On a day when both the DOW and NASDAQ fell more than 2%, TSLA performed about as well as you'd expect for a typical tech stock, losing a little less than 3%. This of course was disappointing as TSLA has been outperforming both the NASDAQ and typical tech stocks. For most the day, TSLA outperformed the broader markets but the final hour and a half were brutal for TSLA as it caught up with other tech-like stocks.
Looking at the daily chart, you can see that TSLA experienced some really high selling per minute in the final hour of trading, suggesting since there was neither news nor large macro movements, someone was going out of their way to push TSLA down. At 2:55pm, over 10K shares sold, at 3.08, over 14K sold and in both these cases we saw icicles as the stock price quickly rebounded. Selling sprees close to close were mostly able to be carried into close as nearly 22K sold at 333pm,: 30k sold at 3:46pm and more than 13K sold at 3:52pm. Who was doing the selling? The moderate 55% of selling by shorts today suggests they were part of the answer, but I suspect parties that sold calls were selling as well. Take a look at the TSLA Open Interest chart for Friday, you can see that at 365 and above, calls greatly exceeded puts, and so the market makers and some individual hedge funds had more to gain from a close near 365 than much above, which is what happened.
Looking at TSLA's volume of 6.3M shares on such a volatile day, it does not appear that much selling by big longs was happening. Nonetheless, the relatively flat trading areas suggest selling as the reason for the flatness, but the relatively moderate short percentage of selling today suggests other players in the selling as well.
The NASDAQ lost more than 2% today, with a fairly steady descent after 11am
Notice the high number of calls expiring at 365 and above today and the high number of puts expiring at 360 and below. Sellers of the puts and calls had a reason to see TSLA close in the 360s.
Shorts were tagged with selling 55.52% of TSLA on Friday, a lower number than one would guess. One possibility is that the shorts have been known to favor non-FINRA-monitored sources of shorting when they wish their actions to be transparent, and so perhaps that explanation is at work.
Where does TSLA go from here? A pessimistic view is that with TSLA near the highs of its recent trading range it is more susceptible to a dip with macros than it was previously, and so some of the selling on Friday could have been de-risking. A more optimistic view would be that between short-selling, macro pressure, and options expiration pressures, we saw an anomaly on Friday and that TSLA will trade better next week. In either event, TSLA does look like it is setting itself up for a breakout by January or early February, and so one could ride out a dip if it occurs (since January will be here in 2 weeks).
For the week, TSLA closed at 365.71, up 7.75 from last week's 357.96. Analyst upgrades to the mid 400s took place this week, which only reinforces the believe of many bulls that the Q4 results will propel TSLA well above previous all time highs. Have a great weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow down 497 (2.02%)
* NASDAQ down 160 (2.26%)
* TSLA 365.71, down 11.08 (2.94%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 51.20, down 1.38 (2.62%)