One thing misleading in all this is average loss vs worst case loss. There is a huge difference. Also how much below “EPA” (which we call 100% efficient) are drivers in ideal conditions.
So for example I might average 20-30% lower in winter, but my worst case loss could be 50% (e.g. below 10F, cold battery, wind, rain etc.) and best case (in winter) might only be a 10% loss. You have to plan a bit around worse than expected. Because weather forecasts are not perfect nor is traffic. For me, bitter cold might only occur 3 total weeks a winter.
So for example I might average 20-30% lower in winter, but my worst case loss could be 50% (e.g. below 10F, cold battery, wind, rain etc.) and best case (in winter) might only be a 10% loss. You have to plan a bit around worse than expected. Because weather forecasts are not perfect nor is traffic. For me, bitter cold might only occur 3 total weeks a winter.