Could Taycan, Mustang-e, Rivian etc. hurt Tesla in a way you wouldn't think

[mswlogo]

Elon has always been right that he sees competition a good thing. If all cars were EV and Tesla had 10% of that slice, Tesla would be ramping up production for the next decade to keep up (88 million cars sold per year globally).

There was some discussion in another thread about Electrify America roll out in that they already have 50% of the number of locations. I did a little digging and noticed that they may have close to 50% locations. But they have 10% the number of DC stalls Tesla has.

1) Electrify America is way behind on capacity.

2) I don't know how this works but Electrify America rates look really high. See photo below.

3) New cars coming online have less range and less efficiency than Tesla's have. Where I live 300 wh/mi equates to about 32 mpg. It is much better in other parts of the country with cheap Electricity, but many parts have rates as high as I do and higher ($0.26 kWh).

Most of the public really have no idea what "EV" is. When these new cars come on line there is gonna be a rude awakening. There won't be enough chargers and it's gonna be more expensive than running a Tesla. What may happen is EV starts to earn a bad reputation with the general public and the attractiveness of any EV goes down with it.

 

[jerry33]

Android and it's malware issues didn't hurt the iPhone any.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Unclear of the point you are trying to make.

Currently the third-party charging networks appear very expensive compared to Tesla's Supercharger network, and increase the value of that asset.

When doing road trips in our Tesla, I don't see non-Tesla BEVs doing road trips. I only ever see non-Tesla BEVs around the suburbs.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon has always been right that he sees competition a good thing. If all cars were EV and Tesla had 10% of that slice, Tesla would be ramping up production for the next decade to keep up (88 million cars sold per year globally).

There was some discussion in another thread about Electrify America roll out in that they already have 50% of the number of locations. I did a little digging and noticed that they may have close to 50% locations. But they have 10% the number of DC stalls Tesla has.

1) Electrify America is way behind on capacity.

2) I don't know how this works but Electrify America rates look really high. See photo below.

3) New cars coming online have less range and less efficiency than Tesla's have. Where I live 300 wh/mi equates to about 32 mpg. It is much better in other parts of the country with cheap Electricity, but many parts have rates as high as I do and higher ($0.26 kWh).

Most of the public really have no idea what "EV" is. When these new cars come on line there is gonna be a rude awakening. There won't be enough chargers and it's gonna be more expensive than running a Tesla. What may happen is EV starts to earn a bad reputation with the general public and the attractiveness of any EV goes down with it.

Your info is sound, but I don’t agree with the conclusion. What this does is make Tesla look like the only EV to buy.

 

[Cycle11111]

I don’t agree with your conclusions. EVGo is adding Tesla connectors to their network which I love in the absence of a CCS adaptor. Demand will drive deployment by non Tesla charging networks and EV availability will drive charger network deployment. As the new EVs come online more and more Electify will see more and more demand and either they will build out or ChargePoint etc. Until this year except Tesla there was legitimately only the Bolt that could road trip and that was painful due to 50kw charging max and 238 mile range - I know I had a Bolt and did it. So classic chicken and egg and I think both are on the plate now or at least being delivered.

 

[ellett]

The more automakers that start selling EVs, the more the idea of "EV" is legitimized, and I think most people will be happy with a shorter range car so long as they can charge overnight in their garage. I had a Fiat 500e for three years prior to my M3 and it was a great little car for 95% of our driving. We used it for everything except road trips.

 

[Eno Deb]

There was some discussion in another thread about Electrify America roll out in that they already have 50% of the number of locations. I did a little digging and noticed that they may have close to 50% locations. But they have 10% the number of DC stalls Tesla has.

1) Electrify America is way behind on capacity.

I think this is already where your argument is flawed. EA currently does not need the same total capacity as Tesla, since there are nowhere near the same number of CCS cars on the roads as Teslas. Here in CA the EA chargers are currently mostly idle, while the Tesla chargers are often overcrowded. In the first phase of their build-out EA focused on deploying enough locations so that road-trips become feasible for most of the country. The number of chargers per location can be expanded later as demand increases. Tesla did the same thing. And other charging providers such as EVGo and Chargepoint will also follow the demand.

2) I don't know how this works but Electrify America rates look really high. See photo below.

Most car vendors plan to sell their cars with a charging plan that has lower rates (or other discount like two years free charging or similar). That is their equivalent of cross-subsidizing the charging prices like Tesla does.

 

[jboy210]

I don’t agree with your conclusions. EVGo is adding Tesla connectors to their network which I love in the absence of a CCS adaptor. Demand will drive deployment by non Tesla charging networks and EV availability will drive charger network deployment. As the new EVs come online more and more Electify will see more and more demand and either they will build out or ChargePoint etc. Until this year except Tesla there was legitimately only the Bolt that could road trip and that was painful due to 50kw charging max and 238 mile range - I know I had a Bolt and did it. So classic chicken and egg and I think both are on the plate now or at least being delivered.

My understanding is EV Go is adding Tesla's Chademo adapter to some of their Chademo chargers. So any Tesla using them will experience the slow Chademo charging speed you mention.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

The more automakers that start selling EVs, the more the idea of "EV" is legitimized, and I think most people will be happy with a shorter range car so long as they can charge overnight in their garage. I had a Fiat 500e for three years prior to my M3 and it was a great little car for 95% of our driving. We used it for everything except road trips.

The problem with that statement is the cost-value equation.

People seem to be willing to pay around US$10K for that kind of "commuter range" vehicle, but the manufacturers' cost basis means they really currently can't sell them much below $30K.

 

[Kandiru]

Most of the badge polishers who get one will wish they hadn't after their first few charging experiences, on the highly unpredictable non-Tesla networks. As an owner of a ChadeMo adapter I have not once fallen into this trap, finding ChargePoint and EvGo stations at levels below advertised with many, also Level 2 destination chargers, either broken or dangerous to use with wires sticking out from worn out cable insulation.

It is sad to see how little understanding there is, the herd instinct is so strong, I personally know two people who wanted EVs but settled for Prii as "the technology is too new". Big Oil's spin doctors are hard at work every day trying to discredit Tesla.