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Cybertruck yearly production?
- Thread starter Jomak
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Tesla costs could rise after lithium supply contract amended
https://www.cips.org/A%20North%20American%20lithium%20supplier%20to%20Tesla%20has%20amended%20its%20agreement%20with%20the%20carmaker%20to%20tie%20prices%20of%20the%20mineral%20to%20market%20levels.ashx?width=300&quality=80
www.cips.org
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Musk has said 250k+.
They have a 9k Ton Gigapress which should be capable of producing that many rear ends for the truck (Or a bit more). It will take 6-12 months to get up to that speed and they have another bay for a second 9k Ton press ready to go.
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Doesn’t usually take more than a year for them to ramp up to full capacity.
Likely 10k in 2023, but by middle of 2024 they should be up to full speed. So at least 150k in 2024 and 250k in 2025. Very possibly more in 2025 since they will have a lot of time to upgrade capacity.
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That lithium company has provided 0.0000 lithium to Tesla… why don’t we look at the companies that have actually delivered goods to the brand.
I know I am a share holder in PLL…
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Are we talking about past prices here or possible implications for future prices?
Tesla would not be a very good partner to their resource providers if the expectation was sitting out on insane revenue increases. And it wouldn’t be in the best interests of the industry, because revenue and profits are generally what lead to higher production of commodities and support for industries as a whole. Everything can be renegotiated, and these producers will not have incentive to produce more in the environment you’re describing nor is it how the real world works in my experience.
Arguing this online doesn’t change anything though, we’ll see how it unfolds.
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You’re missing the point… none of the referenced items you shared take affect till 2025 so they have no place in a discussion about products being produced between now and then. If and when these new contracts take affect you have a valid point until then it’s speculation 2+ years out.
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When do you expect Cybertruck production to fully ramp?
Tesla needs to grow production at 50% CAGR, most of the company's output is 2+ years away. Contracts being negotiated right now will have a much bigger impact than what has happened to date, in a few years Tesla needs to produce as many vehicles annually as there are Teslas on the road today.
You can put whatever optimistic spin you want on this, we already know Tesla's management doesn't believe costs are coming down this year.
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During the Q3 call, Tesla management said they expected to keep battery costs to hold roughly $70 per kilowatt hour cell before any incentive. This is less than 3 months ago when they were well aware of the increases in raw materials costs.
Additionally, Tesla management made clear on this last call that Tesla made 4680 cells will qualify for IRA manufacturing incentives which will bring down cell costs under $40/ kWh. At battery day Tesla estimated battery costs would come down 56% due to their improvements. Actual—thanks to IRA incentives—will end up being closer to a 66%-70% reduction.
Hard to overstate how incredibly beneficial the IRA is to Tesla's battery efforts.
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The dynamics of the IRA will mean that producers of domestic components/materials will have increased pricing power as they'll be more sought after by vehicle manufacturers, so we don't really know where it will crunch out. But companies like Piedmont sourcing lithium out of Quebec, they'll be able to sell to the bidder most willing to give up some of their margin in exchange for materials that will help move their vehicles because they'll qualify for the tax credits.
The manufacturing credits will likely end up being mostly offset by higher costs that will then create incentive for more domestic production of these things, I doubt they'll be profit centers but who knows.
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You are scrambling to put a negative spin on this.
I'm sure there will be a premium on eligible minerals. That's part of why I discounted the post-tax credit cost some. If you took their $70/ kWh estimate and applied the full $45/ kWh tax credit, their cost per kWh would be a right about $25/ kWh. I'm sure some of that savings will be gobbled up by more expensive minerals which is why I said $40/ kWh. Maybe half of the credit goes away to higher costs and they only see $22/ kWh, that's still under $50/ kWh and under whatever estimate they made 3 years ago.
Tesla met Panasonic in the middle, it's very likely that's what will happen here. But the more processes they move in house, the fewer companies can add their own "IRA eligible" premium to the mix.
Tesla will be processing lithium themselves. That is a huge part of the cost of lithium. Remember when Musk talked about Lithium refining having software margins? They also make their own cathode material. Each of these steps are places where nobody else can step in and demand a premium for eligible product.
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The profit center for Tesla will come from repairing out of warranty cars. Eventually Tesla will have more used cars out of warranty than new cars in warranty. Tesla is not going to repair out of warranty cars at cost. Tesla charges over 230 dollars an hour for labor. So if it takes them 2 hours to diagnose an issue with an out of warranty that is close to 500 dollars. What is Tesla's cost for parts vs what they charge customers?. How much of a profit does Tesla make on replacing out of warranty HV batteries?
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My purpose in this forum is mostly to give a pessimistic perspective to counter all the unbridled optimism, not sure I'd call this scrambling but sure. I also work as a consultant in resource extraction/mining in Canada, so give whatever weight you want to that.
I have no idea how the $/kWh will crunch out, just engaging in broad speculation about how this will go. This portion of the IRA is mostly about bringing the battery supply chain onto our shores and it's being done with taxpayer money, so I would be conservative about what it will result in for the car manufacturers. The supply chain is not coming out of China and to our shores if it's not highly profitable for the companies.
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If Tesla doesn't need to make money on repairs then why do they have a labor rate of close to 240 dollars an hour. Why is a replacement pack up to 22K. Why is a motor replacement motor 6 to 8k. Electric cars are supposed to be cheaper to run own and maintain than ICE cars Does Tesla still make more in selling ZEV credits than it does selling cars?
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I wouldn’t know what Tesla’s hourly rate is, 2 years in and the only service I needed was for a flat tire and it was free.
You are jamming off a bunch of numbers, but they have no relevance because they lack context.
Tesla seem to last around 250,000-400,000 miles. Roughly the life of most vehicles. Electric motors last decades before they need serviced. There are obviously going to be exceptions, but as a general rule, Teslas don’t need a lot of maintenance.
When a business expects service to be a big part of their revenue stream, they need a lot of service locations. GM has one in every town. I have to drive past 5 GM dealerships to get to the nearest Tesla service center. There are only 2 in our state. This is not how a business that is thinking about service revenue operates. If Tesla’s were high maintenance vehicles, they would quickly run out of locals to buy them because it is a huge inconvenience to get significant services done to them.
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Lifetime pension and insurance is black hole for capital and not sustainable at all.
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