Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[juliusa]

The problem with batteries they are still relatively expensive. Having enough battery capacity for summer to winter operation is a big problem.

That makes sense. The claim that solar+battery is cheaper than NG may be true on a per kWh basis, but it is not really an equivalent comparison. If you need to provide the kWh when they are needed throughout the year, the economics are different.

I know that large scale systems are better but it's still at best about 50 % less in winter than in summer.

That makes a lot of sense too. The solar+battery would have to be sized to have ample capacity in winter months - not average throughout the year. Enough solar to meet the winter demand, and enough battery to handle unusual stretches of bad weather/no sun. I don't see any way it would be practical to have enough battery storage to save up during the summer for use in the winter at current battery prices.

My guess is that while solar+battery may be cheaper than NG to produce an annual mWh need, when solar+battery is sized to meet the timing of the demand requirement it is probably still more costly than a NG plant that meets the same demand requirement.

I get that large grids help lower the storage requirements, but they are not inexpensive to build and operate. Diverse renewable sources (solar, wind, hydro) also help when averaging supply capacity since it can be windy/cloudy or sunny/calm.

Anyway, thanks for your comment - it answered my question why we are still building NG plants.

 

[iPlug]

...My solar system averages 8 times more during the summer peak month than the winter.minimum month...

Your panel orientation is probably very far from ideal, and that would be atypical. I live pretty close to you and have suboptimal panel placement, still with 50% better ratio.

A few years ago we added the second part of our PV system which on its own comprises ~1/3 of total output and those panels all point to the NW. The original panels of our system point SW and SE. Despite that, our lowest winter production month is "only" 1/4 of peak late spring/early summer month. Before the second suboptimal panel orientation addition the ratio was 1/3.

Go farther south into the latitudes of southern and central CA, where it rains substantially less in the winter and has more winter irradiance, and the ratio is more like 1/2.

 

[iPlug]

Plenty of land in the SW that can be developed with solar PV that can generate 1/2 the energy in winter compared to the summer. Spread this out over several states with strong interconnects and weather systems wont be a problem.

Build to 2x+ winter needs and let H2 electrolysis and desalination plants absorb excess production for next to nada. Batteries smooth out day to day (night) issues and wont be needed for seasonal issues.

Further upgrades into NW hydro and DC interconnects into Midwest/TX wind and you've got a solid carbon free grid that will handle the future of 100% BEVs and heat pumps.

 

[juliusa]

Plenty of land in the SW that can be developed with solar PV that can generate 1/2 the energy in winter compared to the summer. Spread this out over several states with strong interconnects and weather systems wont be a problem.

Build to 2x+ winter needs and let H2 electrolysis and desalination plants absorb excess production for next to nada. Batteries smooth out day to day (night) issues and wont be needed for seasonal issues.

Further upgrades into NW hydro and DC interconnects into Midwest/TX wind and you've got a solid carbon free grid that will handle the future of 100% BEVs and heat pumps.

Agree completely. This all works and is the right direction.

When you factor in the 2x+ needs, H2 plants, strong interconnects to make it all work, it seems the dollar costs (currently) are higher than adding NG plants.

 

[iPlug]

The externality folks might argue we are there already. Accounting for externalities can be a bit fuzzy because many disagree about the individual values of the many variables. Would argue that even externalities aside, if cost trends continue as they are we may be there in some few years.

One of the problems will be the DC interconnects - those who install generation alone and consumers would benefit, but utilities already in a comfy financial spot may not. IMO DC interconnects should be a public works expense. I heard we are looking to place some workers in new jobs from dying industries.

 

[juliusa]

The externality folks might argue we are there already.

I would. But externality savings don't pay the bills.

The government could even the score with zero-cost legislation. It would subsidize the costs, and pay for those subsidies by cutting government budgets where the externality benefits accrue to the government, and tax the non-government beneficiaries of the externalities.

One of the green think tanks that understands the externalities should draft the legislation - now.

 

[SageBrush]

and DC interconnects into Midwest/TX wind

That is not going to happen anytime soon if at all in texas -- ERCOT is +/- an electrical island*.

Lucky for you guys, NM has wind and is part of the WECC.
I was just looking at a PNM presentation from 2017. It estimated 10 GW of wind potential at 50 meters and ~ sixty cents a watt to build the transmission needed for that 10 GW. That sounds like ~ 0.6 cents a kWh for transmission out of NM -- dirt cheap. The exploitable commercial wind resource of NM is estimated at 1.6 pWh (1.6E15 Wh) a year. For context, the entire US consumed 4 pWh in 2019.

*not an island when they want electricity, an island the rest of the time.

 

[iPlug]

That is not going to happen anytime soon if at all -- ERCOT is +/- an electrical island*.

Lucky for you guys, NM has wind and is part of the WECC.
I was just looking at a PNM presentation from 2017. It estimated 10 GW of wind potential at 50 meters and ~ sixty cents a watt to build the transmission needed for that 10 GW. That sounds like ~ 0.6 cents a kWh for transmission out of NM -- dirt cheap.

*not an island when they want electricity, an island the rest of the time.

Hopefully the improving renewable economics and shifting demographic winds in that state will crack the ERCOT mafia stranglehold.

 

[rays427]

Your panel orientation is probably very far from ideal, and that would be atypical. I live pretty close to you and have suboptimal panel placement, still with 50% better ratio.

A few years ago we added the second part of our PV system which on its own comprises ~1/3 of total output and those panels all point to the NW. The original panels of our system point SW and SE. Despite that, our lowest winter production month is "only" 1/4 of peak late spring/early summer month. Before the second suboptimal panel orientation addition the ratio was 1/3.

Go farther south into the latitudes of southern and central CA, where it rains substantially less in the winter and has more winter irradiance, and the ratio is more like 1/2.

Your right our max to min is much more than normal because of sub optimal position and tree shading. In addition, although we live close to you, we are in the foothills and get a lot more rain which can severely cut our output. Heavy rain has cut our output to a low of 1 kwh. But even the large scale systems in the desert have a ratio of 1/2 and can have a few days with very little output.

 

[iPlug]

Your right our max to min is much more than normal because of sub optimal position and tree shading. In addition, although we live close to you, we are in the foothills and get a lot more rain which can severely cut our output. Heavy rain has cut our output to a low of 1 kwh. But even the large scale systems in the desert have a ratio of 1/2 and can have a few days with very little output.

Our panel size is ~same and I’m up on the Highlands hill. We get plenty of winter rain and had winter days as low as .5kWh.

It’s a problem for us, but distributed systems over the SW states as noted don’t have problems with weather systems over several days.

 

[David_Cary]

Just for another number, My July generation was 1.44 (June 1.42) and my Dec .67 (Jan .76) so just shy of 50%.
This is in NC where humidity is generally higher and rain is generally more plentiful than most/all of CA?
June/July gets a hit from the heat also - of course so does a lot of CA. I have some shading which probably hurts the summer more - large oak tree.
I think I can get closer to 67% if position optimized for winter generation. I was looking into this because that is what I need to be off-grid. I would also probably need a NG furnace - my personal peaker - for Dec/Jan.

I totally get that winter is a problem but it isn't really a problem that Nuclear is optimized for. When everything fossil is shut off for 9 months out of the year and that is with zero NG in houses and zero ICE cars, we can finish off the winter peaker NG plants. This is a few years out....

Does the wind ever stop in the winter in the East coast? Looks like much of the US has windier winters - except CA. So some importation is needed for CA.

 

[SageBrush]

Does the wind ever stop in the winter in the East coast? Looks like much of the US has windier winters - except CA. So some importation is needed for CA.

In a few minutes we are heading out to look at construction of the La Joya Wind Farm, about 60 miles SE of Albuquerque. The adjacent wind farm to La Joya has a PPA with Facebook to supply their NM data centre, and another PPA with ... SCE of Los Angeles.

 

[mspohr]

Scorching Tucson bucks US trend to put climate justice at centre of plans

The action plan is a work in progress, but Romero said key goals would include upgrading city buildings to be 100% powered on renewables, electrifying public transport and investing in long-neglected urban communities to make them healthier, more liveable places, in order to curb urban sprawl, according to Romero, the first woman and first Latina to be elected mayor.

 

[ggies07]

Good job to my home state! /s

Texas earns an ‘F’ in how it teaches students about climate change, groups say

Here is the report and found this part interesting:

Making the Grade?

Interestingly, several of the states earning an A or A- for their standards have economies in which mining and fossil fuel extraction are particularly important: Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota. This fact suggests that even in states in which many jobs and tax dollars are substantially tied to the fossil fuel industry, education policymakers can do a reasonably good job of adopting science standards that reflect the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change and how society can mitigate and adapt to it.

 

[mspohr]

Just for another number, My July generation was 1.44 (June 1.42) and my Dec .67 (Jan .76) so just shy of 50%.
This is in NC where humidity is generally higher and rain is generally more plentiful than most/all of CA?
June/July gets a hit from the heat also - of course so does a lot of CA. I have some shading which probably hurts the summer more - large oak tree.
I think I can get closer to 67% if position optimized for winter generation. I was looking into this because that is what I need to be off-grid. I would also probably need a NG furnace - my personal peaker - for Dec/Jan.

I totally get that winter is a problem but it isn't really a problem that Nuclear is optimized for. When everything fossil is shut off for 9 months out of the year and that is with zero NG in houses and zero ICE cars, we can finish off the winter peaker NG plants. This is a few years out....

Does the wind ever stop in the winter in the East coast? Looks like much of the US has windier winters - except CA. So some importation is needed for CA.

Do you need to be off-grid? The grid is a wonderful asset if you use it to store summer surplus for use in the winter. I build up a healthy credit of kWh which lasts me through most of the winter to run my heat pump hydronic heating, EVs, etc. without resorting to burning NG. We have net metering so it's a 1:1 credit.
Oftentimes, that last few percent of electricity use is very expensive (batteries, etc.) and if you have access to the grid, it can be avoided.

 

[SageBrush]

I build up a healthy credit of kWh which lasts me through most of the winter to run my heat pump hydronic heating, EVs, etc. without resorting to burning NG.

The utility is burning NG for your electricity. The interesting detail is that when the electricity is run through a heat pump, you probably end up consuming less NG than had you burned the NG directly

 

[iPlug]

Do you need to be off-grid? The grid is a wonderful asset if you use it to store summer surplus for use in the winter. I build up a healthy credit of kWh which lasts me through most of the winter to run my heat pump hydronic heating, EVs, etc. without resorting to burning NG. We have net metering so it's a 1:1 credit.
Oftentimes, that last few percent of electricity use is very expensive (batteries, etc.) and if you have access to the grid, it can be avoided.

Who is your utility?

If you are PG&E you are doing really well with grid + heat pumps:

2018 delivered energy sources:

Power mix includes all PG&E-owned generation plus PG&E's power purchases. Data is sourced from PG&E's Power Source Disclosure report, filed in June 2019
Clean energy solutions

PG&E owns California's last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, which will go off-line in a few years (tentatively in 2025), but more renewables and grid battery storage are being added as we speak.

 

[rays427]

Just for another number, My July generation was 1.44 (June 1.42) and my Dec .67 (Jan .76) so just shy of 50%.
This is in NC where humidity is generally higher and rain is generally more plentiful than most/all of CA?
June/July gets a hit from the heat also - of course so does a lot of CA. I have some shading which probably hurts the summer more - large oak tree.
I think I can get closer to 67% if position optimized for winter generation. I was looking into this because that is what I need to be off-grid. I would also probably need a NG furnace - my personal peaker - for Dec/Jan.

I totally get that winter is a problem but it isn't really a problem that Nuclear is optimized for. When everything fossil is shut off for 9 months out of the year and that is with zero NG in houses and zero ICE cars, we can finish off the winter peaker NG plants. This is a few years out....

Does the wind ever stop in the winter in the East coast? Looks like much of the US has windier winters - except CA. So some importation is needed for CA.

Where I live in Northern California we get an average of 55 inches of rain per year. The difference is that it all comes during the winter with almost none in the summer. Our maximum rainfall in the last 22 years I have lived here was 96 inches again all in about 5-6 months. This makes the difference in solar output from winter to summer much greater than most other areas. Most of California gets much less rain but again it all happens in just a few summer months. It also means it doesn't matter how much rain we get it's always very dry towards the end of summer. In fact a wet winter means we get more growth so when it dries out the fire danger is generally worse.

 

[mspohr]

Who is your utility?

If you are PG&E you are doing really well with grid + heat pumps:

2018 delivered energy sources:

Power mix includes all PG&E-owned generation plus PG&E's power purchases. Data is sourced from PG&E's Power Source Disclosure report, filed in June 2019
Clean energy solutions

PG&E owns California's last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, which will go off-line in a few years (tentatively in 2025), but more renewables and grid battery storage are being added as we speak.

I have a small utility on the border with Nevada. It's Liberty Utilities. Their power mix is similar. They purchase a lot of power through NV Energy (no coal). They have several large solar installations in Nevada (about 30% of their demand).

 

[iPlug]

...Most of California gets much less rain but again it all happens in just a few summer months...

Think you meant to say winter months.