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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

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On a day when both the DOW and NASDAQ fell more than 2%, TSLA performed about as well as you'd expect for a typical tech stock, losing a little less than 3%. This of course was disappointing as TSLA has been outperforming both the NASDAQ and typical tech stocks. For most the day, TSLA outperformed the broader markets but the final hour and a half were brutal for TSLA as it caught up with other tech-like stocks.

Looking at the daily chart, you can see that TSLA experienced some really high selling per minute in the final hour of trading, suggesting since there was neither news nor large macro movements, someone was going out of their way to push TSLA down. At 2:55pm, over 10K shares sold, at 3.08, over 14K sold and in both these cases we saw icicles as the stock price quickly rebounded. Selling sprees close to close were mostly able to be carried into close as nearly 22K sold at 333pm,: 30k sold at 3:46pm and more than 13K sold at 3:52pm. Who was doing the selling? The moderate 55% of selling by shorts today suggests they were part of the answer, but I suspect parties that sold calls were selling as well. Take a look at the TSLA Open Interest chart for Friday, you can see that at 365 and above, calls greatly exceeded puts, and so the market makers and some individual hedge funds had more to gain from a close near 365 than much above, which is what happened.

Looking at TSLA's volume of 6.3M shares on such a volatile day, it does not appear that much selling by big longs was happening. Nonetheless, the relatively flat trading areas suggest selling as the reason for the flatness, but the relatively moderate short percentage of selling today suggests other players in the selling as well.

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The NASDAQ lost more than 2% today, with a fairly steady descent after 11am


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Notice the high number of calls expiring at 365 and above today and the high number of puts expiring at 360 and below. Sellers of the puts and calls had a reason to see TSLA close in the 360s.

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Shorts were tagged with selling 55.52% of TSLA on Friday, a lower number than one would guess. One possibility is that the shorts have been known to favor non-FINRA-monitored sources of shorting when they wish their actions to be transparent, and so perhaps that explanation is at work.

Where does TSLA go from here? A pessimistic view is that with TSLA near the highs of its recent trading range it is more susceptible to a dip with macros than it was previously, and so some of the selling on Friday could have been de-risking. A more optimistic view would be that between short-selling, macro pressure, and options expiration pressures, we saw an anomaly on Friday and that TSLA will trade better next week. In either event, TSLA does look like it is setting itself up for a breakout by January or early February, and so one could ride out a dip if it occurs (since January will be here in 2 weeks).

For the week, TSLA closed at 365.71, up 7.75 from last week's 357.96. Analyst upgrades to the mid 400s took place this week, which only reinforces the believe of many bulls that the Q4 results will propel TSLA well above previous all time highs. Have a great weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 497 (2.02%)
* NASDAQ down 160 (2.26%)
* TSLA 365.71, down 11.08 (2.94%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 51.20, down 1.38 (2.62%)
 
It's been reported on the market trading thread today, and I find Vicki Salvador's tweets very believable:

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Vicki works in the paint shop, which handles S, 3, & X. This is the second week where 1300/day was reported, but now they're pushing 1400. Granted, it is not likely a pace of the new normal, but if the pace can be sustained for a few weeks it's a pretty incredible pace. If you figure 1000 M3/day = 7K/wk, that leaves nearly 400/day or 2800/wk for S&X, which is likely too high, so perhaps M3 is over 7K/wk at the moment. That would explain why the Tesla team is so busy calling and emailing owners this week about time still remaining to lock in a Model 3 for 2018 delivery.

Such a jump in production suggests efficiency improvements rather than throwing raw labor at the problem, which in turn suggests positive effect upon gross margins.

For this reason, I'm not trying to play any dip that might stem from Friday's down day. It's too risky in my mind, given how soon we're likely going to see a breakout of TSLA. I can be patient for a couple weeks, waiting for real numbers to come forth.
 
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Today was the second big down day in a row for the macros and TSLA as Wall Street worries that the Feds are going ahead with their rate hike on Wednesday. Who knows what the Federal Reserve will do, but looking at oil at less than $50 a barrel, stocks giving up their gains for 2018 in the historically upbeat month of December, and a trade war slowing the worldwide economy, it truly would be bad judgement for the Feds to go ahead and raise rates in December, so I think we have at least a chance of capitulation by the Feds. Inflation is not a threat with such cheap gasoline, and with the stock plunge and trade war, an overheated economy is no threat either in the near term.

In the morning hours when volume was moderate, TSLA fared well. It was only in the afternoon (as usual) when the NASDAQ slipped and volume was low that things got out of hand (as with Friday). I reproduce both the TSLA daily chart and NASDAQ daily chart below in exact same scale to better illustrate the similarities and differences in trading.

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TSLA's daily chart 12/17 shows the 4.73% drop today

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NASDAQ's daily chart 12/17 shows its 2.27% drop

Notice that the NASDAQ managed to climb into the green after 11am and around noon, but TSLA never recovered into the green. One reason was the 10:20ish TSLA dip, which has become quite common lately. The other reason is that TSLA had a very muted climb going into the noon hour, likely a result of short selling (given the nearly 59% of selling the shorts were tagged with today). If you look at the gyrations of the two charts, you can see lots of similarities and yet TSLA lost more than twice as much as the NASDAQ on a % basis today. Other tech stocks did better than TSLA.

I think the reason we are seeing such poor trading of TSLA right now is that it is close enough to the top of its historical trading range that shorts have a strong conviction that TSLA is beginning a long downhill run. Certainly TSLA has historically fallen quickly from such heights before, but there's reason to believe things are different this time and that the other runs above 370 were instances of premature exuberance. The difficult and expensive process of ramping Model 3 production (plus solving transportation issues) has now been successfully completed. Further, look at the unusually light volume (7.7 million) for TSLA on such a volatile day. It was not a case of longs selling so much as a lack of buyers willing to try catching falling knives once the downhill run began and shorts manipulating enough to amplify that fall (dip on steroids). In two more days the Fed question mark will be resolved and the market can begin recovering. Ultimately, the stock needs to recover before the end of the month because January looks just too promising.

Once Q4 results are released, TSLA will show that it has put together two profitable quarters in a row, and new, more conservative investors will begin buying. Until then, the current TSLA investors will hold onto their shares, for the most part, and those that can add will add some prior to the Q4 ER and some before the Q4 Production and Delivery report.

Let's put things into perspective. Take a look at the following two charts for the previous year, with TSLA on top and the NASDAQ below.

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TSLA remains higher than the beginning of the year and is towards the high end of its trading range.

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The NASDAQ is now lower than it began this year and is in the basement of its trading range

TSLA's super-strong performance in the last two months is evident in the yearly chart and the stock is well positioned for a ATH run early in 2019.


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No surprise that nearly 59% of TSLA selling was marked as short today. Shorts can make money by selling on a downhill run and then slowly covering before end of market trading or during the final minute (at which time over 130K shares traded hands).


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Looking at the tech chart, you can see that major dips have occurred at various segments of the slow climb that TSLA is currently in. We'll start a new segment after this dip is completed, and if history repeats itself, we'll close above 379 during at least one trading session in the upcoming segment. The lower bb is at 330 now, providing a safety net in case the macros get really funky this week.

Conditions:
* Dow down 508 (2.11%)
* NASDAQ down 157(2.27%)
* TSLA 348.42, down 17.29 (4.73%)
* TSLA volume 7.7M shares
* Oil 49.24, down 0.96 (1.91%)
* Percent of selling by TSLA shorts: 58.94%
 
Vicky's tweet is very different from Bloomberg's estimate.
Bloomberg - Tesla Tracker
I would expect that Tesla is preparing for Europe, meaning that production numbers should be high. When reading Bloomberg's description I have the impression that they are good at US sales but cars prepared for Europe may be out of their scope. However they can track how many people work in the factory and in how many shifts.
 
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In the chart above, notice how substantial the selling needed to be in order to achieve these dips:
9:36am 39K shares/min
9:37am 30K shares/min
9:38am 30K shares/min
9:42am 41K shares/min
10:21am 56K shares/min
2:48pm 48K shares/min


Today was actually an up day for macros, but the combination of some nonsense analyst news, an executive departure, plus high amounts of astute short-seller manipulations sunk TSLA today. As with the past two difficult trading days, TSLA volume was relatively light, a mere 7.1 million shares, once again indicating that investors are not jumping ship. Rather, new buyers are cautious in this tricky environment.

* The executive departure was a global sales chief who had only been with Tesla for 12 months. It means nothing.
* The analyst notes came from Morgan-Stanley and Goldman-Sachs. Adam Jonas of MS sent a note to clients suggesting caution with Tesla because shares might be priced at an "Emerging Peak". It must have taken some serious time to wordsmith that concoction of syllables. Jonas offered nothing particularly negative about Tesla but instead suggested that Q4 free cash flow might be about $90 million less than the previous quarter's $738 million. He also mentioned concerns about access to China and Europe, but didn't elaborate and that statement by itself doesn't explain anything. Jonas suggests that investors will need more evidence over a longer period of time to conclude that TSLA has indeed transitioned to a status of sustained profitability. My take? I think Jonas's explanation was more an excuse than a reason. He had to come up with something to be negative about Tesla. Why? He mentioned in the note that Tesla really needs to raise $2.5 billion in Q4 in order to make investors comfortable. The game? Morgan Stanley and Goldman-Sachs have been repeatedly used in the past to sell the bond offerings and they make lots of money from them. Selling bonds now would be super-easy too, because they'd need to be sold at higher interest with the Moody's downgrade but buyers know of Tesla's Q3 results and will buy them readily. Elon doesn't want to borrow money now, presumably because the Moody's downgrade makes borrowing more expensive and he likely feels the downgrade was both undeserved and apt to go away some time in the near future. Besides, he has made it clear that he thinks the whole Wall Street-Moody's thing is corrupt and wants as little to do with them as possible. So, Jonas may be giving Tesla some grief because the company hasn't used his company to raise money and he's trying to dip TSLA in order to drive home his point. Jonas reiterated a hold rating and price target of 291.
Meanwhile, David Tamberino of Goldman has zero credibility in the eyes of Tesla regulars, but if he offers his ridiculously low price target on the same day as Morgan Stanley's, Goldman's action either adds a tiny bit to the downward push (because both MS and GS are giving cautionary words about Tesla!!) or at least his zero credibility is at least disguised when TSLA heads down a bit because of the Morgan Stanley note. Sigh.
* Short-sellers used their 61% of TSLA selling well today and got max benefit from it. I've placed identical charts of TSLA (on top) and NASDAQ (on bottom) below for comparison purposes.

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TSLA trading on 12/18

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NASDAQ trading on 12/18

TSLA was trading up in pre-market, but it dipped immediately on opening as the mandatory morning dip set in. One primary purpose of the MMD, I am seeing, is to set TSLA up for a parallel but lower run with the NASDAQ. A secondary dip around 10:30am is standard operating procedure for the shorts and it brought TSLA just that much further below the NASDAQ chart. Both charts peaked a bit after 1pm and then started down. Look, though at the 2:10ish run-up in the NASDAQ that was squashed in TSLA. Similarly, look at the very substantial 3:40ish peak of the NASDAQ that was squashed big-time in TSLA. The old short-seller technique of holding TSLA down when the NASDAQ starts running up and then exaggerating the TSLA dip when the NASDAQ is running downhill worked well today, and TSLA closed more than 3 and a half percent lower than the NASDAQ on very little news of substance.

What we're seeing here is all the usual players coming together now that the NASDAQ has been dipping and working together to get TSLA on a downhill run. It will all be a distant memory once the Q4 ER results are out, but for now there are shorts who neeed to extract themselves, there are unethical Wall Street businesses that want Tesla to do a bond issue before the Moody's upgrade, and there are analysts who want to move money into TSLA after this dip and look like geniuses as TSLA rises after the Q4 ER.

The FUD portion of the scam is coming together too. The new FUD story is that TSLA may dip in 2019 because just look at what it's been doing the past few days? The goal posts are being moved from more than one quarter of profitability to an undetermined number of profitable quarters. Publications such as Barrons have already jumped aboard and it won't be long before Laura and Linette are cranking out stories on the theme, as well. No wonder why someone with a great mind and titanium work ethic like Elon Musk shakes his head whenever he sees the usual suspect gearing up their game again.

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Shorts were tagged with selling 60.8% of TSLA shares today. They needed all these manipulations to pull off their dirty business today.


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Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the second segment of the slow portion of TSLA's climb included a multi-day dip that bounced off the lower bollinger band. We might see something similar tomorrow. Hopefully, the Fed will realize it is absolutely nuts to raise rates in the current environment and will capitulate, but if it does raise rates then that lower bb will come in mighty handy. Notice, too that the other dip off the lower bb transitioned into the climb above 370 we just witnessed and this climb after a bounce would theoretically go higher. The reality check for this theory is that shorts and their allies are now putting on a full-court press against TSLA and that pressure may affect the performance of TSLA in the short run, before substantial good news comes forward. We'll see.

Conditions:
* Dow up 83 (0.35%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.45%)
* TSLA 337.03, down 11.39 (3.27%)
* TSLA volume 7.1M shares
* Oil 49.24, down 0.96 (1.91%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 60.8%
 
Shorts were tagged with selling 60.8% of TSLA shares today. They needed all these manipulations to pull off their dirty business today.

From NASDAQ, today's VWAP was $342.93 during today's main session.

4,217,983 shares (60.8%) were sold short.

That's at least $2,303,593,776.36 ($2.3B) in short selling today.

So MorganStanley wants Tesla to float a $2.5B bond? Shortz floated that much today on spec, and do so nearly every single day in TSLA.

Doesn't Adam Jonas know that Baillie-Gifford has already offered to capitalize any requirements Tesla has to increase production? Look Tesla is NOT going to the markets for cash:


Sheezh, theze boyz r denze. And Jonas knows that. He's just lying to make a quick buck, just like he did in July when he wrote 'Tesla won't maintain 5K Model 3s per week' and 'Model 3 production will still be under 4K/wk in 2019 Q2'.

Of course, Telsa averaged 4.3K/wk in 2018Q3. Where's the SEC? Oh yeah, that's right... Jonas is allowed to lie. And it's YOUR fault if you lose money believing his BS.

Cheers!

*BTW, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was $46.09 at 6:00 pm today.
 
Thanks @Papafox, for your ongoing, outstanding and brillant day to day work here. If I could, you’re posts would get 100 promotions each day.

Especially on a day like this, when everybody loses his head, and negativity is around again (FUDsters doing their usual stuff) I like to log of and let settle things. So it is a relieve, not to wade through the whole day on the TSLA Market Action Thread, and all the „News“ garbage on the Web.

You help us to enjoy our day and get a quick update on what was important.

May the force be with you!
 
This is actually great news that the short interest was so high today. That means the majority of selling wasn’t done by longs, and that these shorts will have to buy back. Makes me feel better.

Just a reminder that short interest and short percentage of selling are two different creatures. Also, 61% of selling tagged as short does not mean that 61% of the selling was by shorts (due to batching, etc.). We look at the percentage of selling by shorts number as a relative number because I've spoken with experts and nobody can tell me what percentage of selling is ACTUALLY attributable to shorts when FINRA data says 61%. Still, it's a useful number for estimating degree of manipulations by shorts.

Regarding the power of the shorts, when good news comes out, and there's no deep dread being felt by the longs, then there's no holding the stock price back, it will go up regardless of the efforts of the shorts. At other times, particularly when trading is in low volume, the shorts can seriously push the stock price down, such as a day like today. Longs have a bit of a dread right now because of macros and the uncertainty of what the Feds will do on Wednesday, and so today was a day ripe for manipulations, particularly with the NASDAQ falling in the afternoon.
 
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TSLA has begun to shake off its funk today. The stock rose above 346 slightly before 2pm today, but news from the Feds sunk the macros and dragged TSLA and everyone else down with it. Tech stocks I follow dropped between 3.1% and 5.8% today, making TSLA a much better performer. The Fed's message contained some bearish news and some dovish news, but overall the market was unhappy and the macros dipped. Notice the dip wasn't a big one for the NASDAQ, though, and so with the uncertainty of the Fed's plans over for the moment there's reason for the market to shake off the gloom.

Notice the extreme icicles located in the red portion of the afternoon's trading. TSLA was trying to run back up but the shorts kept selling to simulate a bearish response to the Fed's announcement.

News today included David Tamberino of Goldman-Sachs circling back for the second day in a row to give TSLA another kick, but judging by this morning's performance, Mr. Tamberino's message was just as meaningless today as it was yesterday.

Looking at TSLA's performance nearing 2pm, and comparing with the negative performance of the NASDAQ at the same time, you have to realize that TSLA is getting ready to outperform the NASDAQ once again. Now add in the effect of more than 2/3rds of all selling being tagged "short" and you realize today was a turnaround day of sorts. Shorts have resorted to near historically-high selling levels in order to keep the downward momentum going, and except for a lucky break from the feds today, they would have lost the bet. Looking forward to tomorrow!

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The NASDAQ closed down 2.17%, with about half the decline taking place after the Feds announced their intentions regarding interest rates.

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Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the lower bollinger band lies just below 326, and if needed it would be a strong support. My guess is that we're not going to need it because considering macros and percentage of selling by shorts today, TSLA is ready to shake off the red and start positioning itself for the first week of January P&D report numbers.

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Should we get discouraged because TSLA just had 3 or 4 bad days in a row? Check out this chart from 2013 and notice the extent of the dips taking place in February and March, right before TSLA began the greatest climb of its history. Some technical traders have been expecting a dip similar to today's as a prelude to the next TSLA breakout.

Conditions:
* Dow down 352 (1.49%)
* NASDAQ down 147 (2.17%)
* TSLA 332.97, down 4.06 (1.20%)
* TSLA volume 8.3M shares
* Oil 47.07, down 1.01 (2.28%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 67.74%
 
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Today was quite a surprise to me. I'm still unsure why TSLA traded so far below the NASDAQ's performance today, particularly when you consider TSLA's relative strength just the day before. Once TSLA starts one of these deep dips along with the broader markets, it needs to hit bottom and rebound. This is a stock that can run uphill after a rebound as fast as it goes downhill. The problem right now is that we need to define the bottom. Once there, shorts start covering to take advantage of the dip and longs jump in.

Unfortunately, Powell's performance on Wednesday with the Fed has left many of us feeling that we have a tone-deaf dingbat running the Fed, and that's not a pleasant thought. The good news is that we're close to Powell's goal for interest rates, and so the market can recover, but the bad news is that many TSLA investors have developed some dread of macros after watching the Fed's performance, and that dread can in turn allow the shorts to be more successful with their manipulations. The good news is that TSLA is on sale at bargain prices right now compared to where analysts said last week it is going within the next 12 months, so let's hope the rebound is a big one when it comes.

Here are a few competing ideas for today's dismal performance by TSLA:

* Short-selling might have been heavier than the 55.32% that we saw today, because shorts could have moved a fair portion of their activity to non-FINRA-monitored exchanges in order to avoid drawing attention with another day of nearly 68% selling.
Backing up the idea of significant short-seller manipulations today is the very substantial MMD prior to 10am. Also, when comparing the NASDAQ chart below to the TSLA chart above, notice the exaggerated downward movements of TSLA when the NASDAQ is sinking and the lack of proportionally high upward movements when the NASDAQ is climbing. Look at the time between noon and 2pm when the NASDAQ was relatively flat but TSLA kept descending. Look after 2:10pm at the substantial climb of the NASDAQ but very little climb in TSLA. Look at the over 470,000 shares that traded hands in the final minute of market trading, a time when shorts can cover from their day-shorting without affecting the stock price. To my eye, the manipulations look significantly more intense than what you'd expect with 55% of the selling being tagged to shorts.

* Short interest may have grown today. While manipulating through selling in big chunks and then covering over a longer period of time has a negative effect on the SP, increasing short interest through short-selling without associated covering is even more effective at depressing the stock price. Unfortunately, Dusaniwsky has not been tweeting this past week.

* Somebody might know something bad about Tesla that we don't know. The aim of the shorts through their manipulations is to get longs doubting their research and speculating that someone knows more than you and they're selling. If big institutional investors were selling, however, volume would be higher than the relatively-tame 9.1 million shares we saw on such a volatile day today, so there's no evidence that this explanation holds any water. Some of the more astute VIN counters suggest that TSLA has already delivered more vehicles than in Q3, and we still have another 10 days to go in the quarter. Troy had suggested that Tesla would give Fremont employees the week of Christmas through New Years off. That break would reduce production, but it might take a week to move and deliver the remaining vehicles and so we'd see the deliveries still climbing through the end of the year.

Of the various explanations, I lean towards #1, with a touch of #2 thrown in.

Regarding news, the Editor-in-Chief of Bloomberg did both this video and wrote an excellent article to point out that Tesla has been running circles around the rest of the globe's automakers this year.

In another piece of news, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley suggested that Tesla should do the right thing and buy the closing GM plant in Ohio. The self-service aspect of this suggestion, of course, is that Tesla might then have to borrow money to make this acquisition possible and then both MS and GS would likely get some nice business selling the equity offerings. The problem is that interest rates are too high for Tesla compared to where they should be after a proper Moody's rating if TSLA does a bond offering, and the stock price is too low for a reasonable equity raise.

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The NASDAQ fell 1.63% today, a far cry from TSLA's 5% dip with no news to justify the dip

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Shorts are tagged with selling 55.32% of TSLA today. Anyone see that number as surprisingly low? One theory of mine is that shorts realized they had screwed up with the nearly 68% of selling number yesterday because it could call attention to their antics. Today may have been just as heavy but much shorting could have taken place at non-FINRA-monitored exchanges in order to avoid the wildly high numbers.

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Looking at the tech chart, you can see that after TSLA lost 60 in 5 trading sessions, the lower bollinger band is descending so steeply now it is no longer much support. On the other hand, the red 200 day moving average at 312.85 does look like it provided needed support today. Shorts have a habit of purposely trying to take out support levels, so let's see if we can close above 312 tomorrow. Much, of course depends upon the macros.

On days such as today, it's worthwhile to take a look at TSLA's trading over the past year. For the most part, trading has been running between upper and lower bollinger bands on a regular basis. Sometimes it is muscling the bands up or down as it roars along. Long periods of slow climbs or slow descents are uncommon. I ask myself on days such as today whether anything substantially negative has happened with the prospects for Tesla's future. My answer is typically "not really". Is the bottom about to fall out of the world's economy? Again, my answer is, "not really". The stock then bottoms out at some point and climbs back up to another tall vantage point. Someday, when the short interest is lower and Tesla has many quarters of profitable growth under its belt, things will be different. In the meantime, though, add some perspective to the dreads that are spoken and felt when we get 5 bad days in a row by looking through the rearview mirror at the past year's trading.

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Conditions:
* Dow down 464 (1.99%)
* NASDAQ down 108 (1.63%)
* TSLA 315.38, down 17.59 (5.28%)
* TSLA volume 9.1M shares
* Oil 46.26, up 0.38 (0.83%)
* Percent of selling by shorts: 55.32%
 
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