Current Delivery Times

[Arkbird]

As far as I understand it, Shanghai will be doing EU exports until the factory in Berlin comes online. Also, I think as the end of quarter push ends this week, we may see more uniform distribution of cars after that's over. Seems the last little bit they've been focusing on West Coast.

EDIT: Tesla's Shanghai factory exports 8,210 Model Y cars to Europe in July - Global Times

Isn't Berlin coming online in the next month or so? Wish Giga Texas would so I could get my order faster even though it would come from Fremont.

 

[boingolover]

Isn't Berlin coming online in the next month or so? Wish Giga Texas would so I could get my order faster even though it would come from Fremont.

I'm guessing it's about "two weeks"

 

[samori01]

Another middle-Tennessean! Hello from Brentwood!

HEY! Our ODs are a day apart...we may see each other whenever delivery day comes!

 

[samori01]

Alright folks, the missus has been out and about in the recent days so I've been bored. Decided to crunch the numbers on the pace of this thread's activity since its inception on April 6th.

Takeaways: Our volume seems to have overall increased slightly but a much smaller peak on VIN day in Q3 compared to the beast that was Q2. May 25th was insane...1074 posts! Over this thread's lifetime we're averaging 209 posts per day which spans about 10 pages per day. As each week progresses, we do less work and post here more often. Weekends are slower.

Why'd I do this? I'm a nerd. Also, awhile ago I made a random stab at what page we'd be on come my delivery (hence the page 4000 in my signature). I decided to see if I could get a more "scientific" estimate from the data. Linear seems an okay fit on average, so I went with it. Nothing else came close without overfitting. Given my current EDD my new guess is page 2777 purely based on a visual look at the plot and I like all the sevens.

Full spreadsheet is in the second tab in my EDD spreadsheet (also linked in my signature). I may or may not update it. Depends how bored I am.

Enjoy.
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This. Is. Awesome!

 

[GuardianMoon]

This was exactly my experience. I checked my EDD several times per day and tracked all of the changes, only to ultimately have my car delivered in September which was the initial estimate from Tesla the day we ordered.

My car was originally estimated for an September delivery but my EDD has been firmly in 10/17-11/6 for a month now

 

[samori01]

When looking for accessories, please stay away from the-evshop.com. Or go on there to find something you like and then search for it anywhere else. Their prices are sometimes more than double the price on other platforms.

 

[BTVev]

We have identified a few trends in this thread that may be helpful to you:

1) The initial delivery estimate that Tesla had on the build page the day you placed your order seems to be reliable. I ordered 7/7, Tesla’s estimate at the time was “September” and I took delivery on 9/22, so they were correct in my case. My brother in-law ordered 7/25 (using the same delivery center) and the estimate by that point was already November. He is still vinless and waiting

2) Geographic region does matter. I’m assuming you’re in FL from your title? If so, we’ve typically seen the East Coast get a bunch of deliveries during the second month of the quarter, so I’d guess November again

3) Some colors and features seem to be more rare. Red and MSM appear to be produced very infrequently. Also, white interior appear to be a bit slower than black and 7 seaters seem to take forever. If you want to share your build details, I’m sure there’s at least someone on here who has a similar build and can share their experience. If nothing else, you’ll feel like you’re not the only one.

4) The date when your profile was totally completed seems to be your “official” order date. If you’ve made any changes to the initial order, that can reset your place in the queue. “Changes” include any of the build specs, and also adding/removing a trade vehicle.

This thread is full of knowledge and it’s really like a little community. It’s fun to make “friends” with users you get to know and to be able to cheer for them and celebrate when they get their VINs and cars. Our MY is our first Tesla and I learned so much about it from this thread. I also feel like if I was doing a big road trip in the MY, I could say that on here and get tons of recommendations for places to see, eat, and charge from the members, which I think is really cool good luck with your wait!

Cheese & rice, I ordered a MSM 7 seater… that explains my brief jaunt in the land of EDD.

 

[GuardianMoon]

I’m excited for Friday because I’m thinking their Q4 EDDs will start re-estimating when the new month starts…but I’m also dreading it for fear of another Octobergedden like scenario. Especially if it becomes at 2022-agedden

 

[collaGOunltd]

Cheese & rice, I ordered a MSM 7 seater… that explains my brief jaunt in the land of EDD.

The black interior will be your saving grace!!

 

[PatrickTM]

When you took yours off hold, was it for February, March, or April?

I took it off hold on September 18th. A new order that day would have had an estimated March delivery.

Spoke to an SA at a local Tesla store that day as well, and he said the March date is the worst case scenario, depending on how successful Giga Texas ramps up production and other industry shortages. He said it’s possible I may receive the car in January or February, no one knows. I said yup, Jan or Feb works for me, so I’m jumping in!

Know that previously, when I placed the order back in May, I was told to remove hold on November 15th for a December EoQ delivery, or possible January delivery. Oh, how the times have changed.

 

[BTVev]

Alright folks, the missus has been out and about in the recent days so I've been bored. Decided to crunch the numbers on the pace of this thread's activity since its inception on April 6th.

Takeaways: Our volume seems to have overall increased slightly but a much smaller peak on VIN day in Q3 compared to the beast that was Q2. May 25th was insane...1074 posts! Over this thread's lifetime we're averaging 209 posts per day which spans about 10 pages per day. As each week progresses, we do less work and post here more often. Weekends are slower.

Why'd I do this? I'm a nerd. Also, awhile ago I made a random stab at what page we'd be on come my delivery (hence the page 4000 in my signature). I decided to see if I could get a more "scientific" estimate from the data. Linear seems an okay fit on average, so I went with it. Nothing else came close without overfitting. Given my current EDD my new guess is page 2777 purely based on a visual look at the plot and I like all the sevens.

Full spreadsheet is in the second tab in my EDD spreadsheet (also linked in my signature). I may or may not update it. Depends how bored I am.

Enjoy.
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View attachment 715582

This is some grade A content right here… keep the analytics coming! Also, the VINs.

 

[Icebowlpacker]

I think Tesla financing would be the way to go in that regard due to the quickness of their determination. It was nearly instant for us both times (initially the day we ordered and then again after we had our VIN because it expired). Refinancing after delivery would be an option if you could get better terms or have a preferred lender.

In states where Tesla’s cannot be sold, like Wisconsin, you cannot use Tesla financing

 

[PatrickTM]

So what I read from expert analysts on this board: Next month will mostly focus on EU deliveries and maybe US west so for those of us on the east coast with July ODs it will be November. I think it makes sense as EDDs have been pretty much stuck in Nov for many July ODs

Pretty much what @boingolover said. Model Y has never been shipped overseas, just Canada, which from a logistics perspective is treated like the US. Now it’s looking like Model Y never will be shipped overseas, as Giga Shanghai is exporting to Europe until Berlin comes online.

Sometimes people confuse this topic with Model 3 exports, which definitely were shipped to Europe, usually the first month of the quarter. That trend should be slowing down with MIC Model 3 exports and transition to Giga Berlin as well.

 

[collaGOunltd]

In states where Tesla’s cannot be sold, like Wisconsin, you cannot use Tesla financing

I did not know this!

 

[Icebowlpacker]

My car was originally estimated for an September delivery but my EDD has been firmly in 10/17-11/6 for a month now

My order date was 11 days after yours and I have been at 10/27-11/16 for a month solid…

 

[Oldguywaits]

As far as I understand it, Shanghai will be doing EU exports until the factory in Berlin comes online. Also, I think as the end of quarter push ends this week, we may see more uniform distribution of cars after that's over. Seems the last little bit they've been focusing on West Coast.

EDIT: Tesla's Shanghai factory exports 8,210 Model Y cars to Europe in July - Global Times

That’s great update!!! So maybe just maybe July ODs could start moving to being vined in October (fingers crossed)

 

[GuardianMoon]

That’s great update!!! So maybe just maybe July ODs could start moving to being vined in October (fingers crossed)

Fingers crossed! I’m assuming there might be a post EOQ push cool down to give employees a break. It looks like the VINs per week slowed in early July so it’s possible we’ll see a slow down in early October, which might explain why there seem to be so few EDDs in early October.
Of course this is all relatively thin data at a time where the market is not doing anything predictable so

 

[Arkbird]

I took it off hold on September 18th. A new order that day would have had an estimated March delivery.

Spoke to an SA at a local Tesla store that day as well, and he said the March date is the worst case scenario, depending on how successful Giga Texas ramps up production and other industry shortages. He said it’s possible I may receive the car in January or February, no one knows. I said yup, Jan or Feb works for me, so I’m jumping in!

Know that previously, when I placed the order back in May, I was told to remove hold on November 15th for a December EoQ delivery, or possible January delivery. Oh, how the times have changed.

Cheers to hoping Giga Texas comes online sooner to help with these delays!

 

[Arkbird]

I'm guessing it's about "two weeks"

Elon would agree

 

[chand]

That’s great update!!! So maybe just maybe July ODs could start moving to being vined in October (fingers crossed)

I am a bit skeptical about this.

March	30k (161 - 131)
April	22k (183 - 161)
May	9k ( 192-183)
June	37k (229-192)
July	11k (240-229)
August	24k (264-240)
September(9/28)	19k (283-264)

September so far, not even 20k ( 283-264) even if they build 5k in next 2 days, it will just match August numbers.

Overall, Tesla may do well in Q3 considering Shangai taking care of EU demand, but clearly the production did not ramp up in Fremont. Austin could help to some extent but there is huge demand and no one escaping the semiconductor shortage.