Deep Dive 1/3/2019 Sandy Munro Podcast with Autoline

[farzyness]

I haven't quite finished this episode yet, but the amount of information regarding Model 3, Tesla, competitors, manufacturing, components, etc. is so vast in here so far that I really think it warrants its own thread. It has been a great pleasure listening so far.

My biggest take away - Sandy thinks there's an EASY 20% reduction in cost available to Tesla today. This is on top of existing margins that he calculates at 18% at the base, and 30%+ at the top end.

In addition, he thinks the China gigafactory will absolutely demolish the competition.

Discuss!

 

[Sudre]

Not all the way thru but when he keeps going on and on about building like the others (42.15) I have to ask why that is a great opinion when (as far as US companies) Ford is the only one that has not gone bankrupt and I have concerns for them in the future. Why would Elon want to build stuff like them and go bankrupt?

You do nor innovate IMO by coping the next guy. Sure you might rethink some process that were already thought out but in the long run, if you do it yourself, there might be a way to actually rethink the mold after making those same mistakes that leads to a better mouse trap.

Munro, to me, sounds like a guys who wants Tesla to pay him for body design critiques and Elon is not interested in doing anything the old way. That does not mean at some point Tesla will not discover that one or two ways of doing things are just the best way for particular function. But hey, the old way of making electric motors sure would have been the wrong direction. I am pretty darn sure that Munro would not have change the old school design at all. Too expensive to redesign in his opinion but BOY does he find it cool now. He's really good at being a backseat driver.

and putting out videos on how things where made.

 

[nursebee]

I heard 20% deduction in China factory, not everywhere.

 

[Takumi]

22:43 - Motor Comparison

Tesla Model 3 (Halbach array)
Cost: $754.14
Weight (kg): 46.1

BMW i3
Cost: $841.54
Weight (kg): 48.37

Chevy Bolt
Cost: $836.44
Weight (kg): 51.49

Strengths:
Bolt - Take existing car and put in EV components to get it to market ASAP.
i3 - Carbon fiber, welding two different types of aluminum
Tesla - Everything else!

Model 3 crash test results are the same with or without the battery.

53:00 - Tesla Superbottle! Epitomizes the difference between legacy automakers and Tesla.

 

[weak_pig]

What do you guys think about Munro's criticism about the heavy body parts?

 

[Takumi]

What do you guys think about Munro's criticism about the heavy body parts?

He's probably right, but at this point I think it's better to be safe than sorry. I'd rather have it over-engineered than under-engineered.

Take away is that Tesla can add lightness to improve it. The Model 3 they benchmark now will certainly not be the Model 3 the competitor's products will be competing against.

 

[nursebee]

What do you guys think about Munro's criticism about the heavy body parts?

It seemed to be a very balanced discussion of the various EV cars. He comes from the right background. I do not know the counter to his argument. His points seem worthwhile to consider. Not anything to make me consider selling shares.

 

[Heimdallr]

What do you guys think about Munro's criticism about the heavy body parts?

Probably fair criticism, especially when Elon Musk acknowledged this and apparently fired the person responsible for the body design. Doesn't really matter as Model 3 is by far the best car in its category overall and it just goes to show that there is still ample room for improvement.

 

[Vitold]

Probably fair criticism, especially when Elon Musk acknowledged this and apparently fired the person responsible for the body design. Doesn't really matter as Model 3 is by far the best car in its category overall and it just goes to show that there is still ample room for improvement.

Elon never said that he fired the body guy -Munro said that. I would not read much into a third person account whos salary depends on ‘other people being wrong’.

 

[Sudre]

I don't think Munro has any clue about fire venting for large under the car battery parks much less crash testing to protect a large under the car battery pack that might ignite in a collision. If a few of the Model S pack fires could have been prevented with the Model 3 structure concept then maybe it would have been worth the over design. That is my only point about Munro being way out of his depth. Munro would NEVER add protection to a gas tank to prevent it from catastrophic failure. That would just be wasted money and time on the line.

He WOULD fake the emissions test if it were possible to cut costs. I mean I am sure he took apart/looked into one of those cars that were doing just that and either he was too stupid to discover it or actually thought it was ingenious and said nothing. I mean really? The ingenious creation of an impossible powerful diesel engine with great mpg putting out low emissions and he did not even take peak? Riigghhttt.....

 

[RED MDL3]

Regarding the battery structure not necessary to meet crash tests goals, I wonder if the ability to relatively easy process for exchanging battery packs had an influence.

 

[Vitold]

Regarding the battery structure not necessary to meet crash tests goals, I wonder if the ability to relatively easy process for exchanging battery packs had an influence.

Good point, Tesla is free to innovate and come up with new battery arrangements regardless of body structure.

 

[kengchang]

I recall from early on from somewhere that Tesla designed Model 3 to NOT USE battery pack as structure integrity unlike S/X.

 

[Pluto]

In the 2nd quarter earnings call, Elon Musk said this about the Model 3 body:

Yeah, we can really simplify the body shop, man. Wow. And there's a lot that we can really easily improve like design to manufacturing and changing some of the joining approaches that we use and actually making the car lighter, cheaper and better and actually stabler. Yeah, it's really, safe already, but yeah.

That would’ve been around May, so after Munro was started tearing apart the car.

 

[SPadival]

This image of the wheel well tells me that Munro is right. There are 8 10 different pieces of metal welded / joined together.

 

[heltok]

What do you guys think about Munro's criticism about the heavy body parts?

Some people think
I don’t understand why X -> X is stupid

I think
I don’t understand why X -> someone probably knows something I don’t know

 

[e-FTW]

Sandy and the Bloomberg guy are clearly bullish on Tesla. Big fans. Not sure what folks have an issue with. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[kengchang]

Sandy and the Bloomberg guy are clearly bullish on Tesla. Big fans. Not sure what folks have an issue with. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I certainly don't get bull sentiment from Bloomberg guy.

 

[Electroman]

That Bloomberg guy seemed like a clown when he talked about how the competition will easily stifle Tesla's growth... and then again about debt and such..

 

[nwdiver]

Kinda funny and frustrating that they got the hard stuff right and the easy stuff wrong.