictions for Tesla

New energy vehicles (NEV), including Tesla Model S, will be allowed on roads without restrictions starting Friday in Tianjin Municipality, local government said.
Gas-fueled vehicles in the city will still be restricted one out of five weekdays based on their license plate numbers.

NEVs are exempt from a licence plate lottery system in Tianjin.

Government regulations are becoming more helpful in clean transportation adoption, at least in China. That is likely to translate into more Tesla sales in coming years.

 

[SebastianR]

Tianjin drops traffic restrictions for Tesla

NEVs are exempt from a licence plate lottery system in Tianjin.

Government regulations are becoming more helpful in clean transportation adoption, at least in China. That is likely to translate into more Tesla sales in coming years.

And I really hope that other cities in China and Europe (Rome and Milan are currently imposing smog related driving restrictions) follow suit for electric cars. This would be a huge catalyst for demand for electric cars!

 

[Auzie]

And I really hope that other cities in China and Europe (Rome and Milan are currently imposing smog related driving restrictions) follow suit for electric cars. This would be a huge catalyst for demand for electric cars!

My expectation is that ALL cities/countries will eventually introduce regulations that curb/tax emissions.

These favorable regulations are likely to push the electric cars adoptions across the tipping point.

One more example of restrictions, Delhi bans cars on alternative days to cut pollution

It is just a matter of time that all cities/countries eventually ban polluting cars. That is my expectation for the future, but it is difficult to say how many years it will take to get there.

 

[Drax7]

This is a major incentive to go electric.
If half the cars are out of commission , the utility
of your electric is twice as much .

this pretty much requires autonomous cars to be
electric.