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Cybertruck yearly production?
- Thread starter Jomak
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Six hundred per day is probably padded but a few hundred per day at the end of the first year seems possible. Gotta wonder how fast the IDRA megapress operates. I think they were planning two megapresses initially with another 1 or 2 later. And then there's the question of 4680 cell production.
Gotta hope CT list price comes back closer to pre-covid pricing to put the hurt on Ford and GM EV pickups.
Gotta hope CT list price comes back closer to pre-covid pricing to put the hurt on Ford and GM EV pickups.
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Good luck on CT putting a hurt on anyone. Those brands have people who will stay loyal to it and with the hideous CT design will definitely not be leaving their Silverados or F-150’s. Tesla better think long and hard on how they will present the CT. 0-60 is only going to cut it for the YT and Instagramers
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You can say all you want about brand loyalty, but people vote with pocketbook. If the CT comes in at $59k for a dual motor 300mile range version the other brands are screwed... Margin on the original price CT is estimated at 40% and we know material costs are down to pre 2019 range. I expect Ford, Gm and Rivian to have a very hard time competing as all make under $3k per car at current prices...
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**sigh** Ill repeat it again and again and again. Ford and GM dont rely on EV's for their Bread and Butter. **IF** it's always **IF**. So again, Tesla is going to eat their own Model Y sales in order to make sure no one buys a Ford or GM, cool story.
For Ford, the Lightning falls in line with their Tremor and Raptor Offerings, the price isn't coming down anytime soon. Just like we haven't seen a price drop yet even after Tesla dropped the price of their vehicles.
Yes, people do vote with their pocketbook and the offerings from everyone else a thriving at this moment.
$59k, subpar interior, appalling outside looks, no choice in color, half a steering wheel, Frunk? Yeah, its not a given everyone will want this thing. There will be many on the resell market as soon as they come out, ready to be sold to those who are going to pay $30-$50k over just to make their YT video and say they are the first.
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Tesla would rather sell you a CT than a Y since the margin is higher. I think you are missing the point though... All cars at some point will be mandated electric and the legacy brands have shown they don't want to invest in the tech putting them further behind. So Ford sells 660K F-150's ICE versions a year historically... you don't think 225k CT a year will hurt them? I am not saying all will come from here but a large % will and you are fooling yourself if they are not worried...
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The legacy OEMs have long made very little or zero profit on new car sales, profits mostly come down the line through servicing and maintenance -- this is something Elon has talked about many times.
Zach on the Q4 earnings call very clearly stated that 2023 lithium costs will be higher than those realized in 2022 and there's a lot of uncertainty around other commodities. China's Zero-COVID policy driving down manufacturing output would have had a deflationary effect on commodities, which is now reversing and we're starting to see industrial commodities tick back up. Commodities are all about supply and demand, and new supply doesn't magically appear so much of it ends up modulating with manufacturing. If commodity prices drop, it's likely because there has been a reduction in demand through reduced manufacturing -- this is why copper prices are used as a barometer for economic health nowadays.
But either way commodities futures contracts do not immediately influence costs realized by a manufacturing company because we have no idea how they procure or how the futures prices work their way through the supply chain, again something that Zach touched upon in the Q4 call.
Nickel is still almost double 2019 levels, that's used both in stainless steel and in batteries.
Aluminum is still up 60% from the 2019 average,
Copper was $2.60 in 2019, it's $4.20 right now.
Graphite prices are likely headed way up.
And these prices could be driven upwards merely by starting Cybertruck production, along with more and more EVs of all kinds, which will create more demand for these commodities and increase pricing pressure if supply isn't keeping up.
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I disagree on the commodity side. Where I work buys all these materials and the aggregate costing is lower on all materials. Also Tesla and anyone buying commodities in any volume have fixed pricing for long term contracts. Tesla will not be impacted as they have lengthy contracts in place with all materials vendors. I believe the aluminum contract they have is a 10 year fixed price and same with lithium vendors…
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Tesla is immune to anything else happening in the world, they will somehow pay less than everyone else for stainless steel and aluminum
Tesla doesn’t care about making as much money as they can so they will sell us a wide body 6 ton truck for $39k, below the price of the less sophisticated Model 3
Tesla has told me I don’t need paint on my car, so they will just sell it to me bare metal, and I’m ok with that because ….. it’s innovative
Tesla says I don’t need a full steering wheel, and that’s ok because the car will eventually drive itself
Tesla says we don’t need an instrument cluster behind the steering wheel because the car will drive itself, but they included it in their higher end models, but I am ok with that because it’s the future
Tesla doesn’t care about making as much money as they can so they will sell us a wide body 6 ton truck for $39k, below the price of the less sophisticated Model 3
Tesla has told me I don’t need paint on my car, so they will just sell it to me bare metal, and I’m ok with that because ….. it’s innovative
Tesla says I don’t need a full steering wheel, and that’s ok because the car will eventually drive itself
Tesla says we don’t need an instrument cluster behind the steering wheel because the car will drive itself, but they included it in their higher end models, but I am ok with that because it’s the future
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Have you seen the updated interiors on the CT? Apparently not.
The CT will have an option for regular wheel like the S and X. Also the CT will have a second slim display like the S and X.
Tesla is not immune and shows how little you know about production planning and supply chain management. They don’t decide to start buying when a product is ready for production usually it’s years in advance.
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