Not strictly true. Each quarter's 10-Q filing has segment revenue information for their largest segments. China, Norway, and the US numbers are reported in 2014 filings.
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Not strictly true. Each quarter's 10-Q filing has segment revenue information for their largest segments. China, Norway, and the US numbers are reported in 2014 filings.
Krugerrand
Meow
It's all been guesses from the start. They guessed what demand would be worldwide for the Model S and they were wrong. They guessed what demand would be for individual markets and were wrong in some cases. The thing is, people ask him these types of questions all the time. Would everyone be happy with the answer: "I haven't got a clue?" Um...no. And so Elon and Tesla give their best guess at the time. Sometimes that means they're going to guess wrong. It may simply take China and Germany longer to develop, or they may never develop as big markets for Tesla. We'll just have to wait and see.
The current best guess for Model X is that demand will be higher than it is for Model S based on the SUV market being significantly larger, higher reservation rate, larger SuperCharger Network, better brand recognition etc... In the end, that might be the wrong guess.
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Excellent point.
I still don't quite buy the scalpers argument. You're saying a whole slew of Chinese business people decided to continue to order large quantities of Model S's even though they couldn't push their existing inventory off their lots, month after month after month? Undoubtedly there were some that speculatively bought cars for resale, but they would stop buying as soon as they could not unload their inventory. If they are able to unload their inventory, then it really doesn't matter much to Tesla as Tesla got their sale and their full amount of money.
I can completely understand an Osborne effect in long delivery time markets in Q4 - the autopilot sensors and the D variants were both announced but unavailable to overseas markets. Witness the disruption and re-orders in the U.S. To me, between that effect and the charging effect, we had weakness in Q4 which would be temporary.
In any case, Tesla imported based on orders, 4,344 by the end of November. Assume that they imported 0 in December and was unable to sell 10% of the November imports of 803 - that's 83 cars. That means 1,188 Q4 sales, or less than what I modeled for the initial quarter of delivery (Q2) and it represents about 10-11% of the total worldwide Q4 sales. Considering they were hoping for more like 15-30%, 10-11% is very disappointing. For the year, it's 4,261, or about 13% of worldwide sales. Again, they were hoping for more like 15% at the low end, and given remarks at the launch of China deliveries, they were hoping for more like 20-30%.
China regional revenue from Tesla's 10-Q filings are:
Q2: $141.40 million
9 months ending Q3: $342.8 million
which means Q3: $201.40 million
If resellers couldn't sell their cars in significant quantities in Q2, it is unlikely they ordered and accepted delivery of 40% more in Q3.
Since Tesla is production constrained, this just means that production shifted to fulfill orders elsewhere.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I want to bring this super old message that Maoing wrote about "charging issues" mentioned by Elon that the Chinese have been experiencing. It was written on May of 2014, and from viewing the pictures from links posted above, one can clearly see that the charging issues are real, and that it appears to be a complicated task of getting creative to wrap ones mind around installing a charger. I trust that Elon and company has already figured out a solution.
It's interesting that you brought up my old posts. Frankly speaking the posts in the same Model S forum has far less activities than 6 months ago. I was worrying about that, but I think this might be due to people are not that curious about Model S when Tesla initially hit the China market. Also the demand always being hide by production constraint and long wait time. So I really couldn't tell the China sale dropped a lot as Elon said.
I am new to this thread and did not go through all 75 pages of discussions. But as someone who lives in HK, I want to make a few comments on the whole China issue.
I love my P85. Tesla started delivering the Model S in Hong Kong in Sep 2014, and since then, it has apparently more than double the total number of EVs in HK. Rumor has it that there are about a 1000 Model S on the road in the 4 months it started delivery in HK.
When Musk talks about China, I suspect he separates Hong Kong from the mainland market. HK seems to be doing very well for the Model S. It's everywhere. You can take a look here. Someone decides to take photos of every Tesla he/she sees on the road in HK:
Cars - Tesla - an album on Flickr
Now, I am not a bit surprised that sales in Mainland disappoints. Why? One must understand how the market is different. In HK/China, the car is often driven by chauffeurs. The owners may drive them as weekend cars, but during the week, chauffers are the 'default' driver, leaving the 'owners' in the back row. Lets face it, the Model S is a very driver-centric car. The backrow is really quite uncomfortable. I am just shy of 6 ft tall and in the backrow, it feels like I have to squat and duck at the same time. For short rides, it's ok, but for longer rides, the back row is quite uncomfortable. Note that they now offer a 4 seat version of the Model S (at least in HK, not sure in other mkts, didn't check) as an option, but that is also a nono in terms of sales.
As passengers in the back row, it is perhaps a little too minimalistic. (the average Mainland Chinese is anything but minimalistic). No storage is well documented (some like it, some think it is ridiculous). But there's also no 'controls'. No control over climate, radio (yes you can use your phone to act as the source etc... but still no vol control). If Tesla wants to improve on these, they surely can with a souped up app. Better than nothing. Or better yet, make a small touch screen that sits above the backrow AC outlet as standard.
Now when the owners do drive on the weekends, you need to give memory seat settings to the front passenger side! Why? The *Mrs.* sit there. Another memory will probably have the seat pushed all the way fwd so when the chauffeur is driving, it will give the rear passenger the max leg room.
Some of you may be thinking that my comments seem strange. Just take a look at all the Jap and German competitors. They all have similar features for the REAR passengers. BMW, e.g., make their 5 series in a LONG wheel base in China. You've got to adapt to the local 'culture'.
Just my HK$ 2 cents. =)
ws
I love my P85. Tesla started delivering the Model S in Hong Kong in Sep 2014, and since then, it has apparently more than double the total number of EVs in HK. Rumor has it that there are about a 1000 Model S on the road in the 4 months it started delivery in HK.
When Musk talks about China, I suspect he separates Hong Kong from the mainland market. HK seems to be doing very well for the Model S. It's everywhere. You can take a look here. Someone decides to take photos of every Tesla he/she sees on the road in HK:
Cars - Tesla - an album on Flickr
Now, I am not a bit surprised that sales in Mainland disappoints. Why? One must understand how the market is different. In HK/China, the car is often driven by chauffeurs. The owners may drive them as weekend cars, but during the week, chauffers are the 'default' driver, leaving the 'owners' in the back row. Lets face it, the Model S is a very driver-centric car. The backrow is really quite uncomfortable. I am just shy of 6 ft tall and in the backrow, it feels like I have to squat and duck at the same time. For short rides, it's ok, but for longer rides, the back row is quite uncomfortable. Note that they now offer a 4 seat version of the Model S (at least in HK, not sure in other mkts, didn't check) as an option, but that is also a nono in terms of sales.
As passengers in the back row, it is perhaps a little too minimalistic. (the average Mainland Chinese is anything but minimalistic). No storage is well documented (some like it, some think it is ridiculous). But there's also no 'controls'. No control over climate, radio (yes you can use your phone to act as the source etc... but still no vol control). If Tesla wants to improve on these, they surely can with a souped up app. Better than nothing. Or better yet, make a small touch screen that sits above the backrow AC outlet as standard.
Now when the owners do drive on the weekends, you need to give memory seat settings to the front passenger side! Why? The *Mrs.* sit there. Another memory will probably have the seat pushed all the way fwd so when the chauffeur is driving, it will give the rear passenger the max leg room.
Some of you may be thinking that my comments seem strange. Just take a look at all the Jap and German competitors. They all have similar features for the REAR passengers. BMW, e.g., make their 5 series in a LONG wheel base in China. You've got to adapt to the local 'culture'.
Just my HK$ 2 cents. =)
ws
I obviously do not say its only scalpers, but a huge share was indeed scalpers it explains the decrease.
Also your calculations is somewhat off as you think they sell every car they import, but this includes cars for test drives, loaners, vehicles as corporate fleet cars for own employees. This number also includes (a small i guess) number of Grey imports if Dailykanban is to be trusted.
I think Chinese sales should be calculated the 120-140k ASP due to higher prices, Tesla doesnt say if they count the tax or not, so we arrive ca. 2700 cars sold in Q2&Q3.
But in the end your number of 1200 is about right guess, i see 1000-1200 cars
Also your calculations is somewhat off as you think they sell every car they import, but this includes cars for test drives, loaners, vehicles as corporate fleet cars for own employees. This number also includes (a small i guess) number of Grey imports if Dailykanban is to be trusted.
I think Chinese sales should be calculated the 120-140k ASP due to higher prices, Tesla doesnt say if they count the tax or not, so we arrive ca. 2700 cars sold in Q2&Q3.
But in the end your number of 1200 is about right guess, i see 1000-1200 cars
I don't think this is as conclusive as you say. I don't know the China market at all but another scenario is plausible as well. With the long lead time of an order fot the Chinese market it is entirely possible that cars arriving in Q3 were ordered before 'dealers' had visibility of the difficulty with moving the cars in Q2. Why didn't they walk away from the cars? Because they had to pay import duties on the cars before they arrived in the country which is a lot more than a simple deposit.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
First of all, wslam thanks a lot for your great input!
To my opinion your point of view from your home base Hong Kong being close to China (thus having a more precise perception of the chinese culture) is putting a good spot light on these issues.
Different culture -> different needs.
From my trips to China and from the changes german car makers do to their cars for the chinese market, I agree with everything you mentioned above.
- Different competition in China
For example BMW is selling their 5-series with a long wheelbase in China (heard the same about 3-series, but have no confirmation).
You can't even buy that long wheelbase version anywhere in Europe! Changing the wheelbase is a very big change to a car (keep in mind weight ratio changing, handling changing and so on).
Much bigger change than only snapping in different back seats in a Model S.
That is why I basically think chinese customers are comparing the Model S to slightly different competing products like the customers in USA or Europe are used to.
- Different driving situation
Totally agree on chauffeur driving.
Just imagine you are proud that you can pay for a driver five days a week (great).
But you have to sit 3 hours in a Model S backseat during your daily commute (no fun at all) in a traffic jam in a big chinese city going to work and back.
- Home charging
As an owner, you need home charging, otherwise owning an EV is just too stressful.
Hope everyone agress here.
Most Chinese in big cities live in apartments. Very different to the States or Europe. A lot of Tesla customers in USA or Europe live in a house.
Just compare the different situation (By the way, I yould imagine home charger installation situation in New York city center is as bad as in Shanghai or Beijing city center)
Where to install my home charger here in China?
Ahh, I know where to install my home charger here in the States!
It is a fact that many people in China simply don't have dedicated parking spots for their cars
You just can not ask an electrician to install a home charger in some public basement garage
Possible conclusion:
Might it be a better idea for Tesla to try to find early adopters in the 2nd and 3rd tier cities compared to the prestigious big cities like Beijing and Shanghai?!
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My understanding is the taxes cannot be included in revenue and the Model S is sold at the same price as it is in the USA plus taxes. Therefore, that puts a bounds on the units we know they sold in Q2 and Q3. I do model a high ASP, about $5k higher than Norway which should already have a very high ASP. The other side of this is US ASP - if you push down China numbers too far, you are basically putting those sales into the US bucket and the ASP in the US can only be so low... I have it in the mid 80k's which is shocking to me, but that's what the data says. By assuming zero cars imported in Dec, I am already making a big cut... and every car imported except for a few is designated to a buyer. As for demo units, the number should be relatively static as older units are sold and new ones replaced. The holdback I used should cover demo unit expansion and cars that were refused delivery and that they couldn't find a replacement buyer.
chickensevil
Active Member
Thanks for your input it is much appreciated and I think it is these reasons that Tesla is trying to address the rear seating concerns. To you and ev-enthusiast, I would like to point out a couple things that I think you may not be aware of that should hopefully ease some of you concerns although I agree there is still more work to be done regarding making the car a proper chauffeur vehicle.
First there *shouldn't* be a need for a longer wheelbase (this was brought up by ev-enthusiast). While I haven't seen the spacing difference for myself personally, I have heard reports that the seats themselves sit a little lower (ergo: more headroom) and sit a little farther back (ergo: more legroom). It is for this reason that if you order these seats, you can no longer order the rear child seats because now there isn't enough room for them because the main seats sit too far back. Not that this is likely to be a huge issue since I assume the two different options would target two different people.
The second point is regarding the rear controls (or lack thereof). It is stated on the website "Rear seat passengers can control media, climate and panoramic roof settings with the Tesla app". Currently you can't do any of these (minus limited climate control... and *very* limited roof settings) with the state of the current App. This leads me to believe that by the time they start shipping the car they will have an updated App available for download that will include better features and more control.
That being said, I wholly agree with the notion that they should really just stick a proper set of controls in the rear... even if it is an Option... and even if it can *only* be included with the executive seats... although I would think rear info-tainment would be great for other purposes like playing video and such which would be great for family driving/transportation in other markets, like the US. I have seen two different options done by aftermarket people here in the US, both of which would make for a great idea for Tesla to just adopt themselves and then tie it in properly with the software of the car. First: Stick touchscreens and such into the backs of the seats (I really don't like this, as an option, but that is a personal preference). Second: Stick the touchscreen in/on-top of the armrest area. Either way, I would love to see this added, as it makes for an all around better car for rear passengers.
I also agree with the notion of passenger seat memory in driver profiles (or dare I say, have a "passenger" profile). I don't know if the passenger seat is already hooked in with the software of the car, if it isn't then they should make it so, and then provide the software front-end to manipulate it. This isn't just for the China market, because I know of many people in other markets that have complained about passenger seat memory (or lack thereof).
Both of these would be great steps forward all around with adding luxury features to the car. The list is finally starting to get quite short of things they need to add to the car to make it "perfect" since all the great things they have added over just the last 6 months have been an immense improvement. So I anticipate we will eventually see them add these other minor inconveniences and a lot of that will likely be driven by a need to reach a broader audience and increase demand appeal.
Questions for those familiar with the Chinese market:
1. Do all upper class and upper middle class Chinese want to get chauffeured?
2. IMO, Tesla is using a fair pricing policy not only because it makes sense and is good PR, but to appeal more to the middle class, not just the super rich, as the Model S would compare favorably to cars in the same price range. Does a market not exist of middle class Chinese who don't have drivers, but do own their private parking spot?
3. Would autopilot features remove the need for chauffeurs?
1. Do all upper class and upper middle class Chinese want to get chauffeured?
2. IMO, Tesla is using a fair pricing policy not only because it makes sense and is good PR, but to appeal more to the middle class, not just the super rich, as the Model S would compare favorably to cars in the same price range. Does a market not exist of middle class Chinese who don't have drivers, but do own their private parking spot?
3. Would autopilot features remove the need for chauffeurs?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Chickensevil, thanks a lot for your post.
To be honest I never shared too exorbitant expectations for China.
There are quite some small differences in the chinese market that may make a Model S not seem as attractive for a customer in China compared to the States or Europe (some of them are mentioned above). China is a totally different part of the world, different culture, different economy (see all the joint ventures needed for international companies coming to China), different society (state tells you you are only allowed to have one child, you have to pay a fee if you have more children), different kind of censorship for internet (let's not forget, currently 50000 people working every day censoring chinese internet!), ...
I have learned a lot about these small differences by travelling to China
And don't get me wrong, it's a great country and great people, but they have their own culture / habbits (like they can take a nap virtually everywhere (I like that
)).Other car companies put quite a lot of effort (like longer wheelbase) to sell their cars in China, because if you do it right, you can sell a lot of cars there.
Question is:
Should Tesla put as much effort in adepting to the chinese culture or should they push progress of Model X and Model 3?!
My opinion is:
No, they currently got bigger fish to fry (Model X, Model 3).
With start of production of Model S P85D we have seen that changes in manufacturing are always quite a challenge.
Thus Tesla should avoid putting to much energy into big changes for the chinese market right now and do what they can do by improving Model S with small changes, like new rear executive seats, new app and so on!
By the way, I think that in some way a luxury version of Model 3 could fit the chinese market a lot better than Model S!
By the way, same goes for Europe.
In some old european cites there are very small streets.
If the street to your home is too narrow, you simply can't pass with a vehicle, that is too large.
And for some european circumstances the Model S is quite wide
In some basement garages parking lots are not wide enough for a Model S.
Can't do anything about it. Might be a reason why people in Rome for example still like their small FIAT 500
And let's not forget, at the same time Model S is a perfect car and appeals to a lot of people in the States or Europe (see customer satisfaction).
Whithout having any numbers, I would expect Tesla to sell quite some Model S in China, but let me put it that way:
The Model S is developed in the States, it is build in the States, and guess who does it fit best?
I would really worry if the Model S is selling badly in the markets it is really designed for (States, Europe and others), that would be bad news!
I do not wonder that it seems to be a bit more difficult for Tesla to sell a Model S in China than maybe in Silicon Valley
Happy to hear that Model S is selling that good in other countries, that Tesla can globally compensate these small issues in China (see Detroit interview at Bloomberg)!
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'm very interested to hear what TM is doing in China to help get charging set up at owners apartment buildings. Dedicated parking stalls, etc. Tesla helps with outlet installation/instruction, etc
love to hear directly from someone in China
seems to me that once Tesla works out a charging solution at a given high-rise apartment building, the problem is solved for other owners that get a tesla at the same building.
Eventually, apartment buildings will list "car charging" as a feature of their building. Much like swimming pools or gyms.
love to hear directly from someone in China
seems to me that once Tesla works out a charging solution at a given high-rise apartment building, the problem is solved for other owners that get a tesla at the same building.
Eventually, apartment buildings will list "car charging" as a feature of their building. Much like swimming pools or gyms.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Just my 2 cents:
1. Difficult to judge for me, maybe someone else can chime in and provide better input on that question?!
If you are able to pay a driver battleing through the traffic jams during rush hour for you, sure!
Driving by your own car in the big chinese cities like Beijing is no fun, only stressfull and exhausting
2. I thought about fair pricing policy being pos or neg.
To be honest, I could not decide on the effect of fair pricing policy at the time Tesla revealed that pricing strategy for China.
There are some incredible rich and young people in China compared to Europe or the States that simply buy what they want, regardless of price.
And let's not forget german car manufacturers had to pay fees in China some months ago because they charged to much for new car sales and prices of spare parts!
According to parking lots: private parking spots are very rare and very very expensive!
3. This is a crossing in Beijing, and there is almost no traffic might be difficult for autopilot to navigate you that kind of trouble as there as there are no guidelines on the floor of the street. Drives usually visually communicate with each other in such situations. An autopilot would need to have the same capabilities!
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ev-enthusiast thank you for your 2 cents :smile:, some very informative insights there
That traffic intersection is beyond scary, it looks like pure chaos. I have trouble accepting that it is for real, as it is not so difficult to regulate traffic, although I can not see traffic lights, but it could be that the traffic lights just malfunctioned
1) Chauffeurs are very very common in HK and China. The main reason being it may be difficult to find parking, so it's much more efficient to have someone drive you, drop you off, and they will go find parking and you can go about doing your business.
2) AutoPilot in HK/China? HK I think may be banning the AutoPilot features. China...even if they allow it, no way it will work within the city.
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Looks like the total imports for China were 4800 in 2014. That means that there were approximately 456 cars imported in December.
Looks like the total imports for China were 4800 in 2014. That means that there were approximately 456 cars imported in December.
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