CPO prices after the Model 3 and the loss of the federal tax credit?

[ByranS]

I'm wondering what will happen to Model S CPO prices this year. Specifically - how (if at all) will the loss of the federal tax credit alter the CPO market? With out of pocket prices going up, will there be more in the market for a CPO? Thus driving up prices?

Or maybe the Model 3 will suck up all of those who are stretching their finances for the S, and maybe drive the CPO prices down.

Or maybe I have no idea but it would be fun to hear other opinions

 

[jsmay311]

You've got the right idea on both fronts.

An effective $7500 price increase of a new Model S would naturally be expected to increase the value of a CPO Model S.

And the sudden mass availability of a high-volume, significantly-less-expensive, desireable(hopefully) Tesla sedan would be expected to decrease demand for CPO Model S's, and hence lower their value.
And you could also make the case that flooding the streets with Model 3's might worsen Supercharger and Service Center availability, which could also drive down Model S value.

Exactly how those counteracting forces play out is anyone's guess.

 

[hmmm]

I'll be in the market for a cpo in 18mo so my timeline is slightly longer and i am totally biased. My "hope" is that AP1 cars will have tanked in value by then, esp comed ones because they will be so 2016...On the supply side, there should be a spike in inventory due to the "end of q3 2016 firesale 2yr leases" that will end by then. On the demand side, free supercharging may still draw people in and they may be an inflow of ex-m3 hopefuls, but hopefully things will work out...