Crazy low residuals?

[WannabeOwner]

Just imagine if you're still thinking that at 500,000 miles

By then (in my pipe dreams) it will be possible to redeploy the battery as Static Storage. So if the car (body etc.) is knackered and interior warn out, and screen etc. on-the-blink then it might make an acceptable 2nd-use as a house battery. 70kW - even if only, say, 50kW still usable by then - would be an enormous house battery. Maybe you'd become the provider for the whole street, and make 10% on everyone's electricity consumption ...

 

[MrBadger]

By then (in my pipe dreams) it will be possible to redeploy the battery as Static Storage. So if the car (body etc.) is knackered and interior warn out, and screen etc. on-the-blink then it might make an acceptable 2nd-use as a house battery. 70kW - even if only, say, 50kW still usable by then - would be an enormous house battery. Maybe you'd become the provider for the whole street, and make 10% on everyone's electricity consumption ...

It wouldn't surprise me if ultimately, second hand values have a floor set by the value of battery technology at that time. Whilst similar is sort of true with ICE, most will be close to £0 scrap value for most cars unless you decide to break yourself. I think with EV's, the battery will be more valuable as a relatively easily recoverable (either as cells or raw materials) source of value, so that will effectively give decent value to many scrap EV's.

Several 'home' batteries already claim to use recycled EV battery components yet even after taking into account remanufacturing costs, are still relatively expensive for what in EV terms, is a small capacity. If you could recover say 50kWh worth of battery storage from a scrap EV battery, that's still a nice number of decently sized home batteries that would still sell for a non trivial amount of money.

 

[MrT3]

If it’s still moving and has reasonable battery capacity, why not?

I’d do the same with an ICE with many more serviceable parts.

The difference is an ICE engine or transmission can 9 times out of 10 be repaired for a fraction of the cost for an entire new unit. That’s not really the case with a Tesla battery pack that is glued together and almost impossible to repair.

 

[kelvin 660]

Let's look at this realistically. We are in a cost of living crisis, mortgages and rents are rising and money is in short supply for most people...

Firstly, you'll need somewhere to charge your car, plus £1K for a charger, before you can really think about getting an EV.
Next, there is the expensive traction battery with the warranty clock ticking. Will anyone buy a car when the battery could just fail one day, without some form of warranty cover or cheap exchange program?
Then, there are the car tax & congestion incentives that are going away shortly, and even talk of a 6p/mile EV tax...
Also there probably going to be a high cost to repair the car outside of warranty.
And lastly, high insurance costs, especially for younger drivers, tend to offset any potential fuel savings from owning an EV.

Therefore, it's no wonder used EV prices are dropping!

 

[doats1]

The difference is an ICE engine or transmission can 9 times out of 10 be repaired for a fraction of the cost for an entire new unit. That’s not really the case with a Tesla battery pack that is glued together and almost impossible to repair.

Fewer parts mean fewer things likely to go wrong. There’s also nothing to suggest that a battery pack is as likely to need repair than a transmission.

Like other cars, parts will need changing at various points, but that’s not a reason to throw a whole car away!

If the car can go the distance then I’m happy to keep it for as long as it will run.

 

[WannabeOwner]

the battery will be more valuable as a relatively easily recoverable (either as cells or raw materials)

I read an article where JB Straubel said that over 99% of battery metal will be recoverable

Whereas ICE (assuming it lives a long mileage life) will use around 20 tonnes of refined fossil fuel, which is quite a lot of "Mining" of course.

 

[Durzel]

I think it is fair to point out the cost of replacing the HV battery as something you might potentially face. There have been numerous stories of people's cars developing failed battery packs, even only a few months into ownership. Granted you only hear about negative experiences generally on forums, etc but I'd still say it's a reasonable fear to have.

I don't know the cost of a out of warranty battery pack replacement on a 3/Y but I would presume it to be in excess of £12k. That is a lot of money to find, especially if you're just leasing the car to begin with (so you might have never had that sort of money lying around).

With an ICE car engines, gearboxes, other big ticket items, etc can be sourced from breakers at a fraction of that cost. So yeah it's fair to say there's less that can go wrong with an EV in terms of parts, but the things that can go wrong are not cheap or easy to fix.

 

[WannabeOwner]

There have been numerous stories of people's cars developing failed battery packs, even only a few months into ownership

I wonder if such faults are more likely to come to light early on? i.e. if the battery doesn't have problems for first 50K is it then unlikely to have problems for next 150K? e.g. manufacturing tolerances a bit too tight, and a short develops fairly early on. Maybe "we just don't know yet"

Also what the prospect is for repair - replace a cell (by a company that specialises in that, whereas Tesla more likely to replace the whole pack. I have no idea on that front but I have seen YouTubes of repairs to EV batteries (can't remember the brand, Leaf I think) and it was pretty straightforward (to someone who knew what they were doing and had a decent pair of Marigolds!). Although I noted the earlier comment - which might make repair tricky for Tesla batteries

That’s not really the case with a Tesla battery pack that is glued together and almost impossible to repair.

 

[Rooster6655]

Also what the prospect is for repair - replace a cell (by a company that specialises in that, whereas Tesla more likely to replace the whole pack. I have no idea on that front but I have seen YouTubes of repairs to EV batteries (can't remember the brand, Leaf I think) and it was pretty straightforward (to someone who knew what they were doing and had a decent pair of Marigolds!). Although I noted the earlier comment - which might make repair tricky for Tesla batteries

Yes I think that is the case but I read somewhere about the Structural Battery Pack not being repairable which is concerning for those that end up with one of these batteries (don't know which at present)

"Sandy Munro says Tesla's Model Y battery pack has 'zero repairability,' so a minor collision can junk the car."

Auto expert says Tesla's Model Y battery pack has 'zero repairability,' so a minor collision can junk the car

EV batteries bring all sorts of challenges when they get damaged after accidents. One expert says Tesla customers are especially at risk.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[MrT3]

Yes I think that is the case but I read somewhere about the Structural Battery Pack not being repairable which is concerning for those that end up with one of these batteries (don't know which at present)

Even non structural packs (LR and P) are all glued together and would not be easy to repair.

 

[Durzel]

Is it not the case that the packs are "balanced", so if you get defective cells it basically throws the whole pack out of whack and cripples it?

I'm not aware of specialists in the UK that deal with replacing banks of cells to get packs working again. Realistically most of us - I would assume - would need to go to Tesla for this sort of thing, and get a refurbished pack for however much.

Ultimately you'd be spending £12k+ just to make your car sellable as anything beyond scrap value, and it's debatable whether you would also not lose money even then. How many people might be put off by the thought of a refurbished pack, even if it is perfectly servicable?

I'd be lying if I said this wasn't a concern.

 

[doats1]

If the idea that it's too risky to hold onto an EV for as long as an ICE vehicle because parts that do go wrong are more expensive to fix sticks, then it will only damage the future of mass EV adoption IMO.

That being said, it's more common these days to change a car within 4 years anyway, so not sure it will change much in that sense.

I'd imagine the people likely to keep any car for 4+ years are the people likely to take risks with DIY projects; I don't think that will be different for EV's. I think that's where we'll see people on the market for used battery packs/modules and just doing it themselves. Then sooner or later the aftermarket will grow with demand.

I hope so, anyway.

 

[Utumno]

Looks like the demand for EVs is slowing faster than predictions from the traditional manufacturers.

VW EV production

It does seem like there’s atill a limited audience and hence demand for EVs - whether new or secondhand.

I think Volkswagen’s evil reputation for customer service and crappy software is limiting the market for its offerings.

 

[ACarneiro]

Yes I think that is the case but I read somewhere about the Structural Battery Pack not being repairable which is concerning for those that end up with one of these batteries

This seems insane!
So if a battery pack fails under warranty on one of these they just give you a whole new car?!
And junk the old one?
So much for “transitioning to a sustainable transport model”….

 

[MrBadger]

I'm not entirely sure that structural battery pack is actually immoveable. My understanding, based on a quick peruse of an article so may be wrong, is that whilst it forms part of the structure of the car, it can still be swapped out and replaced. A bit like a frame of a building, where you can remove a defective part of the frame, a replace with a new frame. The frame is structural, but still replacable.

iirc the structural battery pack forms part of the floor which things like seats etc bolt on to. Prior to that, I had envisioned that it was effectively batteries within solid crossmembers etc, but its not. Its a large part of the floor that is now part of the main structure of the body where as non structural battery pack, the body was structural in its own right.

 

[ACarneiro]

I'm not entirely sure that structural battery pack is actually immoveable. My understanding, based on a quick peruse of an article so may be wrong, is that whilst it forms part of the structure of the car, it can still be swapped out and replaced. A bit like a frame of a building, where you can remove a defective part of the frame, a replace with a new frame. The frame is structural, but still replacable.

iirc the structural battery pack forms part of the floor which things like seats etc bolt on to. Prior to that, I had envisioned that it was effectively batteries within solid crossmembers etc, but its not. Its a large part of the floor that is now part of the main structure of the body where as non structural battery pack, the body was structural in its own right.

That’s very interesting, makes perfect sense and seems a lot more plausible. Thank you

 

[WannabeOwner]

Realistically most of us - I would assume - would need to go to Tesla for this sort of thing, and get a refurbished pack for however much.

No help "today", but once there is demand then industries will spring up (notwithstanding that Tesla specifically may have made repair difficult)

Watching Bjorn's videos (for anyone not familiar he's in Norway where 95+% of new cars are EV) its pleasantly surprising what sort of EV-related services are being offered by independents

Supply-and-Demand I suppose, UK aint there yet, but if you choose to keep your car then by then perhaps it will be?

 

[Exy1]

I'm not entirely sure that structural battery pack is actually immoveable. My understanding, based on a quick peruse of an article so may be wrong, is that whilst it forms part of the structure of the car, it can still be swapped out and replaced. A bit like a frame of a building, where you can remove a defective part of the frame, a replace with a new frame. The frame is structural, but still replacable.

iirc the structural battery pack forms part of the floor which things like seats etc bolt on to. Prior to that, I had envisioned that it was effectively batteries within solid crossmembers etc, but its not. Its a large part of the floor that is now part of the main structure of the body where as non structural battery pack, the body was structural in its own right.

There are quite a few motorbikes where the engine forms a structural part of the vehicle, no problems swapping the engine out.

I have no doubt some cottage industry will spring up to remove/replace the few defective cells to match the rest of the pack, all that is required is a need.

Imagine the insurance costs once the insurance companies realise a damaged battery pack writes a car off, err, hang on.

 

[pdk42]

Let's look at this realistically. We are in a cost of living crisis, mortgages and rents are rising and money is in short supply for most people...

Firstly, you'll need somewhere to charge your car, plus £1K for a charger, before you can really think about getting an EV.
Next, there is the expensive traction battery with the warranty clock ticking. Will anyone buy a car when the battery could just fail one day, without some form of warranty cover or cheap exchange program?
Then, there are the car tax & congestion incentives that are going away shortly, and even talk of a 6p/mile EV tax...
Also there probably going to be a high cost to repair the car outside of warranty.
And lastly, high insurance costs, especially for younger drivers, tend to offset any potential fuel savings from owning an EV.

Therefore, it's no wonder used EV prices are dropping!

This is a good summary. EVs are looking like a poor option for private buyers. Nearly all the tax incentives for them are gone, or will go soon, and the public charging infrastructure is still inadequate. The only real area of growth in EVs now is business users where the 2% BIK is a big draw. Without that, EVs would be as hard to sell as sun cream in Siberia.

In fact, I’m increasingly of the view that EVs might not be the dominant form of personal transport in 10 years that many thought they would be back in the early days. Biofuels are getting big investment now and I think they could offer a better option than EVs, if only because the CO2 from EV manufacture is still much higher than for ICE, and that’s ignoring the environmental and community damage caused by Lithium mining.

 

[qwickshot]

Even if your ICE car is powered by CO2 neutral fuel, you’ll still not be able to drive it in the ever expanding clean air zones.

It’s producing Nox and all the other harmful emissions.