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Climate facts to warm to

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by tonybelding, Dec 14, 2007.

  1. clea

    clea Member

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  2. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    BBC News - Virginias dying marshes and climate change denial

     
  3. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic - NYTimes.com

     
  4. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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  5. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    I find his tone sanctimonious and self-serving. He criticizes the IPCCC while pointing out that they are right, and have been, for a precious lost decade. He continues to doubt the causative relationship between global warming and extreme weather events, even though a strong consensus of other researchers now see that causality. This will be, no doubt, his next brilliant revelation, in another few years, after he buys more time for the oil and coal industry with his "skepticism."

    Now he just needs to convince his benefactor to change their minds and do something positive, instead of ripping us all to shreds.
     
  6. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    Arctic sea ice has broken a new low record. Basically in the last 40 years the summer ice pack used to be the size of the continental USA and now more than half of it has melted away. That is a lot of melting ice.

    Figure3.png

    So it is likely most of us will live to see an ice free arctic.
     
  7. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    must underline that.

    While there are different methods employed to determine "arctic ice extent" they all measure ice area. Measuring ice thickness in combination with extend gives a number for arctic ice volume. Since the ice has thinned in most areas, the decline in volume is even more drastic.

    There used to be decade old layers of arctic ice. Today 2/3 of ice are younger than 1 year. You can see that from the image below, where winter ice extend is ~15m square km. The remaining 1/3 is few years old and thinning. My conclusion is, it won't take another 33 years for the minimum to reach zero. If I add a 3rd grade polynomial trend line to the ice area extend curve posted by Dave, the curve hits zero in year 2024 -- but that's of course a completely bogus thing to do :frown:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. clea

    clea Member

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  9. eledille

    eledille TMS 85 owner :)

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    Humorous look at the climate negotiations

    [video]http://www.dbtv.no/?vid=2014463357001[/video]
     
  10. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    #191 VolkerP, Feb 10, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2014
    time to revive this thread.

    Southern UK suffers the wettest January of all times (weather records reach back to 1766). Denizens furious on the Govt's proposed solution to abandon parts of the counties Cornwall, Devon, and Somerset. Scientists link the unusual rainfall pattern to "above-average ocean surface temperatures" in Asia (we are one world, aren't we?)
    media.media.4ced373b-270e-4934-910c-80d7c64d4c0c.normalized.jpeg

    Heavy snowfalls (amount of January within 3 days) bring trouble to southern parts of Austria. Army called in to clear the roofs of public buildings. Roads closed, rail tracks blocked by trees that crushed under heavy snow.
    oesterreich190~_v-modPremiumHalb.jpg

    Rain turning into ice disrupted the electric grid in Slowenia
    slovenia.jpg

    In Italy, Rome and Pisa encounter worst flooding since decades
    italien-flut102~_v-teaserM.jpg

    Monster waves crush the Spanish coast, destroying shorelines and buildings. People got dragged into the sea to be never found again.
    media.media.2384bb03-01ec-49fb-b713-74835cf6fed1.normalized.jpeg

    The European Parliament has pledged to the European Commission to go for stronger emission reduction targets. Up it from 30% to 40% until 2030. Politicians still hope to negotiate their way out of climate change.

    To me, this winter in Europe is a wake up call.
     
  11. pbleic

    pbleic Member

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    Seriously? Extreme weather has been around forever, and is not statistically increasing. Some examples below. BTW, I suggest that everyone concerned about Global Warming read this article recently published in Nature Climate Science - a prestigious journal. It is eye opening. Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years


    Nashua, NH 1936
    mar1936a.jpg

    Paduca Flood, Ohio River 1937
    00-05017T.jpg

    The Great Storm of 1777: That winter had already been a snowy one, with reports of five feet (1.5 m) of snow already on the ground when the Great Snow began. Three or four more feet (91.4 or 122 cm) were added to that total, with drifts reportedly reaching 25 feet (7.6 m), burying entire houses or forcing people to exit from second story windows
     
  12. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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  13. pbleic

    pbleic Member

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    @gg_got_a_tesla I have a very substantial knowledge of the facts, in great scientific detail. Read the article I posted.
     
  14. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    My point is not extreme weather like in "we are without power for a few weeks and get wet feet". My point is about areas becoming inhabitable. If you don't think climate change is happening, would you offer shelter to those displaced by these events? If you are right, it will be only a small number of people, repetition unlikely.
     
  15. tigerade

    tigerade Member

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    Extreme weather has been around forever. I noticed one of that one of the authors of the study you just cited was Francis Zwiers. Here's the Congressional testimony on the issue from Zwiers, I think he explains it far better than I could:



    Good study but I think you are drawing the wrong conclusions.

    Gavin Schmidt explains how climate models have been developed:
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_04/

    In the study you cited, the authors aknowledge that there were some variables that may not have been taken in account:

    And then concluded:
    Just because the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) failed to accurately predict the rate of global warming (of surface temperature) does not mean that global warming has not happened or is not happening, it's just that average surface temperatures are rising at a slower rate than CMIP5 predicted.

    And why all the fuss about surface temperature anyway? A vast majority of warming is occurring in the oceans:

    What has global warming done since 1998?

    Nuccitelli_Fig1.jpg
     
  16. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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